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RI

Rumble Inc. (RUM)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 revenue grew 34% year over year to $23.7M, exceeding the company’s prior guidance for “at least 25%” YoY growth; net loss narrowed dramatically to $2.7M from $43.3M in Q1 2024, aided by lower programming costs and favorable fair-value items .
  • KPIs: MAUs averaged 59M (87% retention vs Q4 2024), ARPU was $0.34 (down 13% sequentially on lower ad revenue offset by subscriptions); management highlighted “record” user retention versus the post-2022 midterm cycle .
  • Strategic progress: brand advertiser traction (completed Netflix campaign; ongoing Chevron and Crypto.com), El Salvador government cloud deal, Tampa Bay Buccaneers partnership, and Rumble Wallet targeted for Q3 launch to monetize international markets .
  • Balance sheet strengthened: $301.3M cash and equivalents at March 31, 2025 and ~211 BTC purchased during the quarter (valued at ~$21.3M as of May 8 noon ET), following Tether’s strategic investment and related tender .
  • Stock reaction catalysts: brand advertising proof points, cloud wins in government/sports verticals, and wallet rollout in Q3; management reiterated goal to move materially toward adjusted EBITDA breakeven in 2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • 34% YoY revenue growth to $23.7M led by subscriptions and monetization across video/ads; MAU retention of 87% post-election materially better than 60% after 2022 midterms. CEO: “beginning of a new era,” “brands are finally starting to knock on our door” .
  • Brand advertiser traction: completed Netflix campaign; ongoing Chevron and Crypto.com sponsorships; exploring programmatic and AI-based tools in Rumble Ads to expand penetration .
  • Cloud momentum: El Salvador government contract; Tampa Bay Buccaneers storage partnership; management “energized by the potential of the cloud business” .

What Went Wrong

  • ARPU fell to $0.34 from $0.39 in Q4 2024 due to lower ad revenue (partly offset by subscriptions), highlighting sensitivity to ad demand during post-election normalization .
  • Cost structure still heavy: Q1 cost of services at $30.0M and G&A up 78% YoY to $16.6M, including one-time $4.8M compensation costs and $2.3M payroll taxes tied to Tether-related tender and option exercises .
  • Adjusted EBITDA remained negative at $(22.7)M; while improved YoY by ~$3.8M, the path to breakeven requires sustained ad monetization ramp and expense discipline .

Financial Results

P&L and EPS versus prior periods

MetricQ1 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$17.7 $25.1 $30.2 $23.7
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(43.3) $(31.5) $(236.8) $(2.7)
Loss per Share (EPS, $)$(0.21) $(0.15) $(1.15) $(0.01)
Loss from Operations ($USD Millions)$(35.0) $(32.8) $(24.2) $(36.4)
Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP, $USD Millions)$(26.5) $(23.5) $(13.4) $(22.7)

Notes: Q4 2024 net loss includes a $(184.7)M change in fair value of derivative tied to Tether’s investment, making EPS non-comparable sequentially .

KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
MAUs (Millions)67 68 59
ARPU ($)$0.33 $0.39 $0.34
MAU Retention vs prior quarter——87%

Revenue drivers (Q1 2025, YoY change attribution)

SourceIncrease ($USD Millions)
Audience Monetization (subs, tipping, licensing, hosting, ads)$4.6
Other Initiatives (publisher ad network, cloud services)$1.4

Balance Sheet & Liquidity (Quarter-End)

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)$114.0 $301.3
Bitcoin Holdings—210.82 BTC; $17.4M at 3/31; ~$21.3M at 5/8 noon ET
Warrant Liability ($USD Millions)$40.4 $18.5
Derivative Liability ($USD Millions)$184.7 $0.0

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue growth YoYQ1 2025“At least 25%” vs Q1 2024 Not reiterated in Q1 release; actual delivered +34% YoY Beat prior guidance (actual > guided)
Adjusted EBITDA trajectoryFY 2025Move materially towards breakeven in 2025 Reaffirmed: “moving materially towards Adjusted EBITDA breakeven in 2025” Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (prior-2)Q4 2024 (prior-1)Q1 2025 (current)Trend
Brand advertisers / adsRamp of RAC, mid-rolls; premium launched; lawsuit vs WFA/GARM; expectation brand constraints ease “Tailwinds” from new administration; sequential revenue growth; premium+RAC flywheel Netflix completed; Chevron & Crypto.com ongoing; exploring programmatic and AI tools Improving traction; early brand proof points
AI/technologyIntroduced mid-roll ads; premium cohesion; TECH scale proven (election night) Cloud-ready scale; aggressive product ambitions vs Google’s suite Exploring AI-based tools in ads; AI-driven localization to support wallet/international Expanding AI use in ads/localization
Rumble CloudMiami Dolphins; Sticker Mule AI workloads (H100) El Salvador partnership announced; targeting govt and enterprise El Salvador contract details; Tampa Bay Buccaneers storage Gov’t and sports vertical wins
International & WalletEarly premium build; no wallet yet Wallet strategy with Tether for international monetization Wallet targeted for Q3 launch; creator/user crypto demand; non-custodial wallet to compete with Coinbase Execution planning underway
Regulatory/legalLawsuit against WFA/GARM; election performance Tether strategic investment; internal control weakness noted in 10-K (risk disclosure) Brazil-related legal actions; U.S. court ruling; social media channels for Reg FD Continued legal posture; platform visibility
MAUs & retentionMAUs 67M; ARPU $0.33; election build-up MAUs 68M; ARPU $0.39; 21% seq growth in US/Canada MAUs 59M; 87% retention vs Q4 (better than 60% post-2022 midterms) Stronger post-event retention; normalization

Management Commentary

  • CEO Chris Pavlovski: “Our first quarter marked the beginning of a new era… brands are finally starting to knock on our door… We remain energized by the potential of the cloud business… Rumble Wallet will be our gateway to monetize international markets.” .
  • CFO Brandon Alexandroff: “Adjusted EBITDA loss… improved 14% YoY; we continue to expect to move materially towards adjusted EBITDA breakeven in 2025… cash ended at $301.3M… ~211 Bitcoin at quarter-end worth ~$21.3M as of noon today” .
  • On brand partnerships: “Only one brand campaign completed… with Netflix… currently ongoing Chevron and Crypto.com… a major win” .
  • On wallet positioning: “To be very clear, Rumble Wallet in partnership with Tether will directly compete with Coinbase” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Bitcoin treasury & wallet strategy: Board approved up to $20M BTC purchases; wallet use case centers on creator payments and international user transactions; evaluating BTC-to-cash ratio over time, no change announced beyond $20M cap .
  • Brand advertisers: Initial Netflix campaign feedback positive; Chevron and Crypto.com campaigns in flight; management expects more brands over coming months .
  • M&A focus: Actively evaluating strategic opportunities alongside investments in Video, Ads, and Cloud .
  • Cloud pipeline: Government appetite for Rumble Cloud; sports vertical expanding (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) .
  • Guidance tone: Reiterated intent to move materially toward adjusted EBITDA breakeven in 2025; balance sheet optionality from Tether to invest for acceleration .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus for Q1 2025 Revenue and EPS via S&P Global was unavailable at the time of query; we were unable to retrieve “Revenue Consensus Mean,” “Primary EPS Consensus Mean,” and estimate counts for RUM for Q1 2025. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Revenue outperformed prior guidance with +34% YoY to $23.7M; EPS improved sharply to $(0.01) as fair-value items and lower programming costs benefitted GAAP results .
  • Normalization post-election is underway: ARPU dipped sequentially to $0.34, but subscriptions offset ad softness; MAU retention (87%) materially stronger vs the prior election cycle .
  • Early brand advertiser traction is a potential step-change catalyst; more brand deals would accelerate monetization and improve profitability trajectory .
  • Cloud wins in government and sports verticals validate product-market fit; continued enterprise/government adoption could diversify revenue beyond ads .
  • Rumble Wallet (targeted Q3) aims to unlock international monetization and creator tipping/subscriptions; successful rollout could expand TAM and support KPI growth .
  • Expense discipline remains essential; one-time G&A items inflated Q1 costs, but adjusted EBITDA improved YoY and management reaffirmed the 2025 breakeven goal .
  • Watch for: additional brand campaigns, wallet launch execution, new cloud contracts, and sequential ARPU trends as ad demand potentially recovers alongside corporate tailwinds .