SA
Science Applications International Corp (SAIC)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Revenue grew to $1.98B (+4.3% YoY) with adjusted EBITDA margin expanding to 10.0%; adjusted diluted EPS was $2.61. Management characterized revenue as “better than expected.”
- Net bookings were $1.5B (book-to-bill 0.7; TTM 0.9), reflecting timing softness, while total backlog remained robust at ~$22.4B.
- FY25 guidance was raised: revenue to $7.425–$7.475B and adjusted EPS to $8.50–$8.65; adjusted EBITDA margin ~9.3% and FCF $490–$510M maintained.
- Board authorized a new $1.2B buyback (~20% of market value), with expected repurchases of ~$500M in FY25 and $350–$400M annually thereafter.
- Management highlighted an acceleration in bid submissions (> $25B planned in FY25) and targeted book-to-bill of 1.2 by 1H FY26, positioning for mid‑single‑digit growth into FY27.
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Revenue and profitability: Revenues rose to $1.976B (+$81M, +4% YoY); adjusted operating margin expanded 50 bps to 9.9% and adjusted EBITDA margin to 10.0%.
- Strategic progress: Bid submissions increased to >$25B for FY25 vs prior $22B target, with a pipeline aligned to mission IT and enterprise IT growth vectors. “We again delivered better than expected revenue in the quarter with strong profitability.” — CEO Toni Townes‑Whitley.
- Capital return: New $1.2B repurchase authorization and quarterly dividend of $0.37/share; repurchases expected to be ~$500M in FY25.
What Went Wrong
- Book-to-bill softness: Quarterly book-to-bill of 0.7 (TTM 0.9) suggests near‑term award timing moderation despite improving submit volumes.
- Free cash flow dipped: FCF was $9M in Q3 (vs $97M prior-year and $241M in Q2), impacted by MARPA facility usage, payroll timing, and working capital.
- Civilian margin contraction: Civilian operating margin fell to 8.0% (from 13.0% YoY), with management indicating this year as a trough near ~12% segment margin before expected accretion.
Financial Results
Consolidated Performance (trend view)
Year‑over‑Year Comparison (Q3 FY2025 vs Q3 FY2024)
Segment Breakdown
KPIs
Non‑GAAP Adjustments (Q3 FY2025 EPS)
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We again delivered better than expected revenue in the quarter with strong profitability… we now expect to exceed $25B in submissions this year compared to our prior target of $22B… translating into an improving book‑to‑bill and accelerating growth in Fiscal Year 2026.” — CEO Toni Townes‑Whitley.
- “We are increasing revenue to a range of $7.425B to $7.475B… increasing our adjusted diluted EPS guidance by approximately $0.40, largely due to a lower effective tax rate and modestly lower share count.” — CFO Prabu Natarajan.
- “We expect a renewed emphasis on increasing government efficiency… emphasizing fixed and incentive‑based contracts… We believe we’re well positioned… because we have invested in technology differentiation and commercial offerings.” — CEO Toni Townes‑Whitley.
- “More than 2/3 of the $25B to $30B we plan to submit next year is in enterprise and mission IT work, which produces higher margins.” — CFO Prabu Natarajan.
- “Delivering on our free cash flow per share commitment is a top priority… $11 and $12 in FY ’26 and ’27 respectively… focusing our capital deployment on share repurchases.” — CFO Prabu Natarajan.
Q&A Highlights
- AAV impact: Resolution contributed ~$13–$14M revenue (<1%), supporting margin expansion.
- FY26 trajectory: Recompete headwinds “a little over 2%”; Cloud One compute/store transition could be incremental 2–3%; targeting book‑to‑bill ≥1.0 by 1H FY26 and ~5% growth by FY27.
- Fixed‑price capability: Demonstrated conversion from cost‑plus (e.g., Navy Mark 48), deploying fixed‑price “as‑a‑service” offerings; mix shift is core to strategy, independent of administration changes.
- Protests: ~$0.5B of won work in protest; expect adjudication and ~1% incremental run‑rate revenue from two programs.
- Civilian margin outlook: Management expects Civil segment margin to trough near ~12% this year, then expand 100–150 bps over coming years; Q3 convergence reflected Defense benefit from AAV settlement.
Estimates Context
- We attempted to retrieve Wall Street consensus (S&P Global Capital IQ) for Q3 FY2025 EPS and revenue but were unable to access due to API daily request limits. As a result, explicit comparisons to consensus estimates are unavailable for this report. [SPGI data unavailable via GetEstimates]
- Management indicated revenue was “better than expected,” but without consensus values we cannot quantify the beat/miss versus Street.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Quality of earnings improved: Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 10.0% and adjusted EPS rose to $2.61; the AAV resolution provided a discrete benefit but underlying program performance also strengthened.
- Guidance credibility increased: FY25 revenue and adjusted EPS ranges were raised; margin and FCF targets were reaffirmed, signaling confidence in execution amid award timing friction.
- Capital allocation is a near‑term catalyst: New $1.2B buyback and ~$500M expected FY25 repurchases could drive per‑share accretion and support valuation; dividend maintained.
- Pipeline velocity supports FY26–FY27 growth: Submissions now >$25B with a mix shift toward higher‑margin mission/enterprise IT; management targeting book‑to‑bill of 1.2 by 1H FY26.
- Watch near‑term headwinds: Low quarterly book‑to‑bill (0.7), protests, and Cloud One transition (2–3% headwind) may weigh on revenue optics before new awards convert.
- Civilian margin trough likely passed in FY25: Expect expansion from ~12% segment margin baseline over the next few years, aided by accretive, fixed‑price submissions.
- Operational resilience: Variable cost structure, low capital intensity, and MARPA flexibility underpin earnings/FCF durability even in a softer revenue environment—supportive of continued buybacks.
References: Q3 FY2025 press release and schedules ; 8‑K Item 2.02 with Exhibit 99.1 ; Q3 FY2025 call transcript ; Prior quarter releases Q2 FY2025 and Q1 FY2025 .