Rocket Lab - Q4 2025

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Hello, welcome to Rocket Lab's fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. A brief question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. Instructions will be given at that time. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Morgan Connaughton, Vice President, Marketing and Communications at Rocket Lab. Thank you. You may begin.

Morgan Connaughton (VP of Marketing and Communications)

Thank you. Hello, and welcome to today's conference call to discuss Rocket Lab's fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results, business highlights, and other updates. Before we begin the call, I'd like to remind you that our remarks may contain forward-looking statements that relate to the future performance of the company, and these statements are intended to qualify for the safe harbor protection from liability established by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act. Any such statements are not guarantees of future performance, and factors that could influence our results are highlighted in today's press release, and others are contained in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Such statements are based upon information available to the company as of the date hereof and are subject to change for future developments. Except as required by law, the company does not undertake any obligation to update these statements.

Our remarks and press release today also contain non-GAAP financial measures within the meaning of Regulation G, enacted by the SEC. Included in such release and our supplemental materials are reconciliations of these historical non-GAAP financial measures to the comparable financial measures calculated in accordance with GAAP. This call is also being webcast with a supporting presentation, and a replay and copy of the presentation will be available on our website. Our speakers today are Rocket Lab Founder and Chief Executive, Sir Peter Beck, as well as Chief Financial Officer, Adam Spice. They will be discussing key business highlights, including updates on our launch and space systems programs. We will discuss financial highlights and outlook before we finish by taking questions. With that, let me turn the call over to Sir Peter.

Peter Beck (Founder, President, and CEO)

Thanks very much, Morgan. I'm gonna start today by stealing some of Adam's thunder and sharing some of their financial highlights up front. We had a new annual revenue record in 2025, coming in at $602 million, which represents 38% growth year-on-year compared with 2024. We also had a record quarter in Q4, with revenue coming up at $180 million, which was up 36% from Q4 last year. At the end of Q4, our backlog sat at a record $1.85 billion, which is up 73% from the same time in 2024. Finally, we also achieved record gross margins in Q4 at 38% GAAP and 44% non-GAAP.

As you tend to say on launch day, that's greens all across the board and a great result. It comes down to one thing, and it's simply relentless execution from the Rocket Lab team across our launch and space systems programs. Here are some highlights from that execution. I won't labor on these now, as we'll go into more detail in the up-and-coming slides, but ultimately, we launched and signed a record number of Electron missions and led the way on hypersonics testing with HASTE, and achieved some significant qualification and development milestones on Neutron. On the space systems front, we were awarded the largest contract in Rocket Lab's history, successfully delivered the ESCAPADE mission to Mars for NASA, and we had record growth across all of our space systems component businesses.

On acquisitions, we welcomed Geost in 2025, which officially marked our entrance into payloads, and followed this up in Q1 2026 with the acquisition of Optical Support Inc., which further strengthens our optical systems offering. We also expanded our machining and manufacturing footprint with the acquisition of Precision Components Limited, which actually just closed today and will ultimately support continued scaling of the components manufacturer for both launch and space systems. More on these in the slides ahead. Onto some quick highlights for Electron and HASTE. Rocket Lab remains the small launch leader globally as the only rocket delivering reliable and high-cadence launch opportunities for SmallSat. We launched 21 missions across Electron and HASTE in 2025, which was a new company record.

We also launched seven missions in Q4, our highest number of launches in a single quarter to date. There were no successful orbital launches of a new U.S. or European small launch vehicle in 2025 at all. It's very clear when SmallSat operators need a dedicated ride to orbit, they come to Rocket Lab, and we're proud to hold this title and look forward to expanding it again, the record again, further this year. The U.S. government has made no secret of the fact that faster and more frequent hypersonic testing is an urgent need and a national priority. Rocket Lab is the only credible provider that has demonstrated the ability to deliver this capability right now, not years into the future.

In 2025, we conducted three successful HAST missions, and, the next one is on the pad in Virginia, now just days away from launch. This kind of cadence and reliability positions us well for programs like Golden Dome. With more HAST missions on the books this year, we'll be rapidly building that moat even further. It was a record year for launching missions, but also for signing them. We added more than 30 new launches to the manifest across Electron and HAST. They came from a nicely diversified customer base spanning the U.S., NatSec and Defense, commercial constellations, and international organizations. We had many returning customers sign new contracts, often for bulk buys and multiple launches, but also added new names, too, which demonstrates that our small launch customer base continues to expand.

In Q4 alone, we signed a new multi-launch deal with BlackSky for four new launches, which brings the total number of missions they've booked with us to 17. We also signed a contract with a new confidential customer in support of national security. As always, our pipeline for Electron and HASTE remains strong, and we're excited to continue signing new and novel missions as well as a standard repeat and mission profiles in 2026. On to space systems. Rocket Lab is not new to being a prime contractor, but in Q4, we made an announcement that highlights our substantial growth in satellite in our satellite market and further cements our position as a preferred disruptive prime.

The Space Development Agency, or SDA, awarded us an $816 million contract to build an advanced constellation of 18 spacecraft, equipped with advanced missile warning, tracking, and defense sensors to provide global and persistent detection and tracking of emerging missile threats. It's the largest single contract in Rocket Lab's history. What's more, as a leading merchant supplier into the other Tranche 3 prime contractors, there are additional subsystem opportunities that could add a total capture value to approximately $1 billion for supplying payloads, solar power, reaction wheels, and star trackers, software, and other solutions from our broad portfolio of capabilities. It's important to point out that the acquisition of Geost played a significant role in securing this award.

Rocket Lab is the only commercial provider producing both the spacecraft and payloads in-house for SDA and for the Tracking Layer Tranche 3, supporting the government's goals for speed, resilience, and affordability in space-based missile defense. This award follows on from our previous prime contract award for SDA's Transport Layer, Beta Tranche 2 program. With the two programs combined, we now have more than $1.3 billion in contracts signed with the SDA. I think an important takeaway from this announcement is not just that we've won a significant contract, it's that Rocket Lab is repeatedly winning large awards that have historically been exclusive to the legacy aerospace primes.

We're seeing a new world, order established with defense, in the defense world, with the rise of companies like Anduril and Palantir, playing leading roles in disrupting slow, bloated, traditional players. Rocket Lab is clearly doing this in space and unseating the old guard. Okay, on to Mars. In Q4, the ESCAPADE mission launched, and the twin satellites we built for NASA and UC Berkeley are now well on their way to the Red Planet. With ESCAPADE, we've proved that it's possible to deliver, decadal-class missions on a drastically shortened timelines and for significantly smaller budgets than typical interplanetary missions. We made this possible through vertical integration, maintaining strict control over schedule and budget.

With both spacecraft now successfully commissioned and in a loiter trajectory near L2, that's a Lagrange point, around 1.5 million kilometers from Earth, Rocket Lab's primary role in the mission will soon be complete when we hand it over to the team at UC Berkeley next month. Even once control has been transferred, we'll be cheering blue and gold along as they arrive in Mars' orbit in September next year. Our role in ESCAPADE might have reached mission success, we're not quite finished yet with Mars yet. We've made no secret of the fact that we think Rocket Lab is the strongest contender to deliver NASA's Mars Telecommunications Orbiter program. An MTO will be fundamental to everything else on Mars, enabling science now and human exploration in the future.

We'll make it possible with a rare combination of proven spacecraft, deep space mission experience, reliable rockets, and end-to-end space systems capability as a vertically integrated mission provider. Our hardware and our software has enabled some of the most ambitious and successful Mars missions in history, including the Mars InSight lander, Perseverance rover, Ingenuity helicopter. Mars is in our DNA, and Rocket Lab has more hardware on and orbiting Mars than just about any other company today. Okay, onto programs. We had a key milestone for LOXSAT, which is our launch plus spacecraft mission to build and deploy an on-orbit cryogenic fuel depot for NASA. The spacecraft is now complete and will be marching steadily towards launch later this year. Okay, we also have an exciting development to share from our space solar business.

It requires some background on kind of the state-of-the-art of space solar power, so bear with me a little bit on this one. The satellite industry is rapidly expanding and projected to grow seven times by 2035. Those satellites will all need solar power. Rocket Lab is the world leader in solar space power, so it should come as no surprise that we're the best positioned to serve this growing market. In addition, ambitious opportunities are on the horizon from space-based data centers. As AI and compute demand soar and data centers on Earth reach their limits, companies are beginning to seriously explore moving data centers to orbit, where they can take advantage of the cool conditions and infinite solar energy.

Rapid market growth of this size, both for typical constellations and futuristic projects like space-based data centers, will be hampered if traditional solar cells are the only option. It's against this backdrop that I'm proud to announce that Rocket Lab is introducing a space-optimized silicon solar arrays. While silicon is not new in space, it's always suffered from low radiation tolerance and very low life expectancy with poor performance. Our team of the experts in space solar, having developed some of the most complex cells for flagship missions to the Sun and most of the missions on Mars today, the team has produced a silicon array that is a game changer.

By harnessing silicon, we're able to deliver a really low cost per watt at industrial scale, enabling gigawatt-class power generation in space at kilometer size scale, using mass-manufacturable, lightweight, and modular systems. We've also taken the additional step of developing a hybrid solar array solution that incorporates both high-efficiency cells and silicon cells. An approach that leverages the benefits of both technology. When size, weight, and power or performance are at a premium, traditional high efficiency cells are enabling. When cost, schedule, or cost constellation scale are required, silicon cells can meet that demand. When these factors must be traded off and balanced, hybrid arrays enable a combination of the two to deliver an optimal performance at a compelling value. For new products, we move into new acquisitions.

On the top of the acquisitions, no doubt everybody is interested in an update on Mynaric. The German government is still working methodically through the regulatory review process, so there's not much to add at this stage while that sort of runs its course as expected. We look forward to providing an update once that's concluded. There are a few stories floating around in the media with different theories on how the transaction is progressing. All that I'd say there is, don't believe everything you read in the media and online. Otherwise, this month, we have welcomed Optical Support Inc. to the Rocket Lab team. OSI is a Tucson-based leader in the design and manufacture of custom, high precision optical and electro-optical mechanical instruments.

OSI's technology is a key enabler for national security and commercial satellites. They're a key subsystem in Rocket Lab's payloads for space protection, space domain awareness, missile warning, and track and defense. The vertical integration opportunities here are clear, while we look forward to scaling production and capabilities to serve our customers and our own programs, as we've done with many of our other successful acquisitions. Last but not least, we've also acquired Precision Components Limited in New Zealand. Again, a known and trusted supplier to us that's now part of the family. With this acquisition, we've established a new precision machining complex that enables a huge increase in machining capacity. I think it's worth spending just a quick moment here on the strategic importance of our recent optical-focused acquisitions.

Vertically integrated, high-performance RF and optical payload technologies unlock high value opportunities for national security and commercial customers. They are key to unlocking programs like Golden Dome and other proliferated mission architectures. Owning the payload chain enables discriminating performance, plus greater control over schedule, cost for, and especially for high volume constellations. We've already seen the strategy in action with SDA Tranche 3 award, and we expect to deliver more value and opportunities to us this year and beyond. We received another strong vote of confidence in our ability to deliver on critical national security and defense programs when we were recently selected by the MDA for Shield.

In short, we're now onboarded to the program, which has a contract values up to $151 billion, giving us the opportunity to compete for future launch and space systems contracts that deliver these capabilities to the warfighter with increased agility. All of the above ultimately points to one thing: Rocket Lab is a disruptive leader in building the future for space and defense. This was driven home by a recent visit to our facilities in Long Beach by the Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth, during the Arsenal of Freedom Tour. The visit highlighted the critical support we already delivered to the warfighter today, and showcased our capability to meet ever-evolving needs in the future. Last but not least, before Adam digs into the financials, here's the latest on Neutron.

We've got lots of progress to share across Neutron, but I'll start with a topic on everyone's mind, I'm sure, which is the stage one tank update. In January, we shared that Neutron's stage one tank had ruptured during a hydrostatic pressure test at Space Systems Complex in Little River. Failures aren't uncommon during the qualification phase of any rocket development program, but I do wanna point out that this was unexpected, and ultimately, we had anticipated that this tank would pass qualification. The tank did meet its anticipated flight loads, but as we prepared to open up the test bounds and push the pressures and loads beyond this to understand the margins and the structure, the tank let go earlier than we expected.

The post-test review process identified that a manufacturing defect introduced a reduction in the strength at a critical joint in the structure. Specifically around the tank closeout, which is an autoclave-produced part that interfaces with the bulk composite laminate of the tank and the dome. The review of the hardware and test data suggested that the tank otherwise performed as expected. The first tank was hand-laid by a third-party contractor while we're getting the automated fiber placement machine up and running. It's in this hand-laid process that a defect was introduced. The decision to work with a third-party contractor was ultimately driven by schedule, as it would allow us to produce the first tank rapidly while simultaneously commissioning the AFP machine for future tank production.

Now it's not uncommon for us to run parallel development paths like this to accelerate schedules, as it can be a cost-effective way to iterate prototypes and first articles, while also standing up long-term production capability to enable fast scaling down the track. The next tank is already in production. This time, it's being built on the AFP machine, completely eliminating the possibility of this hand defect reoccurring. It's worth pointing out that Neutron's second stage was produced entirely and internally in passed qualification comfortably. Beyond changing the manufacturing process, we also are making some minor design changes to the first stage tank to introduce more margin and improve manufacturability.

To be clear, we're happy with the overall tank design, but since we're making a new one, we thought we'd always take the opportunity to tweak things a little bit and optimize it. Once completed, the new tank, will undergo an extensive test and qualification campaign to verify flight readiness, and we're gonna take our time with that process. The priority will always be to bringing a reliable rocket to market, even if it means taking a few extra months. Ultimately, the combination of the new tank and the production design tweaks, and the test and qualification campaign will adjust Neutron's timeframe a little bit. As such, Neutron's first launch is now targeted for Q4 2026.

Neutron is still scheduled to come to market in an incredibly aggressive timeframe, and what's more, we'll be bringing a robust and thoroughly tested vehicle to the pad. We look forward to sharing more development progress as we run through the final development phases this year. On to some milestones in the Neutron program over the past quarter. You would have seen over the next few slides why I'm dubbing this the quarter of qualification. We've taken massive strides in Q4, as well as Q1, so far, successfully qualifying critical flight hardware from large structures through to component-level systems. In Q4, the Hungry Hippo fairing successfully passed qualification, and then on into Q1, it made its way to Wallops.

It's an exciting time in Virginia as Neutron flight hardware starts arriving, and we can get into the final assembly and integration and test phase. For the Hungry Hippo specifically, that looks like fluid systems, and installation of canards and thermal protection systems, and then, of course, end-to-end testing. While we work through that, in preparation for the first flight, we have the second Hungry Hippo in production, for the next Neutron launch vehicle as well. Another successful qualification on the board is Neutron's thrust structure. This is a really complex part of Neutron. It must be able to withstand 2.1 million pounds of thrust, which is more than 44 Electrons simultaneously lifting off, to give everybody kind of a sense there.

The structure is now officially on to final integration, which is the final hurdle before we get into integrated system checkouts, cryogenic proof tests, vehicle hot fires, wet dress, and then, of course, launch. It'll go through avionics and fluids and subcomponent integration before shipping out to LC-3. Meanwhile, at Little River, a Neutron's interstage is undergoing its own qualification campaign before being shipped to LC-3. Neutron's second stage is hung inside this during flight, and then passes through the mouth of the Hungry Hippo and carried to orbit. Like the Hungry Hippo, the interstage remains attached to the first stage and reused, so it needs to undergo a robust testing and program so we can ensure that it can withstand the forces of launch and landing multiple times.

Stage two is in its final integration and getting ready for its debut on the test stand at LC-3. This is a specially built rig on the top of the LC-3 launch mount, where we'll go and conduct a barrage of integrated tests before ultimately moving into hot fires on the stand. That will be LC-3's first taste of what an Archimedes engine and a huge milestone for the development program. We look forward to testing that soon. Which brings me to the last, but not least, Archimedes. Right now, the engines are in boot camp. We are not being nice to them at all.

It's all well and good to test engines to expected bounds. Through experience, I've learned that spaceflight has a way of throwing things at you that aren't expected. Rocket engines don't tend to fail when everything's boring, when you can rely on analysis and simulation to bound, you know, and then truly understand performance. Ultimately, engine reliability is gained via testing. There's just no substitute. That's what we're doing, we're really pushing them through the edge cases, backing right off the inlet pressure, inducing cavitation, and generally doing really nasty stuff to them. Ultimately, you want to know how the engines are gonna perform in a really wide range of scenarios on the ground before you put them in the air and find out in flight.

Too many rocket companies have not done this, and it typically doesn't end well. This is the same kind of process we undertook when developing Rutherford, the engine on Electron, and right now we've flown more than 800 of those engines successfully to space. We'll be bringing the same level of reliability and rigor to Archimedes. Beyond the Stage one tank, we've had a really positive quarter for Neutron, progress, and this gives you a snapshot of just how much progress we've seen and made on the path to first launch. Major structures and subsystems are passing qualification, and for the first time, we have hardware and final integration. These are the final steps before we go into integrated testing on the pad with hot fires, stage tests, and then wet dress, and then, of course, launch.

Beyond the vehicle itself, we've established all the supporting infrastructure to enable first launch and beyond. LC-3 is obviously stood up, plus production and test facilities are all humming while the regulatory work is all tracking along as we expect. The things to look out for the next few months to know that we're marching steadily towards launch includes seeing more hardware making its way to the launch site. We will be conducting extensive testing of flight hardware, and then obviously, that'll lead up to Neutron's first flight. That wraps up the operational highlights. I'll hand over to Adam for the financial overview and outlook.

Adam Spice (CFO)

Thanks, Pete. Fourth quarter 2025 revenue was a record $180 million, coming in at the high end of our prior guidance range and representing an impressive year-over-year growth of 36%. This strong performance was driven by significant contributions from both of our business segments. Sequentially, revenue increased by 16%, underscoring the continued momentum across the business. Our Space Systems segment delivered $103.8 million in revenue in the quarter, reflecting a sequential decrease of 9.1%. This decline was primarily stemmed from our satellite platforms business and our solar businesses, both of which continue to perform exceptionally well despite the time-to-time programmatic nonlinearity of revenue recognition under ASC 606 and related subcontractor progress.

We're fortunate that the growing diversification across space systems and launch can often provide more predictable top-line growth, despite underlying volatility at the individual product line level. This was one of those quarters where strength in launch services more than offset the declines in space systems, generating $75.9 million in revenue, representing an 85% quarter-over-quarter increase due to the increase from four to seven launches during the period, including one HASTE mission. On a full year basis, 2025 revenue was $602 million, an impressive 38% growth year-on-year. Turning to gross margin. GAAP gross margin for the fourth quarter was 38%, at the center of our prior guidance range of 37%-39%, and an increase of 100 basis points quarter-over-quarter.

Non-GAAP gross margin for the fourth quarter was 44.3%, which was also in line with our prior guidance range of 43%-45%, an increase of 240 basis points quarter-over-quarter. The sequential improvement in gross margins was primarily driven by an increase in Electron fixed cost absorption due to the increased launch cadence within the quarter, paired with increased contribution from our higher-margin space systems components businesses. On a full year basis, GAAP gross margin was 34.4%, an increase of 780 basis points year-over-year, while non-GAAP gross margin was 39.7%, an increase of 770 basis points year-over-year. Relatedly, we ended Q4 with production-related headcount of 1,244, up 46 from the prior quarter.

Now, before moving on to backlog, I want to take a moment and zoom out and provide perspective on the progress we've made towards our long-term financial model since our Nasdaq listing in 2021. Revenue has grown nearly 10x, achieving a compound annual growth rate exceeding 76%. Gross margins have increased each year, more than doubling the contribution from each dollar of revenue. This expansion highlights our strong and disruptive competitive position in the industry, as well as our highly valued and differentiated products and services across the business. The combination of this revenue growth and margin expansion has put the company on a solid foundation and path towards achieving meaningful operating leverage and long-term cash flow generation.

Lastly, I thought it important to call out our SG&A spending as a percentage of revenue, as I'm encouraged to see this continue to trend downward as we scale the business. We are constantly driving the business to be fiercely efficient, and I believe that we're positioned to drive even more growth and efficiency in 2026 and beyond. Turning to backlog. We ended Q4 2025 with approximately $1.85 billion in total backlog, an impressive 69% growth sequentially, primarily due to our recent SDA Tranche 3 Tracking Layer contract award, which we announced last December. As we've mentioned before, space systems backlog, in particular, can be lumpy, given the timing of these increasingly larger needle-moving program opportunities. Once awarded, they can significantly de-risk revenue growth for several years.

We continue to cultivate a strong pipeline that includes multi-launch agreements across Electron, HASTE, and Neutron, as well as large satellite platform contracts across government and commercial programs. Currently, launch backlog accounts for approximately 26%, while space systems represents approximately 74%. Looking ahead, we expect approximately 37% of our current backlog to convert into revenue within the next 12 months, which includes preliminary Tranche 3 revenue recognition estimates, which we believe will prove to be conservative. In addition to the healthy sales pipeline, are expected to drive incremental top-line contribution beyond the current 12-month backlog conversion. Turning to operation and operating expenses. GAAP operating expenses for the fourth quarter of 2025 were $119.3 million, below our guidance range of $122 million-$128 million.

Non-GAAP operating expenses for the fourth quarter were $104.5 million, which were also below our guidance range of $107 million-$113 million. The sequential increase in both GAAP and non-GAAP operating expenses were primarily driven by continued growth in prototype and headcount-related spending to support our Neutron development program. Specifically, investments ramped up in propulsion as we continue to test Archimedes engines, as well as test and integration of mechanical and composite structures at our facility in Middle River, Maryland. In R&D, specifically, GAAP expenses increased $8.1 million quarter-over-quarter, while non-GAAP expenses rose $7.7 million. These increases were driven by the ramp-up of Archimedes production and testing, along with higher expenditures related to composite structures and fluids, as just mentioned.

Q4 ending R&D headcount was 1,012, representing a decrease of seven from the prior quarter. In SG&A, GAAP expenses decreased $5.1 million quarter-over-quarter, while non-GAAP expenses declined $1.3 million quarter-over-quarter. These decreases were primarily due to a reduction in transaction-related legal and other professional services fees related to M&A and capital markets transactions, paired with a slight reduction in marketing expenses. Q4 ending SG&A headcount was 389, representing an increase of four from the prior quarter. In summary, total headcount at the end of the fourth quarter was 2,645, up 43 heads from the prior quarter. Turning to cash.

Purchase of property, equipment, and capitalized software licenses were $49.7 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, an increase of $3.8 million from the $45.9 million in the third quarter. This increase reflects ongoing investments in Neutron development as we continue testing and integrating across the pad at LC-3 in Wallops, Virginia, and Middle River, Maryland, expanding capabilities at our Engine Development Complex in Long Beach, California, and build out of the Return On Investment recovery barge in Louisiana. As we progress towards Neutron's first flight, we expect capital expenditures to remain elevated as we invest in testing, production scaling, and infrastructure expansion. GAAP EPS for the fourth quarter was a loss of $0.09 per share, compared to a loss of $0.03 per share in the third quarter.

The sequential increase to GAAP EPS loss is mostly attributable to the $41 million tax benefit we recorded during the third quarter, which was due to the partial release of the valuation allowance against our corporate deferred tax assets as a result of requiring an equal amount of deferred tax liabilities emanating from the Geost acquisition purchase price accounting. GAAP operating cash flow was a use of $64.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, compared to $23.5 million in the third quarter. The sequential increased use of $41 million was almost entirely due to the timing of employee equity program-related tax payments.

Similar to the capital expenditure dynamics mentioned earlier, cash consumption will remain elevated due to Neutron development, longer lead procurement for SDA, investments in subsequent Neutron tail production, and infrastructure expansion to scale the business beyond the initial test flight. Overall, non-GAAP free cash flow, defined as GAAP operating cash flow, less purchases of property, equipment, and capitalized software in the fourth quarter of 2025, was a use of $114.2 million, compared to a use of $69.4 million in the third quarter. The ending balance of cash equivalents, restricted cash, and marketable securities was approximately $1.1 billion at the end of the fourth quarter.

The sequential increase in liquidity was driven by proceeds from sales of our common stock under our at-the-market equity offering program, which generated $280.6 million during the quarter. These funds are primarily intended to support acquisitions, such as the announced pending Mynaric acquisition, the recently consummated acquisitions of Optical Support Inc. and Precision Components Limited, as well as other targets in our robust M&A pipeline, along with general corporate expenditures and working capital. We exited Q4 in a strong position to execute on both organic and inorganic growth initiatives and to further vertically integrate our supply chain, expand strategic capabilities, and grow our addressable market, consistent with what we've done successfully in the past.

Adjusted EBITDA loss for the fourth quarter of 2025 was $17.4 million, which was below our guidance range of $23 million-$29 million loss. The sequential decrease of $8.9 million in Adjusted EBITDA loss was driven by significant revenue and gross margin improvement, partially offset by increased operating expenses related to Neutron development. With that, let's turn to our guidance for the first quarter of 2026. We expect revenue in the first quarter to range between $185 million and $200 million, representing 7% quarter-on-quarter revenue growth at the midpoint and growth of 57% from the year ago quarter.

We anticipate slight slip down in both GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins in the first quarter, with GAAP gross margin to range between 34%-36% and non-GAAP gross margin to range between 39%-41%, with a modest sequential decline driven by a greater mix of space systems versus higher margin launch and a weaker margin mix within our space system segment. We expect first quarter GAAP operating expenses to range between $120 million and $126 million, and non-GAAP operating expenses to range between $106 million and $112 million. The quarter-over-quarter increases are primarily driven by ongoing Neutron development and spending related to Flight One, including staff costs, prototyping, and materials.

We expect to see a shift in spending from R&D and into Flight two inventory throughout 2026, which is an encouraging sign of progress as we move closer toward Neutron's first flight and adjusted EBITDA positivity as a result. I'm optimistic that with the impressive strides we've made towards this milestone and currently expect Q1 to mark peak Neutron R&D spending. We expect first quarter GAAP and non-GAAP net interest income to be $8 million, which is a function of higher cash balances, as well as conversion of approximately $117 million of convertible notes since December 31st.

We expect first quarter adjusted EBITDA loss to range between $21 million and $27 million, and basic weighted average common shares outstanding to be approximately 605 million shares, which includes convertible preferred shares of approximately 46 million and reflects the conversion of approximately 23 million shares from our outstanding convertible notes thus far in Q1. There remains only 7.5 million shares or 11% of the original $355 million issuance outstanding. When taken into the additional context of the retirement of the Trinity equipment line on Q4, we have substantially eliminated debt, we have eliminated indebtedness from the business. Lastly, consistent with prior quarters, we expect negative non-GAAP free cash flow in the first quarter to remain at elevated levels, driven by ongoing investments in Neutron development and scaling production.

This excludes any potential offsetting effects from financing activities. Last but not least, here are some of the upcoming investor events that we'll be attending in the next few months. With that, we'll hand the call over to the operator for questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star 11. If your question has been answered and you'd like to remove yourself from the queue, please press star 11 again. Our first question comes from Andres Sheppard with Cantor Fitzgerald. Your line is open.

Andres Sheppard (Senior Equity Analyst)

Hey, everyone. Good afternoon. Thanks so much for taking our questions, and congrats on all the great progress, and thanks for the update on Neutron. Adam, maybe want to start with the backlog. I'm wondering if you can maybe help us drill a bit deeper in it and maybe remind us what is included in here. Does this include the 40% of revenue from SDA Tranche 2, 10% of maybe the Tranche 3, and what are you including from Neutron and Electron here? Thank you.

Adam Spice (CFO)

Hello? I'm sorry, the mic went off. I don't know how much you caught of that. All of the SDA contracts were added to backlog. What remains for SDA Tranche 2 Transport Layer is still in the backlog. Obviously, what's been recognized as revenue is no longer there. Through the end of Q4, we hadn't recognized any of the Tranche 3 contract awards, all of that value is currently in backlog, and that will start to convert into revenue and come out of backlog, obviously, in that process. As far as Neutron is concerned, I think we've spoken before that we have several flights that are representative in our launch backlog that's reflected in our filings. Hopefully that answers your question on backlog composition.

Andres Sheppard (Senior Equity Analyst)

Yeah, that's helpful. Thank you. Maybe just as a follow-up, you know, on Neutron, with the shift to Q4 now with the first launch, how should we think about cadence? You know, will you still target maybe three launches within the first 12 months after the first one? How confident are we in the development of the second tank? Wondering if maybe we should expect any step up in CapEx now with the second tank in production. Thank you.

Peter Beck (Founder, President, and CEO)

Adam, I can answer a couple of those and maybe you and Simon as well. Andres, you know, with respect to the tank, I think, you know, it's well understood, you know, what needs to be done there. You know, we had built a lot of the second stage tank on the AFP machine. You know, that really solves that problem. Yeah, the way to think about just sort of follow-on flights is it's not quite, you know, as dire as, like, moving all of the follow-on flights 12 months, you know, or to the, you know, to the first flight.

Because as you've seen in the presentation, we're already building flat out additional Neutron tail numbers. It'll probably be a slightly faster convergence into subsequent flights because, you know, none of the other hardware that's qualified is being halted. Obviously, it's just that tank. The AFP machine enables us to build a tank just way more rapidly than with a hand-laid process. You know, I think we'll be in better shape there.

Adam Spice (CFO)

Andre, I guess with regards to your question, what as far as CapEx and so forth, related to the second tank that's replacing the first one that ruptured. I mean, the benefit now, as Pete said, of being on the AFP is not only can we produce it faster, but the actual cost to produce that second tank is quite low. The first tank was very expensive because as Pete mentioned earlier, you know, it was a hand-laid-up tank. It took a long time. This will be much quicker, and also, you know, since we've now commissioned the AFP, we're really just talking about variable costs related to the tank materials more than anything else, because the existing labor is already kind of in the model.

There won't be any increased CapEx, and, you know, the impact to R&D as a result of the tank failure is actually the tank itself is actually not that significant.

Andres Sheppard (Senior Equity Analyst)

Got it. That's super helpful. Thanks so much for all the detail. Congrats again on the quarter. I'll pass it on.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Edison Yu with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Edison Yu (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you. Great quarter, as always. I wanted to ask a question on space data centers. I think you had alluded to, you know, a lot of interest. I think it's obviously become a hot topic in the industry. Can you give us a sense on how these kind of early discussions are going with potential customers interested in doing this? Is it realistic to see some type of Rocket Lab content in a space data center, let's say, within the next two or three years?

Peter Beck (Founder, President, and CEO)

Hey, Edison, thanks for the question. I think, look, we're early with data centers. If you, if you look at some of the models, there's a number of things that sort of have to come into focus before they become the logical choice versus terrestrial. You know, we never wanna miss an opportunity. You know, we've been developing the silicon arrays and power solutions for a while now, focusing on mega constellations, and, you know, these, you know, high, high volume power applications. If you stand back objectively and you think about what are all the challenges with putting, you know, data centers in orbit, it boils down to really three things.

One is cost and cadence of launch to be able to make the model close. Two is heat rejection through various means, and three is sheer power, like these are gigawatts of electricity, electrical power. You know, solar arrays of multi-kilometers in scale are what's needed. You know, we wanted to make sure that, you know, whether they leave this earth or not, there'll be Rocket Lab logos all over that stuff. You know, as far as I'm aware, there's nobody else has a silicon solution quite like we've developed.

Edison Yu (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Understood. To your point on heat rejection, I guess the radiator, is that a capability you have in-house that you need to develop over time, or is that something, you know, inorganic? Just curious on what needs to be kind of technically done there.

Peter Beck (Founder, President, and CEO)

Yeah, I mean, look, all of our spacecraft have radiators. I mean, you generate heat, you have to reject it. you know, there's various kind of ways of doing that, piping heat around the spacecraft to radiate it. I don't see that as a huge technical challenge. It's just, you know, on the scale... the scale that's required is, you know, hasn't been achieved before. That's, you know, that's the challenge there. To be clear, I mean, I don't, you know, I don't foresee us building massive AI data centers anytime soon.

Those who are at least experimenting with it and looking to go down that path, I think we have a lot of compelling solutions.

Edison Yu (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Gotcha. If I could just sneak one quick one in. In terms of just the discussions, can you give us a sense of, like, the flavor of customers? Are these kind of new customers, non-traditional customers, kind of exploring this idea with you?

Peter Beck (Founder, President, and CEO)

Yeah, I mean, we have to be a little bit careful here, but I would say that there is there's, you know, certainly more non-traditionals looking at this kind of solution than traditional players.

Edison Yu (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Thank you so much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ronald Epstein with Bank of America. Your line is open.

Alex Preston (Equity Research Associate)

Hey, this is Alex Preston on for Ron. Can you guys hear me all right?

Edison Yu (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Yep, we can hear you.

Alex Preston (Equity Research Associate)

Perfect. I know you talked a little bit about progress on the Mynaric acquisition, I was a little more interested, maybe broadly in the environment in Europe and more generally, right? It seems like there's a growing appetite for, call it, indigenous launch and national security space capabilities. I'm interested if you sort of see this trend yourselves or how you see this developing. I know, you know, Pete mentioned no other small launch provider has really succeeded in the last year, it's still, I think, focus for a lot of people.

Peter Beck (Founder, President, and CEO)

Yeah. Hey, Alex, it's a great question. Look, one of the reasons why we like Mynaric and, you know, why we think it's important, Europe and more, Europe more in general, is exactly that point. Is that, there's a lot of space nations there that have very little capability with giant aspirations and really short time frames. I think it's always everybody's desire to build domestic capabilities. The reality is, if you want to stand up these kind of capabilities really, really quickly, you don't have the decades that it takes to build often these sovereign capabilities. They're very specialist, often equipment and facilities, and also intellectual property and knowledge.

We see Europe as a, as a great opportunity for us and a real, you know, expansion beachhead, where, you know, we can provide solutions at the component level. We can provide solutions at the complete system, with respect to a satellite. We can provide launch, and you've seen, even European Space Agencies procure launch from us now. You know, once we have, you know, a footprint in Europe, proper, you know, being eligible for, participating in European programs becomes possible. No, I think, it is, it's a great opportunity. There's, you know, literally billions and billions of dollars of, you know, well-funded government programs, underway right now.

You know, the timelines associated with those, are conducive or I would say, not conducive necessarily always to, you know, creating sovereign capability.

Alex Preston (Equity Research Associate)

Got it. Then I guess it would sound like the attitude is still broadly constructive from what you said, versus maybe Europe starting to get a little more distant from U.S.-based providers.

Peter Beck (Founder, President, and CEO)

No, I think it's very constructive. I think, you know, naturally, that Europe is looking to create sovereign capability, but, I think that also, you know, the conversations we've had, they're very pragmatic and realistic that, you know, the capability they're looking to create takes a long time. You know, working with, for example, a Rocket Lab Europe, is a great way to move forward.

Alex Preston (Equity Research Associate)

Just real quick, would you characterize that the same on launch as you would on space systems, where I think there's a bit more existing indigenous capability in Europe already?

Peter Beck (Founder, President, and CEO)

Yeah, they're certainly giving it a good, a good college try, but not having tremendous success, I would say. That is just how difficult launch launch is. You know, I think launches is just so strategically important. You can build all the satellites you want, but if you can't put them in orbit, it's kind of pointless. This is the reason why, you know, you have the European Union and ESA's launch vehicles that, you know, on the face of it, aren't that commercially competitive, but they'll never go away because, you know, the nations need access to orbit.

You know, I would expect to see that persist for some time, and, you know, continue investments made into launch for the, you know, for Europe. In saying that, you know, everyone's pragmatic, and if you need to get stuff to orbit, then, you know, pick up the phone.

Adam Spice (CFO)

Got it.

Michael Leshock (VP)

Thank you very much for the call.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Erik Rasmussen with Stifel. Your line is open.

Erik Rasmussen (VP and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah, thank you for taking the questions. Maybe just back on Neutron. I appreciate the update on cadence, it sounds like with the push out, naturally, you continue to sort of build out some of those more capabilities in just Neutron or the infrastructure around Neutron. Post sort of test flight, if we think that's sort of Q4, if it's late Q4, I don't know the timing, what do you think then that first revenue flight, when do you think the timing around that could be? Also, when considering that, you know, that probably needs to have a higher level of reliability. Then with that, are you still targeting this as a recovery mission?

Peter Beck (Founder, President, and CEO)

Yeah. Hey, Erik, thanks for the question. You know, the timing of Flight two will always depend on the result of Flight one. You know, if Flight one goes swimmingly, then, you know, the time to get the second vehicle on the pad, you know, we'll endeavor to make as short as possible. If there's things to fix, there's kind of things to fix. You know, nominally, you know, the timing is, it remains consistent to what we've kind of talked about. You know, the vehicle will be outfitted with, you know, all of its kind of requirements for, you know, Flight one, even for a downrange landing.

You know, we'll attempt to do the reentry and landing burn and splash it down. Once again, if all that goes well, then the next one we would intend to slip a barge under. If we pole drive it into the ocean, then, you know, we'll probably, you know, go to a flight two, and get that soft landing right before we go and put infrastructure on. That could be costly, you know, if we damaged.

Erik Rasmussen (VP and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Maybe just on Electron, you had a nice launch campaign in 2025, 21 successful launches. What does the manifest and internal planning suggest for this year? Maybe just the mix between, you know, your standard Electron missions and HASTE?

Peter Beck (Founder, President, and CEO)

Yeah, I mean, I'm not sure how much we've disclosed about that, but I mean, certainly this year we're looking for, you know, more launch than last year. You know, as you saw, the bookings and manifest are bulging, and, you know, we're banging an Electron out every sort of 11 or 13 days now. That's going extremely well. I'll pass over to Adam, if he wants to comment on, you know, launch schedule for the year.

Adam Spice (CFO)

Yeah, Erik. I think consistent with prior discussions, you know, we see good growth opportunities in Electron, and when I say Electron, I mean Electron and HASTE. I think you'd expect, you know, increase in both standard Electron launches plus growth in the HASTE side of the business. You know, we've nominally pointed people towards kind of 20% growth. You know, I think is a pretty, you know, kind of, I would say, reasonable estimate for where we see this business growing over the near and intermediate to maybe long term. I would say, you know, we've certainly given the production team direction to produce, you know, significantly more rockets in 2026 and in 2025.

As Pete mentioned on the call earlier, we booked over 30 Electron launches in 2025, and we always get turns orders. Look, I think if you kind of nominally assume a 20% growth in kind of the launch business, excluding Neutron, of course, I think that's probably a pretty good place to be.

Erik Rasmussen (VP and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

That's helpful. Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Trevor Walsh with Citizens. Your line is open.

Trevor Walsh (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Hey, team. Thanks for taking the questions. Peter, maybe first for you. Some of your prepared remarks around the OSI acquisition made it sound like that was even further enabling you with the customer as far as just attractiveness for your services, your capabilities, even though it sounded like from the announcement that OSI was actually already in the chain of suppliers with Geost. Is the customer that focused really, then, can we assume on just the vertical integration aspect, or is there also just capabilities, you know, functionality, features of that acquisition from a systems perspective that are also attractive? Just trying to gauge kind of how you think customers.

Peter Beck (Founder, President, and CEO)

Yeah

Trevor Walsh (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

are looking at this, if that makes sense.

Peter Beck (Founder, President, and CEO)

Yes. Yeah, no, that's a great question, Trevor, and, you know, to be fair, the customers probably don't care that much, other than the fact what they really care about is, does their sensor arrive on time at a cost and a performance capability that they've never seen before? That's what we're delivering. In order for us to be able to guarantee we deliver that, the most critical element of many of these optical systems are, in fact, the optics. You know, bringing and owning that optics in-house, you know, really drives, you know, certainty for us around cost and schedule and innovation. It's. Yeah, they were a supplier to Geost, that's for sure.

you know, when we acquired the Geost business, the first thing, we sat down with the leadership team there and said, "Right, where are the critical supply chain elements that might trip us up in being able to deliver, you know, really disruptive and affordable, you know, parts or programs for our customers?" This was the number one thing. I think this makes us very unique amongst the other suppliers of payloads who are outsourcing optics. you know, it is the most expensive, the longest lead item in any of these exquisite optical payloads. you know, it was important to own it.

Trevor Walsh (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Terrific. Thanks, Peter. Super, super helpful. Adam, maybe just a quick follow-up for you. For your prepared remark commentary around the backlog and how Tranche III is gonna, you know, sounds like it's maybe conservative in terms of the what's gonna be recognized in that first 12-month period. Can you just maybe walk us through a little bit of the puts and takes of how what's, I guess, influencing that Tranche III rev rec? Is it just customer timing of when they want deliverables? What's the just give us maybe a one level deeper, that'd be terrific.

Adam Spice (CFO)

Yeah. I think we've articulated previously that typically when you win one of these programs, you can recognize revenue, you know, 10% in the first 12 months after award, then 40% in the second 12 months, 40% in the third 12 months, and the last 12 months, it's about another 10%. You got a pretty kind of normal bell curve. What I would say is that, you know, what really gates our ability to kind of move faster is really our subcon deliveries, right? What really either kind of helps us accelerate and get through these gates and milestones and rev rec quicker is our subcon's ability to deliver on time.

I think that, you know, that's all goes back to what Pete was talking about earlier, and the importance of vertical integration. To the extent that we can just own more of the platform, we have greater control. And that allows us to have more predictability to, you know, how we kind of, you know, time revenue recognition and so forth. I would say that, you know, a big job for us in 2026 is to, you know, across our engineering and production, you know, teams, is to really make sure we stay on top of what parts are still coming from third parties. Make sure that they stay on their deliverables, so we can kind of, you know, again, get the program accelerated as much as possible and get more of that revenue recognized.

Again, we go into it pretty conservative. I think, you know, what's, if you look at the pure conversion, that 37%, I think that was mentioned earlier, of backlog converting, I mean, obviously a portion of that is launch, but the portion that's related to space systems, some of that is coming from the components and subsystems completely unrelated to SDA Tranche 2 and Tranche 3. What is in there for Tranche 3 is, again, assuming some pretty conservative delivery dates from our subcons, that hopefully we can work with them to do better.

Trevor Walsh (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Thanks, both. I'll leave it there. Thanks for the questions.

Peter Beck (Founder, President, and CEO)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ned Morgan with BTIG. Your line is open.

Speaker 16

Hey, you actually got Andre on. I don't know what happened there, but all good. I wanted to ask about space systems. Seems like it came in a little bit weaker than what consensus might have expected at first. Just wanted to know the puts and takes there. I know you explained it, why might have consensus gotten a little bit ahead here in the quarter?

Adam Spice (CFO)

Yeah, I don't know that consensus does a great job in breaking out the various pieces of the business, even differentiating much between launch and space systems. Certainly within space systems, I'm not sure they really look at between kind of our platforms business versus the subsystems business. One of the things I mentioned this in my, in my prepared remarks, is that it is difficult to, I would say, I mean, you can't the, to the extent that you can control, the execution for your rev rec requirements under ASC 606, it just depends on how well your subs are executing, right? How tightly you're working with them to make sure they stay on track.

To your best efforts, you know, I think we've all seen in some fairly public venues, customers, you know, of these programs, talking about how there's been some snags in supply chain. You know, including, you know, from those, for example, like from the optical terminal providers. If you look at what we do, is we continually look for ways, as Pete mentioned, to just reduce any kind of dependency on third parties as much. Again, that's why if you look at Electron, how vertically integrated that vehicle is, Neutron will be very similar. We're getting that way more and more with our space systems platform offerings, where very little is still, I would say, outsourced to third parties.

It's really just a function of, you know, again, you work with them and get them to deliver as aggressively as you possibly can, while not sacrificing quality, or cost where you can. Yeah, I wouldn't read too much into the granularity that people may have expected from our space systems business. 'Cause one of the benefits we have now from having such a diversified business, is we really just look at the top line. How can we deliver that sequential growth of the business? Sometimes more of it's gonna come from launch, and sometimes awards are gonna come from space systems. Within space systems, you know, platforms can have a great quarter, and components can be weak, and vice versa.

you know, it just gets that much better, and we'll have that many more tools at our disposal when we have Neutron coming online, which is why obviously getting that first flight off is so important, and why we're all looking so forward to that.

Speaker 16

Yeah, no, that's super helpful. Thanks, Adam. I guess to stick with you, I mean, around the two acquisitions that were just announced, are there any financials that you can give, any kind of color as to what they were doing on a performance basis? And I guess just how much cost we might be able to see taken out as a result of them being brought in-house?

Adam Spice (CFO)

You know, our pipeline is always kind of interesting. It's got a mix of kind of more needle-moving deals from a financial perspective, as far as, you know, revenue, contribution, and so forth. These particular deals were really much more strategically around, again, vertical integration, reducing risk, versus, you know, I would say, providing big access to large external third, you know, TAMS, if you will, or adjacent markets. These are really more, I would say, reducing some margin stacking and also just taking greater control over the programs. There's not a, I would say, a material amount of revenue contribution that's going to move the needle from the deals that we just announced.

Clearly, you know, Mynaric is, would be a different story if and when that deal gets approved, because that would come with significant backlog and revenue opportunity. Again, our pipeline also has lots of other deals that have a mixture of just, you know, again, elimination of margin stacking and in some cases, you know, also more meaningful revenue contribution. These two, I don't think you need to change your models at all for the impact for these two relatively small deals.

Speaker 16

Got it. That's helpful. I'll leave it there. Thanks, Adam.

Adam Spice (CFO)

Mm-hmm.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Gautam Khanna with TD Cowen. Your line is open.

Gautam Khanna (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Yeah, thanks. Good afternoon, guys. I was wondering on the Neutron tank failure, have you guys have high certainty that it was that manual layup process and therefore, the new process is not gonna have the same anomaly? Or is the study still ongoing of what happened?

Peter Beck (Founder, President, and CEO)

Yeah, no, we undertook a complete failure tree analysis, and we're able to find the piece of tank that caused the initiation of the failure. We're able to reproduce the results through analysis and then also through coupon testing as well. We're very, very confident, we understand that failure extremely well.

Gautam Khanna (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Okay, that's great to hear. Then you mentioned some areas where you'd like to take more in-house vertical integration. Can you describe some of those product areas that might be of interest?

Peter Beck (Founder, President, and CEO)

Yeah, I think, you know, if you look across a spacecraft these days, you know, the areas that we still don'00% control of, are starting to get smaller and smaller. You know, we have a great RF team, but I think that's an area that we'll look to bolster. And, you know, we'll seek opportunities, you know, to add scale where possible. I think, you know, this is just gonna be bread and butter for us to, you know, to constantly make sure that, you know, we don't get stung with, you know, suppliers that aren't able to deliver for us and continue to vertically integrate.

As Adam pointed out, you know, our M&A pipeline is pretty full. There's a range of opportunities there from these kind of things that, you know, Adam pointed out, don't add huge revenue bottom lines, but they kind of guarantee revenue because we're not gonna, you know, miss milestones. They're all, you know, ranging through to some real needle movers that are much more transformational. You know, as Adam also pointed out, we're always making sure that we have plenty of capital reserves to go and do those more meaningful acquisitions.

Gautam Khanna (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ryan Koontz with Needham & Company. Your line is open.

Ryan Koontz (Managing Director and Research Analyst)

Great. Thanks for squeezing me in. I want to ask about backlog, Adam, your commentary there, as you think about the opportunities ahead, over the next, say, 12, 18 months. Obviously, the SDAs are very active. You know, how you think about the composition of your backlog relative to, you know, DOD versus commercial, just in terms of the next, you know, 12, 18 months. Yeah, you know, I think we're in a really fortunate spot where, you know, traditionally, government business has not really been ever viewed as a hockey stick.

Adam Spice (CFO)

I think for us, since we're coming in such a disruptive way and, you know, we're disruptive, but also the whole architecture, where you've gone from GEO to LEO and the number of satellites that are required to support that architecture, you know, has just been so strong. You know, we've got so many things that are pushing us in the back as far as, you know, kind of where the opportunities are.

I'd say overall, we've got really big commercial opportunities that we continue to chase, even though, for me, you know, if I was given the choice of chasing a government hockey stick or a commercial hockey stick, you know, I would take the government hockey stick because even though they may not be as dynamic, in some cases at a program level as commercial, you know, they always pay their bills. They're pretty clear-cut how you work with them. You know, in that government market, we're just competing with people that seem to be fighting with their hands tied behind their backs, right? We move much more quickly. We have a lot more tools at our disposal because of our vertical integration. I love the mix as it's trending towards government.

I do think, you know, it's also very comforting to have this big commercial hockey stick opportunity out there as well. I would say that, you know, it's the pipeline. When you look at the pipeline of kind of business opportunities, forget the M&A side, is it's a pretty balanced set of opportunities between commercial and government. I'll let Pete kind of provide his view, but it seems like we don't just have a choice of kind of taking one fork or the other in the road, you know, where we can, we can try to think about how do we take both of those things. I think we've done a pretty good job balancing, but maybe Pete want to speak about that.

Ryan Koontz (Managing Director and Research Analyst)

Nice. Thanks.

Peter Beck (Founder, President, and CEO)

You know, I think you've said it perfectly, Adam. Yep, I can't add anything better than that.

Adam Spice (CFO)

Great. Maybe just a quick follow-up. As you think about, you know, Golden Dome and timing and, you know, PWSA fitting into that architecture, you know, any updated thoughts on, you know, your role there or opportunities when you think that emerges as a truly viable, you know, business opportunity for you?

Peter Beck (Founder, President, and CEO)

Yeah, I think, you know, Golden Dome's quite a complex one, is obviously it's a huge program, but a lot of it is also classified, so it's very difficult to, you know, discuss too much. You know, I would say that in multiple fronts, I think we're well-positioned to, you know, have a good chunk at this, whether it be launches, launch or satellites, optical terminals, you know, a lot of the optical payloads. The SDA, when, you know, the Tranche SDA win is, you know, a clear missile track payload, which is a very complicated payload obviously, and critical for the Golden Dome.

You know, as that program formulates and continues to grow, you know, I think we're a, you know, pretty key piece of that foundation.

Ryan Koontz (Managing Director and Research Analyst)

I'll repeat. Thank you.

Peter Beck (Founder, President, and CEO)

Cool.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Leshock with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Michael Leshock (VP)

Hey, good afternoon. I wanted to ask a longer-term question on a potential future Rocket Lab satellite constellation, just given some of the recent announcements across the industry. As you mentioned in the presentation, the significant growth in satellites that's expected over the next decade. Have there been any changes to your approach on a future constellation of your own, or what potential applications you may target? Is this still a longer-term growth opportunity that really won't be a priority until Neutron is launching consistently?

Peter Beck (Founder, President, and CEO)

Yeah, thanks for the question, Michael. I think what's kind of cool here is that you know, you've all heard me say that it's gonna space is gonna get blurry. It's gonna be difficult to determine what is a space company and what is a something else company. you know, that continues, that thesis really continues to firm now that you look at, you know, data centers and all these other kind of, you know, opportunities that are growing in space. It's like it is that the large successful companies are gonna be blurry. Are they gonna be a space company? Are they a telecommunications company? Are they a data services company?

Your point is really accurate, you know, until kind of Neutron's online and we have multi-ton reusable launch capability, I think, you know, that's the time we can really lean into, you know, deploying infrastructure. In saying that, we're not sort of sitting back sitting on our hands thinking about, you know, what we could do. I think you can see in just about every avenue, you know, we at least have knowledge or components or exposure. When I say every avenue, every kind of, you know, opportunity, you know, being thought about or used in space today.

It's still too early, Michael, but, it, you know, it is, there's not a day that doesn't go by where, there's not an internal discussion about it.

Michael Leshock (VP)

Great. Maybe on the stage one tank rupture, I don't know if I missed it, but how fast can you produce the second tank now with the new AFP machine? Will that get even faster as you repeat this process over time?

Peter Beck (Founder, President, and CEO)

Oh, God, yeah. Like, it's ridiculous. The AFP machine is just, it's totally ridiculous. I can't remember the exact timeline to lay up a dome, but We measure a dome manufacture on the AFP in days. Actually, the longer pole in the tent there for a tank manufacturer is not actually laying up and curing the components. It's the joining of the various domes and tanks and barrels together and, you know, all the tabs and details for baffles and all those kinds of things actually take the time. You know, you know, a new tank, we're talking, you know, months here, not, you know, for a complete tank.

From an actual, you know, manufacturing of the raw components, it's ridiculously fast. That's to Adam's point, it's like now that it's all automated, really the only cost is the raw material that's going in there.

Michael Leshock (VP)

Great. Appreciate all the detail.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jan-Frans Engelbrecht with Baird. Your line is open.

Jan-Frans Engelbrecht (VP and Senior Research Associate)

Good afternoon, Peter, Adam, and Morgan. Thanks for taking our questions. I'd like to just go back on PWSA and just get your sort of your high-level thoughts about that program. It does seem like your focus will shift more towards the Tracking Layer, given this really impressive win, the Geost acquisition. Just how you're thinking about the future of that for Rocket Lab. Also just, we've heard a lot of, you know, government reports being issued on the Transport Layer piece. Like, how difficult would it be for a commercial variant like Starshield with Molniya, to sort of act as the Transport Layer?

It seems like there's a lot of things that would stand in the way of that, because a commercial, you know, Starshield orbits at much lower altitudes than the Transport Layer and Tracking Layer. There would be a lot of redesign work. I'll stop there and just to get your overall thoughts there.

Peter Beck (Founder, President, and CEO)

We could geek out about this for days, Jan. Yes, it was intentional for us to, you know, to move up the value chain, if you will. Not that the Transport Layer is elementary. By no means is it elementary, but it's an order of magnitude more difficult and more valuable to be able to doing the tracking stuff. The tracking stuff is critical for things, you know, as things develop for Golden Dome and other kind of programs. That's the high-value stuff where you want to be, that there's really only a few people in the nation that can successfully execute on.

With respect to, you know, the Transport Layer, going away, I mean, we haven't heard or seen any evidence to that. Obviously, you know, there's a lot of discussion about, you know, other providers. The whole point of the, you know, the SDA program is kind of-... you know, all of the spacecraft are integrated very closely with each other, even though they're from other providers. There's a set of requirements that we all must meet for interoperability. I think, I think your point is a good one, it becomes more difficult to have interoperability when you have something that's quite different. You know, it'll be interesting to see how it all shapes out.

I think for the tasks that SDA is trying to achieve, to me at least, it makes more sense to have a dedicated Transport Layer and then the other layers, of course, you know, Tracking Layer and then custody and so on top of it.

Jan-Frans Engelbrecht (VP and Senior Research Associate)

Thanks, Peter. Very helpful. Just a quick follow-up, if I may. Want to be respectful of the Mynaric deal, you know, let that play out as it will. On optical terminals, at sort of at which point and again, hoping that, like, it works out well here, at which point do you potentially look at not an alternative supplier of OCTs, or does Geost or the new acquisition, OSI, have any capability that you could look towards developing these optical terminals over time?

Peter Beck (Founder, President, and CEO)

So Geost has developed some optical terminals. Obviously, you know, we have the optics now in-house as well. But, you know, it's incredibly difficult to do. As we looked across, you know, the landscape of all of these optical terminal suppliers, of which there's really only three, you know, Mynaric just stood out as, you know, the absolute best with respect to technology. They suck at other things, like running their business, but they make the best terminals. So, you know, to go out and develop your own terminal, yep, totally feasible. It's just a time thing, and, you know, the...

It would just take longer to do that than it would to acquire it.

Jan-Frans Engelbrecht (VP and Senior Research Associate)

Perfect. Thank you. Very helpful. I'll jump back in the queue.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jeff Van Rhee with Craig-Hallum Capital Group. Your line is open.

Daniel Hibshman (Research Analyst)

Hey, this is Daniel Hibshman on for Jeff Van Rhee. Congrats on the quarter and the SDA win in particular. On Mars Telecommunications Orbiter, the $700 million-$750 million there, about. Wondering, you know, it looks like earlier this week, NASA put out an RFP for a Mars telecommunications network, so a little bit of a name change there. Sounds like that might be a multi-satellite architecture, where previously they were just looking at that one single orbiter. Anyway, what can you tell us just about how the competition and market line's positioning for that's been evolving?

Peter Beck (Founder, President, and CEO)

You know, thanks, Jeff. Great question. You know, the MTO, as you pointed out, there's a slight change there to network. As more infrastructure is built on Mars, then, of course, the a network will need to be created. You know, the MTO was always intended to be the first of more to come. Look, obviously we think we're well-positioned here. You know, we have the experience, we have a lot of the capabilities and a lot of the demonstrated capabilities. You know, I think, you know, we'll put our best foot forward there, and, you know, of course, others think they can do the job, too.

That's the great thing about competition and, you know, we'll see who wins.

Daniel Hibshman (Research Analyst)

Adam, one for you, just on the gross margins, which, you know, obviously are growing tremendously. I think, what? eight points up in 2025, and then the guide for 2026 has those stepping back down a few hundred basis points, and you called out the space system mix shift. Is there anything persistent about that mix shift, either in terms of the new business coming online, potentially with the SDA Transport Layer, that it's gonna have some persistent margin pressure? Or should we be assuming in our models that we'll be getting right back to that, you know, more normal cadence of a few hundred basis points of expansion, you know, as we get back into the later half of the year?

Adam Spice (CFO)

Well, you know, I think gross margin is there's a lot of things that are going on underneath the surface there. You know, as we continue to grow, you know, there was a question earlier from Erik Rasmussen about the Electron launch cadence. I mentioned a 20% launch cadence, the growth in that. The extent that we can do better than that, which I think there's opportunities to grow faster in 2026, then that's gonna be a positive upward bias to margin. These larger, longer term programs like SDA Tranche 2 and Tranche 3, you know, they typically come in at relatively at the low end of our gross margin mix.

They, you know, they have really good operating margin, kind of characteristics to them, or contribution margin because of the fact that, you know, there isn't a tremendous amount of incremental R&D that's kind of outside of the programs. I would say that, you know, in a quarter where you've got a lot more contribution from the big programs like Tranche 2 and Tranche 3, that'll put downward pressure offset, hopefully, by growth from, you know, increased in the Electron contributions. The components business has a quite interesting range of margins. You have some products in there that are, you know, more towards, say, 30 points of non-GAAP gross margin, other ones that are, you know, kind of north of 70 points of non-GAAP gross margin.

There's a widespread, and mix is hard to predict, you know, that far out in the year. I mean, I do think there will be a supportive trend towards gross margin, but I think it's difficult to really get a lot of granularity, kind of, you know, much more than, you know, I'd say, maybe one or two quarters out. Overall, I think, you know, as we continue to kind of grow that components mix of the business, more Electron in the mix, it's all gonna be positive. Now, I think the one caveat to that is, as we bring Neutron into production-. It'll have a margin expansion curve, you know, probably not too dissimilar to what we've experienced on Electron, which has been incredibly, you know, it's been a great margin expansion story.

When you bring a new product like a rocket to market, you do things like block upgrades, you know, that all helps, you know, bring down cost, increase performance, so you can sell out more capacity on the rocket, which is helpful to ASP and so forth. I think the most important thing in the launch business is rate, right? It's all about absorbing your fixed overhead or fixed costs related to that program or product. I think that you're gonna see. You know, what we'll start to do, our plan is to give you guys as much clarity as we can, or break out between Electron, for example, and Neutron, as that comes into production.

You can see that continued expansion and kind of that Electron business operating at model, and then the trends as Neutron ramps, as that goes towards target model as well. Hopefully, it's a bit quicker to get to target model or target margins on Neutron because it's a reasonable launch vehicle, but it will still take several years. You'll start off with, you know, fairly, you know, kind of low to even maybe negative gross margin for some of the early flights. Again, you'll see, just like Electron, it pop back up and become pretty positive pretty quickly and get to target model. It's a long-winded answer.

I, you know, I do think, again, the trends are supportive of gross margin expansion, but it could be a little bit kind of volatile and hard to predict quarter to quarter when you get more than one or two quarters out.

Daniel Hibshman (Research Analyst)

Thanks, Adam. Thanks, Peter.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Sujit D'Silva with Roth Capital. Your line is open.

Suji DeSilva (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Hi, Pete. Hi, Adam. Congratulations on the progress here. Just real quick on the Electron launches. Are there any ASP trends to note, Adam, any tailwinds in the second half, or are they fairly steady next couple of quarters?

Adam Spice (CFO)

You know, I think we're gonna continue to see, you know, a march towards, you know, I'd say, you know, as we increase more of the mix towards HASTE, that's helpful.

Suji DeSilva (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Mm-hmm

Adam Spice (CFO)

... to the ASP. I think margins are relatively consistent because even though HASTEs are priced higher, there's a lot more mission assurance and other things go along with them. Absolute dollars are higher. The gross margin percentage is relatively consistent across HASTE and Electron. You know, so I would say overall, we've seen a very nice expansion in ASP over the last several years because of the increased mix from HASTE, and I don't see that changing. In fact, you know, we continue to grow that subsegment of the business quite nicely. Again, I just given the things that Pete was talking about earlier with regards to Golden Dome and the importance of, you know, the hypersonics test capabilities, you know, that's a really strong area of growth for us going forward.

I think the overall, a positive bias towards higher ASP per launch, just as we've seen over the last several years.

Suji DeSilva (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Okay, a follow-up question, maybe it's for Pete. You know, Pete, maybe you can reflect on, versus a few years ago, to get to the launch cadence, the customer's payload readiness was something that was variable. has that changed? Has the nature of the customers changed, where you can feel more comfortable that you can hit a 11 to 13-day cadence? Is it just the higher number of customers coming in that you can kind of, load them off, or what? Just any color that'd be helpful.

Peter Beck (Founder, President, and CEO)

Yeah, thanks, Sujit. I would just say that we're, we've probably got better at looking like a duck, where it's just, you know, on a glassy pond, and it looks normal, and there's legs flat out underneath it. With a higher cadence, gives us the ability to move customers around. I would say that, you know, that's just the reality of the launch business. Payloads are ready until they're not. I think we've just got way better at managing those customers, having more whip, having more rockets integrated, ready to go, and, you know, managing that. It's great to hear that it looks smoother, but, you know, behind the scenes, there's everyone's flat out, mixing and matching and making sure that, you know, it all looks smooth from the outside.

Suji DeSilva (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)

Helpful color. Thanks, Pete. Thanks, guys.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Kristine Liwag with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Justin Lang (VP of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research)

Yeah, hi, this is Justin Lang on for Kristine Liwag. Thanks for taking the questions. Pete, curious, just back on the Neutron timeline, had you not run into this Stage one tank issue, would the program have met the earlier goal of getting to the pad here in 1Q? It sounded like from your earlier comments, there's a good volume of qualification work completed in the quarter. Just trying to assess, you know, whether there are other factors at play in this new timeline or really isolated to the Stage one tank issue.

Peter Beck (Founder, President, and CEO)

Yeah, thanks, Justin. It's kind of hard to say because when the tank leak go, it, like, you know, the reverberation went through the test stand and the entire business. The moment that happened, everybody just stopped what they were doing in a lot of sense to get onto the tank to figure out what went wrong. You know, we moved a lot of resources around and from lots of parts of the business. I'd have to go back and have a look and see if we, if we played everything forward, whether, you know, what that timeline would have looked like. It's sort of hard at this point because, you know, we had an anomaly.

Justin Lang (VP of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research)

Okay. That makes sense.

Adam Spice (CFO)

I would add one more thing to that. I think the if there's a silver lining to the tank anomaly, it's the fact that because of what happened, it, you know, it just has given the other kind of subsystem teams the opportunity to really kind of fully exercise all the demons, if you will, as much more than they could have under the compressed time schedule that we were working towards. In some ways, you know, the tank letting go will create certainly a lower risk test flight, when that happens later this year. I think, yeah, it's, it's, you know, nobody's ever happy when you have an anomaly.

It's something that wasn't planned and certainly wasn't anticipated, but I think it does help us bring down the overall kind of risk stance of the program as we move towards that first test launch.

Justin Lang (VP of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research)

Got it. That makes sense and helpful. Thanks. Adam, actually, just one for you back on the SDA award. Curious if you could speak a little bit more to the cash profile in particular and how that winds up against the revenue bell curve that you sketched out earlier. Thanks.

Adam Spice (CFO)

Yeah. Actually kind of interesting with these types of programs, because of the way that you do the accounting and the rev rec. Under ASC 606, you know, we model these things, so you always have to be in a positive cash position. When you kind of work out your milestones and how you're flowing out dollars to your subs and so forth, and spending money on the program internally, you always need to be in a position of positive cash in order to be able to recognize revenue along the way. This program is consistent with that. You know, we've gotten some questions as to whether or not the partial government shutdown has impacted our customer, in this case, ability to pay.

As they know, in fact, we had got a very large payment earlier this week from that customer. The money's still flowing, and, you know, everything seems to be green lights right now.

Justin Lang (VP of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research)

Okay. Thanks, both.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, enjoy the rest of your day.