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RG

ROYAL GOLD INC (RGLD)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record quarter: revenue $193.44M, GAAP diluted EPS $1.72, adjusted diluted EPS $1.51, adjusted EBITDA margin 82%; strength driven by higher gold/silver prices and robust royalty contributions .
  • Material beats vs Street: revenue beat by ~16% vs $166.46M consensus and adjusted EPS beat by ~10% vs $1.37 consensus; EBITDA also ahead of consensus; management maintained 2025 guidance ranges (sales, DD&A, tax rate) and reiterated stronger second-half setup . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Liquidity and balance sheet: ~$1.25B total liquidity, debt-free; dividend paid at $0.45/share (+12.5% YoY) .
  • Portfolio catalysts: Pueblo Viejo silver recovery work completed thickener optimization with ~2.0M oz silver deliveries deferred; management expects recovery improvements into Q4 2025/2026, tempering expectations on timing of deferred silver catch-up .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record net income $113.5M and strong adjusted EPS: “Our first quarter results were strong and provided an excellent start to 2025… more than offset by a very strong and steadily-rising gold price” .
  • High margins and contained overhead: adjusted EBITDA margin 82%; cash G&A $7.9M (~4% of revenue) .
  • Balance sheet strength and capital returns: total liquidity ~$1.25B; quarterly dividend $0.45/share; Rainy River advance stream deposit fully repaid .

What Went Wrong

  • Stream-side softness and asset-specific headwinds: lower gold sales from Xavantina and lower production at Cortez vs prior year; DD&A decreased largely on lower Xavantina and Cortez volumes .
  • Cash flow modestly down YoY: operating cash flow $136.4M vs $138.3M prior year, mainly due to higher cash taxes and absence of prior-year one-offs (Mount Milligan cost support, Khoemacau debt interest) .
  • Pueblo Viejo silver deferrals: ~2.0M oz deferred at Q1-end; timing of deferred silver deliveries remains uncertain and expected to be gradual over years as silver recovery exceeds threshold .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$148.90 $202.56 $193.44
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.72 $1.63 $1.72
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.91 $1.63 $1.51
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %79% 84% 82%
Net Income Margin %32% 53% 59%
SegmentQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Stream Revenue ($USD Millions)$102.53 $124.76 $122.48
Royalty Revenue ($USD Millions)$46.37 $77.80 $70.95
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)$148.90 $202.56 $193.44
Revenue MixQ4 2024Q1 2025
Gold (%)77% 75%
Silver (%)9% 12%
Copper (%)10% 9%
KPIQ1 2025
GEOs (units)67,600
Operating Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$136.37
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$159.22
Cash G&A ($USD Millions)$7.87
DD&A per GEO ($USD)$488
Total Liquidity ($USD Billions)$1.25
Dividend per Share ($USD)$0.45
Q1 2025 vs ConsensusConsensusActual
Revenue ($USD Millions)$166.46*$193.44
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($USD)$1.37*$1.51
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$144.08*$159.22

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Gold Sales (oz)FY 2025210,000–230,000 210,000–230,000 Maintained
Silver Sales (M oz)FY 20252.7–3.3 2.7–3.3 Maintained
Copper Sales (M lb)FY 202513.5–16.0 13.5–16.0 Maintained
Other Metals ($MM)FY 2025$18–$21 $18–$21 Maintained
Effective Tax Rate (%)FY 202517–22 17–22 Maintained
DD&A ($MM)FY 2025Not disclosedNot disclosedMaintained ranges per commentary
Dividend ($/share)CY 2025$1.80 annual ($0.45/qtr) $0.45/qtr paid in Q1 Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Pueblo Viejo silver recoveryQ4 2024: project to improve silver recovery targeted for Q4 2025; 35-day thickener optimization in Q1 2025 planned Thickener optimization completed; deferred silver ~1.97M–2.0M oz; recovery improvements expected into Q4 2025/2026; catch-up likely over years Improving gradually; multi-year catch-up
Second-half weightingQ4 2024: guided softer Q1 (40–45k stream GEOs) Expect stronger H2 and likely stronger Q4, acknowledging lumpiness in deliveries Reaffirmed
Mount Milligan mine-life/PFSQ4 2024: support agreement to incentivize life extension beyond 2035 PFS on track Q3 2025; potential ~10% mill throughput increase and improved recoveries Advancing; potential capacity uplift
M&A/portfolio additionsQ4 2024: acquired Back River and Cactus royalties Additional Xavantina stream ($50M); broad and busy opportunity set across streams/royalties Expanding, diversified deal flow
Taxes/ETRQ4 2024: ETR 19.5% with higher income ETR 8.4% with $13.7M discrete benefits; underlying ~19.4%; FY guidance 17–22% Normalizing to guide

Management Commentary

  • “Our first quarter results were strong and provided an excellent start to 2025… more than offset by a very strong and steadily-rising gold price” — Bill Heissenbuttel, CEO .
  • “Royalty revenue was up ~53% YoY… strong quarter from Peñasquito, Manh Choh, and Robinson; lower revenue from the Cortez legacy zone” — Martin Raffield, SVP Operations .
  • “Excluding discrete tax benefits, our effective tax rate for the quarter was 19.4%. Our guidance for the year is 17% to 22%” — Paul Libner, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Taxes: Two discrete benefits ($12.0M basis adjustment and $1.7M withholding refund) lowered ETR to 8.4%; underlying ETR ~19.4%; FY guide 17–22% maintained .
  • H2 weighting: Management expects stronger H2 and likely stronger Q4, noting delivery lumpiness at assets like Mount Milligan and Andacollo .
  • Pueblo Viejo silver deferrals: Deferred silver ~1.97M oz at Q1-end; silver recovery must exceed 52.5% for stream deliveries; catch-up expected over years, not quickly .
  • Opportunity set: Broad pipeline across streams and royalties; seeing larger deals alongside “normal” $100–$300M range, but maintaining disciplined approach .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 adjusted EPS of $1.51 beat consensus $1.37; revenue of $193.44M beat consensus $166.46M; EBITDA of $159.22M exceeded consensus $144.08M. Values retrieved from S&P Global.* .
  • Consensus metrics appear to be catching up to stronger commodity price realizations and royalty segment contributions; Street models likely to revise higher near-term EBITDA/OCF and tweak mix assumptions (e.g., silver recovery timing at Pueblo Viejo) .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Delivery on leverage: High margins and royalty mix amplified benefits from higher gold/silver prices; adjusted EBITDA margin held at 82% with cash G&A ~4% of revenue .
  • Quality of beat: Broad-based strength (royalty segment +53% YoY; streams up ~19% YoY), with GAAP EPS $1.72 and adjusted EPS $1.51; both above internal run-rate expectations and Street . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • H2 skew and catalysts: Expect stronger H2 (and likely Q4) from weighted production schedules; watch Mount Milligan PFS (Q3 2025) and Pueblo Viejo silver recovery progress as stock catalysts .
  • Silver deferrals temper near-term upside: ~2.0M oz deferred at Pueblo Viejo; management tempering expectations on timing—supportive medium-term but gradual .
  • Capital allocation flexibility: ~$1.25B liquidity and debt-free enable continued portfolio expansion; incremental Xavantina stream illustrates ability to deepen exposure to proven assets .
  • Risk watchlist: Asset-specific variability (Cortez legacy zone lower YoY; Xavantina sales) and delivery lumpiness can affect quarter-to-quarter results; underpinning fundamentals remain solid .
  • Trading lens: Near-term bias positive on maintained guidance and beats; monitor commodity price trends, PV recovery milestones, and H2 delivery cadence for momentum .

Additional Source Documents Reviewed

  • Q1 2025 8-K and press release (financials, portfolio updates, tables) –.
  • Q1 2025 earnings call transcripts (prepared remarks and Q&A) – –.
  • Q1 2025 stream segment update press release (sales, inventories, realized prices) .
  • Q4 2024 8-K (prior-quarter baseline and guidance framing) –.
  • Q2 2025 8-K (subsequent-quarter trend context; portfolio/corporate developments) –.