Rush Enterprises - Earnings Call - Q4 2024

Executive Summary

• Q4 2024 revenue was $2.01B and diluted EPS was $0.91; revenue was flat year-over-year vs $2.03B, while EPS declined from $0.95; sequentially, revenue rose from $1.90B in Q3 and EPS fell modestly from $0.97.
• Aftermarket revenue of $606.3M declined 2.1% year-over-year and sequentially, while the absorption ratio improved year-over-year to 133.0% (vs 130.8%), reflecting disciplined expense control and service mix strength.
• Vehicle mix showed medium-duty strength (new medium-duty revenue up year-over-year to $400.9M) and resilient vocational/public sector sales; heavy-duty and used sales remained pressured by freight recession and credit conditions.
• Outlook: management expects Class 8 retail sales to remain challenging in H1 2025, improving in H2; monitoring potential tariffs on Canada/Mexico/China and emissions-driven pre-buy dynamics; committed to growing national accounts, mobile service, and technician workforce.
• Capital return: $0.18 dividend declared for payment on March 18, 2025; new $150M stock repurchase program adopted in December 2024, with $6.5M repurchased in Q4 and $54.9M dividends paid in 2024.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Medium-duty outperformance: new Class 4–7 sales rose 5.1% in 2024 and outpaced the market, with Q4 medium-duty revenue up to $400.9M year-over-year. “We are proud of our medium-duty truck sales performance… and significantly outperformed the market”.
• Service mix resilience: service and body shop revenues were up year-over-year, and absorption ratio improved to 133.0% in Q4 (vs 130.8% last year), highlighting initiatives like mobile service and planned maintenance.
• Leasing strength and fleet refresh: lease and rental revenue increased 1.3% in Q4; ~1,500 leasing units replaced in H2 2024, reducing age and maintenance costs and positioning for higher revenue with newer fleet.

What Went Wrong

• Over-the-road Class 8 demand remained weak, pressuring heavy-duty and parts volumes; Q4 new heavy-duty revenue fell to $773.4M from $816.5M year-over-year, and used vehicle revenue fell to $86.2M from $95.2M.
• Aftermarket headwinds persisted: Q4 parts and service revenue declined year-over-year to $606.3M and sequentially from $633.0M in Q3 due to lower sales to over-the-road and wholesale customers.
• Profitability compression: Q4 operating income declined year-over-year to $112.2M (from $120.1M) and gross margin moderated vs last year amid competitive pricing and inventory dynamics industry-wide.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Rush Enterprises' Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Results. At this time all participants are in listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising that your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. Now, I'd like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Rusty Rush, Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer, and President. Please go ahead.

Rusty Rush (Chairman of the Board, CEO, and President)

Well, good morning everyone. Thanks for joining our fourth quarter and year end 2024 conference call. I have with me today Jason Wilder, Chief Operating Officer, Steve Keller, Chief Financial Officer, Jay Hazelwood, Vice President Controller, and Michael Goldstone, Senior Vice President, General Counsel, and Corporate Secretary. Now Steve Keller will say a few words regarding forward looking statements.

Steve Keller (CFO)

Certain statements we will make today are considered forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Because these statements include risks and uncertainties, our actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, those discussed in our annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2023 and in our other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Rusty Rush (Chairman of the Board, CEO, and President)

As we mentioned in our news release, we had $7.8 billion in annual revenues for 2024 and our net income was $304.2 million or $3.72 per diluted share. For the fourth quarter our revenues were $2 billion and our net income was $74.7 million or $0.91 per diluted share. We are also happy to announce a cash dividend of $0.18 per common share. 2024 was a challenging year for the industry which faced persistent headwinds including the ongoing freight recession, high interest rates and economic uncertainty. These factors hit over-the-road carriers hard leading to weak demand for new Class 8 trucks from that customer segment. However, our strength in public sector and vocational markets helped balance things out and we managed to hold our ground in a tough Class 8 aftermarket.

Our Class 4 through 7 truck sales were strong across various customer segments and we outperformed the market in the medium duty truck sales. The used truck market remains challenging, but we continue to execute well on our sales strategy and were able to deliver strong profits. The same challenging operating conditions that impacted new Class 8 truck sales also impacted the aftermarket industry, but our sales force's dedication to our strategic initiatives helped us to slightly outperform the industry despite the difficult operating environment that we faced in 2024. I am very proud of our financial results focusing on the aftermarket. Our parts, service and body shop revenues were $2.5 billion last year, down 1.8% from 2023. Our absorption ratio was 132.2% compared to 135.3% in 2023.

Even though our aftermarket revenues were slightly down, we grew our market share by expanding our national account sales force, which allowed us to enhance our service to large strategic accounts. Demand was sluggish for the over-the-road energy and wholesale customers, but we saw strong sales to vocational public sector and medium-duty leasing customers. In 2025, we expect aftermarket demand to remain soft the first few months due to the freight market continuing to struggle, which results in lower over-the-road fleet utilization rates. However, we are optimistic that demand will pick up as the year goes on and the freight market improves and we believe that our focus on growing our national account customer base and our other aftermarket strategic initiatives will result in revenue growth this year.

We are also committed to expanding our technician workforce in 2025, particularly mobile technicians, which will allow us to reduce vehicle dwell time in our shops, better serve our customers, increase back counter sales and grow market share. Regarding truck sales, we sold 15,465 new Class 8 trucks in 2024, down 11.4% year over year, representing 6.1% of the U.S. market and 1.7% of the Canadian market. Market conditions were tough with high inventory levels and competitive price. However, our sales to specialty market customers helped offset weak demand from our over-the-road customers. ACT Research forecast U.S. and Canadian sales of new Class 8 trucks to be 277,200 units in 2025, basically flat with 2024, and we expect sales to be challenging in the first half of 2025. We anticipate the demand will improve in the second half of the year as freight rates recover.

In addition, despite uncertainty around engine emissions regulations, we believe the EPA's clean diesel regulations will drive some pre-buy activity later this year. We are optimistic that pre-buys along with strong vocational sales will allow us to achieve strong new Class 8 truck sales and keep pace with the market in 2025. Our Class 4 through 7 new truck sales were up 5.1% year over year with 13,935 units sold in 2024, representing 5.3% of the U.S. market and 3.1% in the Canadian market. Medium duty vehicle production stabilized and delivery lead times improved throughout the year. Our strategic focus on diversifying our customer base and focusing on large national accounts paid off and we outperformed the market in new Class 4 through 7 truck sales.

ACT Research forecasts U.S. and Canadian sales of new Class 4 through 7 trucks to be 282,250 units in 2025, up 5.3% from 2024. However, supply has caught up with demand and we believe the medium duty market may begin to slow in 2025. Nevertheless, we believe that our expertise in the medium duty sector and our Ready-to-Roll program will help us achieve strong medium duty commercial sales in 2025. We sold 7,110 used trucks in 2024, basically flat year-over-year. The used truck market was challenging due to values continuing to fall and tight credit, but our disciplined inventory and pricing strategies helped us deliver strong results. With freight rates showing signs of improvement and used truck value stabilizing, we are cautiously optimistic about 2025. Leasing and rental revenue was $354.9 million, basically flat for 2023. Our Rush Truck Leasing division continues to be a key contributor to our overall performance.

While rental revenue was slightly down in the fourth quarter, leasing revenue increased as we replaced 1,500 units in our fleet.

As the age of our leasing and rental fleet decreases, we should recognize higher revenue and lower maintenance and operating costs. Going forward, we expect our lease and rental business to remain strong in 2025. I wanted to remind everyone that due to seasonal increases in employee benefits and payroll taxes that occur in the first quarter of every year, we expect our G&A expenses to be sequentially higher in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. Lastly, I want to make a final comment on the proposed tariffs that may impact vehicles and component parts manufactured in Canada, Mexico, or China. We are currently monitoring this situation closely. If such tariffs are enacted and significantly increase the aggregate price of new commercial vehicles or parts, we believe the demand for new truck, new commercial vehicles and parts could decrease in 2025.

Before we wrap up, I want to thank our employees for their hard work and dedication in 2024. Despite the challenges, they stayed focused on our strategic initiatives and expense reduction goals, helping us achieve strong financial results. With that, I will take your questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. At this time, we'll conduct the question and answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question you will need to press star 11 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q-and-A roster.

And our first question comes from the line of Andrew Obin of Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Andrew Obin (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Yes, good morning, can you hear me?

Rusty Rush (Chairman of the Board, CEO, and President)

Yes, we've got you, Andrew.

Andrew Obin (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Excellent. Rusty, given your commentary about second half recovery, how should we think about earnings seasonality in 2025 vs. a normal seasonal pattern? And I'll just throw in specifically when does parts and service turn positive again? So two-part question, thank you.

Rusty Rush (Chairman of the Board, CEO, and President)

You got it. No, Andrew, it's going to be an interesting year, the first half of the year. We're still in the lingering effects of the freight recession. Okay, without question, here in the first quarter we do expect, though, but we are seeing signs of activity, right. Regardless of what the numbers showed like in December, then the order numbers were down in January. We are seeing the last few weeks signs of activity that show. Don't tell me that, you know, we're going to get better in the over-the-road business in the back half. Vocational businesses are still strong but we believe that, you know, you're getting, I think if you check with the large over-the-road guys, they're starting to get low single to you know, maybe up close trying to get maybe the mid single digits on the contracts that are coming up.

So that has to take hold, right? That has to take effect. Right? And it just doesn't happen overnight, but it shows, you know, it breeds confidence in the over-the-road carriers and the fact that, okay, we are, you know, we for sure bottomed out in the back half of last year like we talked about, we talked about it prior. Well, now we start getting confidence going forward and where we're at going into, you know, going on into later into this year. And then I'll talk a little more in a minute if someone would like me to about what we see when it comes to the government regulations and all that's up in the air right now. But I do believe I'll get to the parts and service here in a second.

I do believe that when you ask about what the year is going to look like, the year is going to ramp up from the beginning to the end. Okay, tough, you know, a tougher start. But I do see and believe that by the time we get into the back half of the year we're definitely going to be on the upswing again when it comes to, you know, I looked at the overall deliveries in retail in the U.S. in January were down 2,000 units from last January. So it's only a couple thousand. You are starting being a little softer in January from where you were last year. But we do firmly believe that the back half of the year will continue to ramp up.

And I think that you're still - it's hard to talk about pre-buys and all because we got too many regulation uncertainties out there which I don't mind getting into if someone would like in a minute that are still to be, you know, we've got to figure them out. We got to see what the government does right after the administration has only been in office what, 30 days now, the new administration. And obviously I don't have to tell everyone that there's a lot of uncertainty as to how a lot of things, whether it's tariffs or EPA regulations or any of this stuff are going to shake out. Right now we've got thoughts about it. We're not sure. But I do believe that overall it's going to be a ramp up throughout the year from beginning to end.

Maybe, you know, with, you know, a better close than what we had in 2024. That would be my plan. The back half will definitely should be stronger than the 2024 back half front half. We're just going to have to work our way through it. Look, we had to work last year extremely hard, if you remember. I always called it hand to mouth, man. We were back in normal regular times where you could get. You didn't have allocation, right. You were working to get trucks and you could get them in 60-90 days. Well, guess what? That's still the environment we're in right now from a parts and service perspective. It's going to. It goes right along with what I see from when I talk about where we're at.

It goes right along with truck sales, to be honest, with ramping up throughout the year. I do think we may get a little bit more inflation which will have, can have a, sometimes a positive effect on parts and service totals when you get through them all, but we'll have to see how that all shakes out again. We do believe that it will ramp up. We will get up into maybe not the first half of the year. I look for, like I said, the first few months fairly flat, but ramping up to mid single digits and you know, growth when we get into the back half of the year is how I look at it. You know, you don't even want to do more. Right now I don't want to get you. I want to be conservative in my outlook.

I'm not one to really get out over my skis too far if you've known me for 28 years.

We have confidence that we'll be all over the market as it begins to ramp back up and we'll continue to drive. We've still got; there's still runway left in a lot of our strategic initiatives and we're always working on others behind the scenes that I may not talk about. So anyway, that would be my take on the year. It's pretty similar, both sides ramping up, especially once we get settled down with all these uncertainties that are out there right now.

Andrew Obin (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Rusty, and just a follow-up question. As things ramp up, how should we think about, you know, SG&A was one of the sources of upside in the quarter. How do we think about SG&A control as you ramp into the next cycle? Will it look similar to the prior cycle or are there any incremental savings as you get efficiency. And that will be it for me. Thank you.

Rusty Rush (Chairman of the Board, CEO, and President)

There you go. Put the heat on me on SG&A. Remember one thing, S is S. S is directly tied to the sale of trucks. Okay? So we run the business off of G&A. Our S is going to be in that 25% range or so all the time related to the gross profit of trucks. The G&A piece is what we, you know, we manage on a daily basis. I mean, you can look back at, you know, that was a big contributor this last year, big contributor. You know, we were down almost 5%. We were down 4.9% year-over-year in Q4, if I'm not mistaken. It was similar like 7% in Q3 and it was sequentially, we were sequentially flat with 3 and 4, but 3 was down like, oh, 5.2% if I remember right, over 2.

So we did an outstanding job from my perspective in managing that G&A as it ramps up as you ramp up parts and service. You know, it's not like loaning cash, loan money to someone. It does come with a G&A expense. And our goals will be to try to keep, you know, gross profit dollars recaptured on the back end. We're going to try to keep 40% or so of that. You know, I've got a goal to keep 50% or more, but typically it averages out. If you go in the ramp up period over the three-year cycle, it'll average out in that 40-something percent range to 50% because we're handling parts, we're doing this, we're doing that, we're working with whole goods. Right. So, you know, it takes people to do all that work. But that's a great situation to be in.

And if we can stay close to that 50% number in a ramp up period, then I will be very happy about it and we'll continue to. We're looking for that. Okay. I'm looking to get back, you know, we were 135 down to 132 in absorption. And that's a direct correlation obviously with gross profit on parts and gross profit and expenses. You know, we lost some gross profit last year, but we managed our expenses well to keep it that tight of a number to produce a year like that when you're going negative on your parts and service. And that's not easy. Okay. So I would expect us to even do a better job. I'm not going to get into specifics as to why I believe that.

But the world continues to evolve, you know, e-commerce continues to evolve, which actually helps when it comes to expenses. It's not all the way there, but it's only going one direction. So all these, we should be able to do business hopefully cheaper. Okay. In the future. It's not all the way there yet. We're in the truck business. We're not the most highly technical business in the world, but it is evolving and I think there will be opportunities for us to take some of that normal what we see in expenses when the cycle ramps up. Hopefully we'll be able to take some of that out. You know, with technology, as we move forward, it's not ever going to go all the way. But at the same time we ought to be able to do a better job of trying to squeeze those expenses.

But it's still, you know, we still have 390 outside salespeople, right? On the parts and service side. So, you know, they're not going away.

But you know, business, I can see a shift in our business now. This is over a longer period, you know, you know, it continues to shift right now more towards e-commerce, et cetera, et cetera, which you would hope you could take some costs out, but it can also bring in, make it a more competitive landscape too. So there's a, you know, there's yin and a yang there that you got going with it. But I know I'm giving you a long-winded answer, but you're used to my long-winded answers, so trust me, we'll. I think we'll do a better job on G&A and the ramp up than we have.

Andrew Obin (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you so much.

Rusty Rush (Chairman of the Board, CEO, and President)

You bet, you bet.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment for our next question.

Our next question comes from the line of Daniel Imbro of Stephens. Your line is now open.

Yeah, thanks. Morning everyone. This is Brady on for Daniel. Rusty, I wanted to start by asking about your different end markets. You've talked about how resilient vocational has been for you in recent years. How did that market in the year, you know, while you talked about how Class 8 fleet sales, you know, probably likely take until the back half to recover. How are you thinking about that vocational side of the business in 2025?

Rusty Rush (Chairman of the Board, CEO, and President)

Okay, yeah, no, we believe it'll still remain strong. I mean, we haven't seen.

I would say we're starting to fulfill some of that, but there is still strength in vocational.

You know, I mean our construction business, I could possibly see, I can't believe I'm saying this a little more in the oil field pickup, which we haven't had to help offset anything else. The refuse business is still strong in 2025.

So I mean, you know, I see locations remaining strong, maybe not as deep or as big a backlog right at the moment, but still strong demand. Right? So because you had a, you might remember you had a transmission issue for a while a year ago that actually pushed and we weren't able to get to all of it. Now we're chewing away at that, but we still got good demand and you know, you never know. Like I said, it's crazy for me to think with oil and gas, what, the last four years, you know, that was a bad word. But you know, obviously with a different administration there you're seeing some activity around that sector too, which we haven't had. So I feel pretty good about it. You know, again though, look, we're not backlogged with- you- I can build yourself in 60 days if you wanted. Okay.

It's not like we've got these huge one-year backlogs like we had in 2023. Okay. That's not the case at all. So, you know, there's no such thing as allocation. There's plenty of, plenty of opportunity for build trucks out there right now because most factories I don't believe are running at full tilt at the moment. I mean they're running shut down days and things like that, but they could ramp up build if demand came in line, which is something. Remember in this industry when demand hits that over-the-road side, it happens fast and it happens really quick.

So, you know, as we get into the back half of the year, you know, I wouldn't be surprised to see, you know, I'm not going to call for allocation in 2026 yet but I could see it getting there. A lot has to do with regulations and things. But back to your original question, vocational is still strong, man, and so we feel good about it.

Okay, great.

Thanks for that color. I wanted to switch gears a bit for my second question. See if we could touch on medium duty. You know medium duty has been very strong for you guys in recent years. Can you just talk a little bit about what's driving that strength and what you're expecting from medium duty in 2025?

Sure. Well, what drove that strength? Now listen, we, put end of the year medium duty was - had a big backlog. Right? They chewed away at all happened. You have to go back when we had supply issues in 2022-2023 because manufacturers that both built both medium and heavy chose to take componentry and put it towards heavy because they make more money on it. Well, that had that gave the medium duty so you had pent up demand. Medium duty was really stretched out. They weren't running them as fast and hard to manufacturers that do both. Well, guess what?

Once Class 8 slowed down last year, you know, like they chewed out the medium duty backlog. So medium duty right now is just like Class 8. I can get you one in 60 days. Okay? It's not that hard to get a medium duty truck at the moment. So while we expect, I mentioned in the call, I know that ACT has medium duty of five-something percent.

Kenny's a great friend of mine. I'm not sold on all that right at the moment for 2025 to be honest. That's just a personal opinion, but I do expect, you know, we're going to have a good year. We've got some. I know in the back half we've got some good stuff back in the fourth quarter, but that's a particular transaction, and but we're still should remain, you know. I expect to be flat. If you want to know the truth in medium-duty throughout the year, that would be about where I would think our medium-duty, so that's strong. Like you said, we've had strong results I expect from rainstorm. Is there a lot more to get this year there? I don't think.

I don't see it right now, but you know, because we've caught up with that pent-up demand that was created by medium duty not being the focus but Class 8 being the focus of the supply side. But the supply side's caught up so medium duty's caught up. So. But there's still, you know, there's a little demand out there. It's just you don't have these pent-up big backlogs like you used to have. So I hope that sheds a little color on it. So I'm just, personally I'm thinking it's going to be probably flat, I think, you know, both sides. But I do expect to be somewhat backloaded. Okay? Especially in 8. I'm not sure about medium.

I can say that for sure, you know, but I for sure on the backlog in the back half, you know, back to the eight, that's what we talked about. Ramp up, quiet, hopefully ramping up throughout the back half of the year and medium duty probably pretty cautious for the year, but looking at a flat year-over-year.

Okay, great. Thanks for the-

Yeah, you're welcome.

Go ahead, Rusty. Okay.

No, I mean, as I said and I'd like to. I'll talk about it in a minute. Right. There's another call. I'm gonna, I'll ramble on here in a minute about some of the uncertainties and things that are out there that will really dictate the year right now. But I have confidence in the year. But there are things surrounding our environment just like there have been the last 30 days that we're all waiting to get clarity on. So which regulations, tariffs and all that wonderful stuff which you know, can create a little bit of hesitation for folks out there. But I did say, as I mentioned earlier, we're seeing, you know, we're seeing some activity better in the last couple, three weeks in spite of all the non clarity.

It's not real clear to me. I said the uncertainty about emission rules and regs and how things are going to fall out here, which have a very direct correlation on the decisions that the business people make inside their truck businesses.

My voice [crosstalk].

Maybe if I could just ask-

Go ahead.

One quick final one. You've built a lot of cash on the balance sheet in recent quarters. Can you just talk about uses of cash? Rusty, are you seeing anything in the M&A pipeline?

Kind of. What are you seeing there for 2025?

M&A is always my first option to spend money. Right? You know, we have committed for seven, eight years, nine years. We've committed to return 35%, 40% back to shareholders, which we've been doing. Some years might be 50%, some might be 30%. It just depends. You know, we try to be opportunistic in repurchasing. We've been consistently raising our, oh I think our dividend, you know, 8%, 9%, 10% or somewhere in that range. We raise it in second - dividend in the second, in Q2, we take a look at it. Yeah, we're in pretty good shape. You know, for your information, we redid all our credit lines in December and got a five-year run on all that. That has got us set up. If we need, you know, we can pull cash.

We got good cash on the balance sheet and I have great infrastructure to get cash if needed quickly. So we're set up to do M&A. We've got to find it, right. And trust me, that responsibility falls on me. And I probably need to find a couple deals that do work for us. I don't have anything imminent and I wouldn't tell you if I did.

But I mean, I say that, am I always looking, am I talking to other people? You better believe it. But there's nothing huge. There's some small deals. You know, we added a store up in Nebraska, a couple stores in Nebraska back in the summer. Really haven't added anything but greenfield since a couple little greenfield places. But yeah, I'm always in conversations. But as I said, even if it was imminent, I probably wouldn't tell you. So that is the first choice of cash and then the second choice is to return to shareholders. We didn't repurchase as much last year as we did the prior year. But understand our approval is we approved it on the 1st of December. So when I look at what we repurchased last year, I throw in a $65 million repurchase that we had in December of 2023.

Really after that prior, you know, when we approved, we approved a new $150 million every 1st of December. So we are repurchasing currently every day we do a 10b-5. So you know, we repurchase, do it quite very consistently all the time right now. So I would expect our repurchase, unless I spend it on M&A, will be more than the calendar year 2024. It should probably end up being more. I'm pretty sure I know it will in 2025 because we still believe, you know, outside giving you any shareholders a dividend, but repurchasing our stock, it is a clear, you know, direction from management and the belief in this organization. And we've shown that throughout the last eight or nine years consistently doing it.

And we will consistently do it and continue because I still believe we're a great value and we've got a lot in front of us. And there you go, there's your cash answer.

Okay, great. Thanks for all the time this morning, Rusty. I'll pass it on.

You bet.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment for our next question.

Rusty Rush (Chairman of the Board, CEO, and President)

Well?

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from the line of Avi Jaroslawicz of UBS. Your line is now open.

Avi Jaroslawicz (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, good morning.

Rusty Rush (Chairman of the Board, CEO, and President)

Good morning.

Avi Jaroslawicz (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Sounds like you're interested in talking about some of the policy uncertainties. So interested in unpacking some of that. So starting with the emissions regulations and the engine changeover, you know, what are the latest, like, conversations with customers looking like around the pre-buy? You hearing any more uncertainty or less?

Rusty Rush (Chairman of the Board, CEO, and President)

Yeah, well, I mean, you know, it's interesting, right, because, you know, you got to know a map, right? When you go someplace and you're going into unknown territories, it's always good to have a map where you're going. We thought we had a very clear map as to where things were headed. As clear as mud is anyway, as to what, you know, what was going to happen and what happened in 2024 in California, what was going to happen in 2027. The new and I'm not going to take out. I'm going to speak like I'm a customer because I am a customer. Okay? I'm the middle guy. I am a customer also. So clarity. Not right now.

If you look back in the last, oh, back prior to the new administration coming on, ACF or what, Clean Trucks, that was for our customer base where they were going to have to roll in electric, you know, BEV trucks and stuff over a time period that was thrown out. Okay. Right now as of last Friday for Valentine's Day, the EPA is challenging ACT or Clean Truck, which affects all the OEMs, which is how they're going to have to sell this many electric and do this much. You know, all these rules and regs. I'm not going to get into all the detail or I got a lot of people, I got three or four people on my staff that are way more intelligent about it than I am. I know just enough to be dangerous. Okay?

So that is up in the air because it got approved outside of Congress. They're saying it should have been approved in Congress, so they're taking it to Congress. Now, how it all sorts itself out, that's the new administration, which is obviously totally different than the prior administration, okay? They're promoting, you know, big promoters. Meanwhile, still, we understand there's an environmental issue, but, you know, they're staying with, you know, with carbon fuels for longer. Right?

While we still work on the technology piece, which in truth is the right thing, so I don't know how it's going to shake out. I don't expect the diesel emissions regs that are in place to go into place in 2027 to change. I think it could, it could line up. You know, you had a 0.2 and a 0.35. I personally think I could be wrong. They'll probably end up settling, and this is just my personal opinion, and then going, you know, lining it at 0.35. Well, that's still. You got to clean it up more. Okay, remember, we're just talking about diesel. It's still diesel. We're taking the BEV piece and taking the electric piece and pushing it out. That's what's going to happen.

And taking some of your greenhouse gas stuff and which is tied to the BEV in 2030 and all these other years, I expect all that to get stretched out. That's my opinion. Okay. I do expect the new rules and regs around diesel to stay. Now, are they going to stay in the same context the way they're written now where you've got these huge long warranties on aftertreatment that have never existed? They take up a lot of the cost. You know, you're talking. Nobody's really given a price. They're like all manufactured, all manufacturers wait and then surprise you. But, you know, we're talking about $15,000, $20,000. And you know, with aftertreatment now, a lot of that is around is written in because of the warranties. Could those, could those change?

I hear rumors all the time that they might, you know, that they might change a lot of that cost. So that would change some of the costing of it. I don't know that it will or it won't. But all those types of issues are what are going to be vetted here pretty quickly. We are still. Look, we've been cleaning diesel up for a long time. I mean, go back to 1988. 60, 60 trucks today produce, what, one truck produced back then when it comes to NOx and things like that, that's a crazy number to me. We cleaned it up in 2004. We cleaned it up in 2007. We cleaned it up in 2010. So we're going to clean it up again. I don't. But we're going to slow down.

What those numbers turn out to be, what those warranties, I can't tell you yet because, you know, that was Friday. It was Happy Valentine's Day. They just announced, the EPA that they're going to try to run this all back through Congress. And I - but the OEMs have spent way too much money on this aftertreatment stuff, preparing for this. I don't see it going away. That's just my. All we're doing is cleaning up diesel, man. We've done it a lot, done it for decades. Okay? So there's nothing - that's the right thing to do. The right thing to do is to do that, push out some of these BEV requirements because they're way ahead. I mean, look, we got a hundred. I'm sorry, I'm just talking plain. We got 120 years. 120 years of infrastructure around internal combustion and we're going to change it in six, seven years. Give me a break.

Okay, we don't have a grid. We don't have the infrastructure. There are so many. Is it the right thing probably to do long term? Yes. But also doing it with automotive is different than trucks. Trucks do so many different applications. You know what a car does? I don't care if it's a Kia, Ferrari. It goes from point A to point B. Okay?

That's what a car does. Trucks, I don't care if they're picking up garbage, pouring concrete, hanging signs in the oil field over-the-road. They do so many different applications that I expect it to be a multi-prong answer when we get there. But it doesn't get done in this short period of time. So, you know, there you get Rusty's grappling on about his own thoughts. We'll get it done in 20 years. We'll get- BEV will be more. BEV will be for a lot of applications, you know, around town and this, that and the other. But we don't have the necessary components. I mean, you know, I use this in my simple way. Some people think it's like plugging in a hairdryer. Let me tell you something, it's not okay. It's way more complicated than that.

Because of the grid of an infrastructure and everything else, we can't even catch up on the cars. Right? And automobiles will be way easier to do than trucks because of all the different applications. So you're getting a long rambling answer, as I always say. But I expect we're going to go through with the diesel changes. They could tweak them, but we could tweak the warranties. But we're not going to change flipping the diesel switch again in 2027 because there's been too much spent, too much prepped. We will go through in some form or fashion. But what will happen is the other stuff will get pushed out to give.

To give our industries time to refine the technology and the things that are needed to do it properly. Okay? We're not there, man. And to do all that we were trying to do.

I understand we got to do a better job cleaning the environment up, but we got to do it within the bounds of reality. There's the answer. I think there'll be a pre-buy. I don't know how it all shake out to how much, because anytime you come with new aftertreatment and stuff, boy do I remember 2010, okay? Everything was all this DPF, clogged everywhere, et cetera, et cetera. I'm not saying that that'll be the case, but I'm saying there always is issues. We'll be dealing with issues with all the new diesel technology, which is typical. Okay. When you do things like this, that's how it works. But it's something we could work on and do something we've got 100-plus years dealing with. Right? So we'll figure all that while behind the scenes we do the right things to get into these other technologies.

You know, whether it is or not, everything's going to be electric and hydrogen and fuel cell and all this other, while that continues to progress and then, you know, it'll take its place over the next 20 years.

Avi Jaroslawicz (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

That makes sense to me and I appreciate the perspective there, shifting over to tariffs. So I know you noticed that-

Rusty Rush (Chairman of the Board, CEO, and President)

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Avi Jaroslawicz (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

You know, the uncertainty around that and, you know, the prospect that it could really increase the price of trucks and squeeze demand. So I guess two things there, one, just, could you help frame for us what that impact be on the cost of a new truck and also, you know, with the certainty, are you doing anything differently this year in terms of managing your inventory to try to mitigate that risk?

Rusty Rush (Chairman of the Board, CEO, and President)

First off, about 17 days ago, maybe 18 on a Saturday, I'm going, are you kidding me? Okay, we're really going to put 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. I understand the Chinese part, but the automotive sector, and I'm not just talking trucks, there is nothing more tied to Mexico than the automotive sector, okay? I mean, all the suppliers, all the manufacturers, everybody's got plants down there and stuff. It's like, you gotta be kidding me. You know, I understand, you know, I don't understand fentanyl, but I read about it and I understand immigration issues, but you're messing with an economy now. Let me tell you.

You know, you're talking, if it's manufactured down there, you're talking $30,000, $40,000 in a truck. And even if trucks that are manufactured in the U.S. they'll have components from in them. If you put a 25% tariff on there, that'd probably be another $10,000. Automobiles will be $6,000, $8,000, depending on who and where and what. I mean, it's always, remember, the devil's in the details in the fine print, right? So I'm not the expert on all of that, but I gotta tell you, that makes absolutely zero sense to me. I believe I've told everybody since, you know, new administration was announced back in November that, you know, it's a negotiation. I cannot believe that we would go do that. Look, those factories, it's not like China. Those are our factories. I'm on the border. I've been on the border. I'm born and raised in Texas, okay?

I have the whole border for Peterbilt, all the way from Tijuana to Brownsville. I understand we built those maquiladora plants back in the 1980s, okay? They're our stuff. And more and more and more, I do not see doing that. I just truly can't see. We own them. It's not like stuff you buy from China. We own those factories, okay? It just makes absolutely zero sense to me. We need a strong, you know, solid neighbor on the south. And it's just a labor.

We build all that stuff down there, but it's all our stuff, man. So it really doesn't make any sense to me. Would there be disruption? Yes. Is there something I can do? Well, first, somebody tell me a date. I got two weeks, okay? No, I can't do anything in two weeks. We would just deal with it. But you talk about crippling industry. You got to realize, like Laredo, Texas, that's the biggest port in the United States. I don't care about these ocean ports. There's more freight coming through out of Mexico than I'm on I-35. I look out my window right now. Over half the vehicles are trucks going up and down the highway, okay, and it's all, you know, from manufacturing that goes on in the south.

You know, I don't know, but we'd come up with a workforce to do it all anyway as we work our way through it. You know, I'm getting into my own personal views here about all that. You're going to know, because I don't mind telling them so. It just makes no sense to me. I've got to believe it's saber rattling in negotiations. Maybe there will be some hand slaps and things like that on the wrist or something. I'm not close enough to the government to really know what they're thinking.

But I don't see doing that with your two bordering neighbors. One to the north and one to the south. The only ones you border. Okay? I don't - I have a hard time making sense out of that personally, especially when we built it all. Okay? So I mean we drove all that ourselves.

Wasn't driven by over, you know, did people have plans? Yeah, OEMs have contingency plans around how they would get around it. But it would be costly and it would be cumbersome to implement and take time. But sure they do. You know, OEMs are thinking about it. They have to. I have to. Yes, I thought about it. But I have a hard time believing we're really going to do this with Mexico and Canada. That's just my opinion. I could be dead ass wrong, excuse me, dead wrong.

But, you know, don't worry, we've thought about it. We're behind the scenes. Yes. There are plans as to what we would do, how we would react. I just have a hard time believing we're going to do it.

Avi Jaroslawicz (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

That makes sense. I guess moving a little bit away from the uncertainty up towards what we're seeing today. So I know second half last year there was a bit of discounting on new truck pricing and so just wondering if that's something that we should be expecting here for first half of 2025 as well?

Rusty Rush (Chairman of the Board, CEO, and President)

No, I expect most of the stuff that we're doing right now is pretty flat. Slight timing, slightly maybe increase. I don't see a lot of discounting, maybe a one-off deal here or there but there's not broad-based discounting going on. I mean we'd already taken margin out last year. Okay. Somewhere when I say that, you know, the manufacturers and through us and we've managed to maintain a good blended margin. That's why I always tell folks, remember we don't sell just heavy-duty, we sell medium, we sell used. So we've done that pretty good job. Keep it over 9% or better blended margin. So was new compressed a little bit? Yes. Do I see it getting compressed a whole lot more? No, I think we'll be pretty, you know, we've already been, you know, a little bit compressed on it.

So, I don't. I think most OEMs. Well, we've been planning on having a pre-buy. Right. So you know, they were trying to maintain what they felt. Their margins are awesome.

You can look at it later in the back half of last year. There's no question. But I don't know how much more there is to take out of that. I think there'll be enough demand to keep things pretty flat, to be honest with you, without getting any increases in anything. You know, either. I don't. I expected everything to stay pretty flat.

Avi Jaroslawicz (Director and Equity Research Analyst)

All right.

Very helpful.

That's it for me. Appreciate the time. Thank you.

Rusty Rush (Chairman of the Board, CEO, and President)

You bet. Thank you, sir.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn it back to Rusty Rush for closing remarks.

Rusty Rush (Chairman of the Board, CEO, and President)

Okay. I guess I look forward to talking to everybody in April. This is the shortest time between calls. I'm about to talk to everybody in about two months. And thank you for your participation today.

Operator (participant)

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.