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    Rivian Automotive Inc (RIVN)

    Q2 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Feb 5, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$14.80Last close (Aug 6, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$13.49Open (Aug 7, 2024)
    Price Change
    $-1.31(-8.85%)
    • Rivian has strong visibility into achieving positive gross profit in Q4 2024, driven by variable cost improvements from material cost reductions, fixed cost leverage from increased production rates (improved by approximately 30%), and increased revenue per unit with new product introductions and regulatory credit sales (over $200 million under contract for 2024).
    • The anticipated joint venture with Volkswagen Group is expected to provide significant benefits, including material cost savings, operating expense efficiencies, and future revenue opportunities, enhancing Rivian's financial outlook and assisting in achieving profitability goals.
    • Rivian's strong brand recognition and positive demand trends, highlighted by being rated #1 in the J.D. Power appeal study, position the company well for future growth, especially with plans to expand into the sub-$45,000 price category with the upcoming R2 product line.
    • Rivian plans to shut down its plant for roughly a month in the second half of 2025 to integrate R2 production, which will impact production volumes and could disrupt financial performance during that period.
    • The company is incurring additional costs of approximately $2,400 per vehicle due to supplier contract modifications associated with the transition from Gen 1 to Gen 2 vehicles, which may pressure margins.
    • Rivian is relying heavily on regulatory credit sales, with over $200 million under contract for 2024, to achieve gross profit breakeven, which may not be sustainable in the long term as competition increases.
    1. Gross Margin Outlook
      Q: Are you on track for positive gross margin in Q4?
      A: Yes, we are confident we'll achieve positive gross profit in Q4. Key drivers include variable cost improvements from material cost reductions, fixed cost leverage from higher production rates and reduced depreciation expenses, and increased revenue per unit with the introduction of Tri-Motor R1s and sales of regulatory credits.

    2. Volkswagen Joint Venture Impact
      Q: How does the VW investment affect your financial position?
      A: The Volkswagen joint venture strengthens our financial position by eliminating balance sheet risk and allowing us to focus on launching the R2 while supporting us through to positive cash flow. It brings capital from Volkswagen, as well as material cost savings, operating expense efficiencies, and future revenues, enhancing our long-term financial trajectory.

    3. Material Cost Improvements
      Q: How will the VW relationship affect material cost reductions?
      A: We achieved a 20% cost reduction on our Gen 2 vehicles through technical changes and supplier negotiations. The Volkswagen partnership provides further opportunities to reduce costs, leveraging scale with Volkswagen and the upcoming R2, helping us progress toward our long-term goal of 25% gross margin for our normal facility.

    4. Cash Gross Profit Breakeven
      Q: Are you close to cash gross profit breakeven?
      A: Yes, adjusting for depreciation of $15,000 per unit, stock-based compensation of $1,200 per unit, and other costs of $2,400 per unit, we're much closer to cash gross profit breakeven. We anticipate hitting this before achieving positive gross profit.

    5. Average Selling Price Dynamics
      Q: How are ASPs affecting gross margin targets?
      A: Despite discounting to clear Gen 1 inventory, we expect ASPs to be consistent between Q4 '23 and Q4 '24. The introduction of Gen 2 vehicles, including higher-priced Tri-Motor and Quad-Motor variants, along with a new premium trim package, helps maintain and increase ASPs, supporting our path to positive gross profit.

    6. Plant Shutdown and Gross Margins
      Q: How will the plant shutdown for R2 impact gross margins?
      A: We'll shut down the plant for about a month in the second half of next year to integrate R2 production. This will cause some financial choppiness due to lower absorption of labor, overhead, and depreciation, but we still expect a modest positive gross profit for the entire year of 2025.

    7. Regulatory Credit Revenues
      Q: Do you see more opportunities in selling regulatory credits?
      A: Yes, the regulatory credit environment is very strong. We have over $200 million of regulatory credits under contract for 2024; the $17 million recognized this quarter is just the tip of the iceberg.

    8. Software Advantage with VW
      Q: Will sharing software with VW affect your competitive edge?
      A: Owning our network architecture and software stack provides significant cost advantages and allows continuous improvement of our vehicles. Sharing this platform with Volkswagen extends these advantages, but we believe our products will remain differentiated through our user experience and digital design.

    9. CapEx Guidance for 2025
      Q: What is your CapEx guidance for 2025?
      A: We estimate capital expenditures to be roughly $1.5 billion for 2025.

    10. Demand Trends Post-Refresh
      Q: How are demand trends since the refresh?
      A: The introduction of our Gen 2 R1 vehicles was received very positively. Strong media reactions and being rated #1 in J.D. Power's annual APEAL study indicate strong brand strength, which bodes well for the upcoming R2.

    11. EDV Expansion Beyond Amazon
      Q: What's the update on EDV customer trials beyond Amazon?
      A: We've been running pilots with non-Amazon customers this year, anticipating a significant ramp-up in 2025. These pilots help us build effective models for vehicle servicing, digital support, and infrastructure changes.

    12. Working with VW Before JV Closure
      Q: Are you working with VW before the JV closure?
      A: Yes, we're already seeing benefits from our Volkswagen partnership. Our engineers are working closely, and we have a driver demonstrator containing Rivian components and software stack.

    13. Confidence in Gross Profit Drivers
      Q: Do you have visibility into gross profit drivers?
      A: Yes, we have clear visibility into variable cost improvements from supplier contracts, fixed cost leverage from increased production and reduced depreciation, and increased revenue per unit from higher-mix vehicles like the tri-motor.

    14. New Spaces and Demand Impact
      Q: How will new spaces affect demand?
      A: We're launching new spaces over the next 6 to 12 months, allowing customers to experience our vehicles firsthand. We're also expanding our demo drive program and building out our Rivian Adventure Network.