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SBA COMMUNICATIONS CORP (SBAC)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Raised FY25 guidance across site leasing revenue, total revenues, Tower Cash Flow, Adjusted EBITDA, AFFO and AFFO/share, driven by stronger U.S. leasing activity, services outperformance, early Millicom closings, favorable FX, and lower share count; Canada tower sale expected to be immediately accretive to AFFO/share upon closing .
  • Q2 revenue beat and EPS effectively in line: Revenue $698.98M vs $673.32M consensus; Diluted EPS $2.09 vs $2.11 consensus; Adjusted EBITDA rose to $475.5M, with margins down year/year on mix and higher costs .
  • Domestic momentum (sixth sequential bookings increase) and services growth underpin 2H acceleration; international churn elevated and bad debt reserve tied to Brazil’s Oi weigh on near-term; Sprint-related churn remains well telegraphed .
  • Capital allocation balanced: 618k shares repurchased in Q2 and 182k post quarter, dividend maintained at $1.11/share; leverage ~6.5x (6.3x pro forma Millicom), ample liquidity; S&P upgraded corporate rating to BBB (investment grade) under new criteria .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • U.S. leasing activity exceeded internal expectations with continued high colocations; services outperformed with construction volumes growing sequentially; backlog remains healthy .
    • Early closing of ~4,323 Millicom sites accelerated integration and contributed to guidance raise; strong tenant demand expected in Central America .
    • Dividend declared ($1.11/share) and buybacks reduced share count, supporting AFFO/share; leverage stable with revolver largely undrawn .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Adjusted EBITDA margin down to 68.1% (vs 71.3% y/y) and Tower Cash Flow margin slightly lower on mix and cost growth; international segment operating profit down y/y (reported) amid FX and churn .
    • Elevated international churn and a bad debt allowance tied to Brazil’s Oi; company increased churn assumptions and booked reserve .
    • EPS slightly below consensus and AFFO down y/y given higher net cash interest and FX headwinds; net cash interest expense rose 23% y/y to $111.5M .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)$693.7 $664.25 $698.98
Diluted EPS ($)$1.61 $1.77 $2.09
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$489.25 $457.29 $475.48
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)70.6% 69.0% 68.1%
Tower Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$527.76 $497.78 $511.15
Tower Cash Flow Margin (%)81.7% 80.9% 81.0%
AFFO per share ($)$3.47 $3.18 $3.17

Estimate comparison (consensus vs actual)

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)Actual: $693.7 / Consensus: $682.40*Actual: $664.25 / Consensus: $662.32*Actual: $698.98 / Consensus: $673.32*
Diluted EPS ($)Actual: $2.3258 / Consensus: $2.0611*Actual: $1.77 / Consensus: $2.1627*Actual: $2.09 / Consensus: $2.1073*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment breakdown (site leasing)

Segment Metric ($USD Millions)Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Domestic Site Leasing Revenue$471.86 $461.00 $469.81
International Site Leasing Revenue$174.47 $155.22 $161.98
Domestic Segment Operating Profit$403.06 $392.72 $400.39
International Segment Operating Profit$127.17 $108.01 $112.83

Key performance indicators (KPIs)

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Towers Built (period)159 67 94
Sites Acquired (period)7 344 (incl. 321 Millicom) 4,329 (incl. 4,323 Millicom)
Ending Sites (Owned/Operated)39,749 39,709 44,065
Shares RepurchasedNone in Q4 583k post-Q1 618k in Q2; 182k post-Q2
Dividend Paid/Declared$105.4M Q4 $122.3M Q1 paid Declared $1.11/share; $119.4M paid Q2
Net Debt ($USD Billions)$12.02 $11.78 $12.28
Leverage Ratio (Net Debt/Ann. Adj. EBITDA)6.1x 6.4x 6.5x (6.3x pro forma Millicom)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (midpoint)Current Guidance (midpoint)Change
Site Leasing Revenue ($MM)FY 2025$2,548.5 $2,577.5 Raised (+$29.0)
Site Development Revenue ($MM)FY 2025$190.0 $225.0 Raised (+$35.0)
Total Revenues ($MM)FY 2025$2,738.5 $2,802.5 Raised (+$64.0)
Tower Cash Flow ($MM)FY 2025$2,054.5 $2,070.5 Raised (+$15.0)
Adjusted EBITDA ($MM)FY 2025$1,898.0 $1,918.0 Raised (+$17.0)
Net Cash Interest Expense ($MM)FY 2025$432.5 $438.0 Raised (+$5.0)
Non-Disc. Cash Capex ($MM)FY 2025$58.0 $58.0 Maintained
AFFO ($MM)FY 2025$1,373.0 $1,385.0 Raised (+$12.0)
AFFO per share ($)FY 2025$12.72 $12.84 Raised (+$0.13)
Disc. Cash Capex ($MM)FY 2025$1,265.0 $1,265.0 Maintained

Drivers cited: stronger leasing/services, early Millicom closings, favorable FX, AT&T MLA straight-line uplift, reduced share count; Canada sale not reflected in outlook timing .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Trend
Domestic leasing momentum & backlogStrong activity, high year-end backlogs Backlogs increased; U.S activity growing Sixth sequential bookings increase; new colos up Improving
Services businessN/APositive volumes Outperformed; construction accelerating Accelerating
International churnN/AN/AIncreased churn; Oi situation in Brazil; bad debt reserve Headwind
Spectrum auctions/regulatoryN/AN/AFCC auction authority reinstated; 800 MHz identified; mid-2026 auction timing for 100 MHz Positive driver
Millicom acquisitionAnnounced under contract 321 sites closed early ~4,323 sites closed early; remaining ~2,500 by Sept 1 assumption Ahead of plan
Portfolio optimizationExited Philippines & Colombia planned Confirmed exits Announced Canada sale; accretive to AFFO/share Streamlining
Capital allocation & leverageLowest leverage in history New $1.5B buyback; leverage 6.4x Buybacks continued; leverage 6.5x/6.3x pro forma Balanced
AI/data demand driversN/AN/AAI apps and device embedding seen as traffic driver Emerging tailwind
Satellite (LEO)N/AN/AViewed as complementary to macro sites Neutral/Complementary
Investment gradeN/AN/AS&P corporate rating upgrade to BBB; considering mix changes Positive

Management Commentary

  • “Domestic activity remained very strong... new U.S. leasing business signed up during the quarter was ahead of our expectations... our company-wide total of new colocations executed during the quarter was the highest in nearly three years.” — Brendan Cavanagh, CEO .
  • “We have meaningfully increased our full year outlook across all key financial metrics... entered into an agreement to sell all of our Canadian tower assets. This divestiture will be immediately accretive to AFFO per share upon closing...” — Brendan Cavanagh, CEO .
  • “We are increasing our full year outlook for all key metrics... drivers include outperformance of second quarter results, higher straight line revenue, earlier Millicom closings, improved services outlook, favorable FX, and reduced share count.” — Marc Montagner, CFO .
  • “Our current leverage of 6.3x net debt to adjusted EBITDA as adjusted on a pro forma basis for the Millicom assets remains near historical lows... repurchased 799,000 shares...” — Mark DeRussy, Capital Markets .

Q&A Highlights

  • Demand durability: Fixed wireless, densification, rural expansion to support sustained network investment; AI-enabled products expected to drive traffic; no material rent reduction initiatives observed .
  • Timing of revenue from new colos: Shift toward new leases lengthens installation timeline; 2H contributions must be higher to meet full-year targets, consistent with backlog .
  • International risk/Oi: Increased churn assumptions and bad debt allowance tied to Oi Wireline’s reorganization; monitoring closely .
  • Canada sale economics: ~$27M CAD leasing revenue and ~CAD 15M after-tax cash flow; AFFO-type multiple ~30x, mid-to-upper 20s after capital gains tax .
  • Exposure to US Cellular and DISH: ~$20M and ~$55M annual revenue, respectively; no planned churn at present; potential overlap over years with US Cellular/T-Mobile .
  • Investment grade considerations: S&P corporate upgrade to BBB; unsecured cost could improve; ABS market already provides near-IG economics; flexibility maintained .
  • Spectrum timing: 100 MHz auction by mid-2026; higher band spectrum later (potentially next decade) .
  • AT&T MLA straight-line uplift: Lease term extensions from upgrades increased straight-line revenue .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 revenue beat, EPS in line: Revenue $698.98M vs $673.32M consensus; EPS $2.09 vs $2.107 consensus*. Q1 revenue in line ($664.25M vs $662.32M*) but EPS missed ($1.77 vs $2.163*); Q4 2024 beat on both revenue and EPS*. Drivers for Q2 beat/margin compression include stronger U.S. activity and services offset by higher net cash interest and FX; guidance raised accordingly .
    Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Guidance raises across major metrics and early Millicom closings are catalysts; Canada sale accretive to AFFO/share on close and portfolio focus on scale markets should support multiple expansion .
  • Domestic momentum remains robust with six quarters of bookings growth; expect 2H lease-up contribution to step up, benefiting revenue trajectory and services volumes .
  • Watch international churn (Brazil/Oi) and FX; management increased churn assumptions and booked reserves, mitigating estimate risk .
  • Net cash interest rising remains a headwind to AFFO growth near term; leverage stable and S&P upgrade to BBB improves financing optionality for unsecured debt .
  • Exposure to US Cellular/DISH is manageable and spread over years; not a near-term overhang per management commentary .
  • Spectrum auctions reinstated and AI-driven traffic growth are structural tailwinds for macro towers and equipment deployments, underpinning medium-term organic growth .
  • Buybacks and dividends continue to support per-share metrics; reduced share count contributed to AFFO/share guidance lift .