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Rent the Runway, Inc. (RENT)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 FY2024 (reported April 15, 2025) delivered modest topline growth and strong profitability: Revenue $76.4M (+0.8% y/y; +0.7% q/q), gross margin 37.7% (up 300 bps q/q), and Adjusted EBITDA $17.4M (22.8% margin), with positive free cash flow of $2.1M .
  • Versus consensus, RENT posted an EPS beat and a slight revenue miss in Q4; Q2 and Q3 showed EPS beats with mixed revenue outcomes (see Estimates Context) (Values retrieved from S&P Global).
  • FY2025 pivot to offense: largest inventory acquisition in company history (doubling new units; ~62% of units via capital-light Share by RTR), guiding double‑digit ending active subscriber growth and FY2025 free cash flow of $(30)M to $(40)M; no full-year revenue/Adj. EBITDA guidance .
  • Near-term catalyst/risk mix: significant CapEx step-up ($70–$75M) to fund inventory depth; management flagged tariff uncertainty and plans prudence; Q1 FY2025 revenue guide $68–$70M and Adj. EBITDA of (5)%–(7)% of revenue .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Record cost discipline drove margin and cash improvements: Operating expenses down 20.8% y/y; Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 22.8% in Q4; Q4 free cash flow positive $2.1M .
    • Customer experience upgrades and inventory depth underpin retention: 8% retention improvement in FY2024; launch of 60‑day customer promise, stylist access, and back‑in‑stock notifications; largest inventory plan announced for FY2025 .
    • Strategic inventory sourcing: Share by RTR expected to reach ~62% of units in FY2025, supporting capital-light growth; exclusive design collections at ~half wholesale cost .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Subscriber base dipped into year-end: Ending active subscribers fell to 119,778 in Q4 (−4.9% y/y; down q/q) amid reduced paid marketing and seasonality .
    • Gross margin down y/y: 37.7% in Q4 vs 39.4% y/y due to higher revenue share mix; though improved q/q to 37.7% from 34.7% .
    • FY2025 cash consumption guide reflects growth investment: Management now expects FY2025 FCF of $(30)M–$(40)M and CapEx $70–$75M to fund inventory step-up; tariff uncertainty flagged with no mitigation guarantee .

Financial Results

Quarterly performance (oldest → newest):

MetricQ2 FY2024Q3 FY2024Q4 FY2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$78.9 $75.9 $76.4
GAAP Net Loss per Share ($)$(4.17) $(4.94) $(3.44)
Gross Margin (%)41.1% 34.7% 37.7%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$13.7 $9.3 $17.4
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)17.4% 12.3% 22.8%
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$(4.5) $(3.4) $2.1

Q4 comparison vs prior periods:

MetricQ4 FY2023Q3 FY2024Q4 FY2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$75.8 $75.9 $76.4
GAAP Net Loss per Share ($)$(7.02) $(4.94) $(3.44)
Gross Margin (%)39.4% 34.7% 37.7%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$11.2 $9.3 $17.4
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)14.8% 12.3% 22.8%

Segment breakdown:

Revenue Segment ($USD Millions)Q2 FY2024Q3 FY2024Q4 FY2024
Subscription and Reserve rental revenue$68.5 $66.3 $64.6
Other revenue$10.4 $9.6 $11.8
Total Revenue$78.9 $75.9 $76.4

KPIs and operating metrics:

KPI / MetricQ2 FY2024Q3 FY2024Q4 FY2024
Ending Active Subscribers129,073 132,518 119,778
Average Active Subscribers137,455 130,796 126,148
Ending Total Subscribers175,087 174,511 164,004
Fulfillment Expense ($M)$20.6 $21.4 $20.2
Fulfillment Expense (% of Revenue)26.1% 28.2% 26.4%

Key drivers and reconciliations:

  • Q4 gross margin down y/y on higher revenue share mix, but up q/q on seasonally lower revenue share payments and lower fulfillment cost as % of sales .
  • Operating expenses fell to 44% of revenue in Q4 from 55.9% y/y and 48.7% q/q on lower marketing and cost reductions .
  • FY2024 cash and equivalents at Jan 31, 2025: $77.4M; unrestricted cash end-Feb 2025: $81.2M (down $2.8M vs FY2023 end) .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($M)Q1 FY2025n/a$68–$70 New
Adjusted EBITDA (% of Revenue)Q1 FY2025n/a(5)%–(7)% New
Ending Active SubscribersFY2025n/aDouble‑digit growth y/y New
Free Cash Flow ($M)FY2025FY2024: Breakeven reiterated in Q3 $(30)–$(40) Lower vs prior-year posture
Capital Expenditure ($M)FY2025n/a$70–$75 (inventory step-up) New
Revenue/Adj. EBITDA (Full year)FY2025n/aNot provided Maintained “no guide” stance
Tariff assumptionsFY2025n/aNot included due to uncertainty New disclosure

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 FY2024 (Q-2)Q3 FY2024 (Q-1)Q4 FY2024 (Current)Trend
AI/Technology initiativesMajor site performance upgrades (10x faster grids; lower bounce) and checkout simplification; planned SEO investment Continued tech/UX upgrades; faster grids led to +61% add‑to‑bag; Apple Pay; improved SEO (↑53% non‑branded impressions) New personalization features, stylist access; proactive CX calls; back‑in‑stock notifications pipeline Ongoing product velocity; personalization ramp
Supply chain/LogisticsUPS contract lowered fulfillment costs Warehouse throughput improvements; buffer removal increasing turns Lower fulfillment costs as % revenue supporting margins Efficiency improving
Tariffs/Macron/an/aManagement flagged tariff uncertainty; excluded from guidance Emerging risk
Product performance (Reserve/Resale)Reserve orders up ~10–20% y/y by mid‑Q3; rejoin rates strong Reserve orders up ~23%; resale units/sold per subscriber +38%; other revenue +23% y/y Other revenue +13.5% y/y; inventory strategy to deepen top brands Reserve momentum; resale supportive
Marketing/BrandDiversifying channels; reigniting brand via campus tour “Own Nothing, Have Everything” 15‑yr campaign; marketing efficiencies (TAC ↓23%) Reduced paid marketing in Q4 to test incremental effectiveness Shift to efficient spend; brand-led
Inventory strategy2025 plan to increase breadth/depth of pillar brands; capital-light via rev-share/exclusives Reiterated focus on top 25 pillar brands; high utilization/velocity Doubling new units; 62% via Share by RTR; 75% more new styles; 83 new brands Aggressive step-up
Subscriber retention/onboardingFocused pods on onboarding; early initiatives 60‑day promise; styling team to improve first shipment Proactive customer calls; increased newness in at‑home baskets (+75%) expected Improving retention funnel

Management Commentary

  • “We’ve significantly improved our cash position...proven that we can operate a sustainable nearly breakeven business.”
  • “In 2025 we plan to add 2x new inventory units year-over-year...75% more new styles...83 new brands.”
  • “Share by RTR units are expected to increase to approximately 62% of total units in fiscal year 2025.”
  • “We expect to deliver double-digit ending active subscriber growth for fiscal year 2025...and full year cash consumption between negative $30 million and negative $40 million.”
  • “We have provided...CapEx guidance for the year of $70 million to $75 million...”

Q&A Highlights

  • Cash flow drivers clarified: FY2025 FCF consumption reflects nearly doubling inventory and ~2.5x increase in Share by RTR units, plus lag between ending vs average subs; CapEx planned at $70–$75M .
  • Consumer backdrop/tariffs: Management avoided macro predictions; emphasized rental value vs buying; expects inventory depth to drive loyalty and organic acquisition despite uncertainty .
  • Inventory strategy is a step-function change: Customers to see ~75% more newness in at‑home baskets; deeper units in blockbuster brands to elevate perceived shipment value and retention .
  • Marketing efficiency tests: Q4 reductions assessed incrementality of paid channels; learnings inform prudent FY2025 growth investments .

Estimates Context

Consensus vs actuals (S&P Global values; asterisk denotes SPGI data).

MetricQ2 FY2024 Estimate*Q2 Actual*DeltaQ3 FY2024 Estimate*Q3 Actual*DeltaQ4 FY2024 Estimate*Q4 Actual*Delta
Revenue ($USD)$77.2M*$78.9M*+$1.7M (Beat)$76.1M*$75.9M*−$0.2M (Miss)$77.6M*$76.4M*−$1.2M (Miss)
Primary EPS ($)−5.47*−3.80*+$1.67 (Beat)−4.985*−4.603*+$0.382 (Beat)−3.28*−2.641*+$0.639 (Beat)

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Implications: Street may need to temper near-term revenue trajectory (Q4 miss; Q1 guide $68–$70M) while revising margins/EBITDA higher given sustained cost discipline and capital-light inventory sourcing .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • FY2025 is a deliberate growth investment year: expect higher CapEx ($70–$75M) and FCF usage ($(30)M–$(40)M) to fund a step‑function inventory expansion focused on top designer brands; subscriber growth targeted double‑digit .
  • Profitability foundation is stronger: Q4 Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 22.8% and fulfillment ratio improved; cost discipline persists even as growth investments begin .
  • Inventory model de‑risks capital: ~62% of FY2025 units via Share by RTR and expanded exclusives at roughly half wholesale cost support margin resilience while scaling assortment .
  • Near-term setup: Q1 revenue guide ($68–$70M) and negative Adj. EBITDA suggest margin dip before benefits of inventory/retention accrue; watch sequential subscriber rebuild and conversion .
  • Tariff uncertainty is an external swing factor; RENT imports a relatively small portion directly, but impact is uncertain and excluded from guidance—monitor policy headlines .
  • Strategic narrative: a founder‑led, customer‑obsessed reset; proactive CX and personalization initiatives plus deeper inventory should revive organic growth/loyalty—key stock catalysts as KPIs turn .
  • Balance sheet watchlist: cash $77.4M at FY-end; net debt remains high—execution on subscriber growth and capital-light sourcing will be critical for medium‑term thesis .