Gibraltar Industries - Q1 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Greetings, welcome to the Gibraltar Industries First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Carolyn Capaccio of LHA. Thank you, Carolyn. You may begin.

Carolyn Capaccio (Investor Relations Representative)

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. With me on the call is Bill Bosway, Gibraltar Industries Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer, and Tim Murphy, Gibraltar's Chief Financial Officer. The earnings press release that was issued this morning, as well as the slide presentation that management will use during the call, are both available in the investors section of the company's website, gibraltar1.com. Gibraltar's earnings press release and remarks contain non-GAAP financial measures. Tables of reconciliation of GAAP to adjusted financial measures can be found in the earnings press release that was issued today. Also, as noted on slide 2 of the presentation, the earnings press release and slide presentation contain forward-looking statements with respect to future financial results.

These statements are not guarantees of future performance. The company's actual results may differ materially from the anticipated events, performance, or results expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements. Gibraltar advises you to read the risk factors detailed in its SEC filings, which can also be accessed through the company's website. Now, I will turn the call over to Bill Bosway. Bill?

Bill Bosway (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Thanks, Carolyn. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining today's call. We'll start with an overview of the first quarter 2023 results. Tim will take you through our financial performance, and I'll walk you through our 2023 outlook, and we'll open the call for your questions. Let's turn to slide 3, titled First Quarter 2023 Results. We got off to a good start in the quarter and delivered the net sales, earnings, and cash performance we expected going into the year and saw a 20% sequential growth and order backlog as the pace of business really started to increase. For the quarter, we delivered 14% Adjusted operating income improvement, 17% Adjusted EPS growth, and 12% free cash flow margin on a net sales decrease of 8%.

We also paid down a large portion of our revolver draw and funded additional purchases on our share repurchase authorization. Current trends in our end markets and positive customer order activity are also developing as expected and align and support our expectations and 2023 guidance. Let me give you a quick snapshot of our end markets. Start with renewables. Bookings increased at a very solid pace during the quarter and nearly doubled sequentially. As a result, our backlog increased 34% sequentially, and year-over-year backlog comparisons are expected to turn positive as the pace of business continues to strengthen. We also continue to partner and align with customers who are advancing through the UFLPA learning curve and securing panels from other sources for their respective projects. In residential, we're starting to see positive market momentum.

Recent customer point-of-sale results are illustrating positive end market growth as the residential season begins. Channel inventory is back in balance with seasonal norms. Participation gains with new and existing customers are beginning to have an impact. The acquisition of QAP has expanded our presence in new geographies and end markets. In AgTech, we saw good momentum across our commercial business, our largest greenhouse segment today. In the quarter, we experienced some project rescoping as a couple of our customers increased the size and capability of their growing designs. When finalized, we expect bookings and backlog to increase and drive demand this year, as the active project pipeline is currently at its highest level in company history, driven by large produce and cannabis projects. Our infrastructure business is experiencing solid demand momentum and is expected to continue as new bookings accelerate and drive order backlog accordingly.

This business is really set up for a good year. In summary, we, you know, we delivered good results in the first quarter by executing our key initiatives and staying focused on what matters most. We continue to simplify and focus. We delivered the first quarter in line with our expectations. As a result, we remain confident in our full year guidance as well. With that, I'll turn over to Tim for a review of our results. Tim?

Tim Murphy (SVP and CFO)

Thanks, Bill, and good morning, everyone. I'll take you through our consolidated and segment results starting on slide 4. Adjusted first quarter sales decreased 8% to $290.8 million. Organic sales decreased 12%, partially offset by the impact of Quality Aluminum Products revenue in residential and sales growth in the infrastructure business. The organic decrease related to volume impacts from end market dynamics in the renewable segment, customer rescoping and reprioritizing produce growing projects in the ag tech business, and a return to historical seasonal demand patterns and channel inventory correction in the residential business. Backlog at quarter end was $359 million, down approximately 17% versus the first quarter of 2022, but up 20% sequentially as the pace of business began to accelerate in the quarter, specifically in the renewables and infrastructure business.

Adjusted operating income and Adjusted EBITDA dollars each increased 14% in the first quarter, with Adjusted EPS up 17%. Margin improvement in the quarter was driven by continued solid execution in renewables, ag tech, and infrastructure segments, the residential margins delivering as anticipated. Weighted average shares outstanding decreased 6.1% to 31 million shares in the first quarter. I'll review our share repurchase program in a moment. Now let's review each segment starting with slide 5, the renewables segment. The decrease in sales was impacted by 2 variables. First, the slowing of bookings in the second half of 2022 once the Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act, or UFLPA, went into effect in June. The second, adverse and late winter weather delaying construction of projects in the regions impacted.

The pace of activity in bookings strengthened throughout the quarter, with bookings nearly doubling sequentially as customers secured panel from a variety of sources. As a result, backlog also improved and grew 34% sequentially during the quarter. We continue to work with customers who are coming up the UFLPA learning curve and expect year-over-year backlog comparisons to turn positive as we move through the year. As we've stated, our backlog consists of only of signed contracts with deposits. We don't include purchase orders without a signed contract and deposit, MSAs without specific work orders or verbal agreements with customers in our new bookings or backlog. As we expected, we improved segment profitability with adjusted operating and EBITDA margins increasing 920 and 1,020 basis points year-over-year, respectively.

Margins were driven by 80/20 initiatives, field operations productivity, and improved supply chain management. Margins declined on a sequential basis as overall volume declined 31% and the weather our installation crews faced was more challenging than in the fourth quarter. We expect sales and margin trends to strengthen throughout the year as customers continue to make more progress with the UFLPA importation, continue to establish additional sources of panel supply, and we continue to enhance and integrate IT operating systems, accelerate best practices in supply chain management, and execute insourcing initiatives. Let's move to slide 6 to review our residential segment. Segment sales were flat with last year. Quality Aluminum Products contributed 8% growth, and we were able to drive additional participation gains across the business.

These two contributors offset the decline in organic sales that was driven by the industry headwinds going into the year. The overall channel inventory correction, the market's return to normal seasonal patterns, market price reductions tied to commodities, and a late winter weather surge in key regions of the U.S. End-user demand in the repair remodel markets remained solid, and recent customer point-of-sale data reflects positive growth over last year. We also continue to see a number of opportunities to gain participation and expect to have success in 2023 similar to that in recent years. Adjusted operating and EBITDA margins contracted 230 and 190 basis points respectively, with Quality Aluminum Products contributing about half of the decrease.

The organic decrease was anticipated as price material costs continued to realign during commodity price deflation and the market returned to its normal seasonal demand pattern with a somewhat slower seasonal start. On a sequential basis, margins expanded 310 and 300 basis points respectively as price material cost alignment improved during the first quarter. The integration of Quality Aluminum Products is going well. We continue to identify additional opportunities to create value. We expect margins to improve throughout the year as volume accelerates during seasonal peaks, price material cost comes into better alignment, and the Quality Aluminum Products integration benefits are realized. We also expect to continue to standardize our systems on a common ERP platform over the course of the year in our residential business, which we expect will drive further efficiencies in the future.

Let's move to slide 7 to review our AgTech segment. Adjusted sales decreased 18% as produce customers resized existing fruit and vegetable projects to prioritize the launch of future growing facilities, driving temporary project start delays. While backlog decreased 31% year-over-year and 3% sequentially, bookings and accordingly backlog are expected to increase in the coming quarters as the active project pipeline is at its highest level in company history, driven by produce and cannabis projects. Segment adjusted operating and EBITDA margins increased 440 and 510 basis points respectively through stronger business mix, additional improvements in operating systems which are now fully unified across the business, supply chain productivity and efficiency improvements, we continue to expect solid margin performance in 2023. Let's move to slide 8 to review our infrastructure segment.

Segment sales increased 8.7%, driven by strong demand, participation gains, and the positive impact of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. As we expected, momentum continues, with backlog increasing 38% year-over-year as state governments gain access to federal funding and strong demand persists in both fabricated and non-fabricated product lines. We expect continued strength this year from increased infrastructure spending related to the Infrastructure Act and our ongoing efforts to increase market participation. Segment adjusted operating income more than doubled and adjusted operating and EBITDA margin improved 800 and 760 basis points respectively, driven by volume, strong progress in 80/20, and supply chain initiatives with improved price management. We expect continued strength and profitability through the rest of the year. Let's move to slide 9 to discuss our balance sheet and cash flow.

At March 31, we had $344 million available on our revolver and cash on hand of $7 million. During the quarter, we generated $38 million in cash from operations through a combination of margin improvement and $8 million generated from reductions in working capital. Accounts payable is beginning to return to more normal levels from the depressed level at year-end related to the timing of our destocking of inventory. As a result, our free cash flow generation during the first quarter was strong and counter-seasonal to 0.3% sales. We used the cash generated along with cash on hand to pay down $39 million on our revolver during the quarter. At quarter end, we had $52 million outstanding on our revolver for net leverage under one quarter of a turn.

We remain focused on driving continued improvement in our operating cash generation on stronger profitability in 2023 with lower investment and working capital. Are targeting free cash flow in excess of 10% of sales for the year. We continue to expect to use generated cash flow to repay outstanding borrowings, fund investments in organic and inorganic growth, along with opportunistic stock purchases, supplemented as needed by the use of our revolver, depending on timing of any M&A or repurchases. Let's move to slide 10. We'll update you on the share repurchase program. During the quarter, we repurchased approximately 154,000 shares with a market value of $7.4 million at an average price of $47.99. We funded this repurchase through operating cash flow.

From inception of the buyback to the end of the first quarter, we've expended approximately 47% of our $200 million authorization. At quarter end, we had 30.8 million shares outstanding with a weighted average shares of 31 million shares during the quarter. Now I'll turn the call back to Bill.

Bill Bosway (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Thanks, Tim. Let's move to slide 11 to discuss our 2023 strategy and priorities. You know, as we said in our, on our fourth quarter call, we have successfully managed change and uncertainty by maintaining our focus on simplification. While, you know, the external environment has settled somewhat in terms of inflation and supply chain, there still remains some areas of fluidity. That requires us to stay this course as we drive momentum and participation gains in all of our markets. Really, our priorities and our focus for 2023 are unchanged. Number 1, drive growth, quality of earnings and margin improvement, and strong cash performance. Secondly, execute our 80/20 initiatives, win more participation, expand margin, drive service levels higher. You know, 80/20 remains our foundation. It serves us well when end markets are dynamic regardless of what direction they're going.

Third, stay the course with our investments in digital transformation. Our ERP, CRM, and HRIS system improvements are really gonna help us scale our business with speed and agility and productivity. Fourth, strengthen the organization in terms of diversity of thought, experience and capability through education development, and with the addition of new members to the team. Fifth, just continue to conduct business in the right and responsible way, with discipline and focus. It's really a non-negotiable inside our four walls. Now let's move to slide 12 to review our 2023 guidance. Customer bookings and demand across the business are shaping up as we anticipated, and we are on track for a solid second quarter. Given this, along with our first quarter performance, our outlook for 2023 is unchanged. It assumes modest full-year growth, continued margin expansion, and strong cash performance.

To recap, our guidance is as follows: A consolidated net sales range of $1.36 billion-$1.41 billion, compared to $1.38 billion in 2022. Assuming down organic scenario at the low end and modest growth at the high end, with momentum building through the year. GAAP operating margin expansion in a range between 9.9% and 10.1%, compared to 9.4% in 2022. An adjusted operating margin expansion to a range of 11%-11.2%, compared to 10.9% in 2022. GAAP EPS in a range between $3.04 and $3.24, compared to $2.56 in 2022.

An Adjusted EPS to a range between $3.46 and $3.66, compared to $3.40 in 2022. Finally, free cash flow as a percent of net sales of 10%, compared to 6% in 2022. My thanks and appreciation go out to our entire team for the focus, the enthusiasm and frankly, really good results. As an organization, you know, we continue to demonstrate agility, resilience and fortitude in everything we're doing, and we're gonna continue to build on a good start to 2023. With that, now let's open up the call, and we'll take your questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. The confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star twoif you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star key. One moment please while we poll for questions. Thank you. Our first question is from Dan Moore with CJS Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Lee Jagoda (Senior Managing Director)

Hi, good morning. It's actually Lee Jagoda for Dan this morning. First question is on the renewable side. Looks like the backlog's really coming together nicely. Can you just talk through your updated thoughts related to the pain points of turning some of that backlog into revenue and how you envision that timeline playing out through the balance of the year?

Bill Bosway (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Yeah. Lee, thanks. Our typical conversion on backlog, once an order is brought in across the finish line, is anywhere from 3-9 months. It really depends on the size of the project, and they do range, but. You start to see backlog build at the beginning of the year. You're likely to see that turn to revenue, you know, in the 3-9-month period following thereafter. Some could extend beyond, but that's the general way to think about it.

Lee Jagoda (Senior Managing Director)

At the moment, there's nothing in the supply chain or otherwise that would prevent that timeline from kind of playing out as normal this year?

Bill Bosway (Chairman, President, and CEO)

No, I think once, you know, once you get the contract signed, that's why we try to emphasize that's the signed contract with a, with a, with a deposit in hand, what that entails is a customer at that point has a panel. That's been, you know, the dilemma the last couple of years is, that's a big change from the way business was done, prior to this UFLPA thing happening. Really there hasn't been any other things, you know, holding that up, as there once was. That's getting better. Once the contract's signed, you have pretty good runway to execute accordingly.

Lee Jagoda (Senior Managing Director)

Got it. That's very helpful. Just one more question regarding capital allocation. Just given the net leverage is trending towards net neutral, wondering your thoughts on the M&A environment, the opportunities you see out there, sort of the areas that look attractive to you. Then, from a multiple perspective, are you seeing anything in the market that gives you some hope in terms of multiples coming down and having it make pretty good sense from a return perspective?

Bill Bosway (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Yeah. On a broader front, you know, we started to see the M&A environment slow last year as interest rates came up, as you would expect. I do think there'll be some opportunities later in the year what we're anticipating. We have a pretty well-defined group of targets that we've actually, you know, had discussion with in the past, but processes were stopped last year. I think some of those processes may start up, and I think there'll be some additional new opportunities that will pop up. You know, that time element that you just referred to is a combination of, you know, people anticipating what may happen with interest rates. There's valuation, you know, shifts, and corrections that probably need to occur depending on the macro environment.

There's a few things in play there that I think are holding some of this back. We'll see how things evolve. You know, in terms of where and the type of folks that we'd like to work with on that front, we have a pretty good idea of what we'd like to do.

Lee Jagoda (Senior Managing Director)

Okay. Thanks very much. I will hop back in the queue.

Bill Bosway (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. Our next question is from Julio Romero with Sidoti & Company. Please proceed with your question.

Julio Romero (Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks. Hey, good morning, Bill and Tim. Maybe to start on residential, really nice performance and sequential improvement there. If you could just speak to how far along you are with regards to price cost alignment. Do you think first quarter results kind of represents the bulk of that alignment? Just help us get a sense of kind of what inning we're in and how much more uplift to the margin there may be to come from price cost alignment.

Bill Bosway (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Julio, you remember we said going into the year that, you know, our plan is built on us in residential growing and improving margin year-over-year, right? Let's keep that as your backdrop. We also said that Q4 was where this, you know, the start of the nine-inning game happened, and Q1 would be the kind of the second half of that nine-inning game, and we would expect, you know, the transition to almost be complete. You'll see more improvement in Q2, 3, and it's just gonna get better beyond that. Price cost alignment with the channel, you know, rebalancing of inventory, offsetting the as well as the, you know, commodity price deflation that we saw in 2022, the second half.

That's, you know, flushing through, I think, pretty well as we had anticipated. I think, you know, in Q2 onward, is where you'll see the turn and the improvement kick in, which supports our plan as we had going into the year.

Julio Romero (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. That's really helpful. Then if you could just speak to the runway for participation gains you have in the segment?

Bill Bosway (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Yeah. Yeah. We're pretty excited about that. You know, it's been part of our playbook. As you know, we've talked about this a lot, the last three years, and I think, you know, the momentum is very strong there as well. It's a combination of things. New customers as well as.

Julio Romero (Equity Research Analyst)

Sure

Bill Bosway (Chairman, President, and CEO)

... existing, just having an opportunity to do more with them. Then there's an opportunity in some different regions. You remember when we bought QAP, one of the things that we've talked a lot about is there's some new segments we've gotten into, i.e. manufactured housing. There's some new geographies that we are now more present in the upper Midwest and in parts of the East that we weren't before. Yeah, just a lot of good work that really started last year. Anytime you have a major shift in market price points, you know, PLRs start to open up, and those will just create a lot of opportunities. So we've been pretty aggressive making sure we're at the doorstep of every customer opportunity.

I think we're gonna have pretty good success this year as we've had the last couple years.

Julio Romero (Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Do you still expect the segment to have some reversion of seasonality this year? In other words, kind of better Q2.

Bill Bosway (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Yeah

Julio Romero (Equity Research Analyst)

... Q3 and kind of a more seasonal Q4?

Bill Bosway (Chairman, President, and CEO)

I think the industry's back to that. You know, assuming we don't have another, you know, global supply chain issue that affects the world, I think the seasonality will return to what it's historically been for the last 50 years, which is typically a slower Q1, and then you start to build as the season tends to start, and again, it's a little bit regional, but tends to start late March. We had a little bit of delay in that this year because if you go back and look at where we had some pretty big snow events, they happened in the last couple weeks of March, which you could argue it happens every year. It pushes that seasonality, the start of that season can be pushed a couple weeks one way or the other, but you tend to start up there.

Q2 and Q3 are your strongest, and Q4 is a little bit more weather dependent. It can go as long as the weather holds out because it's all construction season. Q2 and 3 are your peak. Q4 is probably solid, and then Q1 is always your lowest. I think the industry will get back to those norms this year and going forward, barring any major, again, supply chain disruption issue.

Julio Romero (Equity Research Analyst)

Great. If I could just sneak one more in here on renewables, just wondering how, you know, speak to how the panel supply expectations are trending relative to three months ago, if that issue is getting better, worse than expected or steady state.

Bill Bosway (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Yeah, it's, I would say it's improving. The tier one guys, which account for large portion of the volume that comes into the U.S., a couple of those, one in particular is having more success, and that's really good. I would say it's on track with where we thought. If you remember, we said, look, the first half of the year, the industry will still be going through that process and going through the learning curve. It'll start to accelerate in the second half. I would say it's playing out that way right now. That's really for panels that are coming from or through the traditional channels where, we've been impacted by the UFLPA, et cetera.

In parallel to that, a lot of customers, and it really does depend who you're partnered with, because not every customer necessarily has the same supply chain management capability. But if you're partnered with the right folks or you're fortunate to be partnered with the right folks, those folks have really worked hard in the last 18 months to find other sources from other parts of the world as well. We're seeing some of our larger customers have some success there, and I think that's why, you know, bookings really started to accelerate in Q1. Frankly, you know, at a faster rate than we anticipated. That's all towards goodness. At, yeah, I'd say things are getting better.

We still have a ways to go, but that's how our plan was built, as you know, going into the year. That would be, first half slow, second half would accelerate. You know, I'd say we're there, if not maybe a little ahead of that.

Julio Romero (Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. Good color there. I'll pass it on. Thanks very much for taking the questions.

Bill Bosway (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I'd like to hand the floor back over to Mr. Bosway for any closing comments.

Bill Bosway (Chairman, President, and CEO)

Again, thank you everyone for joining us today. We do expect to present at the KeyBanc Industrials and Basic Materials Conference in June, and then at the CJS Summer New Ideas Conference in July. Look forward to updating you again when we report our second quarter results. Thank you and have a great day.

Operator (participant)

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.