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Rivian Automotive, Inc. / DE (RIVN)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 delivered Rivian’s second consecutive positive gross profit at $206M and a 17% gross margin, supported by segment-level gross profit in both Automotive ($92M) and Software & Services ($114M) .
  • Strong top-line and EPS beat vs Wall Street: Revenue $1.24B vs $1.02B consensus (+21%), GAAP EPS -$0.48 vs Primary EPS consensus -$0.74; Adj. EBITDA loss -$329M improved YoY and sequentially from Q3 (Revenue consensus, EPS consensus, EBITDA consensus*) .
  • Guidance adjusted: deliveries lowered to 40–46k (from 46–51k), capex raised to $1.8–$1.9B (from $1.6–$1.7B), Adj. EBITDA loss maintained at -$1.7 to -$1.9B; FY 2025 modest positive gross profit target reiterated .
  • Strategic catalysts: $1B expected investment from Volkswagen Group unlocked by meeting gross profit milestone (funding expected June 30, 2025); R2 development advancing with Normal plant expansion and supplier park; Autonomy platform roll-out and AI-centric roadmap announced (AI & Autonomy Day planned for fall) .
  • Macro headwinds and tariff exposure drove delivery guide-down and capex raise; management highlighted battery sourcing transition for R2 cells to U.S. by early 2027 and resilience plans around rare earths and supply chain .

Note: Values retrieved from S&P Global for consensus metrics.*

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Achieved highest quarterly gross profit to date ($206M) and 17% gross margin; second consecutive positive gross profit, with both segments profitable (Automotive $92M; Software & Services $114M) .
  • VW JV milestone unlocked: Expected $1B VW investment as part of JV funding due to gross profit achievement; incremental capital stack outlined (VW + DOE loan + ABL) to fund through R2/R3 ramps .
  • Autonomy/AI execution: Launched hands‑free, eyes‑on highway driving; management emphasized AI-centric, end-to-end training architecture and planned AI & Autonomy Day in fall ("the metaphorical plumbing for training our AI driving models is in place") .

What Went Wrong

  • Deliveries reduced: Q1 deliveries were 8,640 due to prior pull-forward of commercial vans in Q4 2024 and challenging demand backdrop, prompting FY delivery guide-down to 40–46k .
  • Tariff headwinds: Per-unit tariff impact of “a couple of thousand dollars” in 2025 despite reimbursement programs; capex guidance raised to $1.8–$1.9B to address expected tariff impacts .
  • Inventory and depreciation dynamics: Depreciation in COGS fell to $75M largely due to absorption into inventory; finished goods inventory rose ~$563M, while raw materials fell ~$220M, complicating margin optics .

Financial Results

Consolidated Performance vs Prior Quarters and Estimates

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$0.874 $1.734 $1.240
GAAP EPS (Basic & Diluted)-$1.08 -$0.70 -$0.48
Gross Margin %-45% 10% 17%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)-$0.757 -$0.277 -$0.329
Consensus vs ActualQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Billions)$1.008*$1.430*$1.020*
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($USD)-$0.90*-$0.63*-$0.74*
EBITDA Consensus Mean ($USD Billions)-$0.665*-$0.406*-$0.547*
Revenue Actual ($USD Billions)$0.874 $1.734 $1.240
GAAP EPS Actual ($USD)-$1.08 -$0.70 -$0.48

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment Revenue

Segment Revenue ($USD Billions)Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Automotive$0.776 $1.520 $0.922
Software & Services$0.098 $0.214 $0.318
Total Revenues$0.874 $1.734 $1.240

Segment Gross Profit

Segment Gross Profit ($USD Millions)Q4 2024Q1 2025
Automotive$110 $92
Software & Services$60 $114
Total Gross Profit$170 $206

KPIs and Cash Flow

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Production (Units)13,157 12,727 14,611
Deliveries (Units)10,018 14,183 8,640
Cash, Cash Equivalents & ST Investments ($USD Billions)$6.739 $7.700 $7.178
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)-$1,153 $856 -$526
Capital Expenditures ($USD Millions)$277 $327 $338
Depreciation & Amortization in COGS ($USD Millions)$186 $145 $75

Key notes:

  • Automotive regulatory credits increased by $157M YoY in Q1; JV revenue recognition of ~$167M this quarter for combined performance obligation (part of ~$1.96B to be recognized over ~3 years) .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Vehicles DeliveredFY 202546,000 – 51,000 40,000 – 46,000 Lowered
Adj. EBITDAFY 2025$(1.7)B – $(1.9)B loss $(1.7)B – $(1.9)B loss Maintained
Capital ExpendituresFY 2025$1.6B – $1.7B $1.8B – $1.9B Raised
Gross Profit (GAAP)FY 2025Modest positive Modest positive Maintained
Plant Downtime2H 2025~1 month to integrate R2 ~1 month reiterated Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
AI/AutonomyGen‑2 platform with 55MP cameras, 10x compute; hands‑free highway coming; eyes‑off targeted for 2026 Hands‑free, eyes‑on launched; AI-centric end‑to‑end model; fall AI & Autonomy Day announced Intensifying execution and communication
Supply Chain/OperationsEnduro motor supply constraints; lean acceleration; 95% R2 BOM sourced Supplier park in Normal; inventory optimization; depreciation absorption into inventory Stabilizing operations, building resilience
Tariffs/MacroPolicy embedded as “hundreds of millions” EBITDA impact; watch regulatory credits ~$2,000 per unit tariff impact; revised delivery outlook; capex raised Macro headwinds rising
Product PerformanceTri‑Motor mix uplift; R1 brand strength; positive gross margin in Q4 R1S best‑selling premium EV SUV; ASP context at $88,500 across R1 + van Premium strong; affordability need
Battery/CellsR2 cells from LG; structural pack; cost reductions R2 cells initially Korea, moving to Arizona by early 2027 Onshoring trajectory
Charging NetworkHigh uptime, expanding network 700+ chargers, 98% uptime; upgrade program, open network Continued reliability emphasis
Regulatory/LegalDOE loan up to $6.6B; JV milestones DOE loan reiterated; JV $1B tranche at 33% premium to VWAP Funding visibility improving

Management Commentary

  • “We hit our second consecutive gross profit and our highest gross profit to date at $206 million.” — RJ Scaringe, CEO .
  • “We generated positive automotive gross profit… and positive software and services gross profit… Our adjusted EBITDA losses were negative $329 million…” — Claire McDonough, CFO .
  • “We are focused on delivering turn‑by‑turn autonomy… expanding from hands‑free, eyes‑on to hands‑free and eyes‑off.” — RJ Scaringe .
  • “We expect a couple of thousand dollars of impact per unit for 2025 based off of the currently announced tariffs… we’re exploring a number of offsets.” — Claire McDonough .
  • “Volkswagen Group is expected to invest $1 billion… at a 33% premium… expected to be funded on June 30, 2025.” — Shareholder Letter .

Q&A Highlights

  • Tariff impact quantification and offsets: ~$2,000 per unit impact in 2025; strategic sourcing, incentive deployment, and mix management to offset .
  • Battery sourcing transition: R2 4695 cells initially from Korea; production expected in Arizona by early 2027; resilience through U.S./USMCA sourcing .
  • Depreciation dynamics: Lower COGS depreciation due to absorption into inventory; expected to rise with R2 SOP in 2026 .
  • Delivery guide-down drivers: Demand backdrop and price sensitivity; commercial cadence with prior pull‑forward; Amazon partnership continuing .
  • Autonomy monetization: Near‑term potential for paid features; long‑term depends on competitive landscape; AI Day planned for fall .

Estimates Context

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Billions)$1.008*$1.430*$1.020*
Actual Revenue ($USD Billions)$0.874 $1.734 $1.240
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($USD)-$0.90*-$0.63*-$0.74*
GAAP EPS Actual ($USD)-$1.08 -$0.70 -$0.48
EBITDA Consensus Mean ($USD Billions)-$0.665*-$0.406*-$0.547*
Adj. EBITDA Actual ($USD Billions)-$0.757 -$0.277 -$0.329
Primary EPS – # of Estimates17*18*19*
Revenue – # of Estimates21*20*24*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Implications:

  • Q1 2025 delivered a clear beat on revenue and EPS vs consensus; Adj. EBITDA beat relative to consensus loss (less negative than expected). Consensus models likely need higher Software & Services trajectory and JV revenue recognition cadence (company cites ~$167M recognized in Q1; total ~$1.96B over ~3 years) .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Revenue/EPS beat with improving gross margin quality: consolidated gross margin 17% with both segments profitable; Automotive gross profit positive excluding credits and depreciation, indicating core unit economics progress .
  • Guidance cautious on volumes due to tariffs and demand elasticity; deliveries lowered to 40–46k while Adj. EBITDA range maintained and FY gross profit modestly positive reiterated .
  • Capex step-up to $1.8–$1.9B reflects tariff-driven and R2 preparation investments; expect ~1‑month downtime in H2 to integrate R2 .
  • Strategic funding visibility: $1B VW tranche expected 6/30; DOE loan up to $6.6B and extended ABL provide runway through R2/R3 ramps; capital stack supports path to positive free cash flow at scale .
  • Software & Services momentum: JV revenue recognition (~$167M in Q1), charging network monetization (open network, 98% uptime), and subscriptions underpin margin resilience and estimate upgrades .
  • Autonomy roadmap is a differentiator: hands‑free feature launched; eyes‑off in controlled highway conditions targeted next year; fall AI Day is a near‑term narrative catalyst .
  • Battery and supply chain re‑shoring underway: R2 cells to U.S. production by early 2027; proactive rare‑earth mitigation supports long‑term COGS stability .