Ready Capital - Earnings Call - Q1 2020
May 11, 2020
Transcript
Speaker 0
Thank you for standing by. This is the conference operator. Welcome to the Ready Capital Corporation First Quarter twenty twenty Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, all participants are in listen only mode and the conference is recorded. After the presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions.
I would now like to turn the conference over to Andrew Alpern, Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead.
Speaker 1
Thank you, operator, and good morning, and thanks to those of you on the call for joining us this morning. Some of our comments today will be forward looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Such statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from what we expect. Therefore, you should exercise caution in interpreting and relying on them. We refer you to our SEC filings for a more detailed discussion of the risks that could impact our future operating results and financial condition.
During the call, we will discuss our non GAAP measures, which we believe can be useful in evaluating the company's operating performance. These measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for our financial results prepared in accordance with GAAP. A reconciliation of these measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure is available in our first quarter twenty twenty earnings release and our supplemental information. This morning, we issued a press release with the presentation of our results along with our supplemental financial information presentation. These materials can be found in the Investor Relations section of the Ready Capital website and have been filed with the SEC.
We plan to file our first quarter twenty twenty ten Q this evening. I will now turn it over to Tom Capacity, our CEO.
Speaker 2
Thanks, Andrew, and good morning. We appreciate you joining the call in what are unprecedented and challenging times. We hope that you and your loved ones are safe and healthy. The safety of our employees remains the main focus and since March 16, we have worked remotely across our four corporate locations in The U. S.
Without disruption to our operations. Our first quarter results primarily reflect a pre COVID operating environment with the exception of certain quarter end fair value adjustments and the implementation of CECL. Andrew will take you through quarterly results and CECL methodology later. I'd like to focus my remarks on where our business is today and why Ready Capital diversified model is positioned to weather the current economic environment and prosper during the recovery. Now entering this period of volatility, the combination of multifaceted business strategy, a well capitalized balance sheet due to our capital raising activities in the 2019 and the highly diversified nature of our small balance loan strategy with low relative exposure company to withstand the initial shocks of a closed economy.
This is reflected in lower book value erosion of 10% relative to our large balance commercial peers or more highly leveraged residential mortgage REITs. Moreover, 88% of the decrease was due to non cash CECL reserves and the mark to market decline of MSR and CMBS assets. In phase one of the COVID recession, we initiated a sequential three pronged focus on liquidity, meaning successfully meeting all margin calls to date, book value preservation through preemptive asset management, offering forbearance to 10% of our borrowers to date and profitability with an emphasis on our three government sponsored businesses, which I'll discuss below. In Phase two, which we believe will be a prolonged economic recovery as the COVID restrictions ease, our all weather business strategy of acquiring distressed small balance commercial or SBC loans, along with gain on sale income from our government sponsored lending businesses and gradual reemergence of SBC direct Lending provide a path to profitability at higher post COVID ROEs. In the commercial real estate lending segments, which include our stabilized fixed rate and floating bridge loan products, originations remain minimal as we remain highly disciplined in the deployment of capital.
These lending segments face two current challenges. First is the difficulty in underwriting property cash flows in the uncertain environment. Second is the dislocation in the capital markets making securitization execution difficult. Accordingly, we shifted focus from front office production to proactive asset management and book value preservation for which we repurpose staff. The current portfolio consists of $4,200,000,000 of loans with pre COVID weighted average LTVs of 60%.
This low loan to value squares well with our 2020 forecast for SBC property price declines of 5% to 10%, which correlates to a 5% projected decline in residential home prices. As of today, 90% of the portfolio is contractually current compared to 97% at year end. We will continue to proactively work with borrowers to help them get through the challenges presented by COVID, working to find mutually beneficial solutions. In our government sponsored lending segments, which includes SBA seven, Freddie Mac's small balance multifamily and residential mortgage banking, lending volumes are strong. These business require modest capital to operate and generate healthy gain on sale revenue.
Our SBA lending segment continues to originate seven loans to businesses that remain operational and the secondary market remains open and will benefit from inclusion in the pending Fed's TALF program. In our normal seven activities in addition to our normal seven activities, Ready Capital has been active in the Treasury's Paycheck Protection Program or PPP, which provides for forgivable loans to small businesses in need. As one of 14 SBA approved non bank lenders, when Congress passed the legislation in early April, we committed to do everything we could to provide financial support to small business owners across America during a time when they need it most. Many small businesses we interact with nationally were likely not to have been accepted in round one of PPP as traditional bank lenders generally focused clients and large businesses. In our signing on to the program, we did not prioritize existing customers or new customers.
Our mission was and remains to help as many true small businesses as possible, such as local delis, nail salons and local shop owners. The challenge of underwriting these smaller borrowers was significant and often dealt with changing program requirements. However, from the start, our goal is to help the smallest of the small without prejudice. In round one of PPP, Ready Capital approved approximately 40,000 applications approaching $3,000,000,000 While there have been some challenges outside our control that have caused some delays in the distribution of funds, we have facilitated the funding of $2,100,000,000 through last Friday and are actively working through the remaining population to disperse funds as quickly as possible. Ready Capital was in a unique position not only of having more PPP loan applications to fund than any other financial institution in round one, but also the smallest average balance with 50% under $25,000 and over 20% comprising sole proprietors.
Now activity in our Freddie Mac Multifamily segment remains elevated above prior year's level due to the decline in the ten year treasury to 70 basis points, making Freddie's SBL rates more competitive with banks rates tied to more inelastic deposit rates. Year to date, we have closed approximately $200,000,000 with a current money up pipeline in excess of $175,000,000 We expect with rates down nearly 50 basis points that origination levels will continue to remain elevated. Our residential mortgage banking segment, which continues to perform well despite economic uncertainty, is benefiting from refinancing volume from the first quarter decline in the ten year U. S. Treasury.
The quarterly $691,000,000 in first quarter volume was supported by a record $317,000,000 in March, topped by April production of $422,000,000 With demand in excess of production capacity, margins have remained elevated, which is reflected in the $9,000,000 quarterly increase in net mortgage banking income. In March, Ginnie Mae and the FHFA instructed servicers to implement mandatory six month forbearance on existing mortgage backed securities for which the servicer must continue to advance various amounts of principal and interest in corporate expenses. To reduce the advance burden, Ginnie Mae announced a servicer advance facility and the GSEs curtailed the advance obligation from twelve to four months. As of April month end, approximately 1% of our loans were in forbearance below national averages, and we believe we have adequate liquidity to meet peak projected forbearance. As some of our long term shareholders may beginnings were rooted a decade ago in the acquisition of over $5,000,000,000 in distressed small balance commercial loans post the last recession.
We believe that the current economic climate will lead to opportunities that leverage that skill set. These distressed acquisitions typically lead to higher ROEs and require minimal fixed overhead. We will continue to increase liquidity so that we are able we are in a position to take advantage of the opportunities as they arise. In addition to the continued operations of the business, management of liquidity and a reduction of mark to market liabilities remains important. As of May 8, the company had total liquidity of approximately $100,000,000 consisting of cash and availability committed warehouse lines.
Additionally, unencumbered assets of $296,000,000 may provide additional liquidity as we work to pledge them to existing facilities or selectively market for sale. Since the start of the COVID pandemic, the company has met all obligations related to its mark to market liabilities. These obligations, which consist of margin calls and additional funds needed to roll short term repurchase obligations, have totaled $96,000,000 In addition to liquidity management, we have focused our efforts on reducing short term liabilities, which has included selling securities when pricing levels have been favorable. Since the December 31 balance sheet, we have reduced the net settlement amount of our short term repo 35% to $191,000,000 We will continue efforts to reduce risk in the portfolio and continue to evaluate capital raising efforts to fund growth opportunities. Finally, I would like to discuss the status of our loan portfolio and funding sources.
Unlike our large balance peers, our loan portfolio is granular with strong collateral coverage. The current $4,200,000,000 portfolio held for investment consists of over 4,500 loans with an average balance of approximately $900,000 99% of the portfolio are first liens with a 60% average loan to value. Further exposure to COVID sensitive sectors is relatively modest. In our SBC segment collateralized by investor owned properties where we have invested 52% of shareholders' equity, retail of 21% and hospitality 6% of our total gross loan portfolio. The average balance of our SBC retail exposure is only $1,500,000 reflective of the company's limited exposure to malls and big box retail.
In our SBA segment, where we've invested approximately 10% of shareholders' equity, total exposure to hospitality and restaurants is approximately 40%. On the funding side, 64% of the loan portfolio is funded with non recourse securitizations and the earliest maturity of our corporate debt is April 2021. In May, the new issue market for commercial mortgage backed securities and CRE collateralized loan obligations is gradually reopening. As such, in addition to this channel, we are exploring ways to fund our existing warehouse lines on a non mark to market term basis, including delevering through asset sales. We continue to focus substantial resources on proactive asset management and have robust procedures in place for monitoring watch list assets and migration of loans between risk buckets.
These efforts include processing hardship and forbearance requests, frequent communication and updates from borrowers, lender updates, reporting and liquidity management. We currently use a risk model which buckets loans in categories between one and five. Buckets four and five represent the riskiest assets in the portfolio and currently comprise only 9% of total collateral, including those supporting unconsolidated mortgage backed security positions. So with that, I'll now turn it over to Andrew.
Speaker 1
Thank you, Tom. Beginning with earnings, our results were significantly impacted by the current COVID economic climate. GAAP losses were $0.98 per share. The quarterly loss was driven by a $35,000,000 reserve related to the Q1 implementation of CECL, a $12,000,000 mark to market decline in held for sale CMBS and a $16,000,000 decline in the valuation of our residential mortgage servicing rights. Core earnings were $01 per share.
Core earnings has been adjusted to exclude both the CECL reserve and the decline in residential MSR values, but includes the mark to market loss on CMBS and specific reserves on nonperforming loan collateral. Absent these two items, core earnings would have been $0.32 per share. Beginning on 01/01/2020, we adopted CECL, the new accounting standard, which requires us to estimate and record a noncash provision for future credit losses against all loans in the portfolio not otherwise subject to fair value accounting. To determine the CECL reserve, we supplemented our historical track record of zero losses with securitized loan data licensed from TREP. Although the Trep data is not a perfect match given the small balance focus of our business, we were able to tailor the model to be insightful into our portfolio.
The CECL reserve on the March 31 balance sheet contains two components, which include the initial reserve on January 1 and the change in that reserve on March 31. The impact of COVID-nineteen has caused this allowance to increase during the first quarter, reflecting current economic environment. On January 1, we recorded initial reserve of $6,600,000 or a $0.13 per share reduction in book value. At March 31, our assumptions on indicators changed significantly, resulting in an additional $35,000,000 reserve or $0.68 loss per share. To be clear, I want to make the point that this is a noncash allowance.
The portfolio subject to CECL did not incur any losses during the quarter, and we suspect that over time our CECL reserve may migrate back to levels consistent with our initial implementation on January 1. The significant decline in the value of our available for sale CMBS securities was in part driven by the current liquidity in the market inflamed by periods of poor sell in. Based on our analysis, we believe the underlying collateral will support valuations above these distressed marks as liquidity returns to the markets over time. In fact, we have selectively sold a handful of positions after quarter end at average premiums of 21% to the March 30 one month end mark. The $16,000,000 decline in the market value of our residential MSRs was driven by the historic low
S. Treasury and an increase in our CPR assumptions, which was mitigated by industry leading 40% retention rate. We believe that in comparison to prior rate rallies, the convexity profile of our current MSR book is superior due to the low absolute level of the ten year U. S. Treasury and limited production and servicing capacity in the mortgage banking industry.
Near term, this limits further downside with prospects for improved valuation even with modest rate increases. Longer term, the dislocation in the mortgage banking industry from COVID-nineteen and GMFS' eligibility as an MSR purchaser from all three agencies presents attractive distressed MSR acquisition opportunities. Away from CECL accounting and the MSR declines, profitability from net interest margin, gain on sale revenue and mortgage banking activities continued to be robust. Interest income increased $5,000,000 quarter over quarter. Gain on sale revenue in the '7 and Freddie Mac businesses totaled $2,400,000 supported by strong volumes and stabilized sale premiums.
Mortgage banking income reached record levels due to high demand and elevated margins. On the balance sheet, recourse leverage is 2.8x. The quarterly increase is due to draws on available borrowing basis and a reduction in stockholders' equity, primarily due to noncash CECL reserves and unrealized losses on fair value assets. The portfolio subject to mark to market liabilities totals $1,500,000,000 including $775,000,000 of bridge loans and $200,000,000 of fixed rate loans, both slated for securitization before COVID impacted the new issuance markets. Book value per share declined $1.6 to $14.52 per share.
This decline was driven by CECL, unrealized losses and the quarterly dividend. As we have done in previous quarters, the supplemental deck provided this morning includes summary information on the company's earnings profile, various operating segments and key financial metrics. Instead of taking you through the deck, I would like to draw your attention to Slides three and five. Slide three outlines the various ways in which our business has been affected by COVID and the strategies we are undertaking to ensure the long term health of the business. Slide five provides additional insight into the CECL reserve implemented in the quarter.
Before turning it back to Tom, I would like to echo his previous comments. I hope you are all safe and sound and my thoughts are with all who have been impacted by the COVID pandemic. Tom?
Speaker 2
Even in these unprecedented times, Ready Capital continues to originate and deploy capital across our diverse platform. As discussed, we continue to successfully navigate Phase one of the COVID recession with adequate liquidity and small relative declines in book value. In subsequent quarters, we will strategically position company for Phase two of the COVID recovery, where our all weather business model providing for potential net interest income from acquisition of distressed SBC assets, along with gain on sale income from our capital light government sponsored lending segments represents unique earnings potential. It will certainly take time for the country to emerge from this crisis, but our focus will remain on the areas of the business we can control and we work as a team to navigate and emerge in a position that builds on past success. We appreciate your patience and support and hope everyone remains healthy and safe.
So with that operator, we'll now open it up for questions.
Speaker 0
Thank you. We'll now begin the question and answer session. The first question comes from Tim Hayes with B. Riley FBR. Go ahead.
Speaker 3
Hey, good morning, Tom and Andrew. Hope you're both doing well. My first question, Andrew, you mentioned some select asset sales so far in the second quarter. Can you maybe just size that up for us what you've been selling and what type of discounts to your basis and maybe just how you've been able to deleverage in light of those asset sales so far?
Speaker 1
Tim, how are doing? The majority of the sales is focused in the CMBS book. They've been selective sales, meaning we are not in a position of fore selling any parts of the balance sheet, at least today. It's been relatively small, focused on one particular series thus far. It's totaled around $35,000,000 in sales.
And the, as we said in the script, there's they were sold at premiums roughly 20% above the March month end balance sheet mark, but closer to our historical basis. Securities in the portfolio, including QSIPs and whole loans. And if we see pricing that we believe to be accretive to the business, we may choose to further sell down parts of both of those books.
Speaker 3
Okay. Got it. So far, not too much on that front. So I guess the second part of that question was just kind of a quarter to date update on leverage at this point. But it sounds like maybe not haven't moved too much since period end?
Speaker 1
Yes. I mean, the 2.8x leverage at March month end is a little deceiving. We had material increases in our available for sale loan portfolios in GMFS and Freddie. Both those are financed at 100%. So there's that number is going to fluctuate.
The secured borrowings number is going to fluctuate a lot based on how those two businesses perform. What I will say is, as we are rolling repos, haircuts are getting slightly wider, thus delevering that book. And we are we'll continue to explore ways, whether it's through selective pay downs here and there or taking securities off of repo or trying to convert current mark to market liabilities into sort of term non recourse facilities, we are going to continue to utilize those tools to delever the recourse portion of our balance sheet.
Speaker 3
Okay. That's helpful. And then moving over to just the forbearance activity you've seen, I guess 10% of the commercial book in forbearance so far, 7% on the resi side. What measures have you taken to provide forbearance? And how have you seen requests continue to increase in May?
I'm just curious if there's like an internal estimate of where you might see these forbearance rates go on either the commercial or resi side?
Speaker 4
Yes. So
Speaker 1
Tim, we actually have Adam Zausner on the call with us today. He runs credit for all of Ready Capital. So he's probably best positioned to answer that question. So I'm going to turn it over to him.
Speaker 5
Great.
Speaker 6
Hey, Tim. How are you, Tim? We continue to proactively work with our clients to help get them through these challenges. Client discussions have been collaborative, we recognize that operational and cash flow disruptions, especially in the hospitality and retail properties, given the nationwide shutdowns. Not the fault of our clients, right.
But as Tom and Andrew mentioned, the 10% that are currently evaluating the hardship request will likely execute those forbearance agreements, most of them are three months. Our team of asset managers continues to evaluate loan by loan. So as COVID-nineteen impacts operations and cash flow, in general, we're just looking to ensure that the collateral is well positioned during this period of disruption. We may allow sponsors to utilize reserves for debt service payments and some other creative things. But in general, call it between 1015% is what are kind of potentially going to execute forbearances on.
There's 4,500 loans in our portfolio. As you know, majority of this is small balance. So we do expect that it could increase slightly, but I think towards the March, early April is where we saw the biggest wave. So we're just getting through that now working for servicers to get them executed.
Speaker 2
Actually, I just want to add one thing add them to that. In our script, there was a reference to forbearance on the GMFS side. It's not 1%, was 7%, but that's consistent with on the residential MSRs. That's consistent with the current national average and we have adequate liquidity currently to fund those advances.
Speaker 3
Tom, do you have an estimate I know Fannie Mae put an estimate out there for where they see forbearance rates going, which I guess is kind of at the high end of what Adam's comments were broadly. But just curious if you have an estimated capital need for those advances, if we do kind of hit that estimate?
Speaker 2
Sorry, estimate for GMFS as it relates to their peak projected advances?
Speaker 5
Yes, correct.
Speaker 2
Are you talking about the market? Yes. Andrew, do you want to add? I think our for their market, Southeast, it's probably more like in the 15% area. So Andrew, do you have a view in terms of the
Speaker 0
sizing for the liquidity? Yes.
Speaker 1
Tim, it's going to be hard to put an estimate out there based on just the level of uncertainty in the number. So we're probably going to hold off in putting out an estimate at this time.
Speaker 3
Okay. That's fine. I know it's a fluid situation. So we'll just look for updates as they come across. But that's it for me for now.
I'm going hop back in the queue. But I appreciate you guys taking my questions and stay well.
Speaker 2
Thanks, Tim.
Speaker 1
Thanks, Tim. You too.
Speaker 0
The next question comes from Steve Delaney with GMP Securities. Please go ahead.
Speaker 7
Good morning, Tom and Andrew. And first, thank you for your strong and patriotic support of the PPP program. A question on that is how much continuing opportunity beyond the $3,000,000,000 in reported applications do you see? And can you disclose what the fee revenue opportunity was for Ready Capital and participating in that program? Thanks.
Speaker 2
Andrew, I can comment on the program more broadly, and then maybe you could talk about the second part of Steve's question. But as it relates to the PPP program, it has evolved very significantly based on feedback from small businesses And so round one, when as everybody knows, went very quickly. Round two, I think Andrew has around 40% left and it's been much slower. And a lot of that had to do with the concern that you may have seen in the broader press about the methodology for the forgiveness application of forgiveness, which we're still waiting, which were pending guidance from the SBA.
So I think that significantly slowed down the volume in round two, in large part because of the conundrum of a small business that may have to retain staff today, but not sure if they could reopen tomorrow. So Andrew, I just made that broad observation in terms of the program. Maybe you could comment on terms of the costs involved in this program.
Speaker 1
Yes. Steve, so what I will say is in the program, the gross fees that are prescribed in the program docs are going to get shared amongst a variety of partners. Those include agents who referred loans. They will include financing costs, which include both the cost of the carry as well as some split of the upfront economics on the fee as well as split on the fee in the event we have sold loans. So it's hard for me to pin down the exact number just given that the population is moving, and the methods in which we've chosen to fund these loans is diverse.
But what I can say, Steve, is I think the gross fees will be materially cut down to the net economics that ultimately result on the Ready Capital Q2 income statement.
Speaker 7
Got you. Well, you did the right thing and hopefully, it wasn't about a profit opportunity. You did the right thing and hopefully, you'll at least breakeven or make a little bit out of it for your efforts. We appreciate it.
Speaker 1
Follow-up go question is
Speaker 7
ahead, Andrew. I'm sorry.
Speaker 1
Sorry. Just to clarify, I do expect Capital will earn revenue through this program. So I don't want to give the impression it's been a sort of a breakeven effort. Based on some of the information we put out there, one can deduce that gross fees on that population of loans is in excess of $100,000,000 That $100,000,000 what I'm saying is going to be materially reduced over the next when we get to the final numbers, but certainly don't want to give you the impression that it's a breakeven number for us.
Speaker 7
Okay. Thanks for that clarification. You mentioned you had remaining short term repo of $190,000,000 I assume that was a March 31 figure. Two questions on that. I mean, you give us an updated I think you have sold some you mentioned you'd sold some securities $35,000,000 Can you give us a current up to date figure for short term repo and just generally describe what the nature of the collateral would be underneath that repo?
Thanks.
Speaker 1
Yes. So the majority of securities we have in repo include retained bonds from our fixed rate program, Freddie Mac securities from our SBL program and some selective bonds we've acquired over the years. The $191,000,000 is a net settlement amount today. So the gross loan amount net whatever margin we paid since the last roll. As I said earlier, we have selectively paid down or sold certain securities, which has also further reduced that number.
What I'll say is that, that number has decreased through April, just due to haircuts widening, in when those securities roll. And so the number the net number probably is around $175,000,000 today, just based on the delevering in April from the natural rolls.
Speaker 7
Thank you both for your comments.
Speaker 0
Thanks, Steve.
Speaker 6
Thanks, Steve.
Speaker 0
The next question comes from Jade Rahmani with KBW. Please go ahead.
Speaker 4
Thank you very much and appreciate your time and consideration. Hope you're all well and in good health. Wanted to ask just high level, do you expect Ready Capital to be profitable for the next for the year, perhaps excluding the non cash charters in the first quarter?
Speaker 1
Yes. So Jade, obviously, the noncash charges in the first quarter were significant. Absent those, we do suspect and it's clearly very uncertain, and a lot of it will depend how the economic recovery unfolds. But given strong gain on sale business activity, given PPP economics and given our projections on where we think sort of portfolio defaults will go, we do believe that Ready Capital will be profitable in 2020.
Speaker 4
Okay. And the $100,000,000 in fee earnings that you referenced, was that with respect to SBA originations and that would be a gross revenue number. Can you give any sense for what the net profit contribution might be?
Speaker 1
Yes. So to be clear, the $100,000,000 I referenced is specifically related to the PPP. So within the PPP program, the gross fees, on those originations range from 5% to 1% depending on loan size, 5% being paid for loans that are under $350,000,000 Now based on Tom's comments earlier, the majority of our portfolio falls in that bucket. So the gross fee earned is going to be that 5% on the balance of PPP loans originated. Now there are prescribed agent fees in the program that come right off the top if that loan was referred into Ready Capital.
And then there are various ways in which that fee after the agent fee is paid is being allocated amongst all the partners who are contributing within our population to get those funds in the hands of the small business. So that's how that number is going to come down off of that $100,000,000 number I referenced. It's hard for me to pin down at this time what that net number is going to be. So I'm going to hold off on commenting there. But I suspect it's going be in the range of, let's call it, 5% to 50% of that number.
Speaker 4
The $100,000,000 is that a fee revenue number? Or is that an originated balance under the PPP program?
Speaker 1
That is a fee revenue number.
Speaker 4
Okay. So potentially earnings from that program in the second quarter could be 35% of the $100,000,000
Speaker 1
That's correct.
Speaker 4
Okay. Thank you for that. Can you go through a range of perhaps cash sources and uses for the balance of the year and if you expect the company to be cash flow positive?
Speaker 1
Yes. So certainly, we've made the decision over the last six weeks to really curtail any lending or investing opportunities that require use of capital. So we have not originated bridge or fixed loans during this period of time and suspect that we will continue to be highly selective in when we choose to do so over the next few months until we have more certainty in the economy. Our other business segments are those gain on sale businesses. They don't require any capital.
The seven is cash neutral, Freddie's cash neutral, GMFS is cash neutral. And so our active lending activities are not requiring use of the balance sheet. Continued uses of cash will include fixed operating expenses, including our employees, rent, things like that, which we will continue to adjust and rightsize to the business activities and then management of our mark to market liabilities. On the sources side, it's going to continue to be revenue generated from active lending segments as well as just the normal P and I from the company. Additionally, in the event we see the right opportunities to do so, we will evaluate selling certain parts of our portfolio to generate liquidity.
Speaker 4
Okay. Thanks for that. In terms of margin call risk, could you give a number with respect to the value of loan balances subject to margin calls? And secondly, if there's also any cash management triggers within the CLOs that you've issued?
Speaker 1
Yes. So right now, we have around $1,500,000,000 of loans on warehouse. So that's the number that's of exposure there in the loan portfolio. What I'll say is our lenders have been very constructive in our conversations and continue to be supportive of their involvement in the SBC space. Maybe I'll turn it over to Adam to talk a little bit about how we're managing those relationships and then your question on the CLO.
Speaker 6
Yes. How are you? So yes, I mean, think in regards to our warehouse lenders, certainly transparency is key, walking them through loan level assessment that we have of each of the assets on the line. So we've been having really good dialogue with our partners, a lot of good Q and A regarding updates that we're getting from clients, our thoughts around value of the asset. So certainly, we're going to maintain that and produce whatever is required from our warehouse partners to help through this challenging time.
In regards to your question on the CLO, as you know, these loans are there's a lot of structuring that goes into these loans, there's cash flow suites, there's interest reserves. So depending on the situation of the asset managers go through, there could be situations where there could be a cash flow sweep and we're applying the funds to debt service to make the monthly payment.
Speaker 0
Hello?
Speaker 1
Hey, Jade. Sorry. There are no cash triggers in our deal.
Speaker 4
Okay. Thank you for that. Just lastly on the dividend. I'm not sure if you could comment high level expectations or just policy leanings. And if you could specifically say whether you believe the management and board's preference would be toward suspending the dividend for conservatism sake or to pay dividends through stock pay stock dividends?
Personally, I think suspending the dividend would be preferable than stock dividend, but wanted to hear what you are thinking.
Speaker 2
Andrew, why don't you this was obviously a very important Board topic. So Andrew, why don't you kind of walk through Jade's question regarding the dividend?
Speaker 1
Yes. So Jade, in terms of a dividend amount, I think a lot of that is going to be dependent on the performance of the business. Rightsizing the dividend to taxable income as well as core performance is probably the path going forward. What I can say is we do not plan on issuing stock dividends going forward. Now I can't predict every event in the future, so that may change, but it is not our intention nor do we plan on issuing stock dividends in subsequent quarters.
With that being said, given our desire to maintain liquidity and even increase liquidity, I think we'll reevaluate or the Board will reevaluate the dividend amount as we get closer to quarter end, to see how the business has performed and to reset expectations of how the business will perform in the future. So although we can't put a number on it today, what I can say is, I do not anticipate stock dividends being part of it.
Speaker 4
Thank you very much for taking the questions.
Speaker 0
Thanks, Jade. The next question comes from Stephen Laws with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Speaker 8
Hi, good morning. Following up on the PPP as far as fundings that you've seen, are these loans that were round one overflow? Or how much of the fundings were actually new applications post round one?
Speaker 1
Yes. So thanks for the question. Our round two activities have been more muted than our round one efforts. So although that is subject to change given that the velocity of round two funds has been much, much lower than round one. At this time, the amount of round two applications we have taken in is much, much lower than our round one activity.
Speaker 8
Great. And then I think in the prepared remarks, said $3,000,000,000 approved and $2,100,000,000 funded, which I assume is getting us to that roughly $105,000,000 at 5% on the gross revenue contribution. Should we expect the remaining $95,000,000 or an incremental $45,000,000 of potential gross revenue to fund this quarter? Or how much of the remaining $900,000,000 approved do you expect to fund?
Speaker 1
Yes, we expect to fund a large percentage of that. There will be some fallout from the population, but we suspect we will fund the majority of that population over the upcoming days.
Speaker 8
Great. And then lastly, I think on that topic that I have, so we know the fees you're entitled to at least at the gross level. When do you actually receive those fees and they hit your balance sheet as cash?
Speaker 1
Yes, it's probably going to be forty five to sixty days out. There are some forms that need to be filed with the SBA. There's other arrangements we've made with our counterparties in this transaction that affect the timing of that, but
Speaker 6
I think forty five to sixty days is a good estimate.
Speaker 8
And I guess as a follow-up to that, just to be sure you don't they don't receive their cut of the fees until you do, correct? You don't have to advance or front any of that.
Speaker 9
Correct.
Speaker 8
Great. Okay. Fantastic. Shifting to let me hit on advances real quick. Do you have a breakdown of your advance obligations across the GSEs and any non agency or maybe a better preferred way would be, how much of your interest in principal advances are on a scheduled versus actual basis?
Speaker 1
So I don't think we put out a go ahead, Tom.
Speaker 2
I was going to say just we haven't put out any specific quantitative analysis around each of the Fannie, Freddie, Ginnie, but Ginnie, you have to advance 80% of P and I and there is an availability of a facility for that. And then for Fannie and Freddie, there's they've curtailed the advance obligation on P and I to from twelve to four months. We feel if you size it up, let's say it doubles from the current seven. Have GMFS has availability under the current warehouse lines as well as the Ginnie Mae facility if it was required. So we feel comfortable in terms of the adequacy of liquidity for that on a peak advance basis.
And Andrew, if you'd add to that.
Speaker 6
No, nothing for me, Tom.
Speaker 8
Okay, great. And lastly, wanted to touch on the financing facilities. Appreciate the disclosure on Page 16 of your supplement. A number of maturities here in three twelve months, I believe. Do these have extensions your option?
Or can you talk about how those discussions on renewing those facilities are going? Or given the changes in the business, are there different facilities that you need to put in place to support the strength in the business lines you're seeing today and some of these other facilities maybe are no longer necessary? So any comments around additional color on Page 16 would be great.
Speaker 1
Yes. So it certainly depends facility by facility. There are certain facilities where it's at our option. There's other facilities where it's not. What I will say is that our talks to date with our existing lenders have been highly constructive and supportive.
We continue to believe that they are in the business of SBC in the SBC asset class long term. So we have not got indications that continued talks would not be positive. With that being said, our goal over time is to figure out ways in the absence of the new issuance market, which we hope will rebound shortly. But in the absence of that, exploring ways to move recourse debt to non recourse. And so we are continuing to explore what that may look like.
So that's sort of the lay of the land right now.
Speaker 8
Great. And one last question. On the residential mortgage origination business, maybe at the higher level, how much of those approvals are automated or even not fully automated, how much is recent developments going to impact the processing time line and how that pipeline is approved when you consider things like potential employment gaps or taking unemployment under one of these government programs or some other help that maybe would have been an instant approval type refi pre COVID is now something that's going to get kicked out in need of a one off approval. Any comments around impacts of that on processing the loan applications going forward?
Speaker 2
Yes. I think this is the data, which is go ahead.
Speaker 0
I'm I
Speaker 2
was going to
Speaker 1
say that
Speaker 2
in processing terms time industry wide, we did get guidance in terms of in the last two weeks from the GSEs on both how to process self verification of employment, given the obvious increase in unemployment. And secondly, the somewhat related the forbearance now being not a the forbearance accrual now being put on the back end of the loan deferred as opposed to being a payment shock in the at the end of the six month period. So I think that to answer your first question, it's let's say application times were maybe two weeks, now it's doubled on that basis. And as a result of that, the that will extend the timelines, reduce the production amount by very small amounts. But I will say that the most fascinating thing in all my years in this industry is the profitability on the production side due to the fact that the demand far exceeds the production capability of the mortgage banking industry.
And as a result, you're seeing that in the secondary the profit margins on new production have are up 2x to 5x depending upon the month, the week and the product type.
Speaker 8
That's great color. Thanks very much for that. Appreciate your time this morning.
Speaker 6
Thanks. Thanks.
Speaker 0
Next question comes from Crispin Love with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.
Speaker 5
Good morning, guys. Hope you're doing well and staying safe. So one question on loan acquisition. So you guys seem to be pretty bullish on loan acquisition opportunities. Do you think those opportunities will be 2020 events or likely more pronounced in 2021 as kind of the market kind of moves through what we're going through right now?
And then also, are there any specific areas in loan acquisitions where you expect to see the most opportunities?
Speaker 2
Yes, would just say to first answer the question, I would say it's really more of a it will unlike the last financial crisis, which was more driven by bank, as 800 banks had significant issues that required loan sales. This is more of a capital markets, non bank lending has taken a big slug of the SBC market. So I'd say the opportunity set will probably emerge late third quarter through 1Q twenty twenty one. And you'll see three channels. One will be the banks, obviously the a lot of the in particular hospitality and what have you will be affected on their balance sheets.
So we're already starting to see pools aggregate for sale there at discount. The second channel will be these non bank lenders on the transitional loan side. At the peak, I think we were tracking roughly over 200 lenders, including the large commercial mortgage REITs. And a significant chunk, maybe a third of those are in our wheelhouse in terms of loan size. So we're seeing a lot of potential sales on the transitional loan side at a discount.
And the third is SBA. A lot of SBA lenders that we think this recession will create a shakeout in some lenders that were relatively aggressive on underwriting. We were very conservative in terms of our expected losses versus some of our competitors. So we also see opportunities in the secondary market for SBA portfolios as well. So those three channels we expect to emerge probably starting in late 3Q through 4Q into 1Q twenty twenty one.
Speaker 5
Okay. Thanks. And then on the accounting treatment of the PPP loans, will all the net fees show up in net interest income or will they actually show up in the non interest income side of the income statement? And then also how long do you expect the loans to be on the balance sheet, the PPP loans?
Speaker 1
Hey, Chrisman. I think the majority of the economics will probably flow through the other bucket of the income statement. And we do not suspect to carry much of production on the balance sheet at all. So a very small portion will retain on the balance sheet. The majority of will be sold off balance sheet.
Speaker 5
Okay, great. And then can you just talk a little bit about the of the health of the small businesses in portfolio? Do you have any data on kind how many have closed temporarily for right now or how many are starting to reopen? And then also if any of the small business have actually closed permanently?
Speaker 2
Adam, you want to add?
Speaker 6
Yes. So anywhere from 20%, 25% to 50% of businesses are closed, right, obviously, like the restaurants that are having curbside pickup delivery remain open, majority of the hotels remain open. I'd say, we think the paycheck protection program is certainly going to help these businesses. And the SBA is also from a loss mitigation standpoint, they're automatically going to pay principal interest and fees for six months. And then after that, RCE Ready Capital is actually going be able to process three months of deferment without SBA approval, and then longer periods, if we go to the SBA.
But I'd say, we haven't heard of businesses that have shut down completely and will not come back. But there's still obviously a lot of uncertainty. In terms of businesses opening back up, obviously that's slowly happening as states are implementing some of the reopening. But I think the highlight, there's still a ton of uncertainty out there. And I think these government programs, we kind of have to wait to kind of see how that plays out.
But we do expect that these programs are going to help our clients significantly.
Speaker 2
Adam, one question. What were the two specific programs the SBA is rolling out? One is the emergency direct lending program, which they implement themselves and we obviously refer our borrowers to. What was the second one, the P and I deferrals?
Speaker 6
Yeah, well, one time was the economic injury disaster loan, obviously the PPP and then just the regular way deferments program. So as an SBA away, but it offers a three month deferment. Okay, thanks.
Speaker 0
Thanks. That's all helpful color.
Speaker 4
Sure.
Speaker 1
Thanks, Chris. The
Speaker 0
next question comes from Christopher Nolan, Ladenburg Thalmann. Please go ahead.
Speaker 9
Hey, guys. Hi, Christopher. The loan loss reserve, are you guys targeting a loan loss reserve ratio?
Speaker 1
No. So certainly, we're not targeting anything specific. We will continue to, one, evaluate loans on a specific basis. So Adam and his team are going through the portfolio on a continuous basis to identify sort of problem or watch list loans that warrant specific reserves. And then in addition to that, we will continue to use the TReP data and some of the assumptions around the more macroeconomic climate to drive sort of the general CECL reserve.
So although we're not targeting a specific number, I do suspect that as things move around and as we get more certainty on the portfolio, whether it be on the downside or the upside, the reserve number will change. Based on the current performance of the loans that have been included in the CECL reserve as of March 31, as the economy reopens, I suspect that that reserve will revert back to a lower number. But it's hard to tell, just given the uncertainty in the general climate right now.
Speaker 6
The reserve ratio about go
Speaker 0
ahead please.
Speaker 5
Sorry, no, I was just
Speaker 6
going to stress that it would take a significant decline in collateral value to see losses on the portfolio, just given that the weighted average loan to value on our collateral is 60%. But obviously, certainly assessing case by case and the initial assessment that we did for Q1, obviously, there's going to be some follow-up to that as we get updates from our clients. But again, we feel that the portfolio is well protected, especially at these low leverage ratios and the structure that we have on this loan.
Speaker 9
I guess a follow-up question in terms of how well the loans are covered. If everything is closed, including courts and so forth, how do you guys intend to recover anything if there's no judicial process working at the moment?
Speaker 6
Yes, I think there's several.
Speaker 1
So I think some of the
Speaker 6
There's really several go ahead, Andrew. I'll follow-up.
Speaker 1
Adam, please. Yes,
Speaker 6
I think we're still several months away. These four the majority of hardship requests that are coming up, there's going to be for the majority of the three month forbearances. So we're really looking at three months these loans will remain current, the ones that are having some of these issues, whether it's business closures, have significant amount of non essential tenants in retail centers, the hospitality assets. We limited exposure to hospitality, but obviously those assets have fairly low occupancy right now. As the market starts to rebound, states open up, and we believe that in three months, call it July 1 through August is when to the extent that a sponsor is unable to make a payment post the forbearance period, that's when workouts could start.
Although we expect a limited amount given that we've got a lot of confidence in business plan. So in terms of courts opening, again, I think that's something that we're have to assess in three months from now. But currently, from a 60 plus delinquency standpoint, the portfolio was still right around 1%. So there's not many workouts in our portfolio right now where we're to have to run up against that. The limited issues that we've had in our portfolio, a handful of foreclosures that we've had through historical loan acquisitions, for instance, the court that we've spoken to, the process continues.
We have receivers in place. So the world hasn't stopped completely from a recovery standpoint. But again, just to highlight, I think that's really something that we're going be dealing with in three months eventually.
Speaker 9
Great. Final question is, what's your recourse leverage target or threshold, I should say, in terms of ratio?
Speaker 1
Yes. So historically, we've targeted two times. As I said earlier, this quarter was a little bit of an anomaly given material increases on gain on sale production corresponding with a significant reduction in stockholders' equity. So over time, our goal continues to target that two point zero times ratio. And the increases this quarter as the marks in the securities and the MSR and CECL revert to more normal levels, that will in part drive that ratio further down.
Speaker 9
Okay. So we should expect the recourse leverage ratio to drift downward rather than upward?
Speaker 1
Yes. It's our intent to always manage the business to that 2.0x. So we're actively taking steps to try and reduce that number. And surely, given that we have a large inventory of newly originated bridge and fixed rate product that was pretty far along in the securitization process, Should the new issuance markets open up, roughly $1,100,000,000 of assets on warehouse will immediately be converted into non recourse debt.
Speaker 9
Great. Okay. That's it for me guys. Thank you. Thanks a lot.
Speaker 0
This concludes the question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Thomas Stapasse, CEO for any closing remarks.
Speaker 2
Thank you for everybody's support during this challenging time and we look forward to next quarter's earnings call.
Speaker 0
This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating