Sabra Health Care REIT - Earnings Call - Q3 2025

Executive Summary

• Q3 2025 delivered solid top-line and SHOP performance: total revenues were $190.0M, GAAP diluted EPS was $0.09, Normalized FFO was $0.36, and Normalized AFFO was $0.38, with SHOP same-store Cash NOI up 13.3% YoY (15.9% ex-Holiday).
• Versus consensus, revenue beat while EPS missed: Revenue $190.0M vs $188.6M estimate; GAAP EPS $0.09 vs $0.185 estimate; management emphasized normalized FFO/AFFO in line with expectations and guided midpoints maintained for those metrics (EPS/Revenue consensus from S&P Global)*.
• Guidance updated: Normalized FFO/AFFO midpoints unchanged at ~$1.46 and ~$1.50, respectively; GAAP EPS range lowered and AFFO range trimmed; assumptions reaffirmed (G&A ~$50M, cash interest ~$104M, diluted shares ~244.7M/245.7M).
• Strategy shift accelerates: SHOP concentration target raised to 40% (from 30%), Net Debt/Adj. EBITDA improved to 4.96x, and Moody’s upgraded senior unsecured rating to Baa3; robust acquisition pipeline positions 2026 for stronger contribution.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• SHOP momentum: Same-store Cash NOI rose 13.3% YoY (15.9% ex-Holiday) with sequential margin improvement to 28.3%; occupancy trends and REVPOR growth underscore operating leverage.
• Portfolio de-risking and balance sheet strength: Net Debt/Adj. EBITDA fell to 4.96x; cost of permanent debt was 3.94%; Moody’s upgraded to Baa3 with Stable outlook.
• Strategic clarity: CEO raised SHOP concentration target to 40% and expects 2025 investments to exceed prior $500M target; “EBITDARM rent coverage hit another post-pandemic high” across triple-net.

What Went Wrong

• GAAP EPS miss vs consensus amid transition/normalizing items: Q3 GAAP diluted EPS was $0.09 (write-offs and lease termination costs occurred alongside transitions), below S&P EPS consensus*; revenue beat but street focuses on EPS for headline prints.
• Triple-net cash rental income down sequentially: -$3.5M QoQ driven by transitions of four assets to SHOP, asset sales, and normalization of percentage rents.
• Holiday portfolio still a drag within same-store SHOP: management noted lower occupancy in ex-Holiday assets (~80%) weighed on same-store metrics, though stabilization is underway.

Transcript

Speaker 2

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Today's conference call will begin momentarily. You will be placed back on music hold until then. Thank you for your patience.

I heard there was a secret chord the David played, and it pleased the Lord, but you do not really care for music, do you? It goes like this: the fourth, the fifth, the minor fall, and the major lift, the Baffled King composing hallelujah. Hallelujah. Hallelujah. Hallelujah. Hallelujah. Your faith was strong, but you needed proof. You saw her bathing on the roof, her beauty and the moonlight over you

It's a cold and it's a broken hallelujah.

Good day, everyone. My name is John, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Sabra Health Care REIT third quarter 2025 earnings call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad, and if you would like to withdraw your question, press star one again. I would now like to turn the call over to Lukas Hartwich, ABP Finance. Please go ahead, Mr. Hartwich.

Speaker 9

Thank you. Good morning. Before we begin, I want to remind you that we will be making forward-looking statements in our comments and in response to your questions concerning our expectations regarding our future financial position and results of operations, including our earnings guidance for 2025 and our expectations regarding our tenants and operators, and our expectations regarding our acquisition, disposition, and investment plans. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially, including the risks listed in our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, as well as in our earnings press release included as Exhibit 99.1 to the Form 8-K we furnished to the SEC yesterday.

We undertake no obligation to update our forward-looking statements to reflect subsequent events or circumstances, and you should not assume later in the quarter that the comments we make today are still valid. In addition, references will be made during this call to non-GAAP financial results. Investors are encouraged to review these non-GAAP financial measures as well as the explanation and reconciliation of these measures to the comparable GAAP results included on the financials page of the investor section of our website at sabrahealth.com. Our Form 10-Q earnings release and supplement can also be accessed in the investor section of our website. With that, let me turn the call over to Rick Matros, CEO, President, and Chair of Sabra Health Care REIT.

Speaker 10

Thanks, Lukas, and thanks, everybody, for joining us. I'll start by making some comments on our SHOP portfolio. The growth of our SHOP portfolio has exceeded our expectations and now stands at approximately 26% of our portfolio. As a result of that, we had publicly set a target of increasing our SHOP from 20% to 30%. We're now setting a new target of setting our SHOP from where it is now at 26% to 40%, and as we get closer to that, we'll reset target again. Cash NOI growth was a solid 15.9%, excluding the 16 ex-Holiday properties included in same store, and with those in same store was still a solid 13.3%. We believe the performance of the 21 facilities in transition had bottomed out in July. We saw a really nice improvement in August and even stronger improvement in September.

We look forward to that portfolio continuing to stabilize and to contribute to earnings growth going forward. We will exceed the high end of our investment targets. Originally, our investment target was $400 million-$500 million. We will exceed the $500 million. In addition to that, the pipeline continues to be robust, and we'll be working on deals diligently, obviously, through the end of the year, which will allow us to get 2026 off to a much stronger start and should bode well for volume next year. Our EBITDA rent coverage in all asset classes increased as they have been in the past two quarters. SNF occupancy and skilled mix continues to increase. Our top 10 had its best showing yet. Our skilled exposure dropped below 50% for the first time.

We're really focused on having a very well-balanced portfolio between skilled nursing and senior housing, with senior housing obviously being SHOP specifically being a much stronger driver of earnings growth than the triple-net portfolio. The regulatory environment for skilled nursing remains stable. Leverage came in below five times. Talya and Darren will both provide details on our SHOP performance. Talya?

Speaker 3

Thank you, Rick. First, I want to say something, and that is this is my last earnings call at Sabra. So before I begin my remarks, I want to thank everyone for following and supporting Sabra for the past 15 years. As of the third quarter, Sabra's managed senior housing portfolio contributed nearly 26% of our total annualized cash NOI, as recent acquisitions contributed to Sabra's expanded exposure to managed senior housing and reduced Sabra's skilled nursing exposure below 50%. During the quarter, Sabra invested $237 million in managed senior housing, including $20 million for the acquisition of the operations of four leased senior housing properties. In addition, during the third quarter, Sabra was awarded an additional $124 million in managed senior housing investments, which closed after quarter-end.

Subsequent to quarter-end, Sabra's pipeline of acquisitions remained strong, with an additional $121 million of awarded deals, not including the acquisition of the operations of a leased senior housing community for an additional $14.5 million, all of which are expected to close later this year or in early 2026. Closed plus awarded deals in 2025 total more than $550 million. We continue to see high-quality properties coming to market, and while competition for assets is real, pricing has remained reasonable, allowing Sabra to continue to be competitive. The full impact of acquisitions from the first half of the year and the partial impact of third-quarter closings resulted in continuing positive momentum in the portfolio. Cash and NOI and cash and NOI margin were up 18.6% and 90 basis points respectively on a sequential basis for the total managed portfolio, including non-stabilized communities and joint venture assets at share.

Further, occupancy increased 60 basis points to 86.8%, and RevPAR rose 4.3% both sequentially in the total managed portfolio, excluding non-stabilized communities and those held for sale, underscoring the quality of the properties in which Sabra has been investing. Development of new senior housing remains in a lull, suggesting that the current supply-demand equation will continue for some time. Now, I will turn over the call to my colleague, Darren Smith, to discuss Sabra's same store portfolio operating results.

Speaker 9

Thank you, Talya. Sabra's same store managed senior housing portfolio, including joint venture assets at share and excluding non-stabilized assets, continued its strong performance in the third quarter. The key numbers are. Revenue for the quarter grew 5.4% year over year, with our Canadian communities growing 10.2% in the same period. Third-quarter occupancy in our same store portfolio was up 110 basis points to 86%. Notably, our domestic portfolio occupancy increased 90 basis points to 82.6%, while our Canadian portfolio was up 150 basis points to 93.1% over the same period, marking the sixth consecutive quarter where occupancy has been above 90%. RevPAR in the third quarter of 2025 increased 3.4% year over year, while in our Canadian portfolio, RevPAR grew 5.8% over the same period. While RevPAR and occupancy continued to grow, expense per occupied room remained relatively flat, only increasing 30 basis points across the same store portfolio.

Cash and OI for the quarter grew 13.3% year over year in the same store portfolio. Excluding the 16 properties in the same store portfolio formerly operated by Holiday, same store cash and OI grew 15.9%. While in our Canadian communities, cash and OI for the quarter increased 20.2% on a year-over-year basis, demonstrating the impact of operating leverage that higher occupancy brings. Industry tailwinds remain strong. Senior housing communities continue to gain occupancy, while operators balance rate and occupancy to maximize revenue. With cost structure stable and revenue increasing, cash and OI and margin continue to grow. Our net leased stabilized senior housing portfolio continues to do well, with sequentially improving rent coverage, a reflection of continued strong operating results. I will turn the call over to Michael Costa, Sabra's Chief Financial Officer.

Speaker 6

Thanks, Darren. For the third quarter of 2025, we recognize normalized FFO per share of $0.36 and normalized AFFO per share of $0.38. Year-to-date through September 30, normalized FFO per share was $1.09, and normalized AFFO per share was $1.12, representing an increase of 5% and 4% respectively over the same period in 2024. In absolute dollars, normalized FFO and normalized AFFO totaled $88.6 million and $92.2 million this quarter respectively. Cash rental income from our triple-net portfolio decreased $3.5 million from the second quarter, while cash NOI from our managed senior housing portfolio increased $4.7 million, for a net sequential increase of $1.3 million.

The decrease in cash rental income was primarily due to a $1.4 million decrease from transitioning four previously triple-net leased senior housing facilities to our managed senior housing portfolio during the quarter, a $1.2 million decrease related to facilities sold late in the second quarter and during the third quarter, and a $600,000 decrease in percentage rents. As we noted in last quarter's call, percentage rents were elevated during the second quarter, while the third quarter was closer to the historical trend. These decreases were partially offset by annual rent escalators on leases accounted for on a straight-line basis, which improved normalized AFFO but do not have an impact on normalized FFO. Cash NOI from our managed senior housing portfolio totaled $30.1 million for the quarter compared to $25.3 million last quarter.

This $4.7 million increase was primarily the result of investment activity completed during the quarter, including $1.9 million from the aforementioned transition of four previously triple-net leased senior housing facilities. This transition also resulted in the write-off of $9.2 million of straight-line rent receivables and $1.2 million of lease termination expense, both of which have been backed out of normalized FFO and normalized AFFO. Interest and other income was $12.7 million for the quarter compared to $10.3 million last quarter. This increase was primarily due to a $2.8 million lease termination income recognized as a result of terminating the Genesis leases and has been backed out of normalized FFO and normalized AFFO. Cash interest expense was $26.7 million compared to $25.8 million last quarter. This increase is due to higher borrowings under our revolving credit facility to fund recent investment activity.

Additionally, non-cash interest expense increased by $500,000 from the previous quarter, primarily related to the repayment of our 2026 bonds and entering into our new five-year term loan this quarter. Recurring cash G&A was $9.1 million this quarter compared to $9.4 million last quarter. As noted in our earnings release, we have updated our 2025 earnings guidance ranges. However, the implied midpoint for both normalized FFO and normalized AFFO remains unchanged at $1.46 and $1.50 per share, respectively. Consistent with previous quarters, our guidance only includes completed investment, disposition, and capital market activity. We are also reaffirming the following assumptions included in our previously issued guidance. General and administrative expense is expected to be approximately $50 million, which includes $11 million of stock-based compensation expense.

Ignoring the impact of acquisitions and dispositions, cash and NOI growth for our triple-net portfolio is expected to be low single digit, in line with contractual escalators. Additionally, our guidance assumes no additional tenants are placed on cash basis or moved to accrual basis for revenue recognition. Our updated guidance assumes that full-year average same-store cash and NOI growth for our managed senior housing portfolio is expected to be in the mid-teens. For context, this quarter, cash and NOI for our same-store managed senior housing portfolio increased 13.3% year over year and on a year-to-date basis is approximately 16%. Our updated guidance also assumes that cash interest expense is expected to be approximately $104 million.

Lastly, our updated guidance assumes a weighted average share count of approximately $244.7 million and $245.7 million for normalized FFO and normalized AFFO, respectively, which is in line with this quarter's weighted average share count after adjusting for the timing of ATM issuances during the quarter. Now, briefly turning to the balance sheet. Our net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio is 4.96 times as of September 30, 2025, a decrease of 0.04 times from June 30, 2025, and a decrease of 0.34 times from September 30, 2024. As of September 30, 2025, the cost of our permanent debt was 3.94%, and the weighted average remaining term on our debt was 4.4 years, with the next material maturity being in 2028. All metrics that were meaningfully improved through the opportunistic refinancing of our 2026 bonds with a five-year term loan during the quarter.

Additionally, we have no floating-rate debt exposure in our permanent capital stack, with the only floating-rate debt being borrowings under our revolving credit facility. We remain committed to maintaining a strong balance sheet, and this commitment, together with the anticipated future earnings growth of our portfolio, were significant factors in Moody's upgrading our credit rating to Baa3 during the quarter. This quarter, we entered into a new $750 million ATM equity offering program, which gives us added capacity to thoughtfully and efficiently finance the numerous investment opportunities we are evaluating. During the quarter, we issued $58.5 million on a forward basis at an average price of $18.45 per share after commissions, and in total, we currently have $157.3 million outstanding under forward contracts at an average price of $18.14 per share after commissions. We also settled $165 million of outstanding forward contracts to fund this quarter's investment activity.

We expect to use the proceeds from the outstanding forward contracts to close on the investments we have been awarded and do so on a leverage-neutral basis. As of September 30, 2025, we are in compliance with all of our debt covenants and have ample liquidity of approximately $1.1 billion, consisting of unrestricted cash and cash equivalents of $200.6 million, available borrowings under our revolving credit facility of $717.8 million, and the $157.3 million outstanding under forward sales agreements under our ATM program. As of September 30, 2025, we also had $690.9 million available under our ATM program. Finally, on November 5, 2025, Sabra's board of directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.30 per share of common stock. The dividend will be paid on November 28, 2025, to common stockholders of record as of the close of business on November 17, 2025.

The dividend is adequately covered and represents a payout of 79% of our third-quarter normalized AFFO per share. With that, we'll open up the lines for Q&A.

Speaker 2

Thank you. At this time, I would like to remind everyone, in order to ask a question, please press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, simply press star one again. We'll pause for a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Harold Grannett with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Hello. Thank you for taking my question. First, I want to congratulate Talya. Thank you for everything you've done. Looking forward, I'm sure, to not having to be on these earnings calls again. My first question is really around the guidance. As you were saying, we saw strong core performance, especially in your SHOP portfolio, as well as we've seen these increased acquisitions. I'm just curious how the guidance was maintained while we were also seeing these increasing core metrics.

Speaker 4

Yeah, I think the easiest answer to that, Farrell, is the fact that the vast majority of these investments that we're closing on this year are in the latter half of the year. So they're really going to have a pretty muted impact on 2025 performance, but we look forward to their contribution to 2026.

Speaker 1

Okay, thank you. I was wondering if you could also just give a little bit more color on the core SHOP portfolio and pretty much the metrics, excluding Holiday, specifically on the occupancy. If you can give any color on those transitioned assets and maybe the impacts that are causing the difference between the same store and NOI.

Speaker 8

Yeah, this is Darren. The same store NOI has largely been driven down, as we had mentioned before, through Holiday. The Holiday same store NOI is at 5.1%. All the other metrics are very positive.

Speaker 7

Yeah, and we also, it was a pretty tough comp as well. To a year ago, if you go back and look at it. From our perspective, you know, one of the reasons we changed the guidance to reflect mid-teens versus low to mid-teens is because our confidence continues to grow in the stability and contribution of SHOP. The comp was a big part of it.

Speaker 4

The other thing I'll add to that, Farrell, too, sorry, one other thing I'll add to that, you know, our same store pool, the occupancy there was 86% for the quarter. The occupancy for those Holiday assets that are included in that same store pool are probably closer to 80%. You can kind of do the math there on what the non-Holiday assets are or how they're performing.

Speaker 1

Okay, very helpful. Thank you so much.

Speaker 2

Your next question comes from the line of Austin Wurschmidt with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Great, thanks. Knowing that the same store pool is a significant chunk of the overall SHOP portfolio, but can you just share what total portfolio occupancy is and then also how that compares to where occupancy stands on the recent SHOP acquisitions? Yeah, so we do not disclose that, Austin. I would say, you know, the majority of the assets that are not in same store are not in same store because they have not been around long enough to be in same store. That is, you know, a good chunk of that. And the occupancy in those non-same store assets is going to be, you know, largely in line with our same store pool. It is probably the easiest way to describe it. Got it.

As you continue to lease up the senior housing and managed assets, what type of pricing power do you think is achievable for the markets that you're targeting as this becomes, you know, a growing part of the overall company?

Speaker 1

I think that's a really interesting question. Some of the statistics Darren provided on our Canadian assets are very telling about pricing power. As those assets have been above 90% occupancy, the rate growth there, I think Darren said it was over 5% on a Q over Q basis. I think you can extrapolate that over time, assuming there isn't major development occurring in this country, which it doesn't look like it's going to be anytime soon, that our domestic portfolio will get to that level of occupancy where pricing power becomes very relevant and very impactful, in addition to operating leverage.

Speaker 4

Can you share any sense what annual rent increases in the SHOP segment could look like heading into 2026?

Speaker 1

I think we're looking at mid.

Speaker 8

Yeah, mid-single digits.

Speaker 4

Helpful. Thank you for taking the questions.

Speaker 2

Your next question comes from the line of John Plechowski with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hi, good morning out there. My first one is. On Rick, you made some opening remarks about Holiday starting to improve this quarter. I think I just wanted to hear more about the glide path of those assets and what have those operators accomplished so far. I think you noted that occupancy is a little bit lower there. Is there a possibility that they're additive to the overall growth of that portfolio?

Speaker 7

Yeah, they will be additive. I think the primary accomplishment to date with all three operators, because they all assessed their piece of the Holiday portfolio the same way, is that they have right-sized and stabilized labor in the buildings, because even in IL, there has been some acuity creep. The lack of stability in labor or the lack of appropriate staffing of labor prior to the transition did contribute to the just sort of meandering of occupancy and contributed to greater move-outs and move-ins because they simply could not take care of certain residents. Job one basically has been accomplished, which is stabilize all that. Now they are remarketing themselves to the referral sources so they can demonstrate that they can, in fact, take residents who are a little bit higher acuity, which should result in not just.

A wider number of residents that can be admitted, but better length of stay, which obviously contributes to occupancy as well. There is always going to be some lag time between stabilizing your infrastructure and having the benefits of that stability result in a stronger top line. That is fully our expectation.

Speaker 5

Okay, thank you. My second one is just on underwriting. You know, obviously there's a bit of concern about cap rates are getting a little bit tight relative to where your spot cost of capital is. Maybe if we think longer term about that unlevered IRR that you're achieving today on these, I don't know if you can give color there. Also talking about, you know, what that implies as far as like a stabilized occupancy or a stabilized margin.

Speaker 8

Sure. This is Darren. The investments that we have closed on and are evaluating here are going in yields of between 7% and 8% and are expected to deliver mid-single digit annual earnings growth. As a result, we estimate levered IRRs, excuse me, for the investments we've made are in the low double digit range. As far as occupancy is concerned, it really depends on each individual micro market. We typically temper, stabilize occupancy to be in the lower to mid 90% maximum.

Speaker 5

Okay, very helpful. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Your next question comes from the line of Seth Berkey with CD. Please go ahead.

Speaker 0

Hi, thanks for taking my question. I guess my first one is just kind of on the pipeline. You know, as you kind of increase your target for the SHOP exposure, how do you see kind of the mix of, you know, the pipeline of opportunities you're looking at. Skew between SHOP and skilled?

Speaker 8

This is Darren again. Our current pipeline, as it has been for the past several quarters, typically we see 90%-95% of that volume or opportunity set is within SHOP and only maybe 5%-10% on SNF. I would expect us to be heavily weighted towards SHOP moving forward.

Speaker 7

We have a couple of smaller off-market SNF deals that we are working on that are more likely to be an early 2026 event.

Speaker 8

Okay.

Speaker 7

We do have.

Speaker 8

That's interesting.

Speaker 7

We do have some hope that we'll start seeing more SNF volume next year. We're not shying away from it. I mean, we have our own standards relative to the quality we're looking for. But we are looking forward to being able to get more SNF deals done next year.

Speaker 0

Great, thanks. I guess just a second one, kind of on the loan book piece. You have the $300 million mortgage loan that matures next October. Can you just kind of give us an update on, you know, your thoughts around, you know, what happens as you kind of get closer to the maturity date there?

Speaker 7

Yeah, I think the only comments we'd make at this point is that the operations continue to get better. They have a great operating team in place. That has really been great to see. As far as what we're going to do on a go-forward basis as we get closer to the extension, we're having those conversations now.

Speaker 0

Okay, great. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Your next question comes from the line of Juan Senabrio with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hi, good morning. Just hoping you could talk a little bit, Rick, about your appetite or lack thereof around pursuing, building a single idea or opco investments as everybody looks for external growth opportunities in the space.

Speaker 8

No appetite.

Speaker 7

I like the succinctness. Secondly, just hoping you could give us a little bit more color on the U.S. versus Canada split for SHOP. What's the current split on an NOI basis today? Is Canada a market you'd like to grow in? Is there any kind of limitations or governors on rent or growth in Canada? I know some markets, Quebec may or may have some pricing restrictions or rent controls. Just curious on that.

Speaker 1

I'll take the part about appetite. We would like to grow in Canada. We've had good success with the portfolio investments we've made there. I think the biggest, and Canada faces even a longer time frame for getting new supply added to their existing inventory. They have the same demographic issues we do, but without the same labor pressures. There's a really good setup there. The challenge for us is pricing, and that is assets trade for, call it, six handle cap rates. That just doesn't work for us right now. We continue to stay close to that market and obviously have enough exposure to see what's going on. I'll let Darren respond to the rate and such.

Speaker 8

Yeah, as far as the rate is concerned, it does determine which province you're located in. With Quebec having the most punitive or tempered sort of rate opportunity. That being said, there tend not to be any sort of rate restrictions with respect to care. So it's a balance.

Speaker 7

What's the split between the U.S. and Canada presently in the SHOP portfolio?

Speaker 8

Of the 70 total same-store assets, Canada's 25.

Speaker 7

Thank you.

Speaker 2

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Anderson with Cantor Fitzgerald. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Thanks. Good morning. I have a question about the fact that everybody is sort of doing the same thing, which is, you know, expanding into SHOP. It reminds me of, I do not know, 2015, 2016 time frame when operators were all pushing the REITs to move from a net lease model to a SHOP model. I remember thinking, you know, what do they know that we do not? Next thing you know, we are oversupplied and the REITs are underwater, not underwater, but, you know, struggling with SHOP. I mean, when you use that history of, you know, sort of everyone moved to SHOP, now everyone is buying SHOP and everyone is growing in SHOP. Do you have any concerns about this sort of mass wave of movement that, you know, everyone is doing it and maybe we should be thinking about this a little bit more closely?

Because it does feel a little herd-like to me. I wonder if, you know, if that enters any concern into your mind about pursuing this like everybody else is doing.

Speaker 7

Yeah, so I totally get your point. I think the dynamics are dramatically different right now. I mean, you've got the demographics that everybody's been waiting for for three decades are really kicking in. We've got several years, if not longer, a runway before new supply has any impact whatsoever. When you look at the breadth of opportunities out there, for those of us that have been on the SNF side of the REIT business as well, it's almost like it was before the pandemic, where there were just so many different SNF opportunities out there. There were enough for all of us to get sort of our fair share. I think that's the case now. The other thing, obviously, is a complete change in interest rates in the debt market from when the PEs got high on crack.

Because of really zero interest for so long and just leveraged everything up. Of course, that all imploded on them once the pandemic hit. Even with interest rates coming down, it's not going back to what it was. As PEs start to circle around and get more interested in maybe getting back into the space, they still need to spread and they're not going to be able to impact cap rates the way they did back then. That's my answer, Rich.

Speaker 5

I mean, good, good, Ty.

Speaker 1

I want to add one other thing, and that is, we've been doing SHOP for a long time, like basically a decade, almost a decade, if not actually a decade. That's one. We're not newbies to this. That's one. We did not follow everybody. I think the important thing to note is we continue to be really selective of what we're buying. We're very intentionally buying recent vintage assets, all those assets that those PEs developed that then they took forever to lease up and it ruined their IRRs. We're taking advantage of that. It has been an opportunity to buy new assets that are geared to the future. Those, you know, residents like me in a few years. They're.

Speaker 5

Sorry.

Speaker 1

I think that's really important for people to understand. There's plenty of senior housing you can buy that's value add. That's 20 plus years old. That may forever be in value add mode. We're not buying those.

Speaker 5

Okay. By the way, Ty, good luck to you. I will miss your perfect pronunciation of every word that comes out of your mouth. I do not know if anybody else has noticed that about your delivery, but I have. My second question is, you know, what is the shelf life of this growth spurt? Like, you know, what, do we have five years ahead of us? You know, as soon as we have a sniff of new supply coming at us, obviously, maybe that changes that dynamic. Assuming that holds off for the time being, is this a five-year sort of story, two years? What do you think, knowing what is out there today?

Speaker 8

Yeah, this is Darren. I think at the very least, it's going to be two years. I think there's, I've seen numbers around $20 billion of senior housing mortgage debt that's coming due over the next two years, which should provide a lot of opportunity there. I think it's at least two years.

Speaker 5

Okay, perfect. Thanks very much.

Speaker 2

Your next question comes from the line of Alex Hagen with Baird. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Hey, thank you for taking my question. First, may you speak about the managed senior housing pipeline or deal flow, specifically what you are seeing between IL and AL?

Speaker 8

Yeah, sure. We see a combination of both, but it's definitely much more weighted towards AL memory care than IL.

Speaker 5

Okay. The second one for me is, are there any new observations with private capital entering or exiting either the skilled nursing or the SHOP acquisition market? Do you think Sabra and its public REIT peers are taking market share currently?

Speaker 1

On the SNF side, I think you're still seeing very active private capital involved using high debt for leverage. You know, REITs having to be clever in how they deploy capital into the SNF world. On senior housing, we are starting to see private equity come in. They are not disrupting pricing, at least not yet, because of the factors that Rick outlined. We are seeing names come in. They're not coming in with doing huge deals, or take privates yet, or other methods that they use to go in and make a big splash in the past. We're seeing them at the asset level, onesies, twosies. Start. I think they're tiptoeing back in. I think there's some institutional memory, although it's usually brief.

Speaker 5

Thank you for that.

Speaker 2

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Troyek with Green Street. Please go ahead.

Speaker 0

Thanks and good morning. You have now had three consecutive quarters of, call it, 1-2% SHOP expense growth. Do you see this as a sustainable pace in the near term?

Speaker 8

This is Darren. Yes. We do not see anything that should disrupt that trend from continuing.

Speaker 7

The operating leverage.

Speaker 8

Any of the operating leverage, if occupancy continues to grow, just contributes to that.

Speaker 0

Right. Okay. Is any of that low expense growth due to maybe weakness in occupancy within the Holiday portfolio, or maybe that's actually been a headwind given some of your comments on labor right sizing?

Speaker 7

No.

Speaker 0

Just curious how the Holiday portfolio is impacting that.

Speaker 5

Yeah, it was more a headwind than anything. You know, we've talked about this now for several quarters now. Talya has always pointed this out. You know, on an export basis, we've actually seen flat to declining export on our portfolio because of the operating leverage. You know, given where the occupancy is on this total portfolio, there's not a lot of incremental expense you need in order to increase occupancy.

Speaker 0

Got it. That's helpful. Appreciate the time.

Speaker 5

Yep.

Speaker 2

Again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Omotayo Tejumade Okusanya with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Yes. Good afternoon, everyone. Talya, end of the road. We'll definitely miss you and all your advice, and I wish you all the very best.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Speaker 7

Congrats on, of course. Congrats on the credit upgrade, guys. Just kind of curious, as you kind of think about the cost of debt, the implications of the upgrade, does it kind of, you're going to issue debt, volunteer debt going forward? Do you think you're kind of 25% or 25 basis points in, or does it have any impact on your pricing grid?

Speaker 5

Yeah, it's a good question, Tayo. I think the short answer is it doesn't have a material impact on our pricing today. By having all three credit rating agencies rate us at investment grade. Probably a couple basis points, to be very honest with you. It doesn't impact our pricing grid on our credit facility, anything like that. I think what it does for us more than anything, one, it validates our story, which is huge, and, you know, something we've been pounding the table with Moody's on for 15 years, and finally, you know, that worked. Importantly, now that we have all three of those rating agencies on board, you know, we're not exposed to, you know, perhaps one of them going rogue one day and changing their rating methodology, hypothetically, right? That would impact our credit rating.

If we only had two at that level and then one did that, then we'd be in a different situation from a pricing perspective. Now it just gives us more breathing room, more comfort over being able to continue being an investment-grade issuer going forward.

Speaker 7

Gotcha. That's helpful. Could you just talk a little bit about the behavioral portfolio at this point and kind of long-term plans around that?

Speaker 8

Sure. You'll see that continue to shrink as a percent of our portfolio. When we first started investing in it, it was really still during the pandemic, and it was just another pathway to growth. It was before both the senior housing and skilled spaces really started recovering way more quickly than anticipated from the pandemic. It became clear that the best use of our capital allocation was in senior housing and skilled nursing to the extent that we could find opportunities. You know, we noted all along from the beginning of those investments that we thought it was an interesting space. It had some different dynamics and unit economics from both skilled and senior housing that we liked, particularly the fact that the break-even point on profitability was sort of in the 50-60% range. We liked that.

We see it as a growing space. All that said, we also noted that it was very young. The operators that had been proven were few and far between, so the opportunities were always going to be incremental. That is kind of how we got into it and why the growth was so slow initially, and we just have not grown in that. Again, since the latter part of 2023, when it became so apparent what the runway was going to be for senior housing and skilled, that really is the best use of our capital. You know, it will shrink naturally, as I said, as a percent of our exposure. If we have opportunities to invest some of those assets, we will explore that. That is kind of it. Does that answer your question, Talya?

Speaker 7

Perfectly. Thanks, Rick.

Speaker 8

Yep.

Speaker 2

At this time, we have no further questions. I will now turn the call over to Rick Matros for closing remarks.

Speaker 8

Thank you all for joining us today. We appreciate the support. As always, we're available for follow-up and look forward to talking with all of you again. For those of you that we don't talk to before year-end, hope you all have great holidays and be safe. Thank you.

Speaker 2

This concludes today's conference call. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a pleasant day, everyone.