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RESEARCH FRONTIERS INC (REFR)·Q4 2017 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 fee income was $279k, down sequentially from $488k in Q3, while FY 2017 fee income rose 22% to $1.509M; FY net loss improved 43% to $2.414M ($0.10/share) as expense reductions took hold .
- Management highlighted improving automotive royalties (higher S‑Class take rates, 14 Mercedes variants) and expects continued revenue growth in 2018, supported by cost reductions and broader OEM activity .
- Cash runway was extended via a $1.25M interest‑free loan (Feb 2018); burn rate ~$400k per quarter with runway to at least Q4 2019, contingent on revenue and receivable collections .
- Consensus Wall Street estimates for Q4 2017 were unavailable via S&P Global today; assessment of beat/miss versus Street could not be determined.*
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Expense discipline: “expenses in 2017 were down about $1.6 million or 29% compared to the prior year,” contributing to a fifth consecutive year of net loss reduction .
- Automotive traction: “AGC hit some quarterly record sales… we are now on 14 different model variants within Mercedes,” with rising Magic Sky Control take rates in S‑Class .
- Strategic licensing: New Gauzy license (Oct 2017) to broaden architectural reach and lower cost to customers; management “expects continued revenue growth… in 2018” .
What Went Wrong
- Q4 softness: Fee income fell to $279k (vs $488k in Q3); management cited temporary aircraft timing impacts alongside normal variability .
- Aircraft market: Slightly lower aircraft fee income in 2017 (timing of window deliveries), limiting diversification momentum in the quarter .
- Listing optics: Investor concerns around <$1 share price were discussed; while no NASDAQ notice had been received, potential reverse split options were mentioned as contingency .
Financial Results
FY totals and structure:
Notes:
- Q4 2017 vs prior quarter: fee income down 43% sequentially; EPS loss widened to $(0.03) from $(0.01) .
- Q4 2017 vs prior year: modest fee income increase vs Q4 2016, with smaller EPS loss $(0.03) vs $(0.06) .
Segment breakdown/KPIs: REFR operates a single segment (licensing); detailed segment revenue not disclosed. FY fee income drivers were primarily automotive, with marine, display, and architectural also contributing; aircraft was slightly lower YoY .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Our net loss this year was down… by more than 43%. This reduction… came from both revenue growth and expense reduction… revenues were up over 22% in 2017… we expect continued revenue growth… in 2018” — Joseph Harary, CEO .
- “AGC hit some quarterly record sales… noticeable uptick… Magic Sky Control option… now on 14 different model variants within Mercedes” .
- “Multiple OEMs… developed vehicles that are coming out using SPD‑SmartGlass technology… RFQs… especially in automotive… quite large” .
Q&A Highlights
- Cost/burn: Clarified distinction between internal cost cuts and lowering customer costs; ~$400k/qtr burn, with efficiency focus to profitability .
- Gauzy/architecture: Gauzy expected to generate SPD revenues in 2018; leveraging >50 certified laminators and PDLC experience .
- Automotive pipeline: Second OEM project remains active; management now points to “multiple OEMs” preparing SPD vehicles .
- Financing: $1.25M non‑interest loan converts at market price with warrants at a premium; targeted long‑term investors; extended runway .
- Listing: No NASDAQ notice; reverse split cited as potential tool if needed; expectation of positive developments within six months .
Estimates Context
- Wall Street consensus for Q4 2017 revenue and EPS could not be retrieved today due to S&P Global access limits; REFR’s micro-cap status and limited analyst coverage often result in sparse formal consensus.*
- Implication: Without Street anchors, investors should focus on sequential/YoY trends (fee income, EPS) and operational catalysts (automotive adoption, cost trajectory) .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Expense execution is central: 29% OpEx cut and lower R&D underpin improved losses; sustaining this trajectory is key to approaching breakeven .
- Automotive is the near-term driver: Rising S‑Class take rates and “multiple OEMs” in the pipeline create catalysts; watch for new OEM launches and broader model penetration .
- Cash runway improved: The $1.25M loan extends runway to ≥Q4 2019; monitor burn vs fee income and receivable collections for durability .
- Architecture leverage via Gauzy: 2018 contributions could diversify revenue; certified laminator network may accelerate adoption and reduce costs .
- Aircraft timing volatility: Platform breadth is positive, but quarterly timing can swing fee income; treat aircraft contribution as lumpy .
- Regulatory tailwinds: SPD’s EV range and CO2 reduction benefits align with OEM compliance needs, supporting adoption arguments .
- Trading lens: With no clear consensus estimates, trade around tangible catalysts (OEM announcements, cost updates, licensee milestones), and watch listing/financing developments .
*Estimates unavailable: We attempted to retrieve consensus via S&P Global but access limits prevented data today.