RI
REGENXBIO Inc. (RGNX)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 revenue was $21.2M, down 4% year over year and 12% sequentially; GAAP diluted EPS improved to ($1.01) from ($1.43) in Q4 2023 and from ($1.17) in Q3 2024, with operating loss narrowing on lower R&D and credit loss recoveries .
- Guidance: cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities of $244.9M at 12/31/24 plus $110M upfront from Nippon Shinyaku fund operations into the second half of 2026 (raised vs prior “into 2026”) .
- Catalysts: RGX-121 BLA submitted; potential FDA approval 2H 2025; RGX-202 pivotal trial nearly 50% enrolled with BLA targeted mid‑2026; AbbVie retinal programs targeting topline wet AMD data in 2026 and planning DR Phase III in 2025 .
- Key stock reaction drivers ahead: regulatory milestones (RGX‑121 approval, PRV monetization), nondilutive capital (AbbVie DR milestone), and pivotal RGX‑202 biomarker/functional data flow in 2025–2026 .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- BLA for clemidsogene lanparvovec (RGX‑121) submitted; potential approval 2H 2025; management: “We’ve submitted our first BLA and expect our first FDA approval in the fourth quarter [2025]” .
- RGX‑202 pivotal advancing rapidly; nearly 50% enrolled; management emphasized manufacturing readiness: “can produce 2,500 doses of RGX‑202 per year… purity levels >80% full capsid” .
- Retinal franchise progressing: DR pivotal planning with AbbVie in 2025; wet AMD pivotal topline expected in 2026; fellow‑eye data showed 97% reduction in anti‑VEGF burden with durable control and no intraocular inflammation .
What Went Wrong
- Revenue decline driven by lower Zolgensma royalties (FY 2024 $81.5M vs $85.3M FY 2023), pressuring top line in Q4 and full year .
- Continued operating losses: Q4 loss from operations ($51.4M), though improved YoY; interest expense rose to ($9.4M) in Q4 2024 .
- Cash declined to $244.9M at year‑end from $314.1M prior year, reflecting funding of operations despite March 2024 offering proceeds .
Financial Results
Income Statement and EPS vs prior periods and estimates
Note: Consensus estimates unavailable via S&P Global; estimate comparisons not provided.
OpEx and Cash KPIs
Annual Royalty KPI
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “2025 is a transformational year… We’ve submitted our first BLA and expect our first FDA approval in the fourth quarter for RGX‑121… then head into 2026 and 2027 with potential BLA filings for RGX‑202 and ABBV‑RGX‑314” — Curran M. Simpson, CEO .
- “Our manufacturing innovation center can produce 2,500 doses of RGX‑202 per year… commercial‑ready manufacturing… second to market position in Duchenne remains strong” — CEO .
- “ALTITUDE® DR… end of Phase II meeting was very positive… planning a Phase III clinical program to support global regulatory filings” — CMO .
- “CAMPSIITE trial met its primary pivotal endpoint… BLA using the accelerated approval pathway… D2S6 reasonably likely to predict clinical benefit” — CMO .
Q&A Highlights
- Nondilutive financing: Mgmt expects DR milestone in 2H 2025 upon first patient dosed; PRV monetization post RGX‑121 approval; Zolgensma royalties revert after $300M cap — “timing risk” more than binary risk; view approval probability high given pre‑BLA feedback .
- DMD pivotal enrollment outlook: Screening robust; enrollment to accelerate as sites add and functional data shared; younger cohorts (1–3 yrs) included in pivotal; interest strong across ages .
- Cardiac endpoints in DMD: AFFINITY collects EF via echo/MRI and troponin; differentiation may be more apparent over longer follow‑up as patients age .
- Wet AMD pivotal strategy: No plan to cut enrollment; goal is full characterization vs standard regimens; AbbVie to drive fast filing once topline available .
- Regulatory continuity (CBER): Company not seeing meaningful changes in review cadence or team availability; remains “business as usual” .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus estimates for Q4 2024 were unavailable at the time of analysis; therefore, comparisons to Street expectations are not provided. Future revisions may be needed as nondilutive milestones and regulatory timelines firm up (AbbVie DR, RGX‑121 approval/PRV) .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Regulatory path is crystallizing: RGX‑121 BLA filed with potential approval 2H 2025, positioning PRV monetization and initial commercial revenue stream with partner Nippon Shinyaku .
- RGX‑202 is the near‑term growth driver: pivotal nearing half enrollment; mid‑2026 BLA targeted; manufacturing capacity and product purity support a fast, broad launch strategy .
- Retinal franchise provides large optionality: DR pivotal program planning in 2025 and wet AMD topline in 2026; fellow‑eye subretinal data de‑risk bilateral use, enhancing commercial potential .
- Financial runway extends into 2H 2026 with the $110M Nippon upfront; additional nondilutive options (AbbVie DR milestone; PRV sale; royalty reversion) could meaningfully extend runway .
- Operating discipline evident: R&D down YoY/QoQ; credit loss recoveries and higher investment income helped offset expenses; but interest expense rose, keeping focus on cash management .
- Near‑term trading catalysts: any FDA acceptance milestones for RGX‑121 BLA, DR Phase III initiation, additional RGX‑202 biomarker/functional readouts, and updates on nondilutive financing timing (AbbVie milestone) .
- Medium‑term thesis: multiple first/best‑in‑class one‑time gene therapies across rare and retinal indications, with in‑house manufacturing as a strategic advantage and partnerships (AbbVie, Nippon) to scale commercialization .
Appendix: Additional Data Cross‑Checks
- Q4 2024 revenue $21.2M; net loss ($51.2M); GAAP EPS ($1.01); cash & marketable securities $244.9M .
- Q3 2024 revenue $24.2M; GAAP EPS ($1.17); cash & marketable securities $278.6M .
- FY Zolgensma royalties: $81.5M (2024) vs $85.3M (2023) .