Executive Summary

Q2 2025 revenue was $1.80M, down sharply year over year (Q2 2024: $3.09M) and up sequentially (Q1 2025: $1.47M), with gross margin at 31% vs. 64% in Q2 2024; diluted EPS was $(0.13), and net loss was $(39.7)M, including $(22.8)M non-cash fair value losses on warrants and earn-outs .
Announced general availability of Cepheus-1-36Q, the industry’s largest multi‑chip quantum computer, achieving 99.5% median two‑qubit gate fidelity and a 2x reduction in error rates vs. Ankaa‑3; 100+ qubit chiplet system at 99.5% median fidelity targeted before year‑end 2025 .
Balance sheet strengthened via $350M gross proceeds through the ATM program; quarter‑end cash, cash equivalents and AFS investments were ~$571.6M with no debt, positioning Rigetti to fund R&D milestones and scaleup .
Demand headwinds tied to U.S. National Quantum Initiative (NQI) expiration and pending reauthorization; mix with UK NQCC development contracts weighed on gross margins; OpEx up on R&D and personnel costs .
Key near‑term catalysts: continued tech execution (gate fidelity, qubit scaling), NQI reauthorization progress, and DARPA QBI phase selections; management reiterated 3‑4 year roadmap to quantum advantage under superconducting modality .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Achieved general availability of Cepheus‑1‑36Q (four chiplets), halving two‑qubit gate error rates vs. Ankaa‑3 and reaching 99.5% median two‑qubit fidelity: “Just 6 months after our record performance with Ankaa‑3, we’ve once again halved our error rates with Cepheus‑1‑36Q” .
Strong liquidity and no debt: completed $350M ATM equity raise; cash, cash equivalents and AFS investments of ~$571.6M at quarter‑end support R&D and commercialization .
Clear scaling roadmap and confidence in year‑end milestone: “We expect to release a 100+ qubit chiplet‑based system at 99.5% median two‑qubit gate fidelity before the end of 2025” .

What Went Wrong

Revenue declined y/y and margins compressed: revenue $1.80M vs. $3.09M y/y; gross margin 31% vs. 64% y/y due to mix and contract pricing variability (e.g., UK NQCC contracts) .
Larger net loss driven by non‑cash liabilities: net loss $(39.7)M includes $(22.8)M unfavorable fair value changes in warrant and earn‑out liabilities; prior year quarter had $3.4M favorable impact .
Macro/government funding uncertainty: CFO cited NQI expiration and pending reauthorization as a revenue headwind; timing of DOE/DOD programs remains a swing factor .

Financial Results

Metric	Q2 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$3.09	$1.47	$1.80
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)	$1.99	$0.44	$0.57
Gross Margin %	64%	30% (calc from $0.44/$1.47)	31%
Operating Loss ($USD Millions)	$(16.09)	$(21.63)	$(19.88)
Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)	$(12.42)	$42.62	$(39.65)
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$0.00	$0.13	$(0.13)
Non‑cash FV change (warrants + earn‑outs, $USD Millions)	$3.41 favorable	$62.10 favorable	$(22.81) unfavorable

Notes: Gross margin for Q1 2025 is calculated from reported revenue and gross profit . Favorable/unfavorable indicates direction of impact on net income (loss).

KPIs and Balance Sheet

KPI / Balance Sheet	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Cash, cash equivalents & AFS investments ($USD Millions)	$217.2	$209.1 (Mar 31)	$571.6 (Jun 30)
Debt	$0 (prepaid)	$0	$0
Weighted Avg Diluted Shares (Millions)	226.4 (Q4)	301.6 (Q1)	298.3 (Q2)
Two‑qubit gate fidelity (median)	99.5% (fSim on Ankaa‑3)	—	99.5% (Cepheus‑1‑36Q)
Two‑qubit gate error rate change	0.5x vs. prior (end‑2024)	—	0.5x further (2x reduction vs. Ankaa‑3)
Chiplet count (system)	—	—	4 (Cepheus‑1‑36Q)

Segment Breakdown: Not applicable; the company does not report discrete revenue segments in the release .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Technology milestone: 100+ qubit chiplet system at 99.5% median two‑qubit fidelity	FY2025	Scale to 100+ qubits by YE with targeted 2x error rate reduction (Ankaa‑3 baseline)	“Expect to release 100+ qubit chiplet‑based system at 99.5% median two‑qubit gate fidelity before end of 2025”	Maintained / reaffirmed
Gate speed roadmap	Multi‑year	Tens of ns; target <50ns for quantum advantage over ~4 years	Cepheus‑1 faster than Ankaa‑3; aiming for <50ns; speed is not primary gating factor	Clarified trajectory
OpEx trajectory	Near‑term	R&D investment focused; no step‑function increases indicated	Sequential growth, “no significant uplift” expected near‑term	Maintained (qualitative)
Share count modeling	Q3 2025	~290M (Q1 commentary)	~327M “ish”	Raised (share count)

No explicit revenue/EPS guidance provided in Q2 materials .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q4 2024 (Q‑2)	Q1 2025 (Q‑1)	Q2 2025 (Current)	Trend
Chiplet/tiled scaling strategy	Introduced tiling roadmap; confidence to 36Q mid‑’25 and >100Q YE	DARPA QBI Stage A concept leveraging multi‑chip + QEC; UK NQCC upgrade to 36Q	GA of 36Q (4x9), 99.5% fidelity; reiterate >100Q at 99.5% by YE	Accelerating execution
Gate fidelity/error rates	99.0% iSWAP; 99.5% fSim; target 2x error reduction in ’25	—	Achieved 99.5% 2‑qubit fidelity on chiplet system; 2x reduction vs. Ankaa‑3	Improving
Gate speed	Tens of ns; target <50ns as part of advantage criteria	—	Cepheus‑1 faster than Ankaa‑3; path to <50ns; speed not key bottleneck	Improving
Error correction (QEC)	Low‑latency readout advances; open modular stack to integrate third‑party QEC	QEC projects with Riverlane/NQCC pilots; DARPA concept includes scalable QEC	QEC emphasis remains; more meaningful in 2026+ as qubits/fidelity rise	Building capability
Government/NQI funding	Expect DOE/DOD funding increases; NQI reauth anticipated	NQI reauth pending; multiple projects awarded in US/UK	NQI expiration pressured revenue; bipartisan support, timing uncertain	Watch funding timing
Quanta collaboration	Agreement signed; >$100M each over 5 years + $35M equity	Closed $35M equity purchase (Apr 29)	Quanta ramping on control systems; hybrid CPU/GPU expertise leveraged	Integration progressing
Sales/revenue mix	Novera sales + NQCC rev recognition in Q4	Government‑funded awards; modest rev	Revenues impacted by NQI lapse; NQCC contracts lower margin	Mixed; margin headwinds

Management Commentary

CEO on technology momentum: “We believe quadrupling our chiplet count and significantly decreasing error rates is the clear path towards quantum advantage and fault tolerance.”
CEO on modality choice: “Superconducting qubits are the leading modality…gate speeds more than 1,000 times faster than other modalities like ion traps and pure atoms.”
CFO on revenue/margins: “Revenues in [Q2 2025] were $1.8M…gross margins…31% vs. 64% [Q2 2024]…impacted by revenue mix and pricing variability in development contracts, including UK NQCC.”
CFO on P&L volatility: “Net loss…includes noncash charges…derivative warrant and earn out liabilities…$22.8M unfavorable impact.”
CEO on timeline: “We are still about three to four years away from getting to the 1,000+ qubit, 99.9% fidelity…which is when we achieve quantum advantage.”

Q&A Highlights

Use of proceeds and OpEx cadence: R&D remains the focus; “no significant uplift” in spending anticipated near term; potential acceleration opportunistically .
Quanta partnership scope: Quanta focusing on non‑QPU hardware stack (control systems); target to start using Quanta control systems by/before 2026; leverage their CPU/GPU systems expertise for hybrid architectures .
Gate speed roadmap: Cepheus‑1 expected 50–60ns range; goal <50ns; speed is important but not the limiting factor vs. qubit count/fidelity/error correction .
Funding environment: Bipartisan support for NQI reauthorization; multiple versions in House/Senate; expectation is “when, not if,” but timing unclear .
Share count modeling: Management suggested ~327M diluted shares for Q3 .

Estimates Context

Wall Street consensus from S&P Global was unavailable for RGTI for Q2 2025 (Revenue Consensus Mean, Primary EPS Consensus Mean, target price metrics returned no data). As a result, we cannot quantify beats/misses versus estimates for this quarter. Values would normally be retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Execution catalyst: GA of Cepheus‑1‑36Q at 99.5% median two‑qubit fidelity validates chiplet architecture; delivering >100 qubits at 99.5% by YE 2025 would be a significant narrative driver .
Funding runway: ~$571.6M cash and AFS investments and no debt post‑$350M ATM raise materially extend runway to pursue milestones; reduces near‑term financing risk .
Revenue/margin volatility likely to persist: Government funding cycles (NQI reauthorization timing) and development‑contract mix (e.g., NQCC) can compress gross margins and affect quarterly revenue cadence .
P&L optics: Large non‑cash swings from warrant/earn‑out liability fair value changes can obscure operating progress; focus on operating loss and technology KPIs for trend analysis .
Medium‑term thesis: Superconducting modality’s speed and scalability plus chiplet approach support pathway to quantum advantage in 3–4 years, contingent on achieving 1,000+ qubits, 99.9% fidelity, <50ns gate speeds, and real‑time error correction .
Partnership leverage: Quanta collaboration should de‑risk/control systems and manufacturing scale over 2026+; watch for control system handoff and hybrid integration milestones .
Policy watch: Track NQI reauthorization and DARPA QBI selections as potential revenue catalysts and external validation of technical leadership .

Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary