Rigetti Computing, Inc. (RGTI)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q3 revenue of $1.95M declined 18% YoY but rose 8% QoQ; gross margin fell to 21% (vs. 51% YoY) on lower‑margin contract mix; GAAP net loss widened to $(201.0)M on large non‑cash warrant/earn‑out fair value changes, while non‑GAAP net loss improved to $(10.7)M ($0.03/share) .
• Liquidity remains a key positive: $558.9M cash and investments at 9/30 and ~$600M as of 11/6 after $46.5M in warrant exercises; no debt .
• Commercial and government traction improved: ~$5.7M in purchase orders for two Novera systems (delivery 1H26) and a new $5.8M, 3‑year AFRL networking contract (revenue ratable) .
• Technology roadmap advanced/expanded: on track for 100+ qubits at 99.5% median 2‑qubit fidelity by year‑end 2025; introduced targets for 150+ qubits/99.7% in 2026 and 1,000+ qubits/99.8% in 2027; support for NVIDIA NVQLink highlights hybrid AI–quantum integration vector .
• No S&P Global consensus estimates were available for Q3 (or prior two quarters), so no beat/miss determination; expect estimate updates to reflect ratable AFRL revenue and 1H26 Novera shipments. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • Cash runway fortified: $558.9M at quarter‑end; ~$600M as of 11/6 (post $46.5M warrant exercises); no debt .
  • Commercial/government wins: ~$5.7M in Novera system POs (two 9‑qubit systems; upgradeable; delivery 1H26); $5.8M AFRL award to advance superconducting quantum networking with QphoX .
  • Strategic/tech positioning: on track for 100+ qubits at 99.5% by YE25; 2026–2027 roadmap added; NVQLink support to accelerate hybrid computation. CEO: “we remain on track to deliver our 100+ qubit chiplet‑based quantum system… by the end of 2025” .

• What Went Wrong

  • Revenue pressure and mix: Q3 revenue down 18% YoY to $1.95M; gross margin compressed to 21% (vs. 51% YoY) driven by contract mix (including lower‑margin NQCC contracts) and variability in terms .
  • GAAP optics: GAAP net loss $(201.0)M and $(0.62) EPS driven primarily by non‑cash changes in derivative warrant liabilities ($(182.0)M) and earn‑out ($(4.1)M) .
  • DARPA QBI: not initially selected for Stage B; management cited constructive feedback emphasizing error correction and long‑range coupling; dialogue continues, optimistic on future inclusion .

Financial Results

Notes:

• Q3 GAAP net loss was driven by non‑cash changes: derivative warrant liabilities $(181.955)M and earn‑out liabilities $(4.062)M; stock‑based comp $4.299M; these items are excluded from non‑GAAP results .
• As of 11/6/25, cash & investments were ~ $600M after $46.5M warrant exercise proceeds .

Q3 YoY comparator:

• Q3 2024 revenue: $2.378M; GAAP EPS $(0.08); gross margin 51% .

Estimates vs. actuals:

• No S&P Global quarterly consensus for revenue or EPS was available for Q1–Q3 2025 for RGTI; therefore beat/miss cannot be determined. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

KPIs and Bookings/Contracts

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “We remain on track to deliver our 100+ qubit chiplet‑based quantum system with an anticipated 99.5% median two‑qubit gate fidelity by the end of 2025… We expect to deploy a 150+ qubit system by… 2026… and a 1,000+ qubit system by… 2027” — Dr. Subodh Kulkarni, CEO .
• “Gross margins in the third quarter… were 21%, compared to 51%… due to the composition of our revenue and variability in the pricing and terms of our contracts… [some] have a lower gross margin profile than most of our other contracts” — Jeff Bertelsen, CFO .
• “As of September 30, 2025, we had approximately $558.9 million of cash… and no debt… as of November 6, ~ $600 million” — CFO .
• “Rigetti is supporting NVIDIA NVQLink… a very promising resource to accelerate hybrid computation development as we work towards quantum advantage” — CEO .

Q&A Highlights

• DARPA QBI Stage B: Not initially selected; feedback centers on error correction and long‑range coupling; company continues engagement and is optimistic on future inclusion .
• Revenue timing: Two Novera systems to be revenue‑recognized upon shipment—one in Q1 2026 and one in Q2 2026 (anticipated); AFRL $5.8M to be recognized ratably over three years (started in Q3) .
• NVQLink/Hybrid: Open, interoperable platform intended to tightly integrate quantum with AI supercomputing; aligns with Rigetti’s hybrid strategy and speed advantages of superconducting qubits .
• Fab/CapEx: Existing 150mm Fremont fab sufficient through 2027 roadmap; exploring 200/300mm tools and more automation longer term; potential hundreds of millions of dollars for a new quantum fab beyond three‑year horizon (capability, not capacity driven) .
• Share count: ~330M shares outstanding as of 11/6; plan on ~335M for Q4 depending on warrant exercises .

Estimates Context

• S&P Global consensus estimates for Q3 2025 (and the prior two quarters) were unavailable for RGTI; as a result, we cannot assess beats or misses versus Street revenue or EPS. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Where estimates may adjust:

• Incorporate ratable AFRL revenue commencing Q3 and Novera shipment revenue in 1H26; reflect margin variability from mix (e.g., lower‑margin development contracts) and higher non‑cash warrant liability volatility impacts on GAAP .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Balance sheet strength (≈$600M cash and investments as of 11/6; no debt) provides multi‑year runway to execute the 2025–2027 technology roadmap .
• Near‑term revenue visibility improved via AFRL ($5.8M over 3 years) and ~$5.7M Novera system POs (delivery/recognition in 1H26) .
• Hybrid compute positioning advanced with NVQLink support—an emerging catalyst for ecosystem adoption and workload pull‑through as fidelity and scale milestones are met .
• Watch margin trajectory: Q3 GM fell to 21% on mix; monitor mix shift (e.g., product/system vs. development contracts) and potential improvement with Novera systems in 2026 .
• Program risk: Initial miss on DARPA Stage B is a headline negative; continued engagement and roadmap execution (error correction, long‑range coupling) are critical for future awards .
• Dilution watch: Ongoing warrant exercises increased cash but may lift share count (~335M expected for Q4 subject to exercises), impacting per‑share optics .
• Trading setup: Near‑term stock moves likely keyed to YE25 100+ qubit/99.5% delivery, incremental government funding news (NQI/DOE), additional on‑prem system wins, and any DARPA Stage B developments .

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References

• Q3 2025 8‑K and press release (financials, non‑GAAP reconciliation, commercial and roadmap updates): .
• Q3 2025 press release (duplicate key highlights): .
• Q3 2025 earnings call transcript (margins, funding context, revenue recognition, DARPA status, share count): .
• Q2 2025 8‑K and call (context/trends): .
• Q1 2025 press release (baseline): .
• Other Q3 press releases: NVIDIA NVQLink support ; C‑DAC MOU .

• S&P Global disclaimer: We queried S&P Global via GetEstimates for RGTI; consensus data for the specified periods was unavailable at the time of analysis. Values retrieved from S&P Global.