Sign in

You're signed outSign in or to get full access.

RI

Rumble Inc. (RUM)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 delivered record revenue of $30.2M (+48% YoY) on stronger advertising, subscriptions, tipping, licensing and platform hosting, while ARPU rose 18% sequentially and MAUs reached 68M (U.S./Canada MAUs +21% q/q to 52M) .
  • Profitability improved on a non-GAAP basis (Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $13.4M from $30.0M in Q4’23), but GAAP net loss widened to $236.8M due to a $184.7M non-cash derivative loss linked to the Tether strategic investment .
  • Guidance: for Q1 2025, management expects “at least 25%” revenue growth vs Q1 2024 and reiterated progress toward Adjusted EBITDA breakeven in 2025; $250M gross proceeds from Tether closed Feb 7, 2025, adding strategic and financial flexibility .
  • Cash usage improved for a fifth straight quarter (Q4 cash/equivalents/marketable securities down $18.0M, a 19% improvement vs Q3) and ended Q4 at ~$114M (pre-Tether close); election coverage set records across RAC and subscriptions, supporting monetization momentum into 2025 .
  • Potential near-term stock catalysts: brand advertising re-engagement post-election, Rumble Premium growth (exclusive content), Tether-enabled initiatives (Rumble wallet, international expansion), and early Rumble Cloud wins (e.g., El Salvador agreement) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Monetization strengthened: ARPU increased to $0.39 from $0.33 in Q3 (+18% q/q) on higher advertising and subscription revenue; MAUs reached 68M with North America MAUs up 21% q/q to 52M .
  • Non-GAAP profitability trend improved: Adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $13.4M vs $30.0M in Q4’23, continuing a multi-quarter improvement .
  • Strategic momentum: closed a $775M Tether investment (including $250M gross proceeds), announced Rumble wallet with Tether, secured El Salvador cloud agreement, and the White House launched an official Rumble channel; CEO framed this as ushering in a “new era” for Rumble .

Management quotes:

  • “The fourth quarter delivered another revenue record… registering over $30 million in revenue with 68 million MAUs… U.S. and Canada MAUs jumped 21%… to 52 million” .
  • “With more than 400 million international Tether users imagine the possibilities between Rumble and Tether… we expect 4 core impacts on the business” (international expansion, onboarding Tether portfolio to Rumble Cloud, Rumble wallet, balance sheet strength) .

What Went Wrong

  • GAAP net loss expanded to $236.8M (vs $29.3M Q4’23) due to a $184.7M non-cash derivative fair value loss tied to the Tether transaction, plus a negative $31.2M change in warrant liability .
  • Cost of services still exceeded revenue (Q4 cost of services $34.5M vs revenue $30.2M), though down $5.0M YoY on reduced programming/content costs .
  • Continued dependence on direct-response advertisers; brand ramp remains a key swing factor into 2025 despite early signs of improvement post-election and GARM’s disbandment .

Financial Results

Headline P&L and EPS

MetricQ4 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD)$20.39M $17.73M $22.47M $25.06M $30.23M
GAAP EPS (basic & diluted)$(0.14) $(0.21) $(0.13) $(0.15) $(1.15)
Loss from Operations ($USD)$(37.21)M $(35.00)M $(38.81)M $(32.82)M $(24.22)M
Net Loss ($USD)$(29.28)M $(43.29)M $(26.78)M $(31.54)M $(236.75)M

Notes:

  • Q4 2024 net loss includes a $184.7M non-cash loss from change in fair value of derivative related to the Tether investment and a $(31.2)M change in warrant liability .
  • Cost of services declined YoY to $34.5M on lower programming/content costs (−$5.3M YoY) .

Non-GAAP Profitability (Adjusted EBITDA)

MetricQ4 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD)$(30.00)M $(26.48)M $(28.67)M $(23.53)M $(13.39)M
  • Definition excludes interest, other income/expense, taxes, D&A, SBC, acquisition costs, fair-value changes (warrants, contingent consideration, derivative) .

KPIs and Cash

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
MAUs (Global)53M 67M 68M
MAUs (U.S. & Canada)37M 43M 52M
ARPU (Audience monetization)$0.37 $0.33 $0.39
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Marketable Securities (End of Period)$154.2M ~$132.0M ~$114.0M

Cash usage progression (decline in cash/equivalents/marketable securities per quarter):

  • Q4’23: $(47.5)M; Q1’24: $(35.6)M; Q2’24: $(29.6)M; Q3’24: $(22.3)M; Q4’24: $(18.0)M .

Business mix notes (qualitative)

  • Q4 revenue increase vs Q4’23 was driven by Audience Monetization (+$7.9M; ad, subscription, tipping, licensing, platform hosting) and Other Initiatives (+$1.9M; publisher network monetization, cloud services) .

Estimates vs Actuals

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for Q4 2024 revenue/EPS were unavailable at the time of retrieval; therefore, we cannot quantify beats/misses for this quarter based on S&P Global consensus. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue growth (YoY)Q1 2025None specific“At least 25%” vs Q1 2024 New
Sequential revenue trend2024Q1: sequential increase starting Q2 ; Q2: continue to increase sequentially ; Q3: expect revenue growth remainder of 2024 Achieved record Q4 revenue of $30.2M Achieved
Adjusted EBITDA trajectoryFY 2025Move materially toward breakeven in 2025 Reiterated; with Tether proceeds, increased optionality to invest Maintained (with added flexibility)
CapitalN/AN/AClosed $775M Tether investment; $250M gross proceeds to company, concurrent $525M self-tender New balance sheet support
Treasury strategyOngoingAnnounced plan to allocate up to $20M to Bitcoin Disclosed purchases to date of $17.1M at ~$91k per BTC (as of Mar 12, 2025) Update

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024, Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Monetization engine (RAC, mid-rolls, Premium)Introduced ARPU; mid-rolls launched; Premium launched; sequential revenue growth Full revenue suite live; election coverage set records; ARPU +18% q/q to $0.39; NA MAUs +21% q/q Improving monetization and engagement
Brand advertising post-GARMExpect sequential revenue growth; GARM headwinds cited Management expects artificial headwinds to become tailwinds under new environment; targeting brands more aggressively Turning favorable
Rumble Premium and exclusive contentPremium debuted; Crowder’s MugClub added (Q3) Continued Premium traction; lineup/“raid” feature to lengthen viewing sessions; Dr Disrespect joined Strengthening content and stickiness
Rumble CloudEarly customers; Miami Dolphins partnership (Q3) El Salvador government cloud agreement; plan to onboard Tether portfolio companies Pipeline and international expansion
Crypto/Tether strategic tie-upNot applicable prior to Dec announcement$775M investment closed; Rumble wallet in development with Tether; costs shared; no material incremental build cost New growth vector
Regulatory/legalAntitrust suit vs WFA/WPP/GroupM; add Diageo (Q3) U.S. court ruling that Brazilian censorship orders have no legal force in U.S.; lawsuit w/ TMTG vs Brazilian justice Continued legal positioning

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “Rumble cemented its place in the online media eco-system… The fourth quarter included our biggest announcement since going public: a $775 million strategic investment from Tether… With the Tether transaction now closed, I could not be more excited about the possibilities and the new era we are entering for Rumble” .
  • CEO on strategy with Tether: four core impacts—international expansion (e.g., El Salvador), onboarding Tether portfolio to Rumble Cloud, launching Rumble wallet (USDT, Tether Gold, BTC), and strengthened balance sheet to compete with Google products .
  • CFO: “Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was [a loss of] $13.4 million, a 55% improvement vs Q4 2023… we expect to move materially towards adjusted EBITDA breakeven in 2025… For Q1 2025, we expect revenue growth of at least 25% vs Q1 2024” .

Q&A Highlights

  • MAUs/engagement post-election and lineup changes: Despite Dan Bongino’s government appointment, management implemented a “lineup” and a “raid” feature to transition audiences across shows; early data show audiences are “sticking… a little longer” with strong slots held by Vince, Crowder, and Tim Pool .
  • Bitcoin treasury: ~$17.1M invested to date; rationale is alignment with the crypto community and long-term conviction; Rumble among notable public company holders .
  • Rumble wallet development: Co-developing with Tether; both parties bear their own costs; no material incremental cost to build beyond normal implementation .
  • Tether strategic rationale: Accelerate international entry, enable crypto payouts/tipping, high-value partnerships (exchanges), and onboard Tether portfolio to Rumble Cloud .
  • Seasonality and Q1 outlook: Expect a much tighter MAU range post-presidential election vs prior midterm drop, reflecting improved product stickiness and broader content beyond politics .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for Q4 2024 revenue and EPS were unavailable at the time of retrieval. As such, quantified beat/miss analysis versus S&P consensus cannot be provided for this quarter. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Where estimates may need to adjust:

  • Given Q4’s monetization uplift (ARPU +18% q/q) and NA MAUs +21% q/q, plus management’s “at least 25%” Q1’25 revenue growth outlook, Street models likely need higher 1H’25 revenue run-rate and improved 2025 Adjusted EBITDA trajectory assumptions (offset by potential incremental investments enabled by Tether) .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Monetization inflection: ARPU rebound and election-driven RAC/subscription records, plus new content/programming features (lineup/raid), support stronger revenue per user and stickier engagement into 2025 .
  • Non-GAAP profitability improving: Adjusted EBITDA losses narrowed materially across 2024; trajectory to 2025 breakeven reiterated, though management may reinvest selectively post-Tether to accelerate growth .
  • Strategic capital and crypto lever: $250M gross proceeds from Tether and the Rumble wallet initiative create new international monetization avenues and potential crypto-native tipping/payout flywheels .
  • Brand advertising re-engagement is a key upside swing factor: Management expects 2024 headwinds to turn to tailwinds post-election and GARM disbandment; proof points into 2025 will matter for the multiple .
  • Cloud as a second engine: Government of El Salvador agreement and potential onboarding of Tether portfolio companies offer a pathway to diversify revenue beyond advertising and subscriptions .
  • Risk lens: GAAP volatility from fair-value marks (derivative and warrant liabilities) and ongoing legal/regulatory exposure may drive earnings noise; cost of services still above revenue but trending down YoY .
  • Near-term setup: Q1’25 guide of “at least +25%” YoY on revenue provides a tangible benchmark; watch Premium subscriber growth, brand ad wins, and Cloud customer announcements as catalysts through 1H’25 .

References:

  • Q4 2024 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 press release: revenues, KPI, costs, non-GAAP measures, guidance, capitalization, subsequent events .
  • Q4 2024 earnings call transcript: management commentary, strategy, Q&A details .
  • Prior quarters for trend analysis: Q1 2024 8-K ; Q2 2024 8-K ; Q3 2024 8-K and call .
  • Tether transaction close 8-K (Feb 7, 2025) .