Rayonier Advanced Materials - Q4 2022

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning. Welcome to the RYAM fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings conference call. During today's presentation, all parties will be in listen-only mode. Following the presentation, the conference will be open for questions with instructions to follow at that time. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the call over to your host, Mr. Mickey Walsh, Treasurer and Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, Mr. Walsh. You may now begin.

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome again to RYAM's fourth quarter and full year 2022 earnings conference call and webcast. Joining me on today's call are De Lyle Bloomquist, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Marcus Moeltner, our Chief Financial Officer and Senior Vice President of Finance. Our earnings release and presentation materials were issued last evening and are available on our new website at ryam.com. I'd like to remind you that in today's presentation, we will include forward-looking statements made pursuant to the safe harbor provisions of federal securities laws. Our earnings release, as well as our filings with the SEC, lists some of the factors which may cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements we may make. They are also referenced on slides two and three of our presentation material.

Today's presentation will also reference certain non-GAAP financial measures, as noted on slide four of our presentation. We believe non-GAAP financial measures provide useful information for management and investors. Non-GAAP measures should not be considered an alternative to GAAP measures. A reconciliation of these measures to their most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are included on slides 18 through 27 of our presentation. I'd now like to turn the call over to De Lyle.

De Lyle Bloomquist (President and CEO)

Thank you, Mickey. Good morning. I will start today with financial highlights for 2022 before turning the call to Marcus to provide additional details on each of our businesses. After Marcus's update, I will provide an outlook and guidance for 2023 before opening up the call for questions. Let's start by turning to slide five. We finished 2022 with positive momentum on revenue and EBITDA. Revenues increased $309 million, or 22% from prior year, to $1.7 billion, driven by strong demand and prices across all of our products, including Cellulose Specialties, which represent half of our revenue and a significant majority of our EBITDA. Adjusted EBITDA for the year increased $50 million, or 39% to $177 million, as the price increases re-realized more than offset extraordinary cost inflation.

The increases from prior year were led by our High-Purity Cellulose segment, which delivered $150 million of adjusted EBITDA, up $11 million or nearly 8% from the prior year. Paperboard delivered a solid $53 million of EBITDA, up $25 million or 89%, driven by strong demand for sustainable packaging and higher prices. High-Yield Pulp contributed an additional $19 million of EBITDA as we took advantage of high prices in the fourth quarter to capture significant value for this segment. Corporate expenses improved $5 million from last year to $45 million for the full year, driven by a change in the valuation of the GreenFirst shares and favorable currency impact, which were partially offset by higher variable compensation.

Now I'd like to ask Marcus to take us through the financial details for 2022 before I provide an outlook for 2023.

Marcus Moeltner (CFO and SVP of Finance)

Thank you, De Lyle.Starting with the High-Purity Cellulose segment on slide six, sales for the year increased $245 million, or 22% to $1.3 billion, driven by a 19% increase in sales prices for both CS and non-CS products. Sales volumes increased 4% to 918,000 metric tons, driven by improved reliability and logistics. As expected, sales volumes in the fourth quarter of 2022 were 11% higher compared to the same period in 2021, driven by a greater mix of commodity products, which led to a 5% lower average selling price in the current quarter as compared to the third quarter of 2022. Net sales for the year included $115 million of Biomaterial sales, primarily from biomass energy and lignin.

Overall, EBITDA for the segment improved $11 million to $150 million, driven by higher prices and sales volumes, partially offset by the impact of significant cost inflation. Turning to Slide seven. Paperboard segment sales grew $42 million, driven by a 27% increase in sales prices, partially offset by a 6% decline in sales volumes. EBITDA for this segment grew 89% or $25 million to $53 million, as higher sales prices more than offset increased costs for purchased pulp, chemicals, logistics, and the impact of lower sales volumes. The slight decline in sales price in the fourth quarter from the third quarter was driven by a weaker sales mix. Turning to the High-Yield Pulp segment on Slide eight, sales increased by $24 million from prior year, driven by a 25% increase in sales prices, partially offset by a 3% decline in sales volumes.

Sales volumes for the year were impacted by logistics and timing. As sales prices rose in the fourth quarter amid strong demand, we were able to increase volumes to deliver a strong quarter to finish the year. Overall, EBITDA for the segment improved $9 million-$19 million for the year, including $13 million in the fourth quarter. Turning to Slide nine. On a consolidated basis, 2022 operating income improved $36 million from 2021 to $26 million. Sales price improvements across each segment and volume improvements in HPC, driven by strong demand for CS, more than offset $258 million of higher costs driven by persistent inflation throughout the year. SG&A and other expenses increased $12 million, primarily driven by higher severance and variable stock compensation, partially offset by favorable FX rates. Turning to Slide 10.

Net debt declined $41 million in the quarter to $707 million as we continue to repay debt. The company reduced gross debt by $73 million in 2022, while still preserving solid liquidity. Liquidity ended the year at $301 million, including $152 million of cash. In addition to debt repayments, capital allocation in 2022 focused on increased maintenance CapEx to improve reliability after investments were reduced through the pandemic years. We also invested $34 million on strategic capital, primarily focused on high return projects, which will provide immediate benefits to the business. Net debt to EBITDA ended the year at 4x, an improvement of nearly a turn and a half from 2021.

With lower debt and improving credit metrics, we continue to monitor capital markets and are prepared to opportunistically refinance our 5.5% senior unsecured notes, which mature in June of 2024. With that, I'd like to turn the call back over to De Lyle.

De Lyle Bloomquist (President and CEO)

Thank you, Marcus. Turning to Slide 11. Our top priority for 2023 is to opportunistically refinance our senior notes, which mature in June 2024. As Marcus noted, our leverage declined to 4x at the end of 2022, we expect it to further decline to 3.5x by the end of the first quarter. This will position us as well to refinance our debt at more attractive terms than we saw earlier this year. Building on the momentum experienced in 2022, we will continue growing our EBITDA in 2023 through two key areas. First, we have started to realize the benefits from our investments to improve reliability, including increased sales and lower unit fixed cost. Currently, we are experiencing some pockets of softness in demand. As a market leader, we are matching our production to meet market demand.

While this may temporarily impact sales volumes, the improvement in reliability will allow us to better control our cost. Second, we are capturing a higher value for our products. As a result of our negotiations, our 2023 Cellulose Specialties prices are expected to increase by a high single digits percentage versus 2022 levels, inclusive of the cost surcharge. We also continue to capture value for our Fluff and Paperboard businesses as demand for sustainable solutions in these markets remain high. The new capacity that came into the Viscose market in 2021 and 2022 impacted Viscose pricing modestly in the fourth quarter of 2022. Given our minimal exposure to this market, we have not experienced a significant impact.

The improved EBITDA for 2023 will convert to significantly improved free cash flow, which we forecast will be between $30 million and $60 million. Capital allocation of this free cash flow will be prioritized towards debt reduction and investments in high return strategic capital projects, which I will discuss in detail shortly. Our free cash flow guidance assumes a $45 million benefit from working cash capital in 2023, which we intend to capture by achieving specific targets for inventory, receivable, and payables. We also assume 2023 total CapEx to be in the range of $140 million-$145 million. This includes $15 million-$20 million of catch-up maintenance capital, which was deferred during the pandemic, and $30 million-$35 million of discretionary strategic capital, net of financing.

On Slide 12, we graphically depict how our $200 million-$215 million of adjusted EBITDA guidance converts to free cash flow and supports our capital allocation decisions to either repay debt and/or invest in attractive strategic projects. Our capital allocation decisions will be based on available cash, debt repayment commitments, and specific project returns. On page 13, we summarize our key financial objectives and criteria for strategic projects. Our long-term net leverage target remains at 2.5x EBITDA, which we plan to attain by growing EBITDA and repaying debt. We also expect to allocate capital into attractive and high return strategic projects. We have three main criteria that we use to vet strategic projects. First, the payback period should be less than three years.

Second, the return on equity needs to exceed 20%, though this hurdle rate may be increased depending on the risk associated with the project. To increase a strategic project's ROE, we look for low cost financing options, including low cost loans and grants. Three, we review each project for the impact it would have on our sustainability commitments, including improving the safety for our employees and the impact to our planet, specifically lowering our greenhouse gas emissions. For 2023, our strategic capital investments will be focused in four key areas. We have previously discussed the Tartas bioethanol project. This is an investment in a world-class fermentation plant that will be initially purposed to produce second-generation bioethanol, which will be sold to a large petrochemical company under a multi-year take-or-pay contract.

This RED 2 certified bioethanol will be used in automobiles to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and substitute for traditional ethanol produced from food sources, such as corn. The total investment for this project is $39 million, with $28 million financed by low-cost green loans and $4 million of grants. The bulk of the spending will be in 2023. The total cash investment from RYAM for this project from 2022 through 2024 is expected to be $7 million and will provide an annual EBITDA benefit of $9 million-$11 million starting in early 2024. This project has already broken ground and is expected to be completed early next year. The second large project will be debottlenecking Jesup's fluff production and finishing capabilities.

10 of the $14 million investment was made last year, with the remainder being made in 2023. This investment will provide a $7 million annualized benefit to the company starting later this year. We're also focusing investments on production automation and other high investment return projects. This includes a number of smaller investments totaling between $6 million-$11 million that will provide very high returns on investment and an expected $5 million-$7 million in annualized EBITDA. Lastly, we will continue investing in our business processes and data infrastructure to increase corporate efficiencies and effectiveness. In 2022, we started the process to get all of the facilities and key processes onto a common ERP platform. Next, I will provide an outlook on each of our businesses.

Turning to page 14, as a result of our negotiations, our 2023 Cellulose Specialties prices are expected to increase by high single-digit percentages versus 2022. 2023 demand for our High-Purity business is currently forecasted to be mixed. We are seeing strength in acetate, casings, filtration, and nitrocellulose, while there's softness for construction ethers, food additives in MCC, and tire cord. Fluff demand remains resilient. While Fluff prices have fallen off their peak levels experienced in the fourth quarter of 2022, pricing has been slower to decline than the more commoditized pulp markets. Viscose demand started the year soft, but there are signs of improvement since the end of the Chinese New Year. Our customers, which are the viscose staple fiber producers, have increased their operating rates back to the 80% range, which is up from 50% at the end of 2022.

Cost inflation in our High-Purity segment has slowed, but our input prices are expected to remain at elevated levels for the near term. As I noted, High-Purity business will realize some uplift in 2023 and future EBITDA from the investment in strategic projects. Our Biomaterials business will benefit from our strategic investments that are focused on the increasing demand for sustainable products, starting with our investment in the fermentation plant at Tartas that will initially produce RED 2 certified bioethanol starting in 2024. As demand for sustainable products continues to grow, we will increase our capabilities to meet this global demand. In Paperboard, prices are expected to increase from 2022 levels, driven by strong demand for packaging and commercial print products. Volumes are expected to increase as a result of improved productivity and logistics, while costs are expected to improve as pulp prices decline.

In High-Yield Pulp, prices are expected to decline as the global economy slows. Sales volumes are expected to improve with improved logistics and productivity.A reopening of the Chinese economy may provide a catalyst for improved pricing later this year. Corporate expenses are expected to be higher than 2022 due to expenses associated with the ERP implementation and FX benefits that are not expected to repeat in 2023. Overall, we expect to deliver $200 million-$215 million of EBITDA in 2023, an increase of 13%-21% over prior year. On slide 15, we highlight the key sensitivities that can impact our EBITDA guidance. EBITDA is highly leveraged to our Cellulose Specialties prices. However, these prices are mostly negotiated on an annual basis.

In addition, we successfully negotiated pricing flexibility in our Cellulose Specialties contracts in the event of renewed cost inflation. We believe that pricing and cost risk in our Cellulose Specialties business should have little impact on the 2023 guidance. Pricing changes on non-Cellulose Specialties products have a smaller impact on EBITDA for the same 1% change in price. Paperboard products are sold under a mix of fixed prices and variable index pricing, with approximately 2/3 fixed for the year, thus providing further stability for the 2023 guidance. We believe our diverse exposure to end markets and strong linkage to the sustainability megatrends such as Paperboard for renewable packaging and Fluff for the growing global middle class and aging populations, coupled with our annual contracted business help insulate us from the impact of a possible recession.

We also have opportunities to improve margins with improved productivity and sales volumes, which we would realize as we maintain our market share when demand growth resumes. Turning to slide 16, our outlook for 2023 reflects improved EBITDA margins to the 11%-12% range as we capture both the improved value for our products and drive operational efficiencies and reliability. Debt will continue to decline as we generate free cash flow and optimize our balance sheet. As a result, we expect net leverage to decline to approximately 3.5x in 2023 and keep us on track toward our goal of 2.5x over the next three to five years. With that, operator, please open the call to questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question and answer session. If you'd like to ask a question today, please press star one from your telephone keypad and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you'd like to withdraw your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment please, while we poll for questions. Once again, it's star one. Thank you. Thank you. Our first question is from the line of Roger Spitz with Bank of America. Please proceed with your questions.

Roger Spitz (Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you and good morning. Wanted to start, could you elaborate on the potential headwinds in Q1 2023? You mentioned, I think in the prepared remarks, some pockets of softer demand and may have actually called out one or two areas, but I thought maybe you could delve into a little more. Also, what do you expect the cadence of the working capital inflow over the year, in particular, in Q1?

De Lyle Bloomquist (President and CEO)

Hey, Roger Spitz, this is De Lyle. To attack your question on demand first, what we're seeing, I'll first talk a little bit about what's going on in Europe, which is really what's affecting our demand for our construction ethers and maybe a little bit of the food additive business on the MCC side. I think as everybody knows, the macroeconomic conditions in Europe aren't great, we do expect that they will improve through the year. Because we're seeing higher interest rates in Europe, that's obviously had an impact on the construction market, and that's therefore had an impact on our demand for our construction ethers.

We also saw with a couple of customers that we sell our ether-grade products to, that they are correcting their working capital, they may have overbought a little bit in 2022, and so they're going through a correction on their working capital. Again, I think that's gonna be relatively short term issue. We should see, again, once they get past that correction, we should start seeing demand normalize again, probably in the second half of this year. With respect to the other areas in terms of softness, the... Can you help me on that a little bit?

Marcus Moeltner (CFO and SVP of Finance)

Yeah, areas of softness. We had a little bit in tire cord as well.

De Lyle Bloomquist (President and CEO)

Yeah. Tire cord obviously is tied to the automobile industry. Obviously they continue to be a little thwarted by you know, the access to chips. Also I think just because the increase in interest rates is beginning to dampen the demand for automobiles as well. That's something that we're a little concerned about. Otherwise, you know, a lot of the other businesses that we are selling to seem to be holding in there at I would call very resilient levels of demand. The second question.

Roger Spitz (Equity Research Analyst)

Got it.

De Lyle Bloomquist (President and CEO)

Yeah, the second question was on working capital. I think really your question was around how is that gonna calendarize through the year? Is that correct, Roger?

Roger Spitz (Equity Research Analyst)

That's right. particularly to Q1, because Q1 is usually for most businesses an outflow, but things are going on here. So it's both particularly in Q1, but also how does the cadence go to getting that $45 million?

Marcus Moeltner (CFO and SVP of Finance)

Good morning, Roger, it's Marcus. As you mentioned, of the, you know, the 45 that we set out as an objective, certainly Q1 is a use of working capital for us. You know, as we get through Q1 and then the balance of the year, we should start to realize that. Over 50% of that target is inventory related, and then it's balanced across AR and AP. As we execute through the year, we should start to harvest that working capital and realize that benefit.

Roger Spitz (Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you. I'll get back in queue. That's on our set of questions.

De Lyle Bloomquist (President and CEO)

Thank you, Roger.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As a reminder, you may press star one to ask a question at this time. The next question comes from the line of Paul Quinn with RBC Capital Markets. Please receive your questions.

Paul Quinn (Director of Paper and Forest Products)

Thanks very much. Morning, guys. just trying to understand, it sounds like your Cellulose Specialties prices, you expected them to be up high single-digit. just looking at the commodity side, though, I'm trying to understand, sort of your guidance, I guess, on Fluff pulp. Do you expect Fluff pulp to stay in, and Viscose price weakening? Could you give us a little bit more color on what you're seeing in that market?

De Lyle Bloomquist (President and CEO)

Hi, Paul, this is De Lyle. With respect to Fluff pricing, again, we're assuming that they're gonna follow generally with the indices that are out there on Fluff. What we're noticing is that it's going down slower than expected. And in fact, we've seen a couple of our competitors actually announce some recent price increases. We think we may actually be dropping out here relatively soon. Viscose pricing, similar situation. Just as recently as a couple of days ago, there was a slight uptick in the pricing for softwood going into the Viscose market.

Again, you know, what we're, what we're forecasting is per the indices. We're seeing that because of the increase in capacity utilization in China, that again, that there may be some upside potential with respect to viscose pricing. Right now, the forecast and the guidance we've given is essentially based on the indices that have been published.

Paul Quinn (Director of Paper and Forest Products)

Okay. You guys mentioned higher corporate costs in 2023 here. That was $45 million in 2022. Are we talking somewhere in the $50 million-$55 million range?

De Lyle Bloomquist (President and CEO)

Yeah. Yeah, that's correct, Paul. That's about the right range. Again, the increase in spending is tied to the ERP implementation and the fact that we don't think... Right now we're not forecasting we're gonna get any FX benefit this year.

Paul Quinn (Director of Paper and Forest Products)

Okay. Then just earlier this year, you attempted to refi the senior unsecureds and didn't conclude that deal. Can you give us a little bit more color on that process and the timing of when you expect that to try that again?

De Lyle Bloomquist (President and CEO)

Well, you know, in January, just it turned out that the market conditions just weren't conducive for us to get a deal that we felt was one indicative of what we consider to be a fairly strong business. Looking forward, we think actually time is on our side, in that we think our financial metrics will improve with time. We're patient. We wanna get past at least the Q1 earnings, 'cause again, we think that'll confirm the guidance we just gave you. With that, we think it's, you know, we'll be looking at that point to look at the markets and possibly enter at that point.

Paul Quinn (Director of Paper and Forest Products)

Okay. Then just lastly, just back on this debottlenecking project you've got at Jesup to get more volume, I guess, on the Fluff line, what's the volume increase you think you're gonna get, you know, through that process? What's involved?

De Lyle Bloomquist (President and CEO)

That's a great question. I'm not an engineer, so I can't really get into the specifics about what we did. At the end of the day, I believe the increase is 40,000-50,000 tons additional capacity that we get from that investment. It really came down to essentially putting in additional dryer cans to allow us to speed up the line while, you know, allowing it for enough drying capacity to get the right specifications on the product. On the finishing side, when you obviously speed up the capability of the line, you've got to also increase the capability of the.

Our ability to package it appropriately for our competitors or for our, for our customers. We've put some investment also in the finishing line as well.

Paul Quinn (Director of Paper and Forest Products)

All right. Thanks very much. That's all I had. Good luck.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is a follow-up from the line of Roger Spitz with Bank of America. Please just use your question.

Roger Spitz (Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you very much, a few others. Can you talk any more guidance on the High-Yield Pulp segment in 2023? Does that reverse back to the last few years kind of level? How should we think about that?

De Lyle Bloomquist (President and CEO)

That's a great question, Roger. It's obviously. We're seeing pricing decline right now, but we're gonna see some offset on that, on the volumes in 2023, given the increased productivity that we're expecting after the investments we made last year. In terms of overall EBITDA for high purity, we're expecting it. I'm looking at some numbers. I'm gonna see if I can find the actual number for you here. It's gonna be about the same as we experienced in 2022 versus 2023, even though we see lower pricing, but it should be offset by the increased productivity and the increased sales volumes later this year.

Roger Spitz (Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. Just to be clear, I was asking on high-yield pulp, and I think you were answering that, but you said High Purity.

De Lyle Bloomquist (President and CEO)

I'm sorry. I meant High-Purity. Yeah, High-Purity. I'm still new.

Roger Spitz (Equity Research Analyst)

High-Purity. Oh, okay. I was asking on High-Yield Pulp. How do you see High-Yield Pulp EBITDA in 2023 where you lower pricing-

De Lyle Bloomquist (President and CEO)

That's, and that's what I was talking to you. High-Yield Pulp should be equivalent to what we saw in 2022, right around that $15 million level, $16 million level.

Marcus Moeltner (CFO and SVP of Finance)

Yeah. Roger, as you're following the market, High-Yield Pulp, think of if you look at it year-over-year, right? Given where we are in the pricing cycle, it'll probably be the reverse of last year, where it's a stronger first half, and then everybody's seeing pricing's coming off over time for that product.

Roger Spitz (Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. In the press release, you talked about the strength in acetate CS. Are you looking at the filtered tow there or you're looking at the whatever it is, 20-25% of the specialty I call especially acetate CS, the non-filtered tow demand that you were pointing to?

De Lyle Bloomquist (President and CEO)

Roger, just to reiterate your question, you're saying are we seeing strength in acetate in the tow and other applications, right? Plastics, you're saying.

Roger Spitz (Equity Research Analyst)

Right. Which areas, which applications in acetate CS, did the press release refer to when it talked about strength in 2023 in acetate?

De Lyle Bloomquist (President and CEO)

Really we're seeing it both in tow and plastics. You know, tow is being driven. We're seeing significant growth in the Heat not Burn applications, in products that are being sold outside the United States, which require 2x the amount of tow that is used in a typical cigarette. That's, I think largely mitigated, you know, the decline in smoking in much of the developed world. I would say that, you know, tow applications or the use, like, demand in China has been pretty darn steady. On the plastic side, things continue to be very strong.

Roger Spitz (Equity Research Analyst)

Right. Last one, I wanna talk about the three to five year target, EBITDA margin going to 13%-15%. You laid out on slide, I guess 13, a number of projects. I presume that's one or one component of that. Is that the main component of that increase in the EBITDA margin or are there other big picture things, whether it be pricing or volumes or cost savings that you're also looking to get, you know, that EBITDA margin up to 13%-15% in three to five years?

De Lyle Bloomquist (President and CEO)

I'm gonna use all the levers, Roger. it's not gonna just be, you know, the strategic projects, which at the end of the day is an important component of it. We see there's significant value to be had in terms of becoming much more efficient and productive. some of that's gonna take some capital. we also see that there's an opportunity to continue to capture additional value for our products. I call it fair value, get the pricing up to a point that would reward us to reinvest into new capacity as demand grows. finally, you know, the issues around just better efficiencies on logistics and maybe even some cost deflation sometime in the near future.

Roger Spitz (Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. At this time, we've reached the end of our question and answer session. I'll turn the floor back to De Lyle Bloomquist for closing remarks.

De Lyle Bloomquist (President and CEO)

Well, again, thank you all for your time today. You know, I'm very proud of the accomplishments that we have made and very confident that we will continue to execute on our initiatives to improve the profitability of the business, reduce our debt and improve our leverage. I look forward to our next update in the next couple of months. If you have any questions, or anything that we can help you out with, please feel free to reach out to us.

Operator (participant)

This will conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines at this time.