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RI

Rumble Inc. (RUM)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Revenue $24.76M, flat year-over-year (-1%) and down sequentially (-1% vs Q2), with ARPU up 7% to $0.45 and MAUs down to 47M due to summer seasonality and post-election-cycle softness .
  • EPS was $(0.06), improving from $(0.12) in Q2; Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $(15.10)M from $(20.46)M in Q2 on lower programming/content costs .
  • Company announced transformational steps: exchange offer to acquire Northern Data (22.4K NVIDIA GPUs, 9 data centers), a $150M GPU services commitment from Tether (anchor customer post-close), and a $100M advertising commitment from Tether beginning Q1 2026—reframing growth trajectory across AI/cloud/video .
  • The planned Nov 12 earnings call was replaced by an update call focused on the Northern Data/Tether announcements; management withheld financial guidance, emphasizing aggressive growth backed by Tether—key narrative likely to drive stock reaction near term .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • ARPU expanded to $0.45 (+7% q/q), driven by monetization progress despite lower MAUs; non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA loss improved year-over-year and sequentially .
  • Cost of services fell $11.21M YoY on reduced programming/content spend, improving operating loss and supporting EPS improvement .
  • Strategic catalysts: announced exchange offer for Northern Data and anchor commitments from Tether—“Northern Data. Tether. Rumble. This is how we build the AI ecosystem for the future…” (Chris Pavlovski) .

What Went Wrong

  • MAUs declined to 47M from 51M in Q2 and 59M in Q1, reflecting creator seasonality and a softer news cycle outside an election year .
  • Advertising revenue within Audience Monetization declined $4.9M YoY, partly offset by +$3.7M subscriptions and +$0.7M licensing/tips/platform hosting, highlighting ongoing brand adoption challenges at scale .
  • No formal quarterly guidance issued; near-term financial visibility limited as company focuses on M&A/integration; Q3 earnings call was replaced by an update call centered on Northern Data/Tether .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$23.70 $25.08 $24.76
Net Loss ($USD Millions)N/A$(30.22) $(16.26)
EPS (Basic & Diluted, $)N/A$(0.12) $(0.06)
Adjusted EBITDA (Non-GAAP, $USD Millions)$(22.70) $(20.46) $(15.10)
MAUs (Millions)59 51 47
ARPU ($)$0.34 $0.42 $0.45
S&P Global Consensus RevenueN/AN/AN/A
S&P Global Consensus EPSN/AN/AN/A

Note: Consensus estimates via S&P Global were unavailable for RUM in these periods.

Segment/mix change vs prior year (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024):

Revenue DriverChange ($USD Millions)
Advertising (Audience Monetization)$(4.9)
Subscription Fees+$3.7
Licensing/Tipping/Platform Hosting+$0.7
Cloud Services (Other Initiatives)+$0.1
Publisher Network Ad Inventory (Other Initiatives)+$0.1

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
GPU Services (Tether commitment)Two years post-close (closing expected Q2 2026)NoneUp to $150M over 2 years (anchor customer) New
Advertising Commitment (Tether)FY 2026–FY 2027 (begin Q1 2026)None$100M total ($50M/year over two years) New
Rumble Wallet rolloutNov–Dec 2025NoneBroader release in coming weeks; full availability by mid-December New timeline
Northern Data exchange offerQ2 2026 targetNoneAcceptance period and closing expected in Q2 2026 New timeline

Management did not provide formal revenue/EPS/OpEx/margin guidance for Q3/Q4 2025 .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1/Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
AI/technology initiativesExploring AI partnerships; cloud traction; El Salvador GOV cloud; sports clients (Buccaneers) Announced exchange offer for Northern Data; 22.4K GPUs; 9 data centers; anchor GPU customer (Tether) Accelerating
Advertising/brand adoptionEarly brand traction (Netflix, Crypto.com, Chevron); RAC development Tether $100M ad commitment; ARPU +7% q/q; brand interest building but still early Improving structurally
Wallet/product monetizationWallet planned Q3; MoonPay partnership; creator tipping/commerce Wallet broader release in weeks; full by mid-Dec; intended broader economic engine (ads/cloud/creators) Near-term launch
Cloud enterprise/governmentRFPs with governments/corporates; competing with hyperscalers Scale-up potential via Northern Data assets and Tether’s anchor demand Scaling path
MAUs/seasonality59M → 51M; explained by cycle; retention improved post-election 47M; summer creator downtime and non-election softness; ARPU offset Seasonal softness mitigated by ARPU
Regulatory/legal—France platform fully restored by court ruling (Oct) Positive resolution
M&A strategyManagement focused on evaluating opportunities Northern Data exchange offer and ecosystem strategy with Tether Executing

Management Commentary

  • “Northern Data. Tether. Rumble. This is how we build the AI ecosystem for the future… Freedom-First is the new way forward for tech.” — Chris Pavlovski, CEO .
  • “YouTube has Google, CoreWeave has Microsoft, Anthropic has Amazon and now Rumble has Tether… Our mandate is growth.” — Chris Pavlovski .
  • “The $100M Tether advertising spend… is a complete game changer… allowing us to step on the gas bringing in creators.” — Chris Pavlovski .
  • Tether on strategic alignment: “By combining Rumble’s independent-first platforms with Northern Data infrastructure, they are creating the conditions for open access to AI tools and intelligence at scale.” — Paolo Ardoino, CEO of Tether .

Q&A Highlights

  • Financial impact of Northern Data/Tether: Management declined specific guidance; confirmed $50M/year advertising begins 2026, GPU commitment effective post-close (anticipated 1H 2026) .
  • Rumble Wallet: broader release in weeks; fully open by mid-December; intended to extend beyond tipping to enable platform-wide economic activity (ads, cloud, creator payments) .
  • MAUs & seasonality: summer downtime for major creators and non-election cycle softness cited; expectation for boost around 2026 midterms .
  • Creator acquisition model: advertising commitment from Tether enables more profitable onboarding without reliance on external brand ad campaigns, changing unit economics .
  • Advertising trajectory: RAC partnerships and SSP integrations progressing; CPMs expected to improve into future periods (from prior quarter commentary) .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global: Consensus EPS and revenue estimates for Q3 2025 were unavailable for RUM at the time of analysis.
  • Third-party context: Zacks/Nasdaq reported RUM missed revenue (-5.92%) and EPS (-14.29%) vs their consensus for Q3 2025 .
  • Implication: With S&P consensus unavailable, investors should anchor on company-reported fundamentals and monitor emerging Street coverage post-announcements .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term narrative catalyst: Northern Data exchange offer and Tether commitments reposition Rumble as an AI infrastructure + video platform hybrid; integration and closing timelines into Q2 2026 are critical checkpoints .
  • Monetization resilience: ARPU growth and subscription/licensing/tipping offset ad softness; Adjusted EBITDA improving on content cost reductions .
  • Liquidity/optionality: $269.8M cash plus Bitcoin positions provide runway to invest in growth; total liquidity $293.8M as of Q3 .
  • Wallet as growth lever: December-wide availability can accelerate international MAU growth and creator monetization, with MoonPay ramps and Tether ecosystem tailwinds .
  • Advertising unit economics: $100M Tether ad commitment changes creator acquisition math, supporting aggressive creator growth in 2026–2027 .
  • Execution focus: Absence of formal guidance shifts attention to milestones—GPU services contract activation post-close, brand adoption in RAC, and MAU trends into 2026 midterms .
  • Risk watch: Integration complexity, regulatory approvals, and timing uncertainties around the exchange offer; management underscores forward-looking risks in filings .