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RESEARCH FRONTIERS INC (REFR)·Q4 2017 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 fee income was $279k, down sequentially from $488k in Q3, while FY 2017 fee income rose 22% to $1.509M; FY net loss improved 43% to $2.414M ($0.10/share) as expense reductions took hold .
  • Management highlighted improving automotive royalties (higher S‑Class take rates, 14 Mercedes variants) and expects continued revenue growth in 2018, supported by cost reductions and broader OEM activity .
  • Cash runway was extended via a $1.25M interest‑free loan (Feb 2018); burn rate ~$400k per quarter with runway to at least Q4 2019, contingent on revenue and receivable collections .
  • Consensus Wall Street estimates for Q4 2017 were unavailable via S&P Global today; assessment of beat/miss versus Street could not be determined.*

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Expense discipline: “expenses in 2017 were down about $1.6 million or 29% compared to the prior year,” contributing to a fifth consecutive year of net loss reduction .
  • Automotive traction: “AGC hit some quarterly record sales… we are now on 14 different model variants within Mercedes,” with rising Magic Sky Control take rates in S‑Class .
  • Strategic licensing: New Gauzy license (Oct 2017) to broaden architectural reach and lower cost to customers; management “expects continued revenue growth… in 2018” .

What Went Wrong

  • Q4 softness: Fee income fell to $279k (vs $488k in Q3); management cited temporary aircraft timing impacts alongside normal variability .
  • Aircraft market: Slightly lower aircraft fee income in 2017 (timing of window deliveries), limiting diversification momentum in the quarter .
  • Listing optics: Investor concerns around <$1 share price were discussed; while no NASDAQ notice had been received, potential reverse split options were mentioned as contingency .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2016Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2017
Fee Income ($USD)$277,760 $348,179 $488,336 $279,439
Operating Loss ($USD)$(1,389,561) $(490,652) $(304,251) $(669,276)
Net Loss ($USD)$(1,385,228) $(489,812) $(303,138) $(668,354)
Basic/Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.06) $(0.02) $(0.01) $(0.03)

FY totals and structure:

MetricFY 2016FY 2017
Fee Income ($USD)$1,236,097 $1,509,070
Operating Expenses ($USD)$4,086,408 $3,127,979
Research & Development ($USD)$1,417,634 $799,702
Net Loss ($USD)$(4,238,410) $(2,413,859)
Cash & Cash Equivalents (FY‑end) ($USD)$1,691,603 $1,737,847

Notes:

  • Q4 2017 vs prior quarter: fee income down 43% sequentially; EPS loss widened to $(0.03) from $(0.01) .
  • Q4 2017 vs prior year: modest fee income increase vs Q4 2016, with smaller EPS loss $(0.03) vs $(0.06) .

Segment breakdown/KPIs: REFR operates a single segment (licensing); detailed segment revenue not disclosed. FY fee income drivers were primarily automotive, with marine, display, and architectural also contributing; aircraft was slightly lower YoY .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue trajectoryFY 2018None specificManagement “expects continued revenue growth… in 2018” Qualitative raise
Cash runway/burn2018–2019Burn ~$400k/qtr; cash to 12–15 months (Q3 call) Burn ~$400k/qtr; runway “until at least the fourth quarter of 2019” post $1.25M loan Extended runway
Automotive adoption2018Ongoing discussions with second OEM “Multiple OEMs… developed vehicles… coming out using SPD” Broader pipeline

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2017)Previous Mentions (Q3 2017)Current Period (Q4 2017)Trend
Automotive take rates/royaltiesRefreshed S‑Class launch; strong Q3 expected Record S‑Class roofs; higher take rates; second OEM project alive Uptick in S‑Class take rate; 14 Mercedes variants; “multiple OEMs” in pipeline Improving
Cost reductionsR&D+OpEx down; lean operations Continued OpEx reduction; monetizing receivables 29% OpEx cut; burn ~$400k/qtr Improving
Gauzy partnershipLicense signed Oct 2017; strategic fit in architecture Expect near‑term revenue; certified laminators network Hiring for SPD unit; expected 2018 contributions Building
Aircraft marketPPG/Vision Systems alliance; Eclipse 700 selection Opportunities incl. retrofits; airline interest; EDW performance advantages Slight Q4 timing impact; continued platform breadth Mixed near‑term
EV/Emission benefitsSPD ↑EV range ~5.5%; ↓CO2 ~4 g/km Emission penalty avoidance; ~€360/car estimates OEM penalty math reiterated (~€95/g); ~$471/car benefit Consistent
Capital/RunwayEnough cash 12–15 months Exploring financing; positive ops trends $1.25M loan; runway to ≥Q4 2019 Strengthened
Listing riskNo NASDAQ notice; reverse split as contingency Watch

Management Commentary

  • “Our net loss this year was down… by more than 43%. This reduction… came from both revenue growth and expense reduction… revenues were up over 22% in 2017… we expect continued revenue growth… in 2018” — Joseph Harary, CEO .
  • “AGC hit some quarterly record sales… noticeable uptick… Magic Sky Control option… now on 14 different model variants within Mercedes” .
  • “Multiple OEMs… developed vehicles that are coming out using SPD‑SmartGlass technology… RFQs… especially in automotive… quite large” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Cost/burn: Clarified distinction between internal cost cuts and lowering customer costs; ~$400k/qtr burn, with efficiency focus to profitability .
  • Gauzy/architecture: Gauzy expected to generate SPD revenues in 2018; leveraging >50 certified laminators and PDLC experience .
  • Automotive pipeline: Second OEM project remains active; management now points to “multiple OEMs” preparing SPD vehicles .
  • Financing: $1.25M non‑interest loan converts at market price with warrants at a premium; targeted long‑term investors; extended runway .
  • Listing: No NASDAQ notice; reverse split cited as potential tool if needed; expectation of positive developments within six months .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus for Q4 2017 revenue and EPS could not be retrieved today due to S&P Global access limits; REFR’s micro-cap status and limited analyst coverage often result in sparse formal consensus.*
  • Implication: Without Street anchors, investors should focus on sequential/YoY trends (fee income, EPS) and operational catalysts (automotive adoption, cost trajectory) .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Expense execution is central: 29% OpEx cut and lower R&D underpin improved losses; sustaining this trajectory is key to approaching breakeven .
  • Automotive is the near-term driver: Rising S‑Class take rates and “multiple OEMs” in the pipeline create catalysts; watch for new OEM launches and broader model penetration .
  • Cash runway improved: The $1.25M loan extends runway to ≥Q4 2019; monitor burn vs fee income and receivable collections for durability .
  • Architecture leverage via Gauzy: 2018 contributions could diversify revenue; certified laminator network may accelerate adoption and reduce costs .
  • Aircraft timing volatility: Platform breadth is positive, but quarterly timing can swing fee income; treat aircraft contribution as lumpy .
  • Regulatory tailwinds: SPD’s EV range and CO2 reduction benefits align with OEM compliance needs, supporting adoption arguments .
  • Trading lens: With no clear consensus estimates, trade around tangible catalysts (OEM announcements, cost updates, licensee milestones), and watch listing/financing developments .

*Estimates unavailable: We attempted to retrieve consensus via S&P Global but access limits prevented data today.