RT
Rent the Runway, Inc. (RENT)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 FY2024 (reported April 15, 2025) delivered modest topline growth and strong profitability: Revenue $76.4M (+0.8% y/y; +0.7% q/q), gross margin 37.7% (up 300 bps q/q), and Adjusted EBITDA $17.4M (22.8% margin), with positive free cash flow of $2.1M .
- Versus consensus, RENT posted an EPS beat and a slight revenue miss in Q4; Q2 and Q3 showed EPS beats with mixed revenue outcomes (see Estimates Context) (Values retrieved from S&P Global).
- FY2025 pivot to offense: largest inventory acquisition in company history (doubling new units; ~62% of units via capital-light Share by RTR), guiding double‑digit ending active subscriber growth and FY2025 free cash flow of $(30)M to $(40)M; no full-year revenue/Adj. EBITDA guidance .
- Near-term catalyst/risk mix: significant CapEx step-up ($70–$75M) to fund inventory depth; management flagged tariff uncertainty and plans prudence; Q1 FY2025 revenue guide $68–$70M and Adj. EBITDA of (5)%–(7)% of revenue .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Record cost discipline drove margin and cash improvements: Operating expenses down 20.8% y/y; Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 22.8% in Q4; Q4 free cash flow positive $2.1M .
- Customer experience upgrades and inventory depth underpin retention: 8% retention improvement in FY2024; launch of 60‑day customer promise, stylist access, and back‑in‑stock notifications; largest inventory plan announced for FY2025 .
- Strategic inventory sourcing: Share by RTR expected to reach ~62% of units in FY2025, supporting capital-light growth; exclusive design collections at ~half wholesale cost .
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What Went Wrong
- Subscriber base dipped into year-end: Ending active subscribers fell to 119,778 in Q4 (−4.9% y/y; down q/q) amid reduced paid marketing and seasonality .
- Gross margin down y/y: 37.7% in Q4 vs 39.4% y/y due to higher revenue share mix; though improved q/q to 37.7% from 34.7% .
- FY2025 cash consumption guide reflects growth investment: Management now expects FY2025 FCF of $(30)M–$(40)M and CapEx $70–$75M to fund inventory step-up; tariff uncertainty flagged with no mitigation guarantee .
Financial Results
Quarterly performance (oldest → newest):
Q4 comparison vs prior periods:
Segment breakdown:
KPIs and operating metrics:
Key drivers and reconciliations:
- Q4 gross margin down y/y on higher revenue share mix, but up q/q on seasonally lower revenue share payments and lower fulfillment cost as % of sales .
- Operating expenses fell to 44% of revenue in Q4 from 55.9% y/y and 48.7% q/q on lower marketing and cost reductions .
- FY2024 cash and equivalents at Jan 31, 2025: $77.4M; unrestricted cash end-Feb 2025: $81.2M (down $2.8M vs FY2023 end) .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We’ve significantly improved our cash position...proven that we can operate a sustainable nearly breakeven business.”
- “In 2025 we plan to add 2x new inventory units year-over-year...75% more new styles...83 new brands.”
- “Share by RTR units are expected to increase to approximately 62% of total units in fiscal year 2025.”
- “We expect to deliver double-digit ending active subscriber growth for fiscal year 2025...and full year cash consumption between negative $30 million and negative $40 million.”
- “We have provided...CapEx guidance for the year of $70 million to $75 million...”
Q&A Highlights
- Cash flow drivers clarified: FY2025 FCF consumption reflects nearly doubling inventory and ~2.5x increase in Share by RTR units, plus lag between ending vs average subs; CapEx planned at $70–$75M .
- Consumer backdrop/tariffs: Management avoided macro predictions; emphasized rental value vs buying; expects inventory depth to drive loyalty and organic acquisition despite uncertainty .
- Inventory strategy is a step-function change: Customers to see ~75% more newness in at‑home baskets; deeper units in blockbuster brands to elevate perceived shipment value and retention .
- Marketing efficiency tests: Q4 reductions assessed incrementality of paid channels; learnings inform prudent FY2025 growth investments .
Estimates Context
Consensus vs actuals (S&P Global values; asterisk denotes SPGI data).
Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Implications: Street may need to temper near-term revenue trajectory (Q4 miss; Q1 guide $68–$70M) while revising margins/EBITDA higher given sustained cost discipline and capital-light inventory sourcing .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- FY2025 is a deliberate growth investment year: expect higher CapEx ($70–$75M) and FCF usage ($(30)M–$(40)M) to fund a step‑function inventory expansion focused on top designer brands; subscriber growth targeted double‑digit .
- Profitability foundation is stronger: Q4 Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 22.8% and fulfillment ratio improved; cost discipline persists even as growth investments begin .
- Inventory model de‑risks capital: ~62% of FY2025 units via Share by RTR and expanded exclusives at roughly half wholesale cost support margin resilience while scaling assortment .
- Near-term setup: Q1 revenue guide ($68–$70M) and negative Adj. EBITDA suggest margin dip before benefits of inventory/retention accrue; watch sequential subscriber rebuild and conversion .
- Tariff uncertainty is an external swing factor; RENT imports a relatively small portion directly, but impact is uncertain and excluded from guidance—monitor policy headlines .
- Strategic narrative: a founder‑led, customer‑obsessed reset; proactive CX and personalization initiatives plus deeper inventory should revive organic growth/loyalty—key stock catalysts as KPIs turn .
- Balance sheet watchlist: cash $77.4M at FY-end; net debt remains high—execution on subscriber growth and capital-light sourcing will be critical for medium‑term thesis .