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Sage Therapeutics, Inc. (SAGE)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Revenue acceleration: Total revenues reached $31.66M, driven by ZURZUVAE collaboration revenue of $23.21M (+68% q/q) and >4,000 prescriptions shipped (+36% q/q), indicating strengthening commercial execution in PPD .
- Loss narrowed: Net loss improved to $49.65M (EPS -$0.79) from $62.21M (EPS -$1.01) in Q1, as R&D spend remained materially lower year over year following 2024/2023 restructuring .
- No earnings call amid pending acquisition: Sage did not host a Q2 call given the Supernus tender offer; transaction expected to close in Q3 2025, a near-term stock catalyst alongside improving ZURZUVAE momentum .
- Liquidity and coverage: Cash/cash equivalents/marketable securities were $366M (vs. $424M in Q1), with >95% Commercial/Medicaid lives covered or a path to coverage, supporting further commercial scale-up .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Collaboration revenue growth and demand momentum: ZURZUVAE collaboration revenue rose to $23.2M (+68% q/q), with >4,000 prescriptions shipped (+36% q/q) and >13,500 since launch, evidencing improved commercial traction in PPD .
- Favorable access and prescriber mix: ~80% of scripts from OBGYNs; ~80% of patients received ZURZUVAE as first new treatment; >95% lives covered or with a path to coverage; these dynamics support sustained adoption .
- One-time cost reversal: Cost of revenues were -$0.1M due to a one-time reversal of previously accrued regulatory expenses ($0.6M), demonstrating disciplined cost management within commercialization activities .
- Management tone: “Our second quarter results reflect revenue acceleration driven by increased investment, strong execution, and growing momentum behind ZURZUVAE…” — Barry Greene, CEO .
What Went Wrong
- Elevated SG&A: SG&A rose to $62.0M (vs. $57.6M in Q1 and $56.0M y/y), reflecting higher commercialization efforts and professional fees from strategic alternatives review, a drag on operating leverage near term .
- Continued losses despite improvement: Net loss remained sizable at $49.7M, limiting near-term profitability despite revenue growth and lower R&D y/y .
- Reduced transparency: No Q2 earnings call due to the pending Supernus transaction, limiting detail on near-term trajectory, guidance specifics, and launch cohort analysis .
Financial Results
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Our second quarter results reflect revenue acceleration driven by increased investment, strong execution, and growing momentum behind ZURZUVAE, underscoring our collective commitment to advancing care for women with postpartum depression.” — Barry Greene, CEO .
- “As we work with Supernus to complete the transaction, we take pride in the progress made to date and remain focused on the important work of helping more patients.” — Barry Greene, CEO .
- Business update: Supernus to acquire Sage for $8.50 per share cash plus up to $3.50 per share in CVRs (aggregate up to ~$12.00 per share), with closing expected in Q3 2025 .
Q&A Highlights
- No Q&A this quarter; Sage did not host a conference call or webcast due to the pending Supernus transaction .
Estimates Context
- Wall Street consensus estimates via S&P Global were unavailable due to a CIQ mapping issue for the ticker; therefore, we cannot quantify beats/misses vs Street for Q2 2025 at this time (S&P Global consensus unavailable).
- Given accelerating collaboration revenue and shipments, consensus for the back half may need to reflect stronger ZURZUVAE uptake; however, formal revision analysis is deferred until S&P data access is restored .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- ZURZUVAE commercial momentum is building: collaboration revenue +68% q/q and >4,000 shipments in Q2, supported by OBGYN adoption (~80%) and broad payer coverage (>95%) .
- Loss trajectory improving: net loss contracted to $49.7M (EPS -$0.79) with EBIT margin improving as scale emerges; further SG&A leverage will be key post-transaction .
- Cost discipline continues: negative cost of revenues in Q2 from one-time $0.6M regulatory accrual reversal; R&D remains materially lower y/y following 2024/2023 reorganization .
- Structural catalyst: Supernus acquisition expected to close in Q3 2025; CVR-linked upside tied to net sales milestones creates future optionality .
- Visibility gap: no Q2 call reduced transparency; watch for integration updates and post-close commercial plans to assess trajectory and margin path .
- Near-term focus: sustaining prescriber growth and adherence, maintaining high access, and converting awareness into prescriptions to drive H2 revenue scaling .
- Risk factors: continued execution needed to achieve standard-of-care status in PPD; market size assumptions, reimbursement/process friction, and competitive dynamics remain monitored variables .