Executive Summary

Q4 2024 delivered continued top-line growth with total revenue of $286.7M and net earned premiums of $269.1M, while GAAP diluted EPS was $0.55 and non-GAAP operating EPS was $0.94 . Loss ratio and expense ratio improved year over year (71.7% and 30.2% vs. 76.1% and 30.4%), bringing the combined ratio down to 101.9% from 106.5% .
Full-year direct written premiums surpassed $1.0B for the first time, driven by 8.5% policy count growth and 10.9% average premium per policy increase; management highlighted year-over-year combined ratio improvement to 101.1% (from 107.7%) and book value per share growth of 8.4% .
Favorable prior-year development remained a tailwind (Q4: $13.0M vs. $12.4M prior-year Q4), including impacts from the Massachusetts FAIR Plan restructuring ($10.1M of development recognized in 2024) .
No formal financial guidance was provided; the Board declared a $0.90 quarterly dividend payable March 14, 2025 (record date March 3, 2025) .
Street consensus for Q4 2024 via S&P Global was unavailable due to retrieval limits; estimate comparison could not be performed (Values retrieved from S&P Global were unavailable).

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Premium growth and underwriting momentum: Direct written premiums rose 18.7% YoY in Q4 to $292.0M, with net earned premiums up 19.0% YoY to $269.1M, supporting ratio improvement (loss ratio 71.7% vs. 76.1% prior-year Q4) .
Structural tailwinds: Favorable prior-year development totaled $13.0M in Q4 (and $51.9M for FY 2024), aided by the FAIR Plan restructuring ($10.1M current and prior-year development recognized in 2024) .
Management tone on growth and loss trends: “Premium rate actions are earning into our results and contributing to improvements in our loss ratios… For the fourth quarter 2024, Safety posted a 101.9% combined ratio compared to 106.5% in the prior year” — George M. Murphy, CEO .

What Went Wrong

Earnings volatility from equity portfolio marks: Q4 included a $10.9M decrease in net unrealized gains on equity securities, compressing GAAP earnings vs. non-GAAP operating results .
Combined ratio remains above 100%: Despite YoY improvement, the Q4 combined ratio was 101.9% (vs. 100.7% in Q3), reflecting ongoing inflationary severity in Private Passenger Auto .
Investment yield softness: Net investment income decreased slightly YoY in Q4 ($14.8M vs. $14.9M), with effective annualized yield at 4.0% vs. 4.2% prior-year Q4, and portfolio duration at 3.5 years (3.6 years prior year) .

Financial Results

Consolidated Performance (Actuals)

Metric	Q4 2023	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)	$258.4	$269.8	$295.3	$286.7
Net Earned Premiums ($USD Millions)	$226.0	$246.9	$258.7	$269.1
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$0.83	$1.13	$1.73	$0.55
Non-GAAP Operating EPS ($)	$0.30	$1.18	$1.10	$0.94
Loss Ratio (%)	76.1%	70.0%	70.6%	71.7%
Expense Ratio (%)	30.4%	29.9%	30.1%	30.2%
Combined Ratio (%)	106.5%	99.9%	100.7%	101.9%

Q4 2024 Actual vs. Consensus

Metric	Q4 2024 Actual	Q4 2024 S&P Global Consensus
Total Revenue ($USD Millions)	$286.7	N/A (Values retrieved from S&P Global unavailable)
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$0.55	N/A (Values retrieved from S&P Global unavailable)
Non-GAAP Operating EPS ($)	$0.94	N/A (Values retrieved from S&P Global unavailable)

Premiums Breakdown

Premiums ($USD Millions)	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Direct Written	$246.1	$318.2	$292.0
Assumed Written	$7.6	$5.1	$(2.6)
Ceded Written	$(27.4)	$(30.7)	$(33.9)
Net Written	$226.4	$292.6	$255.6
Direct Earned	$243.5	$282.9	$302.0
Assumed Earned	$7.3	$4.7	$(2.8)
Ceded Earned	$(24.8)	$(29.0)	$(30.1)
Net Earned	$226.0	$258.7	$269.1

Additional KPIs

KPI	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Prior-Year Favorable Development ($USD Millions)	$12.4	$8.6	$13.0
Net Investment Income ($USD Millions)	$14.9	$12.2	$14.8
Equity Securities Unrealized Gain/(Loss) ($USD Millions)	$9.7	$(9.2)	$(10.9)
Book Value Per Share ($)	$54.37 (FY end)	$57.38	$55.83
Dividend per Share ($)	$0.90	$0.90	$0.90

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Quarterly Dividend per Share ($)	Q1 2025 payment (Mar 14, 2025; record Mar 3, 2025)	$0.90 (prior quarterly level)	$0.90	Maintained
Financial Guidance (Revenue, Margins, OpEx, Tax Rate)	N/A	None provided	None provided	N/A

No formal quantitative forward guidance was provided in Q4 materials; management emphasized ongoing rate actions, policy count growth, and loss ratio improvements but did not issue specific financial targets .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript or other transcripts were available in our document set [List: 0 results for transcripts].

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 2024)	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
Policy Count & Pricing	Exposure count growth across lines; continued rate increases	Ongoing policy count increases; rate actions earning in	8.5% overall policy count growth; 10.9% avg premium per policy YoY for FY; premium actions driving loss ratio improvement	Strengthening
Private Passenger Auto Severity	Inflationary pressure; combined ratio 99.9% aided by FAIR Plan development	Severity above historical averages but moderating; combined ratio 100.7%	Severity moderating; loss ratio down YoY; combined ratio 101.9%	Gradual improvement, still elevated
Regulatory/FAIR Plan	Restructuring drove $9.7M favorable prior-year development; balance sheet recognition	Favorable development related to FAIR Plan $10.1M YTD	$10.1M related development included in 2024; ongoing fair value adjustments to trust investment	Ongoing tailwind and accounting effects
Investment Income/Yield	Q2 NII -0.3M YoY; effective yield 3.9%; duration 3.5 yrs	Q3 NII -1.8M YoY; effective yield 3.4%; duration 3.4 yrs	Q4 NII -0.1M YoY; effective yield 4.0%; duration 3.5 yrs	Stabilizing
Book Value & Capital Return	BVPS $54.61; dividend $0.90	BVPS $57.38; dividend $0.90	BVPS $55.83; dividend declared $0.90 for Mar 2025	Solid capital return; BVPS impacted by markets
Macro/Inflation	Inflation impacting loss severity	Inflationary impacts; moderation noted	Inflation still a driver; moderation aiding ratios	Moderating but persistent

Management Commentary

“For the year ended December 31, 2024, Safety Insurance continued to achieve significant direct written premium growth… driving our top-line revenue above $1 billion dollars for the first time… premium rate actions are earning into our results and contributing to improvements in our loss ratios… For the fourth quarter 2024, Safety posted a 101.9% combined ratio compared to 106.5% in the prior year” — George M. Murphy, Chairman, President & CEO .
“While private passenger automobile loss severity trends remain higher than historical averages, we are seeing moderation during the current quarter. Our combined ratio for the quarter improved to 100.7% from 104.8% in the prior year” — George M. Murphy (Q3 release) .
“We are seeing the financial impact of both ongoing rate increases and growth in policy counts… restructuring of the [FAIR Plan] resulted in favorable prior year development and reduced loss and loss adjustment expenses by $9.7 million” — George M. Murphy (Q2 release) .

Q&A Highlights

No Q4 2024 earnings call transcript was available in our dataset; accordingly, we cannot provide Q&A highlights or clarifications beyond press release commentary [List: 0 results for transcripts].

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus estimates for Q4 2024 (EPS and Revenue) were unavailable due to a retrieval limit; therefore, we could not compare actual results to Street expectations (Values retrieved from S&P Global were unavailable).
Given the YoY improvement in loss and expense ratios and strong premium growth, we would expect Street models to reflect improving underwriting results; however, without consensus figures, we cannot quantify beats/misses.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Trajectory: Underwriting results are improving year over year with combined ratio down to 101.9%, supported by rate actions and policy growth; moderation in Private Passenger Auto severity is a critical driver to watch .
Premium Momentum: Direct written premiums grew 18.7% in Q4 and 20.4% for FY, with double-digit increases in average premium per policy — a supportive backdrop for earned premium growth in 2025 .
Earnings Quality: GAAP earnings remain sensitive to equity marks (Q4 unrealized loss of $10.9M), making non-GAAP operating EPS a useful lens for core performance .
Structural Benefit: FAIR Plan restructuring produced meaningful favorable development and new asset recognition; continued fair value changes to the trust investment may introduce quarter-to-quarter noise .
Capital Return: Dividend maintained at $0.90/quarter; combined with improving book value over the year (+8.4%), supports a constructive total-return profile despite market valuation changes .
Near-term trading lens: Watch subsequent disclosures for loss severity and frequency in Private Passenger Auto, pace of rate earnings, and any changes in prior-year development trends; investment yield and equity marks will influence quarterly EPS variability .
Medium-term thesis: If underwriting improvements persist and inflation pressures continue to moderate, the path to sub-100 combined ratio could be achievable; sustained premium growth in core geographies (MA/NH/ME) remains a key upside lever .

SAFETY INSURANCE GROUP INC (SAFT)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary