Star Bulk Carriers - Q4 2022

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Thank you for standing by, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Star Bulk Carriers conference call on the fourth quarter 2022 financial results. We have with us Mr. Petros Pappas, Chief Executive Officer, Mr. Hamish Norton, President, Mr. Simos Spyrou and Mr. Christos Begleris, Co-Chief Financial Officers, Mr. Nicos Rescos, Chief Operating Officer, and Mrs. Charis Plakantonaki, Chief Strategy Officer of the company. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. There will be a presentation followed by a question and answer session, at which time, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. I must advise you that this conference is being recorded today. We will now pass the floor to one of our speakers for today. Mr. Spyrou, please go ahead, sir.

Christos Begleris (Co-CFO)

This is Christos Begleris. Thank you, operator. I am Co-Chief Financial Officer of Star Bulk Carriers, and I would like to welcome you to our conference call regarding our financial results for the fourth quarter of 2022. Before we begin, I kindly ask you to take a moment to read the Safe Harbor statement on slide number two of our presentation. In today's presentation, we will go through our Q4 results, cash evolution during the quarter, an overview of our balance sheet, an update on the banker benefit and vessels operations, the latest on the ESG front, and our views on industry fundamentals before opening up for questions. Let us now turn to slide number three of the presentation for a summary of our fourth quarter 2022 highlights.

Net income for the quarter amounted to $86 million and adjusted net income of $93 million or $0.84 per share adjusted earnings per share. Adjusted EBITDA was $135 million for the quarter. For the fourth quarter, as per our existing dividend policy, we declared a dividend per share of $0.60 payable on or about March 14, 2023. The graph on the bottom of the page highlights the cumulative performance over the last 12 months, which illustrates the strength of the platform in a robust dry bulk market. Our last 12 months adjusted EBITDA is $809 million, and adjusted net income is $609 million U.S. dollars. Over the same period, we have returned a cumulative dividend of $5.1 per share or $526 million to our shareholders.

Since 2021, we have declared a total dividend of $9.35 per share or $961 million. On the top right of the page, you will see our daily figures per vessel for the quarter. Our time charter equivalent rate was 19,590 per vessel per day. Our combined daily OpEx and net cash G&A expenses per vessel per day amounted to 5,182. Therefore, our TCE less OpEx and G&A is approximately $14,400 per day. Slide 4 graphically illustrates the cash flow bridge for Q4. We started the quarter with $393 million in cash and generated positive cash flow from operating activities of $116 million.

After including debt proceeds and repayments, CapEx payments for energy saving devices and ballast water treatment system installments and the third quarter dividend payment, we arrived at a cash balance of $286 million at the end of the quarter. For the calculation of our dividend distribution, we add back the debt prepayment of $44 million that we drew on January 2023 to end at an adjusted balance of $331 million. Please turn to slide five, where we highlight the strength of our balance sheet. Our pro forma total liquidity today stands at $356 million. Meanwhile, our total debt stands at $1.32 billion. Since 2022, we have completed refinancings totaling $430 million that reduced our interest costs by approximately $5.2 million per year as a result of achieving significantly lower margins.

Our next 12 months amortization is $186 million. We have 13 unlevered vessels with market value of $176 million and no debt maturities until 2024. In an increasing interest rate environment, we have interest rate swaps with an outstanding notional of approximately $722 million fixed at an average rate of 46 basis points for an average remaining maturity of 1.1 years. As of December 31st, 2022, the mark-to-market value of these swaps was $33 million. I will now pass the floor to our COO, Nicos Reskos, for an update on our operational performance.

Nicos Rescos (COO)

Thank you, Christos. In slide six, we illustrate how Star Bulk continues to benefit from a widening of the fuel spread between HSFO and VLSFO. Our 120 scrubber-fitted vessels have surpassed 131,000 operating days with an average system availability of 99.5%. With the current high price spread at healthy levels, our scrubbers meaningfully contribute to our profitability. The Hi-5 fuel spread currently hovers at around $230 per ton based Singapore spot prices, where we cater for approximately 60% of our annual fuel demand. Indicatively, the average Hi-5 spread achieved in Q4 was $253 per ton and $274 per ton for the full year of 2022.

For illustrative purposes, on the top right of the slide, we present a sensitivity table that shows the impact that micro benefit can have on our bottom line based on consumption of approximately 700,000 tons of HSFO for use in to our scrubber-fitted vessels. Please turn to slide seven, where we provide an operational update. OpEx, excluding non-recurring expenses, was of $4,205 for Q4 2022. Net cash G&A expenses were $977 per vessel per day for the same period. During calendar 2022, Star Bulk assumed management of an additional 19 vessels from third-party managers, streamlining ship management operations and costs further. We continue to rate at the top amongst our listed peers in terms of RightShip safety score.

Turning to slide eight, we provide a fleet snapshot and some guidance around our future dry docking and vessel upgrade expenses and the relevant total off-hire days. We have completed our ballast water installation program across the fleet, in line with EEXI and CII regulations, we will continue investing in upgrading our fleet further with energy-saving devices and telemetry aimed in improving our fuel consumption and reducing our environmental footprint, further enhancing the commercial attractiveness of the Star Bulk fleet. Our expected dry docking expense for calendar 2023 is estimated at $27.8 million for the dry docking of 31 vessels, with another $41.1 million towards our vessels upgrade CapEx. In total, we expect approximately 870 days of hire for the same period. The above numbers are based on current estimates around dry dock and retrofit planning, vessel employment and yard capacity.

I will now pass the floor to our Chief Strategy Officer, Charis Plakantonaki, for an update on our ESG efforts.

Charis Plakantonaki (CSO)

Thank you, Nicos. Please turn to slide nine, where we provide an update on ESG matters. For the second year in a row, Star Bulk has participated in the Carbon Disclosure Project, achieving a score of B and improving its performance versus last year, where it had scored a B minus. This rating continues to place the company at management level, indicating a maturity of taking coordinated action on climate issues. It also places Star Bulk above both the industry average of Cs and the global average of Cs, which indicates awareness level. During 2023, Star Bulk will aim to continue improving its environmental stewardship by measuring and reporting for the first time also its Scope 3 emissions, namely the emissions that we indirectly affect in our value chain.

On the regulatory front, Star Bulk has taken all necessary technical and operational measures to ensure compliance with the EEXI and CII targets as set by the International Maritime Organization, which came into force in January 2023. We continue enhancing our well-being program, both on board the vessels and on shore, and also making contributions towards vulnerable groups, environmental protection, education and sports. With regards to the company's governance, Star Bulk is deploying new systems to optimize its commercial and operational performance, and is also further strengthening its cybersecurity systems, processes and controls. I will now pass the floor to our CEO, Petros Pappas, for a market update and his closing remarks.

Petros Pappas (CEO)

Thank you, Charis. Please turn to slide 10 for a brief update of supply. During 2022, a total of 31.2 million dead weight was delivered, and 4.5 million dead weight was sent to demolition, for a net fleet growth of 26.7 million dead weight or 2.8% year-over-year. The supply outlook continues to be the best we have seen in the recent history of dry bulk shipping. Uncertainty on future propulsion, high shipbuilding costs and limited CPR capacity until 2025 have helped keep new orders under control. The order book stands at record low levels of 7.3% of the fleet, with just 25.9 million dead weight reported as firm orders during 2022.

Furthermore, scrap prices have stabilized at elevated levels and should make demolition of overage and fuel-inefficient tonnages an attractive option during seasonal downturns on the back of the EEXI-CII regulation. The average steaming speed of the dry bulk fleet decreased by 3.2% to 11.3 knots during the last year due to record high bunker costs and a weaker freight market. We expect oil prices and bunker costs to remain inflated in the medium term amid the sanctions on Russian oil and strong demand of energy-related commodities.

The situation, along with the new environmental regulations, will continue to incentivize slow steaming and support higher scrubber savings. Global port congestion experienced a correction during the second half of 2022 due to a gradual easing of restrictions and the strong decrease of Chinese imports during the first half. Global congestion remains above pre-COVID levels, especially for smaller vessel types, due to changes in trading patterns related to the war and seasonal bottlenecks. As a result of the above trends, net fleet growth is unlikely to exceed 2% per annum over the next three years. Let's now turn to slide 11 for a brief update of demand. According to Clarksons, total dry bulk trade during 2022 is estimated to have contracted by 1.9% in ton-miles.

Trade was affected by the war in Ukraine, weaker Chinese imports, and a slowdown of global economic activity due to surging commodity prices, inflation, interest rate hikes, and a strong US dollar. During 2023, dry bulk demand is projected to increase by 2% in ton-miles, with the IMF forecast for global GDP growth presently standing at 2.9%. We believe that the relaxation of the strict zero-COVID policy and reopening of the Chinese economy will have a strong positive effect for the dry bulk market, with larger sizes benefiting the most during the second half of the year. Furthermore, the shift of coal, grain, and minor bulk trade patterns to longer haul routes due to inefficiencies related to the war in Ukraine will continue to inflate ton-miles.

Iron ore trade contracted by 3.4% during 2022 and is projected to expand by 0.4% during 2023. China crude steel production decreased by 2% during 2022 as the strict COVID policy limited economic activity and offered no support to the property market downturn that began in 2021. Crude steel production from the rest of the world decreased by 6.5%, affected by surging energy costs and weaker steel margins following the war in Ukraine. Nevertheless, China steel production showed signs of stabilization during the second half, while lower domestic iron ore output and stockpiles provide a positive indicator for imports going forward. Coal trade expanded by 1.8% during 2022 and is projected to expand by 4.2% during 2023.

Global focus on energy security and high gas prices have upgraded the coal trade outlook for the next few years, while the resumption of European and Russian coal trade is benefiting ton-miles. Coal prices increased to record high levels in 2022 due to the disruptions and inefficiencies affecting export capacity. During the last month, a resumption of Chinese coal imports of Australian origin is taking place, marking the end of the unofficial ban that started during the fourth quarter of 2020. Grain trade contracted by 3.1% during 2022 and is projected to rebound by 5.3% during 2023. At the start of 2022, grain market experienced a supply shock as the war abruptly halted the Ukrainian exports for 6 months, which account for 10% of total grain trade.

From August onwards, Ukrainian exports partially resumed through the Black Sea Grain Initiative at around 4% of pre-war levels. The outlook for 2023 is positive as a reshuffle of trade routes is already taking place and other exporting nations filling the gap of the lost Ukrainian supply. Furthermore, a record high Brazilian soybean crop is currently harvested, while the recovery of the Chinese economy should substantially increase the demand of soybean crush. Minor bulk trade contracted by 2.1% during 2022 and is projected to expand by 1.3% during 2023. Minor bulk trade has the highest correlation to global GDP growth, and the economic slowdown has affected trade volumes. Moreover, the containership market correction is moderating support on smaller geared dry bulk vessels.

The war in Ukraine disrupted European Union fertilizer and steel production, creating Atlantic shortages that should benefit bulk coal trades. West Africa bauxite exports continue to expand at a high pace and generate strong ton-miles for Capesize vessels. Despite the current seasonal spot market weakness, the long-term prospects of the dry bulk market remain encouraging given the 25-year low order book, the environmental regulations, and the positive effect on dry bulk demand from the opening of the Chinese economy. Star Bulk is well-positioned due to its scrubber-fitted and diverse fleet take advantage of a recovery in freight rates. Without taking any more of your time, I will now pass the floor over to the operator to answer any questions you may have.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star key. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Thank you. Our first question is from Amit Malhotra with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed with your question.

Chris Wetherbee (Airfreight and Surface Transportation Analyst)

Hey, good morning, everyone. This is Chris Wetherbee on for Amit. Sorry, he's traveling this morning. Just wanted to talk about the cash flow movement kind of expected in the coming quarter. I think, probably people are pretty hyper-focused on the upcoming dividend here and then testing the bottom of the seasonally weak rates. Can you talk us through about how you're thinking about kind of working capital movements? You've laid out kind of the maintenance capital and drydocking costs pretty well on slide eight. Could you also remind us kind of the regular debt amortization expected this year as well?

Christos Begleris (Co-CFO)

Hi, Chris. let's start with the easy, which is the debt amortization. As we said, this is approximately $190 million for 2023 for the entire year. It's slightly down from what we had in 2022 due to better amortization schedules that we obtained during our refinancing. For the first quarter of 2023, in a market that is essentially decreasing, we would expect the change in working capital to be slightly positive.

Chris Wetherbee (Airfreight and Surface Transportation Analyst)

That is to be a source of cash.

Christos Begleris (Co-CFO)

Correct.

Chris Wetherbee (Airfreight and Surface Transportation Analyst)

Right. Okay, that makes sense. Any other things that we could be aware of besides kind of the ballast water system installations, drydocking, the working capital, any other cash flow movements that could impact the dividend here?

Christos Begleris (Co-CFO)

We have provided, I believe, those figures in our investor presentations. If you go to that on our website, you will find. It's actually page eight of our investor presentation. You will find all CapEx items as well as drydock estimates that we expect for the next few quarters.

Chris Wetherbee (Airfreight and Surface Transportation Analyst)

Okay, great. Just as a follow-up, you guys had some pretty good cost control here on the OpEx front. I think last Q, the non-recurring OpEx was recorded around 4,700 per day, now it's down around 4,200 per day. Can you talk about how you achieved this savings? Are there any cost pressures out there right now that we should be aware of that might put upward pressure back on OpEx? Do you think you can maintain it at this new level for the coming quarters?

Nicos Rescos (COO)

Hi, Chris. This is Nicos. This is a result of a few actions we have taken. As we mentioned a bit earlier, is taking in a big number of third-party managed ships and trying to streamline the cost basis. We're trying to increase our reach on getting better discounts and curb the inflation pressure we're getting on spares and supplies. That's really the source of it.

Chris Wetherbee (Airfreight and Surface Transportation Analyst)

Okay. No, sorry, last question

Simos Spyrou (Co-CFO)

Chris, this is Simos. Just to add to this, I would not expect and I would not budget for 2023 the figure that you have there for Q4, $4,200. I would be a bit more conservative and, you know, I would give a figure of around $4,500, which is in the middle between Q3 and Q4 figures for the entire 2023.

Chris Wetherbee (Airfreight and Surface Transportation Analyst)

Got it. No, that's really helpful. Just really quick last question from me. I mean, I think capital discipline is very much a feature of Star Bulk. You guys have done an incredible job over the years doing accretive acquisitions in the past using your shares as currency. I guess with that said, you might not be looking at any deals on the table at the moment. Kind of looking forward, do you think there's interesting opportunities out there, generally speaking, for either en bloc acquisitions or kind of anything that's come to you that you found compelling?

Christos Begleris (Co-CFO)

Well, you know, Chris, we are looking at things now. You know, we're hopeful that the environment may be a little easier to close deals in than it had been in the last year or so. We're optimistic actually, that we may be able to get things done.

Chris Wetherbee (Airfreight and Surface Transportation Analyst)

Okay. Interesting. All right, I'll turn it over. Thank you very much for the time.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is from Omar Nokta with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Omar Nokta (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you. Hi, I was gonna ask. Before I get to what I was planning on asking, maybe Hamish, could I ask, I know it's probably a bit sensitive, but in terms of getting deals done, would that be kind of along the Star Bulk way, in the past of using shares in those deals?

Christos Begleris (Co-CFO)

Everything we're looking at, you know, would involve shares.

Omar Nokta (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. All right. Thank you. All right. I did wanna ask maybe just a bit broadly about the earnings power of the company. It looks like, you know, based off of slide 13 as the bookings you've got so far in the first quarter, that even if rates remain as soft as they are, you'll remain profitable in the first quarter. You know, my question is, I guess one, do you agree that you can remain in positive territory here in the first quarter? Then also, you know, if we assume no changes in the market from here and holding all else equal in terms of, say, fuel spreads or eco spreads or maybe the size premium you're able to capture with your bigger vessels, would you be profitable the second quarter also?

I guess what I'm getting at is really just trying to get a sense for how much of you being profitable in this down market is a result of, you know, fixing ships earlier, before the pullback in spot rates, and then really how much of it is due to the quality premiums you're able to capture across the different ships you have?

Petros Pappas (CEO)

Hi, Omar, it's Petros. Yes, I think we will be profitable during Q1. I believe our breakeven is around $12,000, and you see that we're just above $15,000 right now. The bulk of our open positions has to do with Newcastlemaxes. We think that we will be able to maintain the level, depending, of course, on how our market goes. One thing you have to understand is the following. You look at the spot rate being like 2 and a half thousand dollars on the Capesize. That is according to a speed of 13 knots.

What we usually do in situations like this is like that, is that we slow steam the vessels and a trip that would calculate at 2,500 actually ends up calculating at 8,000 because we burn much less fuel oil. If to that you add the scrubber benefit, which for Capes and Newcastlemaxes is higher than other vessels, and the carrying capacity of the bigger vessels, you can reach levels which should be very close to what the average is, even if the market during March stays where it is. Although the market during March is a little bit, the FFA market at least is a bit better than what it is right now.

Regarding Q2, if you look at the FFA average is around $12,500. If you add to that the scrubber benefits and the fact that we slow steam vessels during not very good markets, I think we will be profitable again in Q2 and probably hopefully better than I guess the Q1. We're very positive for the rest of the year.

Omar Nokta (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Thanks for that, Petros. Again, that's very helpful to, I guess, to see that, you know, the 2,500 that we see, you know, published is really almost I guess it's relevant but not really indicative of the earnings power when you take into account the speeds, simply, you know, excluding the whole scrubber and whatnot.

Petros Pappas (CEO)

Yeah. Because if you run a Cape at 13 knots and you burn 50 tons, then if you go at 11 tons, which is like 15... Sorry, it's 11 knots, which is about 15% less speed, you probably burn 25 tons or 28 tons, which is almost 50% below the 13 knot consumption. Therefore, that's where you gain from.

Omar Nokta (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah, thanks. Thanks for that additional color. And let me just one final follow-up and maybe related to Chris's first question about the dividend. You know, obviously, you've had this long-term policy of paying out cash in excess of that $268 million threshold. What does the dividend look like, you know, if ending cash is below that amount? Does it just simply do you stick with the actual policy and the dividend is zero, or a few pennies, or is there a certain floor that you have on the payout?

Hamish Norton (President)

Well, you know, our policy is pretty clear and, you know, we don't frankly anticipate, you know, any market in the foreseeable future leaving us with less cash than, you know, the minimum amount that would call for a dividend. If, you know, if basically our cash balance declines over the quarter and, you know, declines below the minimum threshold, then, you know, as in, you know, 2020, or parts of 2020, there might not be a dividend. We don't anticipate that actually happening.

Omar Nokta (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, great. Well, thanks, Hamish for that and thanks, Petros. I'll turn it over.

Operator (participant)

As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. The confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would like to hand the floor back over to management for any closing comments.

Petros Pappas (CEO)

No further comments, operator. Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.