RO
RETAIL OPPORTUNITY INVESTMENTS CORP (ROIC)·Q2 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 2024 delivered steady operations but softer earnings: total revenues rose to $83.3M (+1.6% YoY), GAAP diluted EPS fell to $0.06 (vs $0.08 YoY), and FFO/share declined to $0.25 (vs $0.27 YoY) .
- Leasing momentum remained strong: portfolio lease rate increased to 97.0% (from 96.4% in Q1), with 12.4% cash rent growth on same-space new leases and 5.8% on renewals; same-center cash NOI grew 1.7% YoY .
- Guidance was refined: 2024 FFO/share range narrowed to $1.04–$1.07 (lower end raised, upper end reduced) and GAAP EPS guided to $0.25–$0.28, reflecting muted acquisition activity and expected back-half downtime from anchor re-leasing .
- Balance sheet positioning: a $26M mortgage was retired; 98.7% of GLA is unencumbered; net principal debt/annualized EBITDA at 6.6x; management targeting a long-term public bond to refinance $250M notes due Dec-2024 and potentially the $200M term loan concurrently .
- Market narrative: management highlighted robust West Coast demand (fitness, wellness, children enrichment, digital kitchens), while rate uncertainty keeps sellers sidelined—reducing external growth near term and shifting focus to mark-to-market opportunities on anchors over 2025–2026 .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Strong leasing and rent growth: 131 leases, 392.7K sf; same-space cash base rents up 12.4% on new leases and 5.8% on renewals; lease rate rose to 97.0% .
- Management tone and pipeline: “leasing space at a near record pace… already leased over 776,000 square feet YTD” and aiming for “another strong, potentially record-setting year” in leasing .
- Portfolio enhancement: acquired dual-grocery-anchored Bressi Ranch Village Center for $70.1M (98.4% leased); subsequently sold a property for ~$56.6M at a low-6% cap, recycling capital into higher-quality assets .
What Went Wrong
- Earnings compression: GAAP diluted EPS fell to $0.06 (vs $0.08 YoY) and FFO/share to $0.25 (vs $0.27 YoY), impacted by higher interest expense and timing of anchor re-leasing commencements .
- External growth stall: high financing costs and seller pricing expectations muted acquisitions; guidance high end lowered as the company now assumes no additional acquisitions in H2 2024 .
- Tenant headlines risk: ongoing Rite Aid/Big Lots watchlists; while exposure is limited and backfills are lined up, investor concern persists; bad debt midpoint nudged down, but bankruptcy/closure headlines require monitoring .
Financial Results
Segment/Reporting Detail (NOI and Cash NOI):
Balance Sheet and Debt KPIs:
Leasing KPIs:
Dividends:
Note: S&P Global consensus estimates for ROIC were unavailable via our tool integration for Q2 2024; therefore, no estimate comparisons are shown.
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Demand for space continues to propel our business… achieving a 12.4% increase in same-space new leases during the second quarter, representing our 50th consecutive quarter of achieving releasing rent growth.” — Stuart A. Tanz, CEO .
- “We currently only have 1 mortgage… 94 of our 95 shopping centers are unencumbered… objective is to refinance the [Dec] bonds through long-term public bond offering, preferably a 10-year deal.” — Michael B. Haines, CFO .
- “There’s no shortage of demand… destination tenants… fitness, self-care, wellness… digital kitchen concepts… strategically seeking to expand only in select West Coast markets.” — Richard K. Schoebel, COO .
- “We are now assuming no additional acquisition activity… Accordingly, we have lowered the high end of our initial FFO guidance.” — Stuart A. Tanz, CEO .
Q&A Highlights
- Same-store NOI trajectory: Management kept 1–2% FY guide; expects H2 to be “not as strong” as H1 due to comp dynamics and downtime from anchor re-leasing .
- Guidance sensitivity to net investments: Removing acquisition activity pulled down the high end; each $100M net investment added ~$0.01 FFO/share under prior assumptions .
- Tenant credit updates: Minimal exposure to recently troubled names; receivables consistent with historical averages; Big Lots Lacey backfill lined up, lease termination fee not in guidance .
- Kohl’s backfill timing: LOI signed for 115K sf; rent commencement targeted late 2025; significant TI contemplated .
- Debt refinancing: Expect unsecured pricing around ~6% based on market, with swaps rolling off; targeting refinancing of 2024 bonds and term loan to push maturities out .
Estimates Context
- We attempted to retrieve S&P Global consensus for ROIC’s Q2 2024 EPS/FFO/revenue but the mapping was unavailable via our integration, so consensus comparisons are not shown. Values would normally be retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Leasing strength and durable rent spreads underpin medium-term NOI growth; expect re-acceleration in 2025 as anchor commencements hit, with fuller run-rate in 2026 .
- Near-term earnings constrained by higher interest expense and re-leasing downtime; H2 same-store likely softer than H1, but the guide still targets 1–2% for FY .
- External growth muted given rates and seller expectations; capital recycling continues (sell low-growth, buy irreplaceable grocery-anchored assets), improving portfolio quality .
- Balance sheet risk manageable: plan to term out Dec-2024 notes and possibly the term loan; monitor timing and pricing—successful execution reduces refinancing overhang .
- Demand drivers remain robust in core West Coast markets (necessity + destination tenants); limited exposure to troubled banners and proactive backfills mitigate tenant risk .
- Dividend maintained at $0.15/share; payout ratio reasonable vs FFO; watch for potential adjustments only if macro or refinancing costs materially change .
- Trading setup: near-term prints may be uninspiring vs strong H1, but visible catalysts (anchor mark-to-market, refinancing clarity) could shift sentiment; use weakness to accumulate if bond/refi execution and leasing commencements track plan .
References:
Press release and supplemental (Q2 2024): **[1407623_0001407623-24-000081_roic-63024xpressreleasexex.htm:0]** **[1407623_0001407623-24-000081_roic-63024xpressreleasexex.htm:1]** **[1407623_0001407623-24-000081_roic-63024xpressreleasexex.htm:2]** **[1407623_0001407623-24-000081_roic-63024xpressreleasexex.htm:4]** **[1407623_0001407623-24-000081_roic-63024xpressreleasexex.htm:5]** **[1407623_0001407623-24-000081_supplementaldisclosure2q.htm:5]** **[1407623_0001407623-24-000081_supplementaldisclosure2q.htm:6]** **[1407623_0001407623-24-000081_supplementaldisclosure2q.htm:9]** **[1407623_0001407623-24-000081_supplementaldisclosure2q.htm:13]**
Earnings call transcript (Q2 2024): **[1407623_ROIC_3394592_1]** **[1407623_ROIC_3394592_2]** **[1407623_ROIC_3394592_3]** **[1407623_ROIC_3394592_4]** **[1407623_ROIC_3394592_5]** **[1407623_ROIC_3394592_7]** **[1407623_ROIC_3394592_8]** **[1407623_ROIC_3394592_9]** **[1407623_ROIC_3394592_10]** **[1407623_ROIC_3394592_11]** **[1407623_ROIC_3394592_12]** **[1407623_ROIC_3394592_13]** **[1407623_ROIC_3394592_14]** **[1407623_ROIC_3394592_15]** **[1407623_ROIC_3394592_18]** **[1407623_ROIC_3394592_20]** **[1407623_ROIC_3394592_21]** **[1407623_ROIC_3394592_22]**
Prior quarter press release/supplemental (Q1 2024): **[1407623_0001407623-24-000069_roic-33124xpressreleasexex.htm:0]** **[1407623_0001407623-24-000069_roic-33124xpressreleasexex.htm:1]** **[1407623_0001407623-24-000069_roic-33124xpressreleasexex.htm:3]** **[1407623_0001407623-24-000069_roic-33124xpressreleasexex.htm:4]** **[1407623_0001407623-24-000069_supplementaldisclosure1q.htm:5]** **[1407623_0001407623-24-000069_supplementaldisclosure1q.htm:6]** **[1407623_0001407623-24-000069_supplementaldisclosure1q.htm:9]** **[1407623_0001407623-24-000069_supplementaldisclosure1q.htm:12]**
FY/Q4 2023 press release/supplemental: **[1407623_0001407623-24-000041_roic-123123xpressreleasexe.htm:0]** **[1407623_0001407623-24-000041_roic-123123xpressreleasexe.htm:1]** **[1407623_0001407623-24-000041_roic-123123xpressreleasexe.htm:2]** **[1407623_0001407623-24-000041_roic-123123xpressreleasexe.htm:4]** **[1407623_0001407623-24-000041_supplementaldisclosure4q.htm:6]**