Rush Enterprises - Earnings Call - Q1 2025

Executive Summary

• Q1 2025 was resilient in a difficult freight backdrop: revenue $1.85B (-1.1% y/y), diluted EPS $0.73 (vs $0.88 y/y), with aftermarket down y/y but slightly above Q4; absorption ratio remained strong at 128.6%.
• Results modestly beat S&P Global consensus: EPS $0.73 vs $0.72*, revenue $1.851B vs $1.826B*; note limited coverage (1 estimate for both) [Q1 2025 estimates from S&P Global*].
• Mix was supported by vocational and public sector strength; medium-duty outperformed industry, while Class 8 OTR demand and used demand remained soft; management expects slight sequential improvement in Q2 Class 8 and aftermarket, with visibility in H2 constrained by tariff and emissions policy uncertainty.
• Capital returns: $0.18 dividend declared (payable Jun 12), $30.9M repurchases in Q1; on May 29, the buyback authorization was increased by $50M to $200M total, signaling confidence in cash generation.

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Medium-duty sales resilience and outperformance aided mix; “Ready to Roll” inventory program helped steady Class 4–7 despite industry contraction.
• Aftermarket remained a profit anchor: absorption ratio 128.6% (vs 130.1% y/y), with sequential revenue improvement vs Q4 and continued strength in public sector/vocational/leasing segments.
• Strategic/capital allocation: dividend maintained at $0.18; $30.9M repurchased in Q1; subsequent authorization raised to $200M (from $150M) on May 29, underscoring balance sheet strength and FCF confidence.

What Went Wrong

• Class 8 OTR demand softened significantly due to freight recession, tariff and emissions uncertainty; industry-wide elevated inventory pressured pricing.
• Aftermarket revenue declined 4.6% y/y due to fewer working days, rollover of 2024 campaigns, and weaker winter-storm-related work; miles driven remain weak, limiting maintenance demand.
• Used truck demand/pricing remained soft; utilization in rental dipped slightly y/y; management emphasized limited visibility, particularly in H2 given policy resets under review.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Thank you. I would like to turn the call over now to Mr. Rusty Rush, Chairman, CEO, and President. Please go ahead.

Rusty Rush (Chairman, CEO and President)

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our first quarter 2025 earnings call. With me on the call this morning are Jason Wilder, Chief Operating Officer; Steve Keller, Chief Financial Officer; Jay Hazelwood, Vice President and Controller; and Michael Goldstone, Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary. Before we begin, Steve will say a few words regarding forward-looking statements.

Steve Keller (CFO)

Certain statements we will make today are considered forward-looking statements, as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Because these statements include risk and uncertainties, our actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, those discussed in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, and our other filings to the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Rusty Rush (Chairman, CEO and President)

As we stated in our news release yesterday afternoon, in the first quarter, we achieved revenues of $1.85 billion, and net income of $60.3 million, or $0.73 per diluted share. We remain committed to returning value to our shareholders, so I'm proud to announce that our Board of Directors has again declared a cash dividend of $0.18 per common share for the quarter. The business environment in the first quarter was difficult, to say the least. The industry continues to struggle with a freight recession, economic uncertainty, growing concerns around US trade policies and tariffs, and the future of emissions regulations. These factors caused a slowdown in customer activity, particularly in the Class 8 over-the-road segment. Truck sales to Class 8 customers were weaker as we began the year.

However, thanks to our continued focus on strategic initiatives and our diversified customer base, we managed to outperform the broader market in the first quarter, primarily due to strong sales to the vocational and public sector customers. In the medium-duty truck sales market, while the overall market was down, our unique Ready-to-Roll inventory program was particularly effective, and again, we outperformed the industry with steady Class 4 through 7 sales in the quarter. From a used truck perspective, we saw a typical seasonal pattern: slower sales in January and February, but a good pickup in March, giving us sequential growth from the fourth quarter. With respect to our aftermarket results, our parts, service, and body shop revenues were $619 million in the quarter, down 4.6% compared to last year. Our absorption ratio was 128.6% compared to 130.1% in the quarter Q1 of 2024, but still very strong.

Despite tough market conditions, we experienced a slight improvement in aftermarket sales revenues compared to the fourth quarter of last year, with demand from our public sector, vocational, and medium-duty leasing customers remaining steady, and sales to the energy sector beginning to pick up. We also expanded our aftermarket sales force in the first quarter, which should help us provide an even higher level of service to our customers going forward. All things considered, operations in the first quarter. Looking ahead, we expect to see some improvement in aftermarket revenues in Q2. We added service technicians during the first quarter, which will allow us to decrease customer dwell time going forward. We also continue to optimize our parts delivery routes and improve our call center operations, which help us serve more customers efficiently.

With respect to the second half of the year, we are actively monitoring the supply chain and the impact that proposed tariffs may have on parts availability and pricing. We believe that we are well-positioned with our parts inventory to mitigate the effects of any potential supply chain disruptions. The Class 8 new truck sales market continues to face challenges. ACT Research says that U.S. and Canadian retail truck sales totaled $57,946 in the first quarter, down 9% year over year. By comparison, we were down 7.8%, selling 3,222 new Class 8 trucks and accounting for 6.1% of the total U.S. market and 1.1% of the new Class 8 market in Canada. While this was a tough quarter, I'm pleased that we outperformed the market. Looking ahead at Q2 and the back half of the year, ACT Research revised its U.S.

and Canadian Class 8 sales forecast downward to 234,600 units in 2025, a 14.7% decline compared to last year. However, we do anticipate a slight improvement in Class 8 sales in the second quarter due to the timing of some fleet deliveries. At this point, there is too much market uncertainty to predict what demand will look like in the second half for our over-the-road customers, but we remain optimistic about demand from our vocational and public sector customers throughout 2025. In medium-duty sales, the overall market declined 3.5% in the first quarter, but our performance remained stable, and we sold 3,329 new Class 4 through 7 trucks, outpacing the market and increasing our market share to 5.6% of the U.S. Class 4 through 7 market and 3.1% of the Canadian Class 5 through 7 market. ACT Research forecasts U.S.

and Canadian sales of Class 4 through 7 trucks to be 254,050 in 2025, down 7.2% compared to last year. Going forward, we expect customers to be cautious replacing vehicles rather than expanding their fleet, but our strategic approach to stocking work-ready vehicles should allow us to meet customer needs when and where they need vehicles, and we expect to continue to outperform the market this year. We sold 1,769 used trucks in the first quarter, down 2.7% compared to 2024. As of now, demand remains soft, and tariffs have not yet affected used truck pricing, but we have been proactive in increasing inventories slightly in preparation for the spring and summer selling season, and we believe our stock levels are where they need to be to meet customer needs. Our Rush Truck Leasing Division delivered solid results again in the first quarter.

Leasing and rental revenue increased 2.3% compared to Q1 of 2024 and totaled $90 million for the quarter. Rental revenue is down just slightly year over year due to lower utilization rates, but full-service leasing continues to perform well as we put additional vehicles into service. I'm confident that our leasing and rental business will stay strong throughout the year. While we faced our share of challenges in the first quarter, I'm proud of how our team has navigated the uncertainty that is currently impacting the commercial vehicle industry. As I said in the news release, what remains unclear for us and for the industry as a whole is how the second half of the year is going to play out.

The ongoing concerns around tariffs, their impact on the economy, and how current emission regulations may be modified are making some customers hesitant to move forward with vehicle purchasing decisions. That said, I'm confident in our position as we navigate these challenges, and I believe our dealer network, strong relationships with customers and manufacturers, and our broad product offerings will allow us to respond quickly as these policies take shape. Before I close, I want to take a moment to thank our employees. The first quarter of 2025 has been tough, but our team has shown incredible resilience. They work tirelessly to help customers through these uncertain times while keeping our long-term goals in sight and continuing to manage expenses. Their dedication directly contributed to our performance this quarter, and I am extremely grateful for their efforts. I'll take your questions.

Operator (participant)

At this time, I would like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. Your first question comes from the line of Daniel Imbro with Stephens, please go ahead.

Daniel Imbro (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah. Hey, good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the questions.

Rusty Rush (Chairman, CEO and President)

Good morning, Daniel.

Daniel Imbro (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Rusty, obviously, a lot of moving pieces out there. Maybe we'll just start on the demand back.

Rusty Rush (Chairman, CEO and President)

Exactly, please.

Daniel Imbro (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Exactly. Can you talk about maybe how new unit sales trended through the quarter, maybe here into April? We've seen a lot of the larger fleets lowering their CapEx orders. I know those aren't always your customers, but are your customers behaving in a similar way? Kind of what are your customers telling you about their planned expenditures for the rest of the year?

Rusty Rush (Chairman, CEO and President)

I think we're taking the approach that hopefully, as we get through the back half of the year, it'll be somewhat similar to what Q2 was, right? With these ever-moving tariffs that are going on, besides business being rough, right? I mean, you've seen the earnings releases that have come out from all the carriers, right? And we do do business with those carriers. Not a lot of them, not all of them by any stretch, but they are a component of what we do. The tariff bouncing around has made it very difficult. If you'd have come to me 60 days ago, I would have said the same thing about Q2 that I'm telling you about the back half of the year, okay?

Once we got a little clarity, when I say clarity, we got clarity like 60-90 days out, but we do not have clarity throughout the whole year, and that is the toughest thing we are dealing with, right? I would have said, "Oh, boy, I am really concerned about Q2." As I mentioned in there, we expect deliveries to be slightly up, not dramatically, but slightly ahead of what Class 8 deliveries were in Q1. I mean, it is just those uncertainties, Daniel. I mean, like you said, a lot of people, I know people, I am not going to name names, but I know people that have shut off total buying for the back half of the year. It is understood that it is just really, really difficult. I do not have to give you a—so I am hoping the same thing happens with Q3 and Q4.

You've heard me use this phrase a few times over the last year or so. It's hand-to-mouth, baby. It is not something we're not used to. I would tell you that backlogs, while the OEMs we deal with are not full through Q2 still, there are still slots available in June. As you can see, it's hard to put your arms around where Q3 is going to be when you still got slots available in Q2. Not a whole lot, but there are some slots that are available in Q2. It is very difficult to price right now because tariffs just came up again last week. They're being relooked at again. I mean, we still don't have certainty around the emissions, okay? You saw that House maybe yesterday passed a bill, is that housing is the federal government's going back and forth with CARB out in California.

We're going to see how that all plays out. We do not have established emissions. We have them, but they're under siege right now, right or wrong, for January 1 or 2027, right? I expect those to change. I don't have the detail. I'm not here to project on what that will—well, how it will change, but with the current administration that's in it right now, there's no question it's going to change, and it should change. All these uncertainties just create—it's hard to run a business living in an uncertain world like that. It may be this way for a while, okay, until things smooth out, and I can't tell you when that is. I think there's another—I don't think we'll get any on the emissions side. I think we're still 45 days or so away from getting more clarity.

I know the bill was going to be going to the House as we try to come up with a solution that makes sense, not the one that's in place currently, which does not make sense. The tariff thing, like I said, they're relooking at it again as of last week. I think if we're going to see us operating in these short windows, I don't think you're going to see these big backlogs out through the rest of the year. If you do, and if you're counting on backlogs in the fourth quarter being worth the paper they're written on, good luck because things change quickly right now. I think there will be some demand, but I'm in line with what ACT said when it comes to they're off around 15%.

I'll take that right now, to be honest with you, for the year as I look out there and see. I'm not trying to be Debbie Downer here about it, but it's just the reality of what we're dealing with. I think you see that we were still able to put out a pretty good quarter given everything we're dealing with, and I would hope that we'll be able to continue to operate. Look, let's go back. We won't talk about Russia in particular. I know I'm rambling on, but here we go. Let's go back to 2020, right? Let's go back to COVID. Go look at the performance of the organization. Whether we had allocation or we're five-week lead times, we've been able to perform, and I expect us to continue to perform as we go forward, no matter what the environment is.

Daniel Imbro (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah. If it's hand-to-mouth, at least you guys have the experience and done this before. Maybe for my follow-up, Rusty, if you could just expand a bit on the parts and service. Obviously, it was softer in 1Q. Was that more in any one part of the business, collision, big fleets versus small fleets? You mentioned you expected an improvement in 2Q. Did you mean a return to year-over-year growth or just sequentially higher than the Q1?

Sequential, okay? I'm hoping, but I'm not here to guarantee any year-over-year growth, right? I think one of the key things is you asked about Q1, we'll start there. It started off slow. I mean, weather in January, I know there's always weather, but we had more store shutdown days this year than we did the prior year. In January, with some of the rough weather that came through, I was very concerned in January. We saw a pickup in February, and we saw a pickup from there into March. I mean, I'll be honest, we just looked at April this morning. Obviously, it's the first of May. April was solid. It was choppy, maybe a little off per day average, but it looks like our backlog is similar.

When I talk about that, that's work in process as to what we were at the end of March, very similar within a point or so. I'm not—it's just a little bit—it's choppy, right? Again, the uncertainty is wrapped around. Right now, you go ask anybody, what you're seeing lots and less of is miles driven. Miles driven is not really good. You'll see that customers, especially the over-the-road customers, are not putting the miles on their vehicles that they historically had. Obviously, with less miles, probably needs less maintenance and less repair to go with it. That said, given the dynamics of all the programs that we have out there, I do believe we'll be able to have sequential growth because January and February were softer, right?

We picked up through March, a little bit choppy, and maybe here I am just looking at numbers today for April, but we are real close. Typically, these months are better months for us. When you get into May and June and July and get into summer and your air conditioning work picks up and things like that around the country because we have a lot of stores in the south. I would look for sequential growth. I am not here to commit to year-over-year growth. What I have to be able to commit to is if you look at our expense management. Year-over-year, we were down in G&A, which is what I really look at. ESS is nothing but a derivative of sales. G&A was off 5.5% year-over-year. That is why you only saw a 1.5% drop really in the store operating absorption number, right?

If you're at 4.5 down, but you're only 1.5, you made a lot of it up from an expense perspective, right? That's the key thing is we do have more than one lever to hit as we go without tearing it apart. Again, choppy, but we're pretty fluid, as I've said. I believe we've proved that out over the last five years in the business model, and we'll continue to operate in the environment in the hand we're dealt. I'm confident in the company. I'm confident in our folks. I'm confident in our leadership that we'll make the right decisions to continue to, in my mind, outperform the market. Even though we're the only public truck dealer, really, that's just a truck dealer, I know I got one or two other comps out there. I do expect us to outperform like we usually do in the past.

All super helpful, Keller. I really appreciate it, and best of luck.

Rusty Rush (Chairman, CEO and President)

You bet. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Andrew Obin (Managing Director and Equity Research)

Hey, Rusty. How are you?

Rusty Rush (Chairman, CEO and President)

I'm good, Andrew.

Andrew Obin (Managing Director and Equity Research)

Okay. As I hear you correct on second quarter, sequentially Class 8 is going to be better, and sequentially parts and services is going to be better. That's right, right? I heard that correct.

Rusty Rush (Chairman, CEO and President)

Let's see. Whoa, Andrew. Whoa, whoa, whoa. Slightly.

Andrew Obin (Managing Director and Equity Research)

Slightly. No, I get it. Yeah.

Rusty Rush (Chairman, CEO and President)

Slightly. Let's don't get carried away here. The problem is the uncertainty, man. I'd tell you what it was exactly like if I knew. But if you hadn't noticed since we had our first 100 days, every day has been different since January the 20th. I'm not being critical there, but a lot of stuff changes on a daily basis. It just makes it very difficult running a business and for me to give forecasts that are out there. That's why I'm only going—you don't see me going out in the back half of the year. I told you on the committee on the call, I couldn't hold you Q2 60 days ago, but we were able to put something together when we got some clarity of what pricing was going to be in Q2, right? Again, they're relooking at tariffs again.

The back half of the year is still up in the air. Also dealing with what's going on in the economy.

Andrew Obin (Managing Director and Equity Research)

No, that's not.

Rusty Rush (Chairman, CEO and President)

Slightly.

Andrew Obin (Managing Director and Equity Research)

Okay. No, I totally appreciate it. Can you just tell us sequentially? I know in April, there were some holiday timing issues, but parts and services in April, did that get better or did that stay stable from March or did that slow down? How did it—I know we're getting hypergranular here, but was there a slowdown in April?

Rusty Rush (Chairman, CEO and President)

Yeah, Jay. Slightly less than April per day average. I attribute it, hopefully—hopefully I'm right. I'm attributing it to the Easter week, okay? Easter week, we did not have a very good week, right? I will tell you this. We closed good. We did not catch it all up here at the end, but we did close better here over the last week. I am hoping that we can maintain some of that. By the way, it was still better than January and February, okay, per day average. It was not quite to where April was on a per day average, but Easter week was a rough week. If you had asked me where we ended up today, if you had asked me a week ago, I would have taken it, okay? I felt we had a good close to the month.

I know we're getting granular, but there's certain pockets in the country that I can attribute. I know you always like to know where around the country where things are, but there are certain pockets that you can attribute some of this, a little bit of softness to, to be honest with you.

Andrew Obin (Managing Director and Equity Research)

Okay. As I think, just I assume that G&A is just fixed as what it is, but as I think relative to 2022, as I think about SG&A cost, is that a good baseline for what SG&A can be, or were you so bare bones during COVID that it's not applicable? I should just assume that there has been some inflation over the past two, three years.

Rusty Rush (Chairman, CEO and President)

Yeah. No, let's not go back that far down. There's no way I'm going to get back down to that number right now, or I'll be cutting meat and bone out of the place because it costs a little bit more money. We didn't give back all that inflationary pressures that we took in 2023 and 2022, it's not like we've had deflation. You continue to have inflation. That's why we've maintained pretty flat since I made those cuts last year around this time. Right now, a year ago, we've maintained, which is what's allowed us—that's why Q1 was off 5.5% over last year's Q1. We've been able to hold it. Is there more we can do? Possibly. We're continuing to look at that on a rather daily, weekly basis. As I get clarity, I make those decisions.

I continue to get clarity of the market I'm in, right? I'm going to see how April closes. I'll get the nets on April. I'll look at where we are from a G&A perspective. I mean, when I say hand-to-mouth, it's hand-to-mouth in every facet of the business. Is that a bad thing? No, it's just the reality of it, right? I don't think anybody—I'm very confident in our ability to react. Maybe I can't project as well as I'd like to project for you, but I'm very confident in our ability to react or proactively act, should I say, given what we see in front of us. It's just the runway is really short. There's a lot of haze, a lot of fog when I rolled off all the things that are going on. That is not just for me. That is for our customers.

We're driven by what customers see, okay? What they do, what affects them. It's hard to make a decision if you're a customer to go out and make an acquisition of product. You're not going to see any growth, even to which you're running less miles. Maybe you don't have to replace it as often, right? I mean, there's a lot of things that are not positive out there from the macro perspective. The most positive thing is our ability, in my mind, to be able to navigate and make the right decisions given the market that we're headed. Again, though, I'm not projecting doom and gloom in the back half . I'm just giving uncertainty because I don't have clarity for it. As I get it, I'll be happy to tell you. That's why I'm giving you a little.

Andrew Obin (Managing Director and Equity Research)

Yeah. What do you think it would take for OEs to sort of get more clarity on sort of production schedules for the second half? Is it clarity on—I appreciate that it's both uncertainty about whether or not we're going to recession, but it's also uncertainty about sort of treatment of their content under the new tariff rules. Do they go together, hand in hand, or I know that one of the competitors has sort of given pricing, but it doesn't seem to sort of drive demand for trucks. What sort of unclogs this bottleneck?

Rusty Rush (Chairman, CEO and President)

One has, but there are some stipulations wrapped around it. Remember, sometimes the devil is in the detail. Always remember that. As you look at it, look, Andrew, it is all the above. It is our customer's business. It is the clarity with tariffs. As I said, they just announced they are going to do a relook last week. That is supposed to happen over the next few weeks. It could change again, just like it did on the automotive side this week, right? I mean, we do not—I mean, their business, our customer's business is not—I think we saw that first quarter GDP results. Go look at the earnings releases of the public carriers. They are not that good. They have not been. It is no disrespect to them. It is just the facts of the market they are dealing with, okay?

Fortunately, as I've talked about, we've had decent vocational business, decent municipal business that have allowed us to continue to perform. What's going to have to happen is business has to get better. Okay? We can't have contraction in GDP and expect us for business to get any better. People are going to have to start running more miles. We're going to, and we got to get clarity on tariffs. I mean, we think we have them right now, but as I said, they just announced last week they're going to relook at it again. We do not know about emissions, okay? I do believe it's not going to be as stringent in 2021. We were supposed to have this big prebuy, right? Big prebuy. Going to start in 2025. That's the back half of 2025. Now, nobody even talks about it. Why?

Because we don't even know the regs. The regs are not done. It's probably 45 days. The House passed yesterday some stuff around it. The Senate's got to take it on. Again, that's clarity, right? Are we going to need it? So price is going to go up X. Are we going to require these super long extended warranties? What's the—what are the milligrams going to be in the night stuff? I mean, all we were pushing out GHG3 out into 2030, but there's no solid answer on all of that. You throw all these things in along with a tough economy and not miles being driven. Andrew, I don't have your answer. All I can tell you is I'm not saying it's doom and gloom. I'm just saying it's a short window. I cannot see out that far.

I don't think anybody can really right now. I guess the ability of—

Andrew Obin (Managing Director and Equity Research)

Just the last question for me. What's been access to credit? Are people still willing to finance customers or sort of people who provide credit to the industry? Are they providing, are they pulling on credit or they're providing incentives? What's happening in terms of sort of liquidity in the market and ability for you and your customers to access credit? Easy or hard at the same? Thank you.

Rusty Rush (Chairman, CEO and President)

About the same. Credit's not—I don't see any issues with credit at the moment. I mean, there's not a lot of people running around taking subprime credit, but other than that, if you've got—if you've got a good balance sheet, you've got a good customer, no, I don't think there's still availability of money out there for you. That's not an issue. When you say incentives, I don't know if you're talking about vehicles or not. There really is nothing like that going on because we're just pricing out a few months right now. Most of the manufacturers are. As I keep saying, one manufacturer stepped out, devil's in the details. I understand sometimes. That could be under—since they announced last week that they're relooking, I would be very concerned about—I understand why manufacturers have not been able to stretch out.

I don't like it, neither do customers, but you're living in an environment that changes. It was changing February until March to April, and now we're doing another relook. It's just difficult. All I can tell you is I'm very confident in us. Our track record speaks for itself. We're nimble. We will sell trucks. We will work on trucks, and we will continue to produce solid results. We have many levers to pull. We don't just sell trucks. We don't just work and sell parts. We don't just sell service. We sell a lot of different things. We have dispense lines to work with. We have many different levers to outperform the market regardless of the hand we're dealt, okay? That's all I can tell you about it.

I don't have the answers as to what the back half is going to look like, but I can tell you as soon as I know, I'll let you know if you want to know.

Andrew Obin (Managing Director and Equity Research)

I'll take it. Thanks so much, Rusty.

Rusty Rush (Chairman, CEO and President)

You bet you.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Avi Jaroslawicz of UBS. Please go ahead.

Avi Jaroslawicz (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Hi. Good morning, guys.

Rusty Rush (Chairman, CEO and President)

Good morning.

Avi Jaroslawicz (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

I know it's got to be hard to parse this out, but in the hesitancy that you are seeing from customers, would you say it's more from the uncertainty to the prices or more just the uncertainty on the macro impacts that would affect their revenues or profitability?

Rusty Rush (Chairman, CEO and President)

I would say first and foremost, their business. I mean, I don't know that I could—I'm not going to say 60/40 or 55/45. It's both. The first thing that needs to happen for someone to get confidence is your own business has to be solid, right? I think if you read some of these reports, they've been really difficult, right? People can stretch out lives on vehicles. It's also very difficult when I can't price them and tell them what I'm going to sell them a truck for in October or November or any of those things. You can do it with your price is this with a caveat unless somebody decides to change the tariff laws and the rules. Customers understand that. They don't like it. We don't like it. For me to say which is more, it's both, okay?

I know that's kind of a lame answer, but it's the truth. And that's all I ever tell. So it's the truth. It's both. First, your business has to be good. Why am I—first off, no one's growing their fleet. Let's get real, okay? The only people that—if you're just trying to get replacement. People can slow replacement down too. Products are not what they were 30 years ago. They're much better. You can put more miles on product. By the way, if you're not running as many miles, I can run it longer and keep appreciating what I got. Mileage, as I said earlier, I mentioned a couple of times, miles being run on vehicles. I'm not getting into ton miles. I'm getting into vehicles themselves or down. I can probably stretch it out a little bit.

Again, we just need some certainty around all of this, by the way. Tell me what it's going to cost for a vehicle in January of 2027. I don't know. We know it's going to be less than what it was projected to be a year ago. We just don't know how those regs come out and how that affects the OEMs and the engine manufacturers and how it affects their—what it's going to take from a cost perspective, from their perspective, especially on the warranty piece. Their business first and then tariffs next. I can price you for 60 days, but I really can't price you six months out without a caveat. Again, we're learning.

Avi Jaroslawicz (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

That definitely makes sense. I guess part of what I'm trying to understand is just if the economy does end up holding up okay, what kind of demand destruction we could see just from the higher prices. I don't know if you have a view on that. I'd be curious.

Rusty Rush (Chairman, CEO and President)

I think we'll see. If the economy would hold up and just this is what it's going to be. It's something I've always told everybody. You tell me the rules and I'll figure out how to play the game. The problem is they keep changing the rules, man. That has made it a little bit difficult, not just for me, but for my customer base. The cost is what the cost is. Unfortunately, prices of trucks have gone up dramatically, as we all know. It's crazy to me. I think back of how much they've accelerated over the last few years, especially the last couple, three. Then your business has to be better. Why? So you can push those costs through. That has not been the case. We had an oversupply of trucks for a couple of years. Remember?

We sold all those trucks really in 2022 and 2023. We still had a pretty big year in 2024, more than we were anticipating when we went into it. There has been an oversupply of trucks for the freight that's out there. It has just been a—I have never seen a freight recession last this long, right? It has been quite unique. It is on the negative side of uniqueness, by the way. I mean, I know it is—I am hoping that we can get some stability in the overall economy and continue to—I am not sure where we are at in the last couple of months of taking trucks out of the marketplace because we had to get a balance between supply and demand so that customers would—we thought, remember, six months ago, we thought we saw it turning, right? We are going to get it turned.

By right now, they're going to get rate increases. If they are, they're really slight. You've seen the reports that are out there. They're not what we were anticipating giving on contracts six months ago, but who anticipated all this upheaval with tariffs and everything else? You look at what's going on, it'll be going on at the ports. We haven't seen all the effects of it yet either. Those effects are still coming downstream. Again, I'm not being Debbie Downer. I'm just a realist. I have concerns for my stuff in California. Those ports with all that Chinese stuff that comes in and how much flows through the Port of LA and the Port of Long Beach.

Now, we'll navigate it, but it's still not good for business overall because what we're doing is more of a longer term, all these tariffs to drive manufacturing back to our country. You don't just add water and stir a flip of light switch, and we can open up new manufacturing plants. That takes time. There is an interim of pain. Even our president has said that there's going to be some pain. That is what we're dealing with. I think that's what we will continue to deal with for the near-term future because we haven't gotten to all of it yet by any stretch, okay? I can tell you that. It keeps changing. It's just hard.

Avi Jaroslawicz (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah. Definitely understand that. Just want to circle back to the regulations quickly. Last quarter, you felt pretty confident that we would still see the low NOx regulations take place with or without the warranty. You still think that's the case, or just no confidence that we're going to have a better place?

Rusty Rush (Chairman, CEO and President)

I do not want to get in where I should not be. I think you are going to have something lower, yeah. It may not be as low as what they had, okay? That is being debated right now by people above my pay grade. I would tell you that sure it is going to be lower than what it currently is, but it may not be as low as what was originally said or originally put out there. That is going on as we speak. That debate is going on as we speak. I am giving insight into that would probably be a little out of my—I do not think I should. I do not know. Let us see. Someone is going to tell me. Yeah. We will know in this quarter. That is what I said earlier. We will know in 45 days or so. We will know where we are at.

By the time this quarter is over with, we'll have the answers. I am going to just let it play out and stay out of it. It is going to be a good thing, okay? There is nothing wrong. What we were trying to do was just not right. This country in no way was prepared to flip a switch and everything go electric and all this stuff. We do not have the grid, the infrastructure. That is a long-term equation. We had people running with it like it is just easy, like add water and stir. There are 120 years of infrastructure investment in internal combustion. You are not going to change it in five or six years. That was asinine to believe you could do that. It is a good thing. How it works itself out as to what the levels are, that is for smarter people than me to figure out.

It is going to be the right thing, right? It is the right thing to do. That is all I can tell you. What that does is it probably does not drive as big a pre-buy, right? Especially with the tough overall economic situation that we are suddenly liable to see caused by tariffs and not just by tariffs, but just everything that is going on right now. I am not closing the door to a pre-buy in 2026 by any stretch, but every day that goes by, January 1, 2027 gets closer. You are condensing it, right? You are condensing that time frame. You are fighting an uphill battle when you have all the reports about how rough it is on customers anyway. Regardless, I have to have business regardless of the price of a truck, regardless of the technology.

I've got to have my business fairly straight so I can go buy something, right? Those are some headwinds. I would expect a pre-buy of some kind. I just don't think it's—you can clearly say what it'll be given the unknowns of regulations, first off, and the unknowns around the tariffs. Really, when you talk about the federal unknown regulations, those regulations will have a lot to say. Their business. Remember, first and foremost, it's your own business. I mean, I could take you back. I remember in 2010 when we switched to SCR, okay? We were going to have this big, big year at 2009. Do you remember 2008 and 2009? The economy kind of rode over all that, didn't it? You can go look at the numbers. 2009 never made the pre-buy it was supposed to.

Hopefully, we can get the economy straight. Hopefully, we can get some of this settled down, some of this uncertainty that's out there that's been created in this last 100 days and get back on where we can see a window, see a path in front of us to where, okay, I can make that investment. I can do this. I know where my business is going. That's the key thing. All these things getting flushed out and giving us some direction. That's the most important thing I can tell you for someone like myself. I know running my business. I'll say it one last time, the fact that I am very confident in Rush Enterprises being able to make adjustments and navigate the uncertainties of the world we're in and give performance above and beyond our peers.

Avi Jaroslawicz (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

All makes sense to me. All right. Appreciate the perspective. Best of luck.

Rusty Rush (Chairman, CEO and President)

You bet.

Operator (participant)

I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Rusty Rush, Chairman, CEO and President, for the closing remarks. Please go ahead.

Rusty Rush (Chairman, CEO and President)

Sure. I appreciate everyone's attendance this morning. I look forward to talking to you sometime in late July, hopefully, with some more certainty and clarity. Maybe I can give you a six-month window instead of a three-month window, okay? Anyway, everybody have a great day. Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.