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RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 delivered modest top-line growth and better-than-expected EBITDA, with Portfolio Comparable RevPAR up 1.6% (ADR +2.1%, occupancy -0.5 pts) and Adjusted EBITDA of $77.6M; management cited urban-market strength and conversions as key drivers .
- Revenue of $328.1M grew 1.1% YoY and modestly beat consensus ($328.1M vs $327.3M); GAAP EPS of -$0.02 was better than consensus (-$0.02 vs -$0.046) as non-operating items and cost control helped the print; the quarter exceeded the prior EBITDA outlook’s high end according to management .
- Guidance was lowered across key metrics to reflect a softer macro and shorter booking windows: FY Comparable RevPAR growth: -1% to +1% (from +1% to +3%); Comparable Hotel EBITDA: $365.5M–$395.5M (from $378.0M–$408.0M); Adjusted EBITDA: $332.5M–$362.5M (from $345.0M–$375.0M); Adjusted FFO/share: $1.38–$1.58 (from $1.46–$1.66) .
- Capital allocation and balance sheet actions were supportive: $24.3M of YTD buybacks funded by asset recycling, a new $300M term loan extended maturities to 2030, and all 2025 maturities addressed; liquidity stood at ~$0.85B with $2.2B debt outstanding .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Urban portfolio resilience: Urban RevPAR +3.6% with weekday urban RevPAR +4.9%, aided by return-to-office and strong large events; conversions delivered outsized RevPAR gains (initial six +14%; Nashville +16%; three recent conversions +35%) .
- Cost control and margins: Hotel operating cost growth moderated to 2.9%; Hotel EBITDA margin only -124 bps YoY despite fewer one-time credits and one less day vs last year .
- Balance sheet and capital allocation: Term loan upsized to $300M with maturity to 2030, revolver repaid; $24.3M buybacks at $8.91 funded by non-core sale at 18x 2025 Hotel EBITDA .
- Quote: “Our ability to drive rate in this environment and control costs allowed us to exceed our EBITDA outlook.” — Leslie D. Hale .
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What Went Wrong
- Macro-driven demand softness: March RevPAR -1.3% and April prelim -1% to -2%; government and international demand softened, booking windows shortened materially .
- Guidance reset: FY ranges cut across RevPAR, EBITDA, and FFO/share; midpoint now assumes current headwinds persist through year .
- Margin compression: Comparable Hotel EBITDA margin declined to 26.1% from 27.3% YoY; comparable Hotel EBITDA down $3.0M YoY (to $85.3M) amid the demand mix and lapping one-time credits .
Financial Results
P&L and Key REIT Metrics
Operational KPIs (YoY basis)
Segment Revenue Breakdown (Q1)
Actuals vs Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global)
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Note: Company-reported revenue was $328,119,000 and GAAP diluted EPS was -$0.02 .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- Strategic positioning: “Our diversified urban-centric portfolio… and lean operating model… allow us to stay resilient on both our top and bottom line performance.” — Leslie D. Hale .
- Outlook and guidance rationale: “Fundamentals have moderated… uncertainty persists… we are adjusting our full year guidance to reflect our current outlook.” — Leslie D. Hale .
- Cost and margin discipline: “Total hotel operating cost growth was only 2.9%… margin performance… only 124 bps lower YoY.” — Sean Mahoney .
- Capital actions: “Entered into a new $300 million term loan… used excess proceeds to fully repay $100 million on our line of credit.” — Sean Mahoney .
- Asset recycling: “Sold a noncore asset at an attractive 18x multiple and redeployed proceeds into accretive share repurchases.” — Leslie D. Hale .
Q&A Highlights
- Near-term trends: March RevPAR -1.3%; April prelim -1% to -2%; rate integrity held (+1% in March) despite softer demand .
- Financing markets: Bank market supportive; high yield costs ~50–75 bps wider vs earlier in year; CMBS functioning but more fickle amid uncertainty .
- Group dynamics: FY group pace ~102% with ~77% on the books; F&B spend healthy, attrition collected, improving F&B margin by ~250 bps .
- Tariff exposure: FF&E ~40% of renovation costs; only ~10% sourced from China vs ~40% pre-COVID; mitigated via diversification .
- Transactions: Market in “pause/wait-and-see” for assets not under contract; buybacks prioritized in current backdrop .
Estimates Context
- Q1 2025 beat on both revenue and EPS: Revenue $328.3M vs $327.3M consensus; GAAP EPS -$0.015 vs -$0.046 consensus; estimate counts: revenue (8), EPS (5). Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
- Implications: Expect modest downward revisions to FY RevPAR/EBITDA/FFO following guidance reset; however, conversion outperformance and urban strength may support out-of-room revenue and margin stability into H2 if macro stabilizes .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Guidance reset reflects macro caution and shorter booking windows; second quarter likely weakest, with back half expected roughly flat on RevPAR absent macro improvement .
- Urban-centric exposure and conversions are outperforming, providing relative resilience; SF/Northern CA trajectory improving with citywide and AI-led corporate events .
- Balance sheet flexibility is strong: maturities extended to 2030, revolver repaid, $0.85B liquidity; ~75% of debt fixed/hedged, weighted avg rate ~4.5% .
- Capital returns are active and leverage-neutral via recycling: $24.3M YTD buybacks and a new $250M authorization provide downside support in volatile markets .
- Expect analysts to lower FY EBITDA/FFO targets inline with the updated ranges; watch for any stabilization in government and international segments and booking window normalization .
- Near-term trading: The guide-down is a negative catalyst; potential offsets include continued conversion ramp and urban demand strength; volatility likely around monthly demand reads (Mar/Apr softness) .
- Medium-term thesis: Urban demand tailwinds, constrained new supply, and revenue management discipline underpin rate integrity; RLJ’s portfolio/operating model should compound value as macro clarity improves .
Additional Q1 2025 items: Quarterly dividend declared ($0.15 common; $0.4875 preferred) and CFO retirement announced (May transition), both communicated during the period .