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Rocket Lab Corp (RKLB)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record revenue and margin expansion: Q2 2025 revenue reached $144.5m, up 36% year over year and 17.9% sequentially; GAAP gross margin was 32.1% and non-GAAP gross margin 36.9%, both above guidance ranges .
  • Estimates context: Revenue beat S&P Global consensus by ~$9.1m; Primary EPS was a slight miss; Adjusted EBITDA loss was wider than consensus due to Neutron R&D intensity and mix. See table below for details (values marked with asterisks are from S&P Global) *.
  • Guidance raised: Q3 2025 guidance calls for revenue of $145–$155m, GAAP gross margin 35–37% and non-GAAP gross margin 39–41%; adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $21–$23m, signaling continued margin/ASP momentum and operating leverage as Neutron spend begins shifting to flight inventory .
  • Strategic catalysts: Five Electron missions executed in Q2 (including two launches two days apart), LC-3 opening marks a critical Neutron milestone, and Geost acquisition closes to add EO/IR payloads—strengthening positioning for Golden Dome/SDA opportunities .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Electron cadence and ASP: Five Q2 missions; higher ASP driven by HASTE mix and bulk-buy dynamics; international space agencies signed for Electron .
  • Margin expansion: GAAP GM 32.1% and non-GAAP GM 36.9% exceeded guidance, aided by Electron ASP and favorable Space Systems mix (higher-margin components) .
  • Strategic positioning: LC-3 largely complete and opened; Neutron hardware en route; GEOST acquisition closed, adding payload capabilities and strengthening Golden Dome/SDA positioning .
    • Quote: “Electron maintains its leadership... Neutron... flight hardware on its way... delivering disruptive competition...” — Sir Peter Beck .

What Went Wrong

  • OpEx above guidance: GAAP OpEx $106m and non-GAAP OpEx $86.9m, above prior ranges due to Neutron development (Archimedes engine qualification, composites) and transaction costs .
  • EBITDA miss vs consensus: Adjusted EBITDA loss was larger than S&P consensus, reflecting elevated Neutron R&D and prototype spend *.
  • Segment reporting discrepancy: Management cited Space Systems $97.9m and Launch $56.6m (sum $154.5m) against total revenue $144.5m; likely reflects internal allocations/eliminations not detailed in 8-K—worth clarifying with IR .

Financial Results

Quarterly financials

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$132.388 $122.6 $144.498
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$(0.10) —$(0.13)
GAAP Gross Margin (%)—28.8% 32.1%
Non-GAAP Gross Margin (%)34.0% 33.4% 36.9%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(23.194) $(30.0) $(27.584)

Segment breakdown

Segment Revenue ($USD Millions)Q1 2025Q2 2025
Space Systems$87.0 $97.9
Launch Services$35.6 $56.6

KPIs and operating metrics

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Electron launches in quarter (count)—5 5
Total Electron launches to date (cumulative)——69
Total backlog ($USD Billions)>$1.0B $1.067B ~$1.0B
Backlog mix (% Launch / % Space Systems)—39.6% / 60.4% (by $422.2m / $644.8m) ~41% / ~59%
Liquidity (Cash, equivalents, restricted, marketable) ($USD Millions)$484 $517 $754
CapEx (Purchases of property/equipment/software) ($USD Millions)$21.5 $28.7 $32.0

Q2 2025 Results vs S&P Global Consensus

MetricConsensusActualSurprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)$135.413*$144.498 +$9.085*
Primary EPS ($)$(0.0766)*$(0.0783)*$(0.0017)*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(31.157)*$(50.881)*$(19.724)*

Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($m)Q3 2025$130–$140 $145–$155 Raised
GAAP Gross Margin (%)Q3 202530–32 35–37 Raised
Non-GAAP Gross Margin (%)Q3 202534–36 39–41 Raised
GAAP OpEx ($m)Q3 202596–98 104–109 Raised
Non-GAAP OpEx ($m)Q3 202582–84 86–91 Raised
Net interest expense ($m)Q3 20253.1 1.3 Lowered
Adjusted EBITDA loss ($m)Q3 202528–30 21–23 Improved
Basic Wtd Avg Shares (mm)Q3 2025514 incl. ~51mm pref 528 incl. ~46mm pref Increased

Additionally, Q2 2025 guidance set on May 8 was met/exceeded on revenue and margins; actual revenue $144.498m vs $130–$140m, GAAP GM 32.1% vs 30–32%, non-GAAP GM 36.9% vs 34–36% .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024, Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Neutron readiness (LC-3, engines, licensing)Q4: “Return On Investment” barge; progress toward H2’25 debut . Q1: On-ramped to NSSL Phase 3; LC-3 construction acceleration .LC-3 largely complete and officially opened; FCC granted; FAA accepted license application; Stage-2 flight hardware headed to LC-3; Archimedes cadence 3–4 hot fires/day .Positive acceleration
Electron cadence/ASPQ4: 16 launches in 2024; >20 launches booked for 2025 . Q1: Lower ASP mix; expected reversal in Q2 .Five Q2 missions; ASP higher driven by HASTE and bulk buys; international sovereign demand .Improving
Defense programs (SDA, Golden Dome, HASTE)Q4: SDA T2TL-Beta milestones; MACH-TB 2.0 role . Q1: EWAAC and UK HTCDF selections; HASTE availability in UK .Moving SDA program to production; GEOST acquisition closed to add EO/IR payloads; Victus Haze integration milestone cleared .Strengthening
M&A / vertical integrationQ4: Flatellite platform; strategic integrations . Q1: Intent to acquire Mynaric; holding company restructure .GEOST closed ($275m + up to $50m earnout); backlog likely to skew back to Space Systems post close .Executing
Margins/OpEx disciplineQ4: Non-GAAP GM 34.0% . Q1: GAAP GM 28.8%, Non-GAAP 33.4%; OpEx within guide .GAAP GM 32.1%, Non-GAAP 36.9% above guide; OpEx above guide due to Neutron .Mixed: margin up, OpEx elevated
Cash/capexQ4 liquidity $484m; CapEx $21.5m .Q1 liquidity $517m; CapEx $28.7m .Q2 liquidity $754m (ATM funding); CapEx $32m .

Management Commentary

  • “We’ve delivered impressive gross margin expansion and another record revenue… driven by strong operational performance… on track for a record year of launches and spacecraft delivery.” — Sir Peter Beck .
  • “Electron maintains its leadership… Neutron… flight hardware on its way… first launch… closer to delivering disruptive competition…” — Sir Peter Beck .
  • “Adjusted EBITDA loss was $27.6m… better than guidance… driven by revenue increase and gross margin, partially offset by increased R&D related to Neutron.” — Adam Spice .
  • “We’re not going to rush and take stupid risks… I’m not built to build shit.” — Sir Peter Beck on Neutron schedule discipline .
  • “We’ll declare success when we’re in orbit… reentry/soft splash-down has tolerance for learning.” — Sir Peter Beck on first Neutron launch success criteria .

Q&A Highlights

  • Archimedes engine performance: Qualification complexity due to reusable profiles; confidence in performance; expanding operating envelope for ascent/re-entry/landing .
  • Backlog and SDA Tranche 3 timing: Expect awards Sept–Oct; diversity across subsystems/electron/HASTE; three Neutron missions already in backlog; demand to accelerate post successful test flight .
  • Electron vs HASTE mix: ~3 HASTE launches expected in back half of 2025; 20+ total launches targeted for 2025 .
  • Neutron cadence: Targeting 1-3-5 scale-up cadence post debut, consistent with Electron history; reuse strategy implies building more Stage 1s early .
  • Space Systems margin trajectory: Blended target 40–45%; subsystems margins vary widely (some >60%); platform margins in 20s–30s but scaled by contract size .
  • Cash and FCF: Continued consumption through 2026 likely; positive FCF more likely in 2027; P&L optics should improve post Neutron first flight; capital sufficient for Neutron scale; incremental capital more focused on inorganic TAM-expanding opportunities .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025: Revenue beat S&P Global consensus; Primary EPS slightly missed; EBITDA loss wider than consensus as Neutron R&D/prototyping increased and Space Systems bookings remained lumpy. See results vs consensus table above (values retrieved from S&P Global)* *.
  • Q4 2024 and Q1 2025: Actuals tracked near consensus on revenue; EPS and EBITDA losses wider vs consensus during the Neutron investment ramp (see estimates data). Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Values with asterisks retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Margin expansion and ASP strength are durable drivers: GAAP/non-GAAP gross margins exceeded guidance; Electron ASP rising on HASTE mix and sovereign demand .
  • Guidance reset higher for Q3 across revenue and margins; EBITDA loss narrowing signals operating leverage despite continued Neutron investment .
  • Strategic moat strengthening: LC-3 opening, FCC/FAA progress, and GEOST payloads add end-to-end capabilities; positioning for Golden Dome and SDA expansion is improving .
  • Watch near-term catalysts: Neutron pad activation and stage testing, SDA tranche awards, and Electron launch cadence (including HASTE missions) as stock drivers .
  • Cash runway enhanced: $754m liquidity post ATM; expect elevated CapEx and operating cash consumption into 2026; P&L optics to improve post first Neutron flight .
  • Clarify segment reporting: Follow up with IR on segment revenue discrepancy vs total; ensure understanding of eliminations/intercompany in reported segment figures .
  • Medium-term thesis: End-to-end vertical integration plus reusable Neutron can unlock margin and backlog expansion across launch and space systems; execution on Neutron cadence is the key variable .

Additional Relevant Press Releases (Q2 context and updates)

  • VICTUS HAZE integration milestone cleared; end-to-end responsive space capabilities highlighted .
  • LC-3 opening — critical Neutron milestone and Virginia aerospace expansion .
  • 70th Electron mission successfully launched; cadence momentum continues .
  • GEOST acquisition closed ($275m plus up to $50m earnout), enhancing payload capabilities for missile warning/tracking .