SilverBow Resources - Q1 2024
May 2, 2024
Executive Summary
- Q1 2024 was operationally strong: revenue rose to $256.7M, Adjusted EBITDA hit a record $200.1M, and free cash flow reached $56.2M; GAAP diluted EPS was ($0.61) due to a $90M unrealized hedge loss and ~$5M advisory fees.
- Management raised FY24 production to 90.0–97.3 MBoe/d (48% liquids) and FY24 free cash flow to $175–$200M; capex unchanged at $470–$510M; year-end leverage target was lowered to ~1.25x, with <1.0x targeted in 2025.
- Q1 production averaged 91.4 MBoe/d with oil at 24.5 MBbl/d; lower-than-planned capex ($109.5M) aided FCF and debt reduction; total debt was $1.096B, leverage ratio 1.35x (pro forma as defined).
- Catalyst: “beat and guide-up” messaging in the press release and call (record EBITDA, FCF raise, debt paydown) plus visible capital efficiency gains (refracs, horseshoe wells) should support sentiment; however, GAAP loss and hedge mark-to-market may temper optics near-term.
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record quarterly Adjusted EBITDA ($200.1M) on stronger production and lower capex; free cash flow of $56.2M enabled accelerated debt reduction and lowered leverage.
- Liquids growth and operational execution: oil production up ~116% YoY to 24.5 MBbl/d; average production 91.4 MBoe/d in the upper half of guidance.
- Strategic/technical wins: initial refracs with >100% IRR and <10-month payout; first Austin Chalk horseshoe well reduced D&C costs ~25% and cycle times ~15%; identified >30 horseshoe and >100 refrac opportunities.
- Management quote: “Our first quarter results were outstanding… we are staying disciplined on returns and demonstrating accelerated debt paydown… increase to our full year 2024 outlook for production and free cash flow” — CEO Sean Woolverton.
What Went Wrong
- GAAP optics: net loss of $15.5M (diluted EPS -$0.61) driven by a $90.1M unrealized derivative loss and ~$5M advisory fees, despite strong fundamentals.
- Interest burden remains notable with $36.0M interest expense in the quarter; leverage at 1.35x, albeit trending lower.
- Hedge marks pressure reported earnings; commodity realization for gas at $1.96/Mcf (pre-hedge) reflects weak spot pricing environment, though hedges lift realized to $3.27/Mcf.
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good day, and welcome to the SilverBow Resources First Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number 1 on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star 1 again. We ask that you limit your questions to one and one follow-up, so we are able to take as many questions as possible. For operator assistance throughout the call, please press star 0. And finally, I would like to advise all participants that this call is being recorded. Thank you. I'd now like to welcome Jeff Magids, Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations, to begin the conference. Jeff, over to you.
Jeff Magids (VP of Finance and Investor Relations)
Thanks, operator, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our first quarter 2024 conference call. With me on the call today are Sean Wolverton, our CEO, Steve Adam, our COO, and Chris Abundis, our CFO. Yesterday, we posted a new presentation to our website, and we'll refer to it during this call. Please note that we may make references to certain non-GAAP financial measures, which are reconciled to their closest GAAP measure in the earnings press release. Our discussion today may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond our control. These risks and uncertainties are described more fully in our documents on file with the SEC, which are also available on our website. As a reminder, please limit your time during Q&A to one question, one follow-up. This will allow us to get more of your questions in this morning.
With that, I will now turn the call over to Sean.
Sean Wolverton (CEO)
Good morning, everyone. As you can see from our results, SilverBow is off to a very strong start in 2024. We continue to prove the merits of our long-term business strategy and build on our effective track record of creating value for shareholders. Our call today will cover three primary topics. First, our year-to-date results, which are ahead of plan. Early this year, we optimized our 2024 operating plans, capitalizing on our diversified portfolio to reduce investments in dry gas and focus on our profitable liquids development. Our goal was to maximize free cash flow and rapidly strengthen our balance sheet. Our plan is working. Today, we are raising our full year free cash flow estimate and lowering our year-end leverage ratio target to 1.25x. More importantly, we now have line of sight to reach our target of 1x leverage next year.
Second, we continue to see capital efficiency gains across our operations, delivering some significant operational achievements over the last few months, which we see as sustainable. Finally, we continue to strengthen our portfolio and recently completed the final stage of a multi-year effort to assemble a 25,000-acre position in the liquids window of the Eagle Ford. We did this with no new capital. This is one of the last contiguous, undeveloped areas of scale in the basin, and we are excited about the high-margin liquids exposure it adds to our portfolio. Listen, we are executing very well, and it's apparent that our focus is squarely on running the company and adding value for our owners. I recognize there are likely questions related to our ongoing proxy contest, but I do not want to distract from our good news today.
Before Q&A, I will make a few points about the governance changes we are proposing and remind you how important your vote is at our upcoming annual meeting. Let's get started with a look at the first quarter. We beat across the board this quarter. All the results are covered in our materials, but I will briefly hit the highlights. We generated $56 million in free cash flow, much higher than expected in our original forecast, primarily due to continued gains in capital efficiencies and strong production and product pricing. We are seeing strong well productivity from our recent pad developments and the success of our refrac program. This has provided us with even more confidence in our forecast. Today, we increased our expectations for full-year 2024 production, as well as our outlook for free cash flow.
Importantly, capital investments in the quarter were lower than planned, and our team continues to exercise capital discipline while finding creative and safe ways to lower cash operating costs and enhance margins. Our expectations for full-year capital investments are unchanged. Said another way, we are offsetting faster cycle times with continued capital efficiency gains. As I have shared previously, our commitment to strengthening our balance sheet is unwavering, and strong production and higher free cash flow have allowed for rapid debt repayment. Since closing the South Texas acquisition, we have repaid $178 million in absolute debt. This represents a 15% debt paydown in just 5 months. Overall, our leverage ratio has recovered to the same level it was prior to the South Texas acquisition.
This is further proof that we are following through when we say strengthening our balance sheet is a top priority. We expect to exit the year at approximately 1.25x, and to reach our goal of less than 1x leverage in 2025. Turning our attention to our operational performance, there are three achievements I would like to highlight. First, we have known for some time that refracs have the potential to provide considerable upside value to us across our asset base, as many of our legacy wells were completed with less than optimal completions when compared to today's standards. We initiated our refrac program this quarter, and the initial results clearly show that re-stimulating existing wells with larger jobs and tighter cluster spacing can materially enhance well productivity. In our deck, we have a slide summarizing our results.
Key takeaway, these wells reach payout in less than 10 months. We have more than 100 refrac opportunities across our portfolio, and we are moving additional refracs into this year's program. We see our refrac program as a capital-efficient way to maximize volumes while providing flexibility in a time of strong oil prices. Next, we recently drilled our first horseshoe well in the Austin Chalk. The well had a lateral length of nearly 9,000 feet and was drilled in place of two less than optimal shorter laterals. The well reduced total D&C costs by 25% and improved cycle times by 15% when compared to drilling two wells. Now that we have proven our ability to drill horseshoe wells, we can use this advanced technology across our asset base to enhance returns and capture incremental resource.
We have identified more than 30 additional horseshoe wells to unlock value on what would have been stranded acreage. Third, let's talk about some recent success on our South Texas acquisition. Please take a look at slide 12, where we show just how far we are outperforming the previous operator. We are completing a 10-well pad to develop 4 stacked horizons and expect to have initial production late this quarter. In just a few short months, our enhancements have decreased gross drilling costs, drilling days, and cost per foot across the Upper Eagle Ford, Lower Eagle Ford, and Austin Chalk. Early results here, combined with what we've delivered on previous acquisitions, further demonstrate assets are better in SilverBow's hands and clearly show the operational excellence and capital efficiency our team can bring to an asset.
Let's now shift gears and talk about how our strategy is creating value through acquisitions as we build a scale and durable portfolio. Our latest accomplishment is a 3-year effort encompassing contributions from our technical, business development, and land teams. Through a series of transactions culminating in a recent land trade, we have assembled a contiguous 25,000-acre position across La Salle and McMullen counties in the liquids window of the Eagle Ford. Our subsurface team specifically targeted this area because of its high rock quality and a lack of modern-day completions. In addition, many of the legacy wells were drilled out of zone. Importantly, over the last 12 months, we brought online 6 wells in the area, which have delivered rates of return greater than 100%, with productivity far exceeding our expected type curve.
With an estimated 150 long lateral locations to develop in the area, we see this as a powerful liquids lever to pull in our diversified portfolio. Before we go to Q&A, let me address our upcoming annual meeting and the importance of your vote. I firmly believe today's results speak for themselves. Our strategy to create value is working. Furthermore, we are proposing governance changes that we feel are in the interest of shareholders. We are asking for your vote to declassify our board, adopt a majority voting standard, and eliminate supermajority vote requirements. We continue to strengthen our board through ongoing refreshment. Recently, we appointed Lee Jourdan as a new highly qualified director with a demonstrated track record in international and domestic LNG markets, natural gas trading, business development, and most recently, as Chief Diversity Officer at Chevron.
Lee is an excellent addition to our board and represents the fourth new director to join our board since January 2023. Through multiple communications with you over the past few weeks, we've clearly laid out our extensive engagement with Kimmeridge over the last two plus years. There is more than enough material for you to review, but make no mistake, their end game is to force a very dilutive transaction with Kimmeridge Texas Gas. I would encourage you to take the time to read through our materials and get educated on the facts. A vote for our skilled board and new governance enhancements is a vote for truth and transparency. We welcome a dialogue with any shareholder. Please reach out. Vote with the board. That's four on the white proxy card.
In closing, I am proud of our team and their relentless pursuit of safely executing our strategy in establishing SilverBow as the operator of choice in South Texas. We sit in an enviable position today. We have scalable scale and durability, built through a history of doing smart transactions and have demonstrated our ability to unlock significant value behind acquisitions. Our assets provide us with flexibility in how we allocate capital today to deliver strong results. We are not reliant on near-term acquisitions to enhance our inventory. Our capital structure is strong and getting stronger. With our increased outlook for free cash flow, we now expect to achieve our leverage target of less than 1x in 2025.
Most importantly, we are executing a business plan that has proven to create value, and we are confident that we will close the significant value gap we see in our equity today. We look forward to reporting on our progress as we continue to focus on creating value for all SilverBow shareholders. Operator, we are now ready to address questions.
Operator (participant)
At this time, I would like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, please press star followed by the number 1 on your telephone keypad, and that we ask you to limit your questions to 1 and 1 follow-up, so we are able to take as many questions as possible. Your first question comes to the line of Tim Rezvan from KeyBank. Your line is open.
Tim Rezvan (Analyst)
Good morning, folks. Thanks for taking my question. I'll stick with ops here. So my first question, you know, the trade you did, kind of core up that La Salle and McMullen acreage. You talked about 10-12 additional wells planned for this year. Are those wells you're not drilling elsewhere? I'm just trying to understand how this trade, you know, maybe changed your drilling plans for the year. And then just as a follow-up, was there any production that came with that trade that impacted the production guide for the year? Thanks.
Sean Wolverton (CEO)
Yes. Hey, Tim, appreciate the question. And, yeah, we're really excited about it. You know, in terms of production, I think, there was about 500 Mcf a day that was divested of in the trade, and then the rest of it was all on acreage. Would tell you that, you know, this is a great example of how you have a larger portfolio, and you can take advantage of it to unlock value. This block, in its entirety, we paid $0 to acquire 150 locations.
In terms of activity, you know, what we're really excited about is the 2 wells we drilled last year, the 4 wells we brought on this year, and those 4 wells this year are actually responsible for some of the upward tick that we put into our production guidance. What we're doing is reallocating capital from other parts of the capital plan to this area. So it's not additive to the capital plan. It just gives us more optionality to shift capital to higher rate of return projects.
Tim Rezvan (Analyst)
Okay. Okay, so those wells there, wells you're not drilling elsewhere this year?
Sean Wolverton (CEO)
Correct.
Tim Rezvan (Analyst)
Okay. Okay, I appreciate that.
Sean Wolverton (CEO)
Yes.
Tim Rezvan (Analyst)
We look forward to the updates there. Then a follow-up either for you or for Chris on hedges. You know, the company's shrinking the balance sheet. You're on the cusp of getting kind of leverage to that 1x goal. And I know that there's potential options with the high-yield market out there. And, you know, farther down the line, you think about cash returns. I thought we might see you all layering in some more hedges, you know, with the strip having kind of moved like it did. So how do you think about, you know, hedging as you kind of get closer to the finish line on the deleveraging initiatives?
Sean Wolverton (CEO)
Yes. No, no, appreciate it. You know, we, you know, during the quarter, and since the last time we spoke to everyone, we did layer on some incremental hedges, you know, topping off some oil this year, at, you know, in the second half of the year when it was above 80, and then putting some hedges on it in 2025. We're, you know, essentially 75% hedged for 2024, and we're about, you know, with 75% of that gas, 67% of it oil. And then next year, we have a pretty strong hedge book as well. Consistent with what we've done in the past, as we start to move closer towards 2025, we'll be opportunistic to start layering in more hedges as the plan for 2025 becomes more clear.
And typically, by the time you know, where we're at this year, by the time we get into the drilling program for 2025, I'm sure we'll be at two-thirds hedged or higher. You know, I think to your point, and it's one that as we de-lever the balance sheet, we'll start to have more flexibility in not the, you know, hedging as much. But for now, we're committed to a pretty conservative hedge program. I think you raised a good point in terms of the accelerated debt paydown giving us optionality.
You know, one of the things we did with our second lien is we have an amortization structure to it, so we're able to pay some of that absolute second lien down throughout the year, which will, you know, essentially move debt to our cheaper cost of debt in the RBL. But it also allows us to think about starting to explore the high yield market. And where we're at as a company with the transactions that we did last year with the South Texas acquisition, it really positioned us from a size and scale standpoint, a commodity mix, and a balance sheet that puts us in a good position to access the public market.
So, obviously, that market's hot, and it's something that we're keeping a close eye on, as we go forward.
Tim Rezvan (Analyst)
Okay. I appreciate those comments. If I could sneak one last one in.
Sean Wolverton (CEO)
You bet.
Tim Rezvan (Analyst)
You gave some comments on the refracs here. To be blunt, refracs have been sort of a mixed bag for the industry over the last sort of 8-10 years. The comments generally you hear from shale is that you get a stout initial rate and then massive decline. You talked about 10-month paybacks. What gives you confidence on that? And can you talk about just what the cost is for these refracs? And that's all I have. Thank you.
Sean Wolverton (CEO)
Yes. Thanks, Tim. You know, your comment around refracs historically and mentioning of 8-10 years. In my 35 years in the business, I've seen probably 2 or 3 generations of refracs come and go, and to your point, exactly, oftentimes you'll see production ramp and then come right back down. Would tell you that we've been probably a little cautious in jumping into refracs. We watched a number of the large operators in the basin perform them. Conoco's had a very aggressive program. Devon, I know, has been out talking to the market about the refracs over in the Eagle Ford over the last couple of years. So we did our first 2, learned a lot from what those operators have done.
Essentially, we're going back in, cementing in a brand-new liner, and starting over in terms of the completion. Why we have confidence is we've got the long-term production from, you know, other operators that have done it over the last couple of years, using similar techniques there that they used on ours. And then, you know, we've got 60+ days, 45-60 days of production thus far, and production is actually holding fairly steady. One of the things that we are doing is, right from the start, hitting it with artificial lift to make sure we don't have that falloff. I think a mistake many operators make is they implement the capital program and then let the well fall off. So we're being very proactive on lift. So thank you.
Operator, we'll take our next question.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes to the line of Charles Meade of Johnson Rice. Your line is open.
Charles Meade (Analyst)
Good morning, Sean, to you and the whole SilverBow team there. I wonder if we could go back to this slide 9, and you've talked quite a bit about assembling this position, but I wanna talk about the well designs. So that graph you have on the upper right, and I recognize it's early days, but that's a huge uplift in productivity. So the question is: Can you talk about what the deltas are of these 4 wells that you're graphing there with respect to targeting, you know, either between different zones or even inside a zone and different approaches to the completion design?
Sean Wolverton (CEO)
Yeah. Yeah, you bet. You know, this is an area that saw, you know, activity, dating probably in that 2010-2014 timeframe. Part of the position was owned by Pioneer back then. The trade that we did was controlled by a large operator that hasn't done much in the area for quite a bit of time. And then the other position was a smaller operator. You know, just to clarify on it, we put the position together through two acquisitions. Again, paid nothing for the inventory, and then the last piece was a trade. Historically, from a drilling perspective, lateral is shorter, as you really saw during that timeframe. And most of the time, you know, wells were probably drilled in zone anywhere from about 50%-75%.
When we do our look-backs on the drilling, we're probably in zone 98%+. So that's a big part of it, is keeping the bit and the wellbore in what's the most high-quality rock. From a completion standpoint, we almost can look at the refracs numbers that we provide on slide 10 to get a sense of how these wells were originally fracked. Many of them, you know, had cluster spacing of 50-100 feet and pretty big significant stage spacing, and had proppant intensities, probably in the 1,200 pounds per foot or less. So that's what, you know, the area... You know, one thing that we're doing is we've actually started our third and fourth refrac in for the year, and those two happen to fall on this block of anchorage.
So, it kinda speaks to how we, you know, kinda keyed in here.
Charles Meade (Analyst)
...Got it. And then, my second, I'm sorry, were you done there, Sean?
Sean Wolverton (CEO)
I am, yeah.
Charles Meade (Analyst)
Okay, good.
Sean Wolverton (CEO)
Please ask your question.
Charles Meade (Analyst)
Yeah, my second question is about the this proxy fight you have with Kimmeridge. You know, from the outside looking in, you know, one of the obvious things that has worked and kind of continues to work in the E&P space right now is increased scale. And that increased scale, you know, there's lower financing costs, there's more investors who can look at you. You know, there's a number of things that are benefits to increased scale, and that's one of the most, you know, kinda obvious potential benefits of a combination with Kimmeridge Texas Gas.
But what are the you know, what is what's on the other side of the seesaw that makes this, you know, not an attractive prospect for SilverBow and its shareholders in your eyes?
Sean Wolverton (CEO)
Yeah. No, no, I appreciate the question. Maybe I'll start, you know, with... Hey, listen, after probably 2+ years of discussions with Kimmeridge and through analysis with our financial and legal advisors, looking at this would have been the third time we've engaged with them. We're confident that the deal they proposed was not a good deal for our shareholders. It was clear they significantly underestimated the value of SilverBow and simultaneously substantially over evaluated their value on KTG. What I'd say is, you know, we've repeatedly demonstrated our willingness to discuss potential combinations with any and all parties. And, you know, I think we have a compelling path to accelerate our value recognition for the benefit of all of our shareholders.
You know, I mentioned this in my comments, we have an enviable asset base in the basin. In this basin, we agree with you. We're big believers in scale, and this basin is rapidly consolidating. We regularly entertain discussions with interested parties, and I'm not gonna discuss any specific discussions, but I can tell you that our board understands its fiduciary duties to do what's in the best interest of all of our shareholders. And our board and management's interest, they're aligned with shareholders. So I'll kind of say that. Maybe I'll continue on a little bit.
You know, we are firm believers in the merits of consolidation, and the market is rewarding companies, like you said, that have the key ingredients to deliver sustainable value through all cycles. And we've kind of outlined what we have and what we present in terms of that opportunity. The scale we have, the asset quality, the free cash flow generation. You know, our last two quarters, we've demonstrated the significant free cash flow that this asset base has, and we have a balance sheet that I think would work well in any combination. So we feel like today we check nearly all the boxes to earn a premium valuation. Listen, we've really transformed our asset base and demonstrated our ability to capture value-adding deals to create the scale I mentioned.
At the same time, we're executing capital discipline to ensure we generate free cash flow. We're committed to having less than a 75% reinvestment rate, in order to maintain that, you know, strong, strong balance sheet. So I guess I'll, I'll just say, you know, in short, I think we have the right strategy, and, and we'll continue to evaluate, and I'll say this loud and clear, any and all paths to deliver value for our shareholders.
Charles Meade (Analyst)
Got it. That, that's a helpful elaboration. Thank you, Sean.
Sean Wolverton (CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes to line of Leo Mariani from Roth MKM. Your line is open.
Leo Mariani (Analyst)
Yeah, hi. I was hoping you could maybe just you know elaborate a little bit on sort of the plan to close the value gap. Obviously, you just kinda spoke about scale you know being important and critical in the sector, and that you're open to the right types of consolidation. But you know apart from sort of consolidating you know with another entity, what do you kinda see as kind of the pivotal things the company can do to try to close the value gap in its shares here?
Sean Wolverton (CEO)
Yeah. No, appreciate that question, Leo. You know, scale is definitely a criteria that investors are looking for. We feel like the transactions that we've done over the last two years have put us into a, you know, new level of scale, and obviously, it has attracted interest in the company for that reason. But it's important to also have a demonstrated inventory of high quality drilling locations, and for us, even adding to that, high rate of return refracs now. So, you know, purchasers are looking for, you know, deep inventory, and public investors are as well. They wanna see scale, that you have run rate over a long period of time. I think we're showing that.
I think our low margins, our low-cost platform is another ingredient that investors are looking for. So where, where do we go now? I think it's, you know, we were very disciplined in how we've grown to this scale. We primarily, you know, leveraged, you know, debt to, to do that, and we're now aggressively showing the cash flow capabilities of the company in paying down that debt rapidly. And when I say we use debt, you know, we've really never been over 1.5 times leverage over the last couple of years, and we've taken the company from 2.5 times levered at the start of all these acquisitions. So I think what the market wants to see is demonstration on the scale.
You know, quarter was a record EBITDA quarter, so at $200 million for the quarter, we now have a run rate of $800 million annual. We're, you know, paying down debt quickly. We're on track to get to 1x. That just with no rerating in the market, just our conversion of debt to equity, should start to attract investors. And, you know, I think we have other, you know, levers to pull in front of us. Our cost of capital, I think the scale of the company, we can start to look at cheaper forms of cost of capital. And then last but not least, the ingredient that, you know, we're gonna look at, as we get the balance sheet below 1x, is a shareholder return program.
We think we put all that together, and we think that, you know, people should, investors should really be looking at the company and looking at some of our peers and see the upside here.
Leo Mariani (Analyst)
Okay, I know that - that's helpful for sure. And I guess I was hoping you could also maybe just discuss in a little bit more detail the confidence of the company to kinda come out and raise the production guidance after kind of only you know one quarter here, with kinda three quarters left on the year. Can you maybe just talk about the key things that are allowing you to raise the guidance this year?
Sean Wolverton (CEO)
Yeah, it's something that, it's always a great position to be in, right? It's the, you know, base is performing well. We have a very active team that's ensuring that, we're, you know, minimizing the decline of the base. So that's where it starts. And then it's looking at the capital program. And, you know, we think we put a series of slides in the deck, and maybe I'll reference a couple of them. But, you know, we continue to drill and complete faster. Slide 13 is a great demonstration of that. And I'll tell you, where we're just really crushing it is on the completion side. Our completion team is now probably getting 75%-80% efficiencies, meaning that we're pumping 18-19 hours a day.
So that accelerated timeframe to bring wells on brings more production into the year. But like I mentioned in my comments, it's also at a lower cost because of those efficiencies. So it just gives us more capital to work with. So, base, capital efficiency, then well performance. You know, we've got a couple of slides, slide 19 and 17, in the slide deck, that show wells that we've brought on this year that are significantly exceeding, you know, our historical well performance, or I shouldn't say our historical well performance, but positions we've acquired from other operators. We point out the production, and we've already talked a little bit about it on the block, the 25,000-acre block. We're way outperforming there.
Those wells, you know, through April now, have just really exceeded the expectations. In our Central Oil area that we acquired from Sundance, we've had great performance. That's shown on slide 17. And in the eastern expansion, that was that great deal we did where we put Teal, a private operator, together with a position from Conoco to consolidate that block. We call it Eastern Extension. We brought on some great wells there, and you can see how we're outperforming historical performance. So base, capital, well performance, we throw in refracs, and we have, you know, capital savings that we're demonstrating from the capital program that are gonna allow us to put more refracs into the year. We think we'll probably do 8-10 of those a year.
So, we'll do more of them as capital becomes, you know, available. If the team continues to save capital quarter-over-quarter, that'll free us up. And I'll, you know, just say we'll remain committed, though, to only a 75% reinvestment rate. So a lot of detail there, but hopefully it gives you how our... you know, how we view our line of sight and confidence on the forecast.
Leo Mariani (Analyst)
Yeah, that's very helpful for sure. And then just on governance, you spoke to that in terms of some of the changes that you're making here, or at least you're planning to make here. What's kind of the team's current thinking on the poison pill that's in place?
Sean Wolverton (CEO)
You know, the poison pill is something that, hopefully, you know, through all the information that's been put out there, gives investors a, you know, some clarity on why it's there. We've got a shareholder that is trying to really force, you know, an asset onto our shareholders that they're, you know, have significant value destruction around. So we were, you know, I've been asked this question quite a bit over the last couple of years. This proxy fight has allowed a lot of the, hopefully, information around why it's out there, get to give clarity to shareholders.
It continues to be, you know, something what I, I guess I'll say, the, the board will, you know, always evaluate what's, you know, in best interest for our shareholders, and we'll, we'll continue to do that. I'll probably close with saying the, you know, poison pill is due to expire the day after our upcoming shareholder meeting.
Leo Mariani (Analyst)
Okay, thanks for the point.
Sean Wolverton (CEO)
On that front, you know, what we've heard from the activist investor is that the poison pill is in place to keep management entrenched and that we wouldn't do a deal around it.... It's been the exact opposite. With the pill in place, we negotiated a deal, went almost to the finish line with that activist investor, and they didn't close. So I think that's proof that the pill isn't restricting management or board from doing a deal. In fact, it brought, brought a deal to the table. So maybe I'll close with that.
Leo Mariani (Analyst)
Thanks for all the color.
Sean Wolverton (CEO)
Yeah, appreciate the question.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Kevin MacCurdy from Pickering Energy Partners. Your line is open.
Kevin MacCurdy (Analyst)
Hey, good morning. Just looking at the Q2 guide, it looks like oil production is kind of flattish after growing significantly in the first quarter, and then the full year guide implies more growth. Just curious how the activity plays into that trajectory, and is there any effect from the activity restrictions on the Chesapeake acreage?
Sean Wolverton (CEO)
Hey, Kevin, good morning. Yeah, let me maybe walk you through some of it. You know, we came into the quarter, brought on a third rig in the early part of the first quarter. Brought on, I think, what was it, Jeff? 12 wells in the quarter, but in February, we moved two of the rigs onto a 10-well pad on the Chesapeake asset. So as you might expect, the TIL turn for second quarter is lower as we complete that 10-well pad. So for the second quarter, we're anticipating bringing on seven TILs for the quarter. So 2Q will be the low. We're moving in and starting to frac that 10-well pad as we speak. You think about that, these are long laterals.
We have well over 500 stages that we're gonna frack there. So, you know, with all the frack efficiencies, the team will probably exceed expectations again. And right now, we're scheduled to bring that pad on late in 2Q, but maybe we can, you know, with efficiencies, pull it up a little bit. But 2Q will definitely be kind of the low point, and then 3Q will ramp up, and 4Q kinda flattens out. We will drop down to 2 rigs in the second half of the year, so that's why you start to see 4Q kinda flatten and layer out.
The only, you know, lever we have to pull, and I mentioned it on the question from Leo, is we have some refracs that we could do more of those if we want to, if we have CapEx that becomes available.
Kevin MacCurdy (Analyst)
Great. And there's obviously a lot of attention around the shareholder vote, and you've been pretty clear about your views on the valuation of the KTG asset. Just kinda curious, I mean, you've kinda touched on this, on your view on M&A and the other transactions you've done, but you know, what kind of scale do you foresee being able to add from M&A, just you know, instead of the KTG asset?
Sean Wolverton (CEO)
You know, I probably, you know, won't speak to any specific layer or maybe target there. Would tell you, and I think everyone knows this, we've been the, you know, most aggressive acquirer in the basin with eight deals done over the last couple of years, and there's still plenty to do. So, as you look at consolidation in the basin, you know, I think there's plenty of opportunities. We're very diligent around what those, you know, deals must look like. We've been very vocal around our criteria. It needs to have industrial logic. It needs to, you know, deepen our inventory and compete for capital immediately.
One of the things that we struggled with with the KTG proposal is we haven't been drilling gas down in Webb County or limited amounts for the the past two years. It just doesn't compete for capital in a $2.50 world. In fact I think KTG may be one of the only companies down there drilling. Others have all pulled their rigs out. So deal has to have inventory that competes for capital, and it has to be accretive to our shareholders. So those are the type of deals we're looking for. And what I'll tell you is, hey, we recognize that scale is important for either the the public investor or for companies looking to ac- to do acquisitions. And we're open to, you know, consolidate.
We're, you know, open to be a buyer and open to be a seller. I think that Eagle Ford has a great, great future in front of it, as other basins get consolidated. This one should be the next basin up in our eyes.
Kevin MacCurdy (Analyst)
Great. Thank you for the answer.
Sean Wolverton (CEO)
Yeah.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes to the line of Paul Diamond from Citi. Your line is open.
Paul Diamond (Analyst)
Good morning, all. Thanks for taking my call. Just a quick one. I want to touch on Slide 13. In the operational plan for the rest of the year, how much of, I guess, further improvement in some of these metrics are you all expecting, or is it a kind of runway from here?
Sean Wolverton (CEO)
Good question, Paul. You know, I keep thinking that, hey, can you get any more efficient, you know, on the completion side, we're down to trying to find, you know, 5, 10-minute slots. So when you're fracking 20 hours a day, you do have, you know, time where you have to fuel engines back up and run tools in the hole. We're getting down to where, boy, can you get more efficient? And I'll tell you all that, the completion efficiency, we haven't changed our design in terms of going to smaller stage design. In fact, we're continuing to enhance it. So, completions. The team always surprises drilling.
I think, you know, with the scale that we have, we continue to get, you know, large, you, you know, the balance sheet, the inventory allows us to do larger pads, that generate some efficiency, from a drilling standpoint, just being on, on larger pads. We still think probably optimal for us right now is in that 4-6 wells range, but there could be efficiencies, there. And then having, you know, just again, the opportunity to go to, different, you know, inventory, be it gas or oil, we can always, and we've proven to be very effective on, allocating capital to the right returns. So there's kind of my thoughts.
One area that we could add some efficiency gains on is, you know, just leveraging the existing infrastructure, scale that we have. A lot of the assets that we've acquired had infrastructure already there, and we're going back in over the top of them. We're doing that, you know, significantly, where we're drilling Austin Chalk wells over the top of Eagle Ford. So that adds some, you know, cycle time efficiencies where you don't have to go back in and build pads, roads, and put in new pipes. So, maybe a combination of a lot of things. It's getting harder and harder, but we'll keep on grinding at it.
Paul Diamond (Analyst)
Understood. Thanks for the clarity. Just one quick follow-up on the refrac opportunity. 100+ potential targets. How should we think about the economics of those on just a run rate basis? Should we expect or are you expecting similar kind of decreased cluster spacing, proppant intensities? Like, how homogeneous is that opportunity versus a well-by-well, kinda what works best?
Sean Wolverton (CEO)
Yeah, no, a great question. You know, obviously, we've done 2 thus far. We've looked at other operators to see how their wells perform to kind of put a you know, risk percentage on consistent performance. We'll see if we can prove that up, but we're seeing a pretty high you know, performance from well to well. You do run into you know, risks around mechanical issues going back into wells. But in talking with other operators you know, they're seeing a high percentage there. So I think it's probably 75-80% plus in terms of mechanical as well as well performance. Would tell you the 100 inventory, the 100 refracs we've identified, we've looked thus far, mainly on our oil assets.
We've yet to look at our gas assets. And what's, you know, really good, and, and I'll keep on, you know, saying this, is all these refracs are on assets that we've acquired. The one that we really need to tear into is the Chesapeake asset. Those, you know, areas, a big chunk of those wells were done in the, you know, 12-16 range, kinda where they were just going in and, you know, doing the same design again and again and again. So we're really excited about pulling the onion back there, some more. And, and what's always great when you do acquisitions is when you unlock even more value on them than what you paid for.
Paul Diamond (Analyst)
Understood. Thanks for the clarity.
Sean Wolverton (CEO)
Yeah. Thanks, Paul. Appreciate it. Have a good day.
Operator (participant)
As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one. Your next question comes from the line of Donovan Schafer of Northland Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Donovan Schafer (Analyst)
Hey, guys, thanks for taking the questions, and, congratulations on the quarter. I have to admit, I feel like I'm going a little crazy here and pulling my hair out. So, I know you, you don't wanna dwell on the Kimmeridge stuff too much, but, you know, and this is my own view, but, you know, they don't seem to be like, particularly good actors with respect to sincerely having, you know, interest for the rest of shareholders, beyond their own 12% ownership. You know, you, you put out a detailed chronicle of all of the interactions that you've had with them, you know, with dates and, you know, kind of like a, a journal or a log, if you will.
And you've shared that, you know, I think that was part of a response letter you issued at one point, and that was included as, like, an appendix, and I think all of that was filed with the SEC. So, you know, my impression is that is the type of thing that you would not put out there publicly if you weren't prepared to back it in a court of law and, you know, provide that evidence, emails, whatever, and so forth. And, you know, they haven't come at you with, like, a defamation lawsuit or something like that, so it doesn't appear to be the case that they can test it.
That chronicle on its own seems pretty damning, in my view, in terms of, you know, at least, you know, in terms of evidence or at least, you know, just generally indications that these guys are not really people you a lot of us would necessarily wanna do business with. So my question is, am I right on that, that chronicle that you put out in that appendix, is that something that you guys would stand behind, you know, hypothetically in a court of law? 'Cause, you know, in my view, that's kinda all you would need to, to make your point here. But just could you, could you answer that?
Sean Wolverton (CEO)
Yeah. Yeah, no, appreciate your thoughts there. You know, a core value for our company is to, you know, really work with all stakeholders, from our employees, our, you know, service providers that we partner with, our mineral owners, and our shareholders. And I would tell you something that we really pride ourselves on, and we receive this feedback, is, hey, we're an honest and transparent company, and we view that's how you do business. And it's really driven a lot of our success. So, you know, our focus is we wanna, you know, stay really driven around adding value and engaging with all stakeholders in good faith, and that's—you know, if we can stand on that, and we think we can, that's the way to deal with this type of situation.
You know, stay focused on what you do and what you believe, and the results will speak for themselves. And we think this quarter should more than demonstrate to investors, the strength of the company. So, appreciate that question and comments.
Donovan Schafer (Analyst)
Okay, and then turning to scale. So I do appreciate the point with respect to scale, and so I'm not pooh-poohing or discounting that. But it is—it's not a perfect straight line in linear relationship, right? Like, you hit these sort of step changes or inflection points where if you're so small, you can't even keep a rig you know running on a continuous basis or... And you know, so then, like, the first threshold is hitting that point, and then you know, hypothetically, someday, maybe there's like a threshold where a company is so big it can you know validate or justify moving upstream or, I mean, downstream and having a refinery or something. Like you know, these these big step changes, but it's not this continuous linear thing.
And here we've got, you know, you said your own words, "The completion team's really crushing it." So it sounds like you've got, you know, the scale for bargaining, you know, to get fantastic crews and teams and to keep them in your basin and to keep them busy, all these good things. And so, you know, yeah, like a 10x scale benefit, like, if you were acquired by an ExxonMobil or something, yeah, they can squeeze other things out of it. But is there, is there anything I'm missing in terms of, is there some scale benefit, like an uptick, that would just be sort of right around the corner that, you know, if you guys were only, you know, 50% bigger, whatever size you'd get with someone like Kimmeridge, like, that there's just some, you know, genuinely thing that would be unlocked by that?
Or, or is it at this size and scale, going from one increment to the next, does it really make such a difference?
Sean Wolverton (CEO)
No, no, great, great question. You know, I think it's the old argument of, you know, do you just scale for the sake of scale? And I think that's a dangerous approach to pursue. You know, a company has to be very thoughtful and diligent around doing transactions. You don't wanna do transactions that are, you know, destructive to your balance sheet. We've said all along that, hey, if we do a deal and we use leverage to do it, we'll have a leverage in and around 1.5 times, and we'll only go to that level if you show clear line of sight of bringing that leverage down. And that's what we did with the Chesapeake transaction.
We, you know, got to 1.6 for maybe 30 days, and within a quarter, brought it down 2 clicks. So you gotta think about, hey, the way you do scaling is important. You gotta protect the balance sheet. It's gotta bring. You know, you don't wanna pay. What we've really loved about our deals is we don't pay for locations. We look at some of the deals that are out there and some that have been proposed, and people are wanting, you know, $2 million-$4 million a location, or people are paying $2 million-$4 million a location for wells that you won't drill for, you know, 6, 7, 8 years as you're waiting for higher commodity prices. That's just destructive to a balance sheet to do that.
So we've never paid for locations, which we think is imperative when you scale. It just has to improve margins and reduce costs. So those are the criteria that we have. I think if you do the right scaling, to your point, it starts to see that uplift, and there's a clear trend that investors want scale and/or bigger companies to looking to acquire one scale. But the criteria I took through on an acquisition, you know, really successful companies employ that same thought process. So listen, we're gonna continue to stay focused. We continue to you know, be open to scale and big cheerleaders of scaling in the Eagle Ford, and we think SilverBow will play an active role in that as we move forward.
Donovan Schafer (Analyst)
Okay, and then if I can squeeze just one more question in. It's around the idea or the notion of sort of valuation gap as a point of focus. So, you know, with public markets and the way the stocks are valued, there are sort of the things you can control and the things that you can't control. And, you know, I, I've seen, and I, I think a lot of us on this call, we've all seen cases in the past where focusing on, quote-unquote, "closing a valuation gap" as a point of focus, you know, turned out to be the wrong thing. Maybe something could be done for optics. The Whiting acquisition of Kodiak or merger with Kodiak comes to mind.
I mean, that was, as far as I can tell, just so that they could say, "Hey, we are the largest producer in the Bakken." So they could leapfrog Continental and just get that, like, almost literally just for a headline... because they were at a discount to Continental. And so it's like, look, if we get the headline that says we're the biggest Bakken producer, we're gonna get that multiple. That was a disaster. So my question is, you know, and the depressed valuation that is tied, you know, gas prices are so low right now, and you got the hedging and everything, which is great, but the Eagle Ford, of all basins, the Eagle Ford is somewhere that is just such a beast and can really shine.
I mean, just the raw quantity of energy that can come out of these wells that only gets economically reflected when gas prices are better. You know, that's like a sleeping giant component there. And so. But you don't have control, right? Like, you know, these valuation things and all that might change or just come around when natural gas prices come back. And so the question is, is it even do you think, honestly, sort of in your heart of hearts as a CEO, and maybe this is a sensitive question, but is it, is it even right or fair? And let's say, like, is it, is it fair to long-term shareholders, to shareholders who are looking past just a couple quarters, is it fair to them to be thinking about, like, quote, unquote, "valuation gap" right now, at this moment in time?
Sean Wolverton (CEO)
Yeah. Yeah, I think that's what, you know, a lot of investors are looking for, right? That opportunity to invest in equity, a company that has clear long-term strategy to add value. We talked through on today's call some of the key metrics of getting there and attracting more investors to the stock. I think, you know, SilverBow is on that cusp. We're on a totally different trajectory. We have a ton of momentum behind us. I think you raise an excellent point, though. You know, short-term investors, investors that, you know, focus on 30-day type numbers, 60-day type numbers, and how things trade over a short period of time, you know, they're probably, you know, not seeing the bigger picture.
We like to point to, hey, what have we shown in value creation over the long term? You know, on slide 5 of our presentation, we lay out what our 1-year return is relative to our peers, our 3-year return, our 5-year return. And that's what long-term investors recognize is, hey, if you're doing building the right company, putting the right assets in place, having the right people to execute on those assets, and a real strong financial position, investors will come and recognize that value. So that's where we're, we're focused on. And maybe I'll, I'll close and just say that, hey, anyway SilverBow is the largest public pure-play operator in the Eagle Ford, and so attention on the Eagle Ford, we really want it.
You know, some of what, you know, probably what we're doing right now is drawing attention to it. That's great. Any further combinations that we do will even make a bigger pure-play Eagle Ford, if we chose to go that route. So, yeah. Anyway, I appreciate all your questions, Donovan.
Operator (participant)
There are no further questions at this time, so I'd like to hand the call back over to Sean.
Sean Wolverton (CEO)
Thank you, Gavin. Appreciate everyone's interest in the company. Hopefully, you'll take away from this call that the company had a really great quarter, and we have a ton of momentum, and we look forward to sharing more information with you. Like I said in my comments, we're always available. Please reach out if you have any questions that you'd like for us to address. Appreciate it.
Operator (participant)
That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now all disconnect.