Red Rock Resorts - Q4 2025

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good afternoon and welcome to Red Rock Resorts' Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Conference Call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Please note this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Stephen Cootey, Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer, and Treasurer of Red Rock Resorts. Please go ahead.

Stephen Cootey (EVP, CFO, and Treasurer)

Thank you, Operator, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining today for Red Rock Resorts' fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings call. Joining me on the call today are Frank and Lorenzo Fertitta, Scott Kreeger, and our executive management team. I'd like to remind everyone that our call today will include forward-looking statements under the Safe Harbor provisions of the United States Federal Securities Laws. Developments and results may differ from those projected. During this call, we will also discuss non-GAAP financial measures. For definitions and complete reconciliation of these figures to GAAP, please refer to the financial tables in our earnings press release, Form 8-K, and Investor Deck, which were filed this afternoon prior to the call. Also, please note this call is being recorded. The fourth quarter represented another period of exceptional performance for the company.

Our Las Vegas operations set new fourth-quarter records for net revenue and adjusted EBITDA while maintaining near-record adjusted EBITDA margin. This marked the ninth consecutive record quarter for both net revenue and adjusted EBITDA. For the full year, our Las Vegas operations delivered their strongest performance on record, achieving all-time highs in net revenue and adjusted EBITDA, including producing more than $900 million in adjusted EBITDA for the first time in our 50-year history while maintaining near-record adjusted EBITDA margin. These results marked the second consecutive year of record net revenue and the fifth consecutive year of record adjusted EBITDA, underscoring the strength, consistency, and long-term earnings power of our operating platform. In addition to delivering strong financial results in 2025, we remain very pleased with the continued performance of Durango Casino Resort and the successful revenue backfill at our core properties.

Durango continues to expand the locals market and drive incremental play from our existing customer base, reinforcing its position as a meaningful growth driver within our portfolio. On December 15th, we completed our latest expansion to Durango, adding more than 25,000 sq ft of new casino space, including what we believe is the premier high-limit slot area in Las Vegas, along with a covered parking garage providing nearly 2,000 additional parking spaces. While still early, customer response has been overwhelmingly positive, and early operational results continue to validate our capital investment into high-limit slot and table areas across our portfolio. Building on the success on January 5th, we broke ground on the next phase of Durango's master plan, further advancing the property's long-term growth strategy.

Supported by strong market fundamentals and rapid development of the surrounding area, including more than 6,000 new households within a three-mile radius of the property over the next few years, this phase will expand the podium along the north side of the existing facility by more than 275,000 sq ft. The expansion will add nearly 400 additional slot machines and ancillary gaming to the casino floor, while also introducing a range of new amenities designed to drive repeat visitation and broaden customer appeal. These enhancements include the state-of-the-art 36-lane bowling facility, luxury movie theaters, a mix of new restaurant concepts, and multiple entertainment venues highlighted by a partnership with Moonshine Flats, which will bring its signature country-western bar and live music concept to Vegas for the first time. Construction is expected to take approximately 18 months to complete. The total project cost is estimated to be approximately $385 million.

Upon completion of this expansion, we believe Durango will be in better position to capture additional market share and drive sustained growth in the local market. Now let's take a look at our fourth quarter and full year results. With respect to our Las Vegas operations, our fourth quarter net revenue was $505 million, up 2.5% from the prior year's fourth quarter. Our Adjusted EBITDA was $231 million, up 3.2% from the prior year's fourth quarter. Our Adjusted EBITDA margin was 45.8%, an increase of 32 basis points from the prior year's fourth quarter. On a consolidated basis, our fourth quarter net revenue, which includes $3.7 million from our North Fork project, was $511.8 million, up 3.2% from the prior year's fourth quarter. Our Adjusted EBITDA, which also includes $3.7 million from our North Fork project, was $213 million, up 5.4% from the prior year's fourth quarter.

Our adjusted EBITDA margin was 41.7% for the quarter, an increase of 84 basis points from the prior year. Let's turn to our full year performance. With respect to our Las Vegas operations, our full year net revenue was just under $2 billion, up 2.9% from the prior year. Our full year adjusted EBITDA was $915.9 million, up 4.2% from the prior year. Our full year adjusted EBITDA margin was 46.2%, an increase of 56 basis points from the prior year. On a consolidated basis, our full year net revenue, which includes $17.6 million from our North Fork project, was $2 billion, up 3.7% from the prior year. Our full year adjusted EBITDA, which also includes $17.6 million, up from our North Fork project, was $848.6 million, up 6.6% from the prior year.

Our full year adjusted EBITDA margin was 42.2%, an increase of 114 basis points from the prior year. In the quarter, we converted 62% of our adjusted EBITDA to operating free cash flow, generating $131.5 million, or $1.25 per share. When looking at our 2025 cumulative free cash flow, we converted 55% of our adjusted EBITDA to operating cash flow, generating $466.3 million, or $4.44 per share. This significant level of free cash flow was strategically deployed to support our long-term growth initiatives, including our most recent projects at Durango, Sunset Station, and Green Valley Ranch, while returning to our stakeholders through debt reduction, dividends, and share repurchases. In the fourth quarter, we remained focused on our core local guests while continuing to grow our regional national customer base across our portfolio.

Compared to the fourth quarter last year, we saw continued strength in carded slot play across our database, including our regional national customers. Robust visitation and net theoretical win across our local database, as well as our regional national customers, helped drive the highest fourth-quarter revenue and profitability in our gaming operations in the company's history. Turning to our non-gaming operations, both hotel and food and beverage delivered another strong quarter, achieving near-record revenue and profitability in the quarter. The hotel operations performed exceptionally well, generating near-record results despite the West and East Towers at Green Valley Ranch being offline for renovation. The food and beverage operations achieved record revenue and near-record profitability for the quarter, supported by higher cover counts across our outlets.

In group sales and catering, our teams delivered near-record fourth-quarter revenue, and if we exclude the lost room nights from our Green Valley Ranch room renovation, we continue to see positive momentum into the first half of 2026. As we start the first quarter, we have continued to see stability in our core slot business within the locals market and across our carded database. While we expect near-term disruption impact from our ongoing construction projects at Durango, Sunset Station, and Green Valley Ranch, we remain as confident as ever in the strength of our business and long-term growth prospects. Now let's cover a few balance sheet and capital items. The company's cash and cash equivalents at the end of the fourth quarter were $142.5 million, and the total principal amount of debt outstanding was $3.4 billion, resulting in net debt of $3.3 billion.

As of the end of the fourth quarter, the company's net debt-to-EBITDA ratio was 3.87 times, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of deleveraging, demonstrating both the earnings power of our operating platform and the stability of our balance sheet. During the fourth quarter, we made total distributions of approximately $72.3 million to the LLC unitholders of Station Holdco, including a distribution of approximately $42.4 million to Red Rock Resorts. The company used its portion of the distribution to fund its previously declared quarterly dividend of $0.26 per Class A Common Share and to repurchase almost 880,000 Class A Common Shares at an average price of $54.67 per share under its previously announced $900 million share repurchase program, reducing total shares outstanding to approximately 104.9 million.

When combining the dividends and the share repurchases made throughout the year, we returned approximately $296.9 million to shareholders in 2025, demonstrating our ongoing commitment to disciplined capital allocation and delivering sustainable long-term value to our shareholders. Capital spend in the fourth quarter was $78.9 million, which includes approximately $64.2 million in investment capital, as well as $14.7 million in maintenance capital. For the full year 2025, capital spend was $319 million, which includes approximately $227 million in investment capital, as well as $92 million in maintenance capital, down from our previous guidance, mainly due to the timing of capital expenditures. As we look into our capital spend for 2026, we expect to spend between $375-$425 million, which includes $275-$300 million in investment capital, as well as $100-$125 million in maintenance capital.

In addition to our continued investment in our Durango property, we are making significant investments in our Sunset Station and Green Valley Ranch properties. At Sunset Station, we continue to make strong progress on our podium refresh. The $53 million renovation will include an all-new country-western bar and nightclub, a new Mexican restaurant, a new center bar, and a fully renovated casino floor. Customer feedback and initial performance from the completed portions of the project have been overwhelmingly positive, reinforcing our confidence in the direction of the renovation and the underlying consumer demand at the property. The project remains on budget, with the remaining amenities expected to continue to come online throughout the first half of 2026.

Building on that momentum, we are pleased to announce the next phase of Sunset Station, which is designed to further strengthen the company's competitive position and broaden its customer appeal, positioning it to capitalize on the strong demographic trends and continued growth in the Henderson market, particularly from the master plan communities of Ascaya and Cadence, which are expected to deliver more than 12,500 new households at full buildout. The next phase will continue the comprehensive casino refresh, including expansion and enhancement of the movie theaters, as well as the relocation of the temporary bingo area currently housed in our former buffet space to a new permanent location.

Upon completion of the bingo relocation, the former buffet space will be converted into a new high-end steakhouse and high-limit table games room, leveraging a proven strategy of investing in the higher-end value segments of our database that has consistently generated strong returns across our portfolio. Work on this phase is expected to begin in the second quarter, with the remainder of the project commencing in the back half of 2026 and extending into early 2027. The total project cost is estimated at approximately $87 million. At Green Valley Ranch, we continue to make progress on the comprehensive refresh of our guest rooms, suites, and convention spaces, aligning the hotel experience with the recently renovated and well-received high-limit table and slot rooms at the property.

Renovations to the West Tower are now complete, and the tower has reopened to strong customer views and, while still early, encouraging financial performance despite the ongoing disruption on the property. Renovations to the East Tower and the convention spaces commence during the fourth quarter. We expect the convention spaces to return to service late in the first quarter, while renovations to the East Tower are expected to extend into the summer of 2026. Continuing with Green Valley Ranch's long-term redevelopment strategy, we are advancing on the next phase of enhancements at this resort. This phase is designed to further strengthen the property's competitive position as one of the premier resort destinations in Las Vegas and broaden its customer appeal through a fully refreshed casino floor along with upgraded food and beverage and entertainment offerings.

These enhancements build on the success we have seen from both the high-limit product of the property and the early performance of the renovated room inventory, and are intended to drive increased visitation and deepen customer engagement across the resort. Work on this phase has already begun and is expected to extend into 2027, with total project costs estimated at approximately $56 million. Turning now to North Fork, construction continues to progress very well, with the opening of the project on track for an early fourth quarter 2026 opening. Total all-in project costs remain approximately $750 million and is fully financed. As of the end of the quarter, Red Rock's outstanding note balance due to the tribe was approximately $77.9 million. You may have heard or read about an unfavorable ruling of the tribe received from a California court in December on its single remaining legal matter.

This is the same case we have discussed in the past, and we do not believe this ruling will interfere with North Fork's right or ability to conduct gaming on its federal trust land. We remain excited about this best-in-class development, pleased with the continued progress of construction, and we look forward to providing further updates on future earnings calls. Consistent with our balanced approach to investing in long-term growth by returning capital to our shareholders and following the completion of our fifth consecutive year of record adjusted EBITDA, we are pleased to announce that the company's board of directors has declared a special cash dividend of $1 per Class A common share payable on February 27th to Class A shareholders of record as of February 20th.

This action reflects the continued strength we are seeing in our business and the confidence we have in the long-term earnings power of our operating model. In addition, the company's board of directors has also declared its regular cash dividend of $0.26 per Class A Common Share payable on March 31st to Class A shareholders of record as of March 16th. With the fourth quarter behind us, the strong momentum for 2025 has carried into the current year, reinforcing our confidence in strength and resilience in our business. Durango continues to validate our long-term growth strategy and underscore the value of our own development pipeline in real estate bank, which includes more than 450 acres of developable land in highly desirable locations across the Las Vegas Valley.

Combined with our portfolio of best-in-class assets in premier locations, this pipeline positions us for significant long-term growth and enables us to fully capitalize on the favorable demographic trends and high barriers to entry that define the Las Vegas locals market. Looking ahead, we remain focused on executing our development pipeline, maintaining operating discipline, and delivering enhanced shareholder returns through a balanced, consistent, and disciplined capital allocation strategy. We want to take a moment to sincerely thank all of our team members for their continued hard work and dedication. Our success truly begins with them. They are the heart of our company and the driving force behind the exceptional guest experiences that keep our customers coming back time and again.

In recognition for their efforts and in addition to the many accolades we have received in recent years, we are proud to share that Station Casinos has been recognized by Forbes as one of America's best large employers for 2026. This meaningful honor recognizes organizations nationwide that go above and beyond to create an outstanding culture for their team members and reflects our continued commitment to fostering a workplace where individuals feel valued, supported, and empowered to grow and succeed. Lastly, we extend our heartfelt gratitude to our loyal guests for their unwavering support over the past six decades. We are deeply thankful for the trust they place in us and look forward to continuing to serve our communities for many years to come. With that operator, we're happy to open the line for questions.

Operator (participant)

We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press R then one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Our first question today is from David Katz with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

David Katz (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Hi. Good afternoon, and thanks for taking my question. Look, I think we look at the Las Vegas Valley as a whole, and I know we've discussed in the past the connection between what may go on on the Strip, what may go on in other destination pockets within the valley. Can you just talk about what you're seeing in terms of demand levels as it relates to other areas? Because candidly, we've heard sort of pockets of weakness and forward-looking strength. Just give us an update on what you've seen and are seeing. Thank you.

Scott Kreeger (President)

Hi, David. It's Scott. Thanks for the question. Probably the best place to start would be in the hotel, and then we can kind of transition into other revenue areas. For the quarter, it's important to note that you have to adjust for the rooms that were out at GVR. When you do that, we performed quite well. So the down in the hotel was essentially the room nights that we lost being down at GVR. So if you baseline that from an ADR perspective, from an occupancy perspective, and an overall revenue perspective, we did quite well. And we did much better than what is publicly available from a RevPAR perspective compared to the Strip. That was really a function of strong sales effort on the part of our sales team and then also Red Rock and Durango from a leisure segment having very high ADR.

So we like where we sit in hotel, and we think that our hotel product is differentiated from the Strip in that regard. The quality of our assets, the value proposition, and the ease and location of our properties really lets us compete at a different level when it comes to the hotel. From a gaming perspective, we continue to see regional and national be one of our strongest performing areas of the database. And as Steve mentioned, we had a record four-quarter revenue in gaming.

And again, we think that's attributable to a couple of things. One, the investment in our high-limit rooms and our move towards higher-net-worth customers, as well as the quality of our assets where people are finding from a regional and national perspective that our offering is quite compelling versus the Strip from a convenience and quality perspective. Steve, I don't know if you want to add anything.

Stephen Cootey (EVP, CFO, and Treasurer)

Yeah. I mean, David, I know a lot comes to this between the Strip and the locals, but it kind of really does start that we don't rely on tourism. We don't rely on conventions. We don't rely on hotel-driven revenue, right? We are a locals market that's incredibly gaming-centric. We offer a distinct value proposition to our guests, and we rely on our guests to come back multiple times a month. In fact, 50% of our guests come over eight times a month. I think that is a differentiating fact between, I think, us and the Strip.

Scott Kreeger (President)

And I think the other thing is if you look at the locations that we have within the locals market, we have the best locations in the market, strategically located off the beltways. And where our properties are located is where all the new growth and new housing is taking place. So we feel great about where we are.

David Katz (Managing Director and Senior Equity Analyst)

Okay. Thank you very much.

Stephen Cootey (EVP, CFO, and Treasurer)

Thanks, David.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Ben Chaiken with Mizuho. Please go ahead.

Ben Chaiken (Equity Research Analyst)

Hey. How's it going? Thanks for taking my question. There's a number of new projects you're working on. Given there's some updated timelines in coordination with phase two at Sunset and phase two of GVR as well as Durango, which was previously announced, can you help us with maybe the total construction disruption that you're thinking in 2026 and maybe any cadence that would be relevant? Thanks.

Stephen Cootey (EVP, CFO, and Treasurer)

Sure. I can start. And I know the team can jump in. So if I kind of go back to Q4, Q4, we experienced probably about $5.1 million of disruption, mainly at our Green Valley Ranch property. When I looked at our Sunset property, our Sunset Station property, the disruption was minimal. So there's some slight differences from what we had previously announced.

Scott Kreeger (President)

That being said, we don't know how much better we could have done if we weren't renovating the casino.

Lorenzo Fertitta (Vice Chairman)

It's a bit of a gut feel other than the hotel segment at Green Valley Ranch. We know we got 300 rooms now, so we can calculate that, obviously.

Stephen Cootey (EVP, CFO, and Treasurer)

Exactly. And I think that Frank would echo that same point about Durango where we're just beginning construction on the North Valley, and we're doing our best in both the Sunset project and the Durango project to mitigate and minimize the operational impact while maintaining construction timelines. Kind of moving into the first quarter, as Lorenzo mentioned, Green Valley Ranch is very easy to calculate because it's all rooms-based, and we have a history on that.

We are going to be in peak construction on the East Tower and the convention in Green Valley, so we expect disruption approximately about $9 million. Then, as mentioned, we're going to continue to manage and monitor the potential impacts at Sunset Station and Durango on those projects as they move forward to what's called more active phases of construction. But I do want to remind everyone that while all these disruption impacts are very short-term in nature, the redevelopment of our properties to ensure that we remain best-in-class, we're equipped with amenities that keep allowing our guests to return time and time again, that is central to Frank and Lorenzo's strategy. So over the long run, we expect to generate significant return from these capital investments and further widen our competitive advantage from other locals in the market, but also the Strip.

Ben Chaiken (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. That's helpful, I guess. Isn't $9 million a good bogey then for the year? I mean, that sounded like just a Q1 number.

Stephen Cootey (EVP, CFO, and Treasurer)

That was the Q1 number. I think you're going to end up maybe like $4.5-$5 million probably in Q2 at Green Valley Ranch. And I'm hesitant right now to as Frank and Lorenzo talked about, the Durango and the Sunset seem more of a gut feel, so not ready to give guidance on that one just yet.

Scott Kreeger (President)

And this Lorenzo, on Green Valley Ranch, that disruption, those rooms will be coming online in July, kind of by summer. All the rooms should be delivered by then and the meeting space. So it's not far away. We're getting through the brunt of it right now.

Ben Chaiken (Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Next question is from Barry Jonas with Truist Securities. Please go ahead. Hey, guys.

Barry Jonas (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Generally, I think Q4 to Q1, EBITDA is usually up about, with apologies, 6%-7%. Any reason outside of the disruption to think that could fare better or worse this year?

Stephen Cootey (EVP, CFO, and Treasurer)

Yeah, Barry, I think your number might be a little high. As I always thought of seasonalities in Q4 and Q1, it depends how far you go back. I go back prior to COVID, so I'm usually about 5.5%. Yeah. But I don't think that there's any reason that we can't achieve those returns, the one note being that $9 million disruption. And just note, so there's no confusion, right, that means roughly if I'm going sequentially as you just did, that would mean really $3.9 million in extra disruption at Green Valley versus Q4.

Barry Jonas (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Great. And then just at a high level is. Got it.

Stephen Cootey (EVP, CFO, and Treasurer)

Sorry, Barry.

Barry Jonas (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. Yeah. And then just as a follow-up, as we head towards tax refund season, maybe just give your latest thoughts about expectations for any top-line benefits from the One Big Beautiful Bill. Thank you.

Stephen Cootey (EVP, CFO, and Treasurer)

I mean, Barry, I mean, I think ultimately, we're looking forward to a tax return just started. I mean, the tax return season just started. I think the way these generally trend, if I look at 2025 to 2024, about a third of these refunds are done by sometime what's called late February, and almost 50% of them are done by mid-March. But the key measures there, including the elimination of the federal tax on tips, you're looking at overtime, the new senior tax credit, a reduction in marginal tax rates, an increased child and family tax credit as well as expanded standard deductions.

We feel, especially given where our assets are positioned and where people are moving to and where people currently are, that we are in prime position to take advantage of that excess discretionary income hitting the Las Vegas locals market.

Barry Jonas (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Perfect. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Chad Beynon with Macquarie. Please go ahead.

Chad Beynon (Managing Director and Head of U.S. Research)

Hi. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. With respect to the GVR and Sunset Station updates around additional capital, some of that going into 2027, how does that affect the timing of the developmental pipeline for Greenfield projects beyond this year? Thank you.

Lorenzo Fertitta (Vice Chairman)

Yeah. This is Lorenzo. It doesn't affect it at all. It's just part of our kind of ongoing strategy. We really believe that the key to our long-term success is investing in our existing properties and keeping them fresh. Like Steve said, it helps continue to separate us from our competition. It also, I think, is allowing us to start to gain some market share, grab some market share even from the Strip as we're seeing a lot of customers, particularly on the high end, that are coming over that historically had stayed at the Strip that are now staying with us based on the amenities we have and the services that we provide.

So listen, anytime that we go out and say that we're going to invest money in high-limit slots and high-limit table games at these properties, believe me, that's a great investment, and that's something that you guys should be really happy about. We've seen great returns on those investments historically, and it's just part of the process of how we've repositioned the properties and the brand coming out of COVID. From all those spaces prior to that were essentially buffets where a lot of those buffets, people coming into the property, they were discounted buffets.

It was a loss leader. We've completely flipped that from that being a loss to being now assets that are generating substantial profit. As far as new builds, I mean, that is really what we believe is one of the core competencies of our company is being able to go out, identify a piece of property, start from scratch, design the property first on ingress, egress, and then figuring out what the product wants to be and how we're going to operate it.

We're currently working on multiple properties right now, I would say, in kind of full-on design. We're going through the entitlement process on them, and it just takes time. We'll have an update, hopefully, fairly soon on exactly what the timeframe is going to be. But the investments that we're making in our current properties will have no effect at all on new properties and new builds.

Chad Beynon (Managing Director and Head of U.S. Research)

Okay. Great for that extra color. Then it sounds like we're hearing some conflicting things in terms of just the buzz and activity at your properties and around the locals market for the Super Bowl. I think most of the headline media was around Strip prices, but we heard different things in the locals market. Can you maybe just talk broadly around how traffic was this weekend and given the game outcome, if this should be a negative headwind for the first quarter versus last year? Thank you.

Scott Kreeger (President)

Yeah, Chad, this is Scott. I can tell you I had the pleasure of touring the properties on Sunday and walking with the general managers and want to give them and their team a lot of support for what they did. I can tell you there's no better place to be on Super Bowl weekend than a Station Casinos property. We had every property fully programmed, whether it was the bars, the restaurants, the race and sports, but VIP parties for our best guests. We were buzzing, and we had decent results from the Super Bowl from a betting perspective and even better results from a gaming perspective on slots and food and beverage. If there was any slowdown elsewhere, it wasn't at our properties.

Chad Beynon (Managing Director and Head of U.S. Research)

Thanks, Scott. Appreciate it, guys.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Jordan Bender with Citizens. Please go ahead.

Jordan Bender (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, everyone. Thanks for the question. I want to hit on the 90% deduction from the One Big Beautiful bill. From what we can see, it doesn't seem like there's much momentum to revert it back to what it was. So have you guys done any work around how much of a threat that could be, particularly for the higher-end business?

Scott Kreeger (President)

Yeah. This is Scott. I'll take it first from a customer perspective, and then maybe Steve can talk a little bit about what to do about it. For the most part, if there was an impact, it's relatively centered around just education and our customers trying to figure out what it means.

So to the degree we can, we try to help them understand the language in the bill and how it affects them. Steve could probably elaborate a little more on the mechanics of it and what we're doing in conjunction with not only just us but the whole gaming industry in trying to rectify the legislation to get it adjusted back to where it was.

Stephen Cootey (EVP, CFO, and Treasurer)

Sure. I mean, I want to keep it incredibly high level because I think you touched on it. I mean, the rule is incredibly confusing. And so I think that the main goal here, particularly since legislative seems a little bit tougher to find, is work administratively through the IRS just to give some clarity around how the 90% rule works and then finding a mechanism industry-wide to get that out to our players and our customers.

Jordan Bender (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Thanks, Steve. I guess, Steve, sticking with you, as we think through your leverage, we kind of run the CapEx numbers through our model. When our models are spinning out, maybe leverage is going to stay at the current level over the next year or so. Can you guys remind us where you are comfortable running the business as we think about if and when we do get a new build project? Thank you.

Stephen Cootey (EVP, CFO, and Treasurer)

Yeah. I mean, I think in the current leverage position right now, we have an incredibly strong balance sheet, ample liquidity, very flexible credit agreement, and no long-term maturity. So I think at 3.87 times, that's the seventh consecutive quarter of deleveraging.

We feel that the balance sheet here will provide Frank and Lorenzo a good foundation in which to grow not only their existing capital projects, return capital to our investors, but also position us for the next greenfield investment. If leverage were to creep up because there was a market opportunity, either that they wanted to accelerate their new projects or accelerate reinvestment where they saw that they were going to generate ample return, I feel that we could temporarily move leverage beyond where we currently are and still be very comfortable within the bounds of the balance sheet.

Jordan Bender (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Understood. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Steve Pizzella with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Steve Pizzella (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Hey. Good evening. And thank you for taking our questions. Just on the promotional environment, can you talk about what you're seeing in terms of promotional activity and the competitive behavior in the locals market?

Scott Kreeger (President)

Yeah, Steve. This is Scott. It's been very consistent. So as we've mentioned on previous calls, there are small single-unit operators that have always been competitive promotionally, but in the grand scheme of things, it's not changed a bit over probably the last couple of years. So very stable environment.

Steve Pizzella (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Thanks. And then just knowing that it is a smaller part of your business, but with the strong group calendar on the Strip expected this year and commentary that you believe you are getting some demand that might have gone to the Strip before, do you expect to receive any benefit from the group business as well?

Scott Kreeger (President)

Yeah. This is Scott again. I can tell you we had a great quarter in the fourth quarter as it relates to hotel sales and the associated catering. We see that moving into the first and second quarter of the year. And then as the booking window opens up for the back half of the year, we're encouraged as well. So we're pretty happy with the sales team's effort and the bookings that we have on the books so far.

Steve Pizzella (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Great. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Daniel Politzer with J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.

Dan Politzer (Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hey. Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. First, you guys have talked a lot about the benefits of your higher-end rooms, higher-net-worth customers. And as we're thinking about this kind of increasingly bifurcated consumer environment, I don't know, is there any way to kind of frame out how you think about your portfolio, whether it's the EBITDA contribution from the higher-end properties, the Durango's, GVRs, the Red Rock's of the world, just to kind of better so we can better appreciate the quality of the customer and the assets that you guys have?

Stephen Cootey (EVP, CFO, and Treasurer)

Well, I mean, generally, Dan, as you know, we're not going to sit there and break down the segments. That's why we group up by division. But you can be fairly certain that all the assets across the database are performing really well.

Scott Kreeger (President)

I think it's important to mention that we're go ahead. A lot of our customers don't just play at one property. We have a lot of crossover play, whether there's a property close to when they're getting off work or whatever is convenient. So they don't tend to be siloed into one singular property.

Lorenzo Fertitta (Vice Chairman)

That's right. And some of the other properties too, we've been encouraged just with the amount of higher-end play that we're starting to see at places like Santa Fe and Sunset Station and even in Palace Station. We're seeing some VIP high-end play. So it's pretty much throughout the system. Obviously, Green Valley, Durango, and Red Rock kind of lead the charge there.

But we're finding that as we add assets to these different areas of the valley, and we upgrade the assets, that it's pulling a higher-end customer overall to even those properties and growing the market where maybe somebody wouldn't have come to that property before. Now they're coming to those properties. So part of the market, the function of the market is, what's the quality of the product that you provide? And we're seeing that the service quality and the product quality is growing the market for us, casting a wider net as far as what we're able to attract at the properties.

Dan Politzer (Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. And then just following up, I know you're not ready to give that disruption from Durango phase two, phase three here. But as I think about the $120 million expansion, what side of the property that was on, now you have a $385 million expansion, which I get extends over a fairly long period of time. I mean, is there any way to kind of couch relative to that $4 million disruption impact you had on the prior phase just so we can kind of try to tweak our expectations and have them in the right place there?

Lorenzo Fertitta (Vice Chairman)

Well, listen, a lot of it's a gut feel. But the reality is with the Durango North expansion is that what we've seen historically where you see the bigger parts of disruption is when you disrupt parking, which obviously affects convenience and which is all the locals market is all about is convenience, or you take down hotel rooms like we've done at Green Valley Ranch because you just don't have the bodies in the building. Look, we certainly expect that we're going to be disrupted at Durango as we continue on with this.

But we look at it as that it's short term. We're talking about 18 months or 16 months from now. And then when we open the property with all these entertainment amenities that we're going to have, we're as competent as we've ever been on that property that foot traffic and gaming traffic going through that property is going to explode with the number of bodies that are going to be there coming to these entertainment assets. So, Steve, I don't know what you're thinking from a disruption standpoint if we're ready to put a number out there, but.

Stephen Cootey (EVP, CFO, and Treasurer)

Yeah. I don't think we're quite ready to I mean, Dan, I mean, I hope you apologize. We're literally just 1 month away from just fencing out the property and kind of getting the logistics down. And so, while Lorenzo said that it's a short term, about 16 months away really from completion, I would say.

Scott Kreeger (President)

You also have traffic improvements going on around there. And we don't really know. We can't quantify it. Maybe after we get 90 days in and see what's going on with the property, we'll have a better ability to communicate on that. But it's just hard to put a number on. We don't know how much better we might be doing, so. Right.

Lorenzo Fertitta (Vice Chairman)

That's the key. And look, as part of the last expansion that we just opened with the VIP slot or the high-limit slots, we opened a new garage. And I can say that every week, we're increasing the car counts going into the new garage. So people are figuring it out. They're finding their way. So we're encouraged from that standpoint. But also, we've done this for a long time, and we know that you're definitely going to feel the impact of disruption when parking is disrupted, so.

Stephen Cootey (EVP, CFO, and Treasurer)

And Dan, if I kind of revert back to the question that Barry asked, Barry asked, in effect, Q1 guidance. And so the way I answered to him, I feel very comfortable given the seasonality output and then the disruption we gave on Green Valley Ranch to achieving that. So I think that kind of gives me a perspective on the Durango disruption right now.

Dan Politzer (Executive Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. That's helpful. I appreciate all the detail. Thanks.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Joseph Stauff with Susquehanna. Please go ahead.

Joe Stauff (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you. Just one quick follow-up on the Durango discussion. Part of the disruption, as I understand it, is from the roadwork and so forth. Is the state doing that, or who dictates essentially the disruption in the roadwork?

Scott Kreeger (President)

Yeah. Joe, it's Scott. There's two projects that are going on. One, we have an apartment complex right next to us that's being developed. There is some trenching that's going on as we speak there. We're in tight coordination with them to minimize the disruption, but that should be going on for a couple more months here. And then the county is working on a on-ramp off of the access frontage road onto the freeway and a widening of the left turn lane coming off of the freeway, both of which will make ingress and egress much better to our property over the long haul.

But that project is going to probably go through the summer of next year. It has not started yet. The bad news is we have traffic construction, roadway construction. The good news is we wouldn't have it unless the valley was growing. So we look at it as short-term pain, long-term gain. That's right.

Joe Stauff (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. And just one quick follow-up. What is the outcome or the effect of the California ruling in December? Does this adjust the opening date? What is the effect of that ruling?

Stephen Cootey (EVP, CFO, and Treasurer)

I think, as we indicated in the remarks, Joe, we believe the impact is nothing. And so we believe that the ruling will not change our ability, the tribe's ability to do gaming on federally trusted land. Construction is moving incredibly fast. The team out there is doing an amazing job, and we're looking forward to opening this project in the fourth quarter of 2026 on schedule.

Joe Stauff (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks a lot.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Steven Wieczynski with Stifel. Please go ahead. Hey. You guys, good afternoon.

Steve Wieczynski (Managing Director)

So, Steve, if we go back to all the there's been a lot of talk about the potential disruption this year, and you've given us a ton of helpful color. And some of it seems like you're still not certain in terms of what the overall impact is going to be. So I guess the simple question might be, with all this disruption, as we think about 2026 versus 2025, do you still think you can grow your Las Vegas EBITDA base this year with all this disruption?

Stephen Cootey (EVP, CFO, and Treasurer)

We do.

Steve Wieczynski (Managing Director)

Perfect. Okay. Second question, Steve, you gave or Scott, Steve or Scott gave color around the rated play side of things. And I guess the word I've where we're kind of picking on, it sounds like it's very stable. Did you give any color? Did I miss it in terms of what you're seeing right now from a non-rated perspective?

Scott Kreeger (President)

Yeah. For the quarter, non-rated was up. So we see it both in our rated customer, our non-rated customer. Really a great quarter for the health of the database if you really dig into all the metrics.

Lorenzo Fertitta (Vice Chairman)

Just Lorenzo, particular strength, like I said before, in the VIP segment, but also seeing strength in what I'll call kind of our younger segment demographic, 21 to 35, up substantially. Once again, I think partially because of the amenities that we've added over the years are really kind of speaking to the yeah. They're appealing to a younger guest. And look, we've been encouraged because they're finding their way to slot machines and table games as well, so.

Steve Wieczynski (Managing Director)

Okay. Gotcha. Thanks, guys. Appreciate it.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Stephen Grambling with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Stephen Grambling (Managing Director)

Hey there. Thanks for taking the question. This is a bit of maybe a bigger picture question, but how do you generally think about the right level of maintenance CapEx across the portfolio, thinking about maybe some of the bigger properties versus the smaller properties? And maybe part of the question's impetus is trying to think through the amount of capital you've deployed, maybe even relative to what we're seeing on the Strip, and if you could be seeing some kind of permanent share gains there. Thank you.

Scott Kreeger (President)

We think one of the things that separates us is the fact that we're a wholly owned company. We're not an OpCo/PropCo structure. And Lorenzo and I take a long-term view towards the portfolio. And you have maintenance capital, which means what does it take to maintain where we are where customers are coming in? But we look at some of these repositioning of amenities and what we're doing at Durango in the next phase as literally investments that cast a wider net and draw more customers.

Lorenzo Fertitta (Vice Chairman)

Look, and we're owner-operators. We've been doing this since we were teenagers. And we walk through the properties, obviously, on a regular basis. And we want to make sure that they are looking appropriate to our customers and that all the equipment and everything that is needed for our team members to be able to provide their jobs and their function is provided. And I think as well, it goes back to even historically, when you look at what properties have outperformed on the Strip, right? I mean, if you look right now, you've got the properties that have always philosophically invested in their assets. And we do the same thing.

If we have a restaurant that's not performing, we'll rip it out and put a new restaurant in. And I think you see the same thing at The Wynn. They've done that for decades. And it's not a surprise that relative to the rest of the competitors' set, that they continue to outperform. So it's a very kind of similar mentality, I think, in a way. Even though Steve's not there, they've kind of carried that on. And I think you see it when you walk through the property. It just looks and feels different. And I think customers appreciate that. And we're committed to continue to operate our businesses like that as well.

Stephen Grambling (Managing Director)

Maybe one other follow-up, kind of related here. But historically, I think there's always been this concern that some of the maybe weaker trends on the Strip could ultimately spill over into the locals market. It doesn't sound like that's happening at all. But, curious where you would be looking out to see maybe the first signs of that. And should we have already maybe seen some of those to kind of highlight that there could be a decoupling here?

Stephen Cootey (EVP, CFO, and Treasurer)

I mean, I thought of during the first question, I mean, we're just a fundamentally different business, right? So we tend to be a bit more recession-resistant. I think if you look back since 1984, I believe the Strip has had 11 times in that instances where gaming GGR was down. The locals market is at six, three of which are related to the Great Financial Crisis. One is related to COVID.

The other two are related to 2013 and 2014 when local GGR was down less than 0.3% versus the Strip at the same time period, down 2%. I think it just goes back to we're gaming-centric. We're not hotel-driven. We're not convention-driven. We're driven by local repeat customers that keep coming time and time again. And then going back to what Frank and Lorenzo said, that's why we are continually investing in our properties. That's why we love our locations. And we love yeah. And we love our locations because we think we are best positioned to not only separate ourselves from the Strip but best positioned to gain from the long-term favorable demographic profile on the Strip.

Scott Kreeger (President)

I think one of the things that you have to remember and look at is while the Strip may have some revenue declines, they still are a business that has to fill their rooms. Even if the rates are down, they're filling their rooms, which means you still need guest room attendants. You still need all those employees to keep those rooms full. So, look, we love our position in the market. We've been doing this for a long time. The thing we love most about our strategy is that we have the right locations in the market. All locations are not created equal. We're in growing markets. We're not on surface streets. We're on the beltways where all the new rooftops are being built.

Lorenzo Fertitta (Vice Chairman)

We've talked a lot about the VIP and the high-end gaming play and the higher-end restaurants. But I think we've also positioned the brand and the company such that we also have a strong value proposition: $1.99 margaritas, food specials in the cafes. We don't charge for parking. So we provide a product that's accessible to people from all different demographic types. And look, at the end of the day, people use our properties as their form of entertainment and getaway from a local perspective. And we're really leaning into that when you see the type of amenities that we're adding to a place like Durango, so. $1.99 margarita resonates with everyone.

Stephen Grambling (Managing Director)

Thank you. Does.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Brandt Montour with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Brandt Montour (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, everybody. Thanks for taking my question. The first one is just full year 2025 disruption. I think you guys were originally looking for $25 million. Could you just let us know how that came in, to the best of your ability, to calculate that?

Stephen Cootey (EVP, CFO, and Treasurer)

Yeah. I think it came in better than we thought, Brant. As I even just alluded to last quarter, I think we gave roughly $9 million of disruption, almost $9.5 million disruption we expected in Q4 alone. And we came in at $5.1 million for that quarter.

Brandt Montour (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. And then on the new Durango phase, we'll call it phase two. I guess this is the second half 2027 opening. Do you foresee opening this in one amenity at a time? Is it going to be one big grand opening? And then in terms of the breakout, I mean, you're not going to break out the $385. But just when we think about your return thresholds, how much of that total project spend is gaming versus non-gaming?

Stephen Cootey (EVP, CFO, and Treasurer)

Maybe we could do it that way to help us try and model out the returns on this. This is Lorenzo. I mean, our expectations is that we would get similar returns to what we've seen on the project so far itself, kind of low teens, growing to mid-teens, and eventually growing to kind of our 20% threshold that we've seen historically. Well, I know that we will open that property with all of the amenities open but possibly one of the food and beverage amenities might trail by two, three, four months. Still working on that. But the vast majority, call it 90%, 95% of the amenities will open with one big bang. That's the way we like to do it, like we open our new builds.

And then relative to a breakout, I mean, I think when you look at the overall capacity that we have at Durango, we still have capacity even though we're obviously doing incredible business there. So we're adding how many slots are we adding there? 400. 400 additional slots on our base of about 2,200. And we feel like with the entertainment amenities that we're adding there and just the sheer traffic and foot traffic that we're going to have flowing through the building, we're going to get that benefit onto the gaming floor now on both table games and slots. So I can tell you, we're very confident in the prospects for that project. Thanks, everyone. The next question is from John DeCree with CBRE. Please go ahead. Hey, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. Covered a lot of ground. Maybe two to round it out.

Brandt Montour (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

At a high level, can you guys talk about what you're seeing in terms of new database adds? I mean, you're obviously performing quite well. But are you still seeing the database grow? And then specifically outside of first-time visitors to Durango as the rest of the portfolio, especially as you make these investments, GVR, Sunset, etc., are you seeing your database grow new customers that you haven't had before?

Scott Kreeger (President)

Yeah. This is Scott. So even last quarter, I think we mentioned that we saw the database grow from the perspective of actual carded customer count. We grew the database this year. And interestingly, it grew in every demographic segment of age. And then the contribution from a net yield perspective of that database grew in every category of age demographic as well, year-over-year. And John, we continue to grow Durango. We continue to see new signups. Even around the Durango area, visits are up. Net revenue's up. Spend per visit's up. So we love our positioning for that property and looking forward to the next phase opening up.

Brandt Montour (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Awesome. One last one, Steve, for you. I think an easy one. We're not expecting much. But just to ask, the outlook for OpEx, inflation, anything notable this year as we think about margins for 2026 other than the disruption, so specifically on any cost buckets?

Scott Kreeger (President)

Yeah. I mean, we like where we stand from a margin. This is the 20th quarter of 22 that we've hit above 45% in LVO without really sacrificing service or operational or customer quality. Labor is the one notable. As you know, we live in a very competitive environment in the valley. And our guests are our employees are our first line to our customers. So I would expect that to go mid-single digits from a labor perspective. But ultimately, we've been managing COGS. We're managing utilities. Insurance expense is really tail wagging the dog. That's slightly up. But for the most part, costs are being managed.

Brandt Montour (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Thanks, guys.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from Trey Bowers with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Zachary Silverberg (VP of Equity Research)

Hi. This is Zach Silverberg. I'm for Trey. Thanks for taking our questions. First one, I believe last call, you mentioned there would be a handful of taverns opening this year. Could you remind us of the overall tavern strategy and your ability to source new or high-end customers and the return profile of the taverns?

Scott Kreeger (President)

Yeah. This is Scott. We have currently 8 taverns. We just opened our third tavern about a week and a half, two weeks ago. The thesis for taverns is relatively simple. It's a micro-market strategy where you can get into neighborhoods in areas where maybe we don't have as great a penetration. We have a thesis around our investments in taverns. We like to be in high-net-worth areas. We like to be in areas where there's growth versus the inner-city population.

And it's got a unique customer base from a demographic standpoint. It tends to skew male. It tends to skew sports bettor. And it tends to skew young. So we like accessing that customer in the hopes that they grow into our overall platform of larger properties. So we have three more properties coming online in the first half and then the remainder in the second half of this year. But the strategy from a growth perspective is highly selective for us. We want to make sure that if we do enter into a new tavern deal, that it fits our thesis and it's accretive.

Zachary Silverberg (VP of Equity Research)

Gotcha. Appreciate that. And then one more. You previously stated the cannibalization backfill from Durango was about a three-year process. We're approaching that later this year. Could you kind of update us on the timing and progress and how you guys feel about it? Thank you.

Scott Kreeger (President)

I think we feel very good about where we are from a cannibalization and from more. Equally as important the backfill to our core properties. Our core properties are growing with low single digits last quarter, which kind of proves out that fact. So we're in line to where we need to be to hit those targets.

Zachary Silverberg (VP of Equity Research)

Appreciate the color.

Operator (participant)

This concludes our question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Stephen Cootey for any closing remarks.

Stephen Cootey (EVP, CFO, and Treasurer)

Thank you, everyone, for joining the call today. We look forward to talking again about 90 days. Take care.

Operator (participant)

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.