Shoe Carnival - Q4 2023
March 22, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good morning, welcome to Shoe Carnival's Q4 2022 earnings conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. It is also being broadcast via webcast. Any reproduction or rebroadcast of any portion of this call is expressly prohibited. Management's remarks may contain forward-looking statements that involve a number of risk factors. These factors could cause the company's actual results to be materially different from those projected in such statements. Forward-looking statements should also be considered in conjunction with the discussion of risk factors included in the company's SEC filings and today's earnings press release.
Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which speak only as of today's date. The company disclaims any obligation to update any of the risk factors or to publicly announce any revisions to the forward-looking statements discussed on today's conference call or contained in today's press release to reflect future events or developments. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Mark Worden, President and CEO of Shoe Carnival, for opening remarks. Mr. Worden, you may begin.
Mark Worden (President and CEO)
Good morning. Welcome to Shoe Carnival's Q4 2022 earnings conference call. Joining me on today's call are Kerry Jackson, Chief Financial and Administrative Officer, and Carl Scibetta, Chief Merchandising Officer. Let me start today out by thanking our nearly 6,000 team members. During 2022, they ensured our customer shopping experience at Shoe Carnival and Shoe Station stores across the country was exceptional. With the freshest branded products, a modernized shopping experience, more convenient locations to shop, and dedicated service to always meet our customers' needs. As we start fiscal 2023, and I look ahead, we are well-positioned to execute our strategic growth plan to become a multi-billion dollar retailer by 2028, and to provide our shareholders with the top-tier returns in our sector. I would now like to begin by reviewing highlights from 2022.
During 2022, we grew our customer base to over $32 million, with our loyalty membership surging over 34% from just three years ago. Every day of every week, we're learning more about these customers, enabling us to better segment our customer base, better identify the optimal product for them, and to better engage them with meaningful messages and the freshest products. We continue to elevate our capabilities and CRM advantages that drive traffic into our stores and online, including upgrading our technology, building our analytical capabilities, and developing our internal talent. This translated into a targeted promotional plan for the year and segmented marketing activities that helped deliver gross profit margins up 700 basis points for the year and 920 basis points growth for Q4 as compared to just three years prior.
The acceleration of gross margin growth in Q4, our most promotional period of the year, is further reassurance that the improved margin levels are sustainable. In fact, gross margins have now been 500-1,000 basis points higher for each of the last eight quarters versus 2019. Q4 gross margins were the highest Q4 result in our 44-year history, despite increasingly deep price discounting from our competitive set. We have already captured nearly 1.5 million Shoe Station customers into our loyalty program only a few short months after launching. Moving forward, we will continue to build our customer relationship expertise and see this as a key lever for expanding customer counts, driving traffic, and delivering top-tier shareholder returns.
Second, the rapid growth of our customer count and continued high gross margins resulted in 2022 sales growth of $225 million versus three years ago, or +21.8%. This achieved significant market share growth over the prior three-year growth period compared to our competitors' results. Specifically, looking at the competition for the three-year horizon from 2019-2022, none of the other public family footwear retailers or moderate department stores achieved half the sales growth of our corporation, and many competitors, in fact, had sales declines. Customers in Shoe Carnival and Shoe Station markets are resoundingly selecting us over the competition for the best branded footwear and accessories from their most loved brands.
Our sales growth has been balanced over the past three years, with approximately $125 million of organic sales growth and approximately $100 million of growth from acquisitions. We see this balanced approach continuing as a core part of our strategic growth roadmap to surpassing $2 billion in sales in 2028. Third, EPS of $3.96 achieved our annual profit guidance. This EPS result is growth of 171% versus three years ago and 583% earnings growth versus just five years ago. The total earnings generated during 2022 and 2021 are more than the prior 13 years of earnings combined.
I was most encouraged that our Q4 GAAP earnings per share were the most profitable Q4 in our history, despite winter storms disrupting our customers' shopping during the peak holiday period. I made a commitment to shareholders throughout the past two years that executing our strategic plans would result in doubling our operating profit and generating shareholder returns in the top tier of the sector. I'm pleased to report this has been achieved. Operating profit margins achieved the increased guidance I shared last quarter, ending the full year at 11.6% compared to 5.2% three years ago. We have now sustained operating profit margins over 11% for the last two years and successfully elevated our shareholder returns to the top tier in our segment. Our balance sheet is strong.
We had zero debt at the end of 2022, marking the 18th consecutive year of no debt. We have no debt today. As we progress into our peak back-to-school selling season, we see rapid free cash flow generation and inventory levels across categories normalizing. We are mindful of the inflationary environment and economic uncertainty in the markets. As such, we have updated our capital investment to a modest approach for the first half of 2023. Financially and operationally, this has us very well-positioned to fund accelerated growth in the second half of 2023 and into 2024, both organically and with targeted acquisitions if desirable targets become available. Turning now to a few comments about 2023 before Carl and Kerry add further detail. Our business fundamentals and long-term growth prospects are strong despite the current high inflationary environment.
We see growth of customers and growth of store counts this year. Our operating margins remain on track to be double digit for the third consecutive year, and we see the most likely outcome is that earnings per share is over $4 for 2023. Kerry will provide a detailed overview of our 2023 guidance shortly. The addition of new stores to the fleet will increasingly be the key core driver of growth in the years ahead. The new Shoe Station stores that opened in 2022 have far exceeded our historical new store opening results. Historically, successful new Shoe Carnival stores on average took six years from launch to generate double digit profit contributions for the corporation.
I'm excited to share that the new Shoe Station stores are pacing to deliver double-digit profit contribution within the first 18 months of operation, cutting down the duration of time from launch to solid profit contributor by approximately 75%. This, in turn, enables us to leverage our new stores' profit generation to self-fund rapid expansion in the years ahead. For example, the three new stores opened in 2022 can self-fund 10 stores opening this year. 10 store openings in 2023 can more than fund 20 store openings in 2024, and so on. We continue to take a methodical approach to new site selection, to M&A activity, and to capital allocation strategies to ensure top-tier profit returns for our shareholders.
As shared previously, we will surpass 400 stores this year. We have a roadmap to surpass 500 stores by 2028 through a combination of organic growth and targeted store acquisitions. We have planned store growth this year to be primarily back-loaded with a range of 10-20 additional stores in our guidance. We continue to make significant progress in our fleet modernization program, with over 40% of the fleet complete currently. Feedback from customers and vendors has been compelling for our differentiated store experience with this rollout. As such, we plan to proceed with our modernization rollout and plan to complete over 60% of the fleet by the end of fiscal 2023. As previously shared, our CFO, Kerry Jackson, is retiring in May after 35 years of service to Shoe Carnival.
I'm so thankful for Kerry's exceptional contributions and for the legacy of excellence he leaves behind in our finance organization. Last week, I announced that Mr. Erik Gast has been named our next CFO and will be joining the company in April. Erik is currently the Executive Vice President and CFO at Fleet Farm, a $1 billion-plus retailer in the Midwest. Erik's 30-plus years in finance roles, his deep retail and M&A experience, and his results orientation make him a strong addition to our management team. I look forward to Erik joining and introducing him to the investment community at our Q1 earnings call scheduled in May. With that, I'll ask Carl to discuss our performance further. Carl?
Carl Scibetta (Chief Merchandising Officer)
Thank you, Mark. As Mark highlighted, today's results are compelling evidence that our strategy continues to work. During the Q4, we again saw a shift in consumer demand as sales continued to move to the non-athletic categories. This shift was 410 basis points compared to the same period during 2019. We anticipated this move in customer demand to the non-athletic product and positioned inventory to take advantage of this fashion change. We did see improvement in product deliveries as the supply chain issues we have been experiencing the past several years continue to improve. Our outstanding team of merchants continues to collaborate closely with our vendor partners, ensuring consistent flow of products to our stores. The normalization and consistency of deliveries enables the merchant team to plan and execute appropriate monthly receipt levels.
The result will see inventories reducing as we move through the year. This reduction will further support our modernization as well as our aggressive store growth plans. Diligently managing inventory flow will ensure our stores are stocked with the most desired product offerings that are time appropriate as we move through fiscal 2023. Importantly, both aged inventory and seasonal carryover inventories are in line. We do not have a glut of distressed inventories and see no need to provide deep discounts to liquidate goods going forward. Turning to results, as I mentioned, our anticipated shift in sales from the athletic categories to the non-athletic categories continued in Q4. Comp sales in the non-athletic categories versus 2019 were up in the low 20s, and comp athletic footwear sales were up in the mid-singles.
Sales versus 2021 were down in the low singles for non-athletics, attributed to lower boot sales, and athletics were down in the low 20s. By department, women's non-athletic was up in the high singles versus 2019. Casuals drove sales up in the mid-40s, sport up in the low 30s, and dress shoes were up in the mid-20s. Women's boots were down 10%. Men's non-athletic sales were up in the high 20s versus 2019. Men's casuals drove this increase, which was up over 60% and further reflects the consumer's move to non-athletic footwear. Men's boots were up in the high singles and men's dress down in the low singles compared to 2019. In the markets we serve, Shoe Carnival continues to lead the way regarding children's footwear. Children's non-athletic sales versus 2019 were up in the mid-50s.
All children's product categories were up significantly. Casuals drove increases up almost 200%, Infants non-athletic sales were up in the mid-50s. Sales in children's athletic were up in the mid-teens. Adult athletic sales were down less than 1% versus 2019. With the fashion trends we are seeing and the improved product flow, we anticipate the continuation of strong sales results in the non-athletic categories for fiscal 2023. As we have seen for the past eight quarters, we continue to deliver excellent product margins. Q4 product margins ran up over 800 basis points versus 2019 on our result of our transformational promotional strategy. Our best-in-class CRM program continues to drive loyal customer growth.
This data provides us valuable insights into our over 32 million customers and enables us to engage with these consumers through smart, effective promotions that are not margin dilutive. The success we have seen utilizing this strategy transformed the Shoe Carnival model, and the fact that we have seen these margin levels for over two years is proof of that. As we move into fiscal 2023, the uncertain economic climate as well as cooler weather has led to a slow start of the spring season.
While our inventory position in the important categories has improved versus last year, the consumer demand has been delayed. We have seen this delay in previous years and anticipate the sales acceleration we realized then which came later in the spring-summer time period. The supply chain improvements will provide a much stronger athletic offering moving into back to school and the fall selling season. With that, I will turn the call over to Kerry for a review of our financials. Kerry?
Kerry Jackson (CFO)
Thank you, Carl. I'm excited to share with you the financial highlights from another successful quarter driven by the highest Q4 gross profit margin in our history despite a promotional holiday season. Similar to previous quarters this year, I will be comparing results versus 2019 as we see as the most relevant and normalized period prior to the start of the pandemic. Net sales in Q4 were $298.8 million and were the second-highest Q4 sales in our history, surpassed only by Q4 last year. These sales increased $50.9 million or 21.2% compared to the pre-pandemic Q4 2019, driven by sales of $24.3 million from our Shoe Station banner and a comparable store sales increase of 12.6% from Shoe Carnival banner.
This is the Q3 this year with double-digit quarterly comparable store sales increase, resulting in a year-to-date comparable store sales increase of 13.9%. Our sales results did fall below our expectations for the quarter. Total net sales increases over 2019 had been trending in the upper 20% leading into the holiday season but ended up in the low 20% increase for Q4. We attribute this to the blast of Arctic air which brought dangerous temperatures along with snow and ice to much of the nation just prior to Christmas. It was apparent to us shoppers were waiting to buy closer to Christmas in the hope of finding promotional pricing. We saw a ramp-up in sales leading into Christmas, but the severe winter weather halted the positive sales trend until after Christmas, and we lost the last-minute impulse Christmas shopper.
Our Q4 gross profit margin was 38.3%, a 920 basis point increase compared to the Q4 of 2019. This increase all came from our merchandise margin with buying distribution occupancy flat. Our record Q4 gross profit margin was 100 basis points higher than Q4 last year despite deleveraging our buying distribution occupancy costs this year by a 150 basis points increase compared to Q4 last year. SG&A expense in Q4 was $82.6 million or 28.4% of sales, compared to $65.1 million or 27.1% of sales in Q4 2019. The increase in SG&A was primarily due to investments in advertising and store-level wages, along with expenses for the Shoe Station banner acquired last year.
Q4 operating income was $28.7 million or 9.9% of sales, compared to $4.8 million or 2.0% of sales in Q4 2019. For the full year, our operating margin was 11.6% compared to 5.2% in fiscal 2019. This is in line with our expectation of annual double-digit operating margins, which are more than double our historical run rate. Net income for the Q4 of 2022 was $21.6 million or $0.79 in diluted earnings per share, an increase of 558% compared to the Q4 of 2019. This is the highest Q4 net income and diluted earnings per share on a GAAP basis in our history, or the second highest compared to the adjusted earnings in the Q4 last year.
We closed out the quarter with inventory of $390.4 million, which is up $130.9 million compared to the Q4 2019. Almost 40% of the increase in the inventory for Shoe Station stores acquired last year or opened this year and in-transit inventories. Of the remaining increase, the better part of it is children and athletic inventories. Generally, supply chains have healed in the second half this year, and with that came delivery of delayed merchandise along with the current on-order merchandise.
We have worked together with our vendor partners and are confident we have a plan that will keep our inventories fresh with compelling fashion, avoid unnecessary markdowns, but also allow us to manage our purchases in the first half in order to return our children and athletic inventories to a more typical level in September after the back-to-school selling season has completed. Today, we are initiating our fiscal 2023 guidance. Please remember that 2023 includes 53 weeks this year. The total company results will include activity for 53 weeks, but the comparable store sales will exclude the extra week.
Given the uncertainty in the economy at this time, we feel it is prudent to take into account a wide range of outcomes in our guidance with a conservative view that we will not see a stronger economy in Q2 and beyond, we will expect flat sales and EPS in fiscal 2023. Our more optimistic view is a more stable economy will lead to positive comparable store sales and more robust new store growth. Under this scenario, we expect our sales will increase approximately 4.5% and EPS will increase up to 6%. Summarizing our expectations for 2023 fiscal year, we expect sales to range from $1.26 billion-$1.32 billion. Gross profit margin will be approximately flat to last year at 37%.
Operating income margin will decrease slightly to 11.4% and diluted earnings per share to range from $3.96 to $4.20. Implied in our annual sales guidance, comparable store sales are expected to be down 2% to up 2% compared to fiscal 2022. Driven in part by decreases in inventory, we expect cash flow from operations for the year to range from $170 million-$210 million. After capital expenditures of $60 million-$70 million, we should see free cash flow between $110 million and $140 million. One final note on guidance. As Carl had mentioned earlier, we have seen a slow start to our Q1. We are currently expecting a mid-single-digit decline in net sales for Q1 and a decline in EPS compared to Q1 last year.
These Q1 expectations are factored into our annual guidance ranges. In closing, our Q4 results are a continuation of transformational profitability for Shoe Carnival compared to pre-pandemic levels. We are confident in our ability to execute on a strategy to become a multi-billion retailer with top-tier profitability in 2028. We will achieve this long-term growth through a combination of organic store expansion and modernization and selective acquisitions. My final comment today is personal. As Mark mentioned earlier, I will soon be retiring after 35 years at Shoe Carnival, 26 of those as CFO. When I joined in 1988, we had 13 stores doing about $35 million in sales. It was a small company with grand ideas. As I look back, I realize how fortunate I have been to work for and with some of the nicest, most talented, hardworking people.
The people working at Shoe Carnival has always seemed to me to be greater than sum of its parts due to the love of the company and each other. This management team, led by Mark and Carl, is no different. I owe so many people for helping me along my career. I wish I could thank each of them personally. I leave the company knowing it has never been stronger and has a bright future. I particularly want to thank my friends and coworkers in the accounting and finance areas.
We together have built an excellent team that is an asset to the company, which was most notable during the recent acquisition of Shoe Station. In a few weeks, I will hand the baton to Erik Gast. I can't think of a better person to partner with Mark, Carl, and the rest of the management team and board of directors to drive profitable growth long into the future. With that said, I'd like to open up the call for questions.
Operator (participant)
The floor is now open for your questions. To ask a question at this time, please press star one on your telephone keypad. If at any point you'd like to withdraw from the queue, please press star one again. You'll be provided the opportunity to ask one question and one further follow-up question. If you have any further questions, you may raise your hand and queue up again. We'll now take a moment to render our roster. Our first question comes from the line of Mitch Kummetz from Seaport Research Partners. Please proceed.
Mitch Kummetz (Analyst)
Yeah, thanks for taking my questions. Kerry, I want to thank you for all your help over the years. I want to wish you the best of luck. First question is on the Q4. I think in the press release you gave comp on a three-year basis. What was it year-over-year?
Kerry Jackson (CFO)
We were down 10.1% on a year-over-year basis.
Mitch Kummetz (Analyst)
Okay. For Q1, I think you mentioned that the guide is sales down mid-singles, earnings down. I'm wondering on the sales, is that kind of how you're trending quarter to date, or does the mid-singles assume some improvement over the balance of the quarter? I was hoping you could elaborate on the earnings being down year-over-year. I don't know if you expect it to be down a little, down a lot. Anything else there would be helpful.
Kerry Jackson (CFO)
Well, what we're seeing right now with the weather the way it is that we're trending a little bit higher than our expectation. As Carl said, we've seen this story before. As it warms up, we expect our sales trend to get better, but we still expect to be down at mid-single digits. We're not going to quantify yet. We just want to alert the fact that we do believe we'll have a down EPS quarter in Q1, but that we see that as in the range of the outcomes we've given for annual guidance.
Mitch Kummetz (Analyst)
Okay. Okay. Maybe let me just sneak in one more for Carl. Carl, you mentioned, I think you said for 2023 you expect stronger performance in non-athletic than athletic, but that I think by the back half, you expect athletic to kind of kick in, you know, starting with back to school. Can you just, you know, maybe provide a little bit more color on what you're seeing there between the two, particularly as it relates to inventory flows? If I'm not mistaken, I think that's gotten quite a bit better on the athletic side.
Carl Scibetta (Chief Merchandising Officer)
Sure, Mitch. You're absolutely correct. As we moved through the back-to-school time frame last year, we had a lot of disruption in deliveries on the athletic footwear side, of late deliveries and goods that actually missed the back-to-school selling period. This year, what we're experiencing, starting in the Q4 and forward, our athletic deliveries are actually coming in on time and in some cases early. We think that's an opportunity as we move out of Q2 into Q3 and throughout the fall season from the athletic standpoint.
Mitch Kummetz (Analyst)
Okay. All right. Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from the line of Sam Poser from Williams Trading. Please proceed.
Sam Poser (Equity Analyst)
Thanks for taking my questions. I might have missed it, but in Q4, what was the merch margin and the year-over-year?
Kerry Jackson (CFO)
Well, it's all the entire increase was the increase in the merch margin. Buying distribution and occupancy costs were flat.
Sam Poser (Equity Analyst)
In the quarter?
Kerry Jackson (CFO)
In the quarter.
Sam Poser (Equity Analyst)
Okay. Thanks. A little more color on the guidance. The 53rd week, how are you valuing that week in dollars?
Kerry Jackson (CFO)
It's about $14 million.
Sam Poser (Equity Analyst)
Okay. Thanks. In the Q1 guidance, I mean, how should we be thinking about that? Are you looking at the same kind of gross margin you saw in Q... I mean, how should we think about the gross margin in the Q1 relative to, you know, the current trend and so on and so forth?
Kerry Jackson (CFO)
Yeah. We're still running an elevated, gross profit, like we did last year. It really is the traffic in the stores that we're seeing a decline, in the sales.
Sam Poser (Equity Analyst)
Carl, how do you get the I mean, how are you maneuvering bringing the inventory down, or is most of this inventory down? Coming out of athletic receipts in athletic and kids receipts in the first part of the year, and then that improves. To not have to take the markdowns like in boots and stuff like that.
Carl Scibetta (Chief Merchandising Officer)
Yeah, Sam, the inventory, as I stated from a seasonal category and an age category, is well in line. In fact, the seasonal inventory carryover is less than it was a year ago. We delivered, and Kerry Jackson had pointed out, we delivered delayed product and a lot of on-time product at the same time, which elevated the inventory in both those areas. We worked very closely with all our vendors to put together a program that enables us to maneuver, sell through that inventory, keep freshness going, and get ourselves where we wanna be as we head into the back-to-school timeframe. The need for markdowns to push out inventory isn't there with the partnership we've had with our vendors.
Sam Poser (Equity Analyst)
Okay. When you were comparing Q1 earlier on the question, you were talking about year-over-year or versus 2019?
Kerry Jackson (CFO)
Anything that's referencing 2023, Q1 2023 will be against Q1 2022. You know, it was important this year in 2022 to recognize that what a comparable was. Now, the best comparable is 2019. As we progress into 2023, the 2022 results, we think, are the new benchmark, and we'll be comparing 2023 against 2022 from now on.
Sam Poser (Equity Analyst)
All right. I just had to clarify something. In Q4, the improved gross margin. In Q4 2022, what was the breakdown of the gross margin versus Q4 2021? Was it 67 basis points of merch margin, and the BDNO is flat on a year-over-year basis, or can you clarify that just year-over-year?
Kerry Jackson (CFO)
You're saying you're wanting to know Q4 of 2022 versus 2021. Is that what you said, Sam?
Mark Worden (President and CEO)
Right, on the merch margin versus BDNO.
Kerry Jackson (CFO)
The merch margin was up 250 basis points. We deleveraged BDNO by 150 basis points, and we saw a 100 basis point improvement on a GAAP basis.
Sam Poser (Equity Analyst)
Your gross margin... All right. Thank you very much. I appreciate it.
Kerry Jackson (CFO)
Yeah. Sam, you have to decide if you're talking about GAAP or adjusted because we had, you know, with the acquisition of Shoe Station, we had adjusted earnings in Q4 of 2021, which changed some of the margin numbers. The deleverage on BDNO would be the same either way.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from the line of Jim Chartier from Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. Please proceed.
Jim Chartier (Director of Research)
Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Your gross margin in Q4 was the strongest three-year performance of the year, and, you know, well above the full year improvement. Yeah, you know, I'm curious, as you lap some of the freight and distribution expenses in the first half, you know, how are we thinking about, you know, what the potential benefit from some of those tailwinds are, and then what are some of the headwinds you may be facing that offset them?
Kerry Jackson (CFO)
Well, you're absolutely right, Jim. In the first half of 2022, we saw significantly higher freight costs. That will become a tailwind for us as we go into 2023. The supply chains have healed. While fuel is still elevated, and labor for transportation is still elevated, it's not gonna go back to 2019 levels, but we will see a benefit against that on a go-forward basis against 2023.
Now, one of the things that we want to kind of take into account is that as retail more normalizes, we're leaving ourselves some opportunity within our guidance that we're gonna be become more a lower merchandise margins, slightly lower, but that'll be offset by the supply chain costs coming down also. That's why we're guiding to about a 37% gross profit margin. It doesn't mean we're changing the way we're operating. We're giving the opportunity as retail more normalizes that we may see a little more pressure on our merch margin.
Jim Chartier (Director of Research)
Okay. Your Shoe Station, you know, looks like it missed by, like, $5 million or something in Q4. You know, any color around what, you know, what happened with Shoe Station Q4 would be great. You know, does it, does it change, you know, the outlook for the business going forward?
Mark Worden (President and CEO)
Hey, Jim, it's Mark. The Shoe Station ended just slightly below what we expected at approximately $100 million. The customer count landed ahead of where we wanted, and the integration far ahead of where we wanted. As Kerry mentioned, we had, you know, weather disruption throughout, you know, some core seasons. I think I mentioned in the last call, we decided to postpone the ShoeStation.com launch to the beginning of this new fiscal as opposed to putting any risk into the Q4 of a successful launch.
That launched smoothly to begin this year in February, and we're rapidly capturing new customers, new data, and great success. On a go-forward basis, we're incredibly enthusiastic about Shoe Station. It's exceeding our internal expectations, and we've got a bright future ahead.
Jim Chartier (Director of Research)
Great. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from the line of Mitch Kummetz from Seaport Research. Please proceed.
Mitch Kummetz (Analyst)
Yeah, thanks for taking my follow-up questions. Just starting just a little bit more, maybe on the shape of the year. If Q1 sales are down mid-singles and full-year sales are flat to up 4.5%, could you kinda help me understand how we get to that? I mean, do you expect the sales growth to progressively get better over the course of the year, or do you think there's a big step change from sorta Q1-Q2? Any more color kind of on the shape of the year?
Mark Worden (President and CEO)
Hey, good morning, Mitch. It's Mark. Would love to. If you recall, last year, we had some significant supply challenges and disruptions to our athletic business in our most important part of the year, and we were disappointed with, you know, our ability to delight that athletic kid customer in back to school. As Carl alluded to, we expect significantly improved position on the product and all the brands our customers most want this back to school season. Therefore, we're expecting significant growth surrounding the back to school season, as well as leading into it, where we also had, you know, choppy supply chain challenges from some of the world's biggest vendors in that June-July timeframe. We're in a much better place for that, so we have a lot of confidence in that timeframe.
Kerry can provide some more specifics. That is the primary reason we'll see significant acceleration. As we don't really see that tied to the macroeconomic situation, that is a real benefit or tailwind for us based on challenges last year being rectified this year.
Kerry Jackson (CFO)
It's Mitch, also on. When you look at the comps, we see the comps flowing that way. We see the better opportunity being in Q2 and in early into Q3. There's also the wild card is the opening of the new stores. To get to the high end of the guidance, if we see the economy's in good shape, we're negotiating a lot of deals, that would be later this year in the second half. If we felt the economy wasn't set right, we could push those into early 2024 also. It's dependent upon our view of the economy and how many new stores we get open.
Mitch Kummetz (Analyst)
Okay. Mark, you mentioned that Shoe Station was roughly $100 million in 2022. What kind of sales projection is embedded in the 2023 guide for Shoe Station?
Mark Worden (President and CEO)
Strong growth. We have a double-digit growth plan for Shoe Station, and I think the two biggest drivers we're most excited about are new store openings. Implicit in the guidance are largely Shoe Station, as well as ShoeStation.com is now up and running and capturing growth. We've got it in the low double-digit to put a range on that, Mitch.
Mitch Kummetz (Analyst)
Okay. Carl, just a couple quick merchandising questions. I think you said for Q4, boots were weak. I'm wondering if that has continued into early Q1, particularly February. I believe that February was a pretty strong month for boots a year ago.
Carl Scibetta (Chief Merchandising Officer)
You're correct. The boot trend that we saw in Q4 did continue into the early part of the spring season as customers are looking for newness and freshness. That boot issue did continue. Frankly, we're waiting for fresh new boots for next year.
Mitch Kummetz (Analyst)
Okay. Then sandals, I don't think it's terribly important for you in Q1. I think it's a lot more important for you in Q2. I'm guessing sandals probably not off to a very good start in March. I'm curious if that's the case. Then remind me, I feel like a year ago, April was not the best month weather-wise. I'm wondering if that's an easy compare on the sandal business, for April and then maybe the balance of the quarter. I guess that is the balance of the quarter, so.
Carl Scibetta (Chief Merchandising Officer)
Sure. Sandals... Yeah, sandals have... You know, a good majority of our stores are in the Midwest and in the North, and you've seen how bad the weather is in those areas, so that directly affects sandal business. In some of the areas where we've seen very few areas of decent weather, sandals seem to be performing. Last year, absolutely, it came late. Sandal business really didn't kick in till the very end of April, and in through the May timeframe in the Q2. You know, based on weather, that certainly could happen again this year.
Mitch Kummetz (Analyst)
Okay. Last thing, just housekeeping. I know, Carrie, Sam asked you about the 53rd week impact on sales. Is there any impact on earnings for the year?
Kerry Jackson (CFO)
It's immaterial. There's a slight benefit to EPS, but it's not material to the overall guidance.
Mitch Kummetz (Analyst)
Okay. All right. Thanks again.
Operator (participant)
Our final question comes from the line of Sam Poser from Williams Trading. Please proceed.
Sam Poser (Equity Analyst)
Well, I guess the question is, You've said 10-20 new stores. I wonder. Like, Is 15 new stores baked into the guidance? Is 10 on the range? I mean, or is the range of the guidance reflective of the new store count?
Kerry Jackson (CFO)
Sam, there's a range of outcomes that we have built into the high end of the guidance, between... What we try to do is, at the high end, what the comps would be and the number of new stores. The... One of the biggest factors about new stores is when do they open in the year and how productive would they be in sales for the year. When you look at the high end, it's both the comps and higher new store count.
Sam Poser (Equity Analyst)
Okay. Lastly, Kerry, it's been a pleasure. I wish you all the best in your retirement.
Kerry Jackson (CFO)
Sam, I appreciate that, and I also appreciate Mitch's kind words. Jim, it's you too also, it's been a pleasure working with all three of you.
Operator (participant)
I would now like to turn the call over to Mark Worden for closing remarks.
Mark Worden (President and CEO)
Thank you again, all, for joining us for today's Q4 call. I look forward to discussing Q1 results with you in May. Again, we wish Kerry all the best for a wonderful retirement after 35 years. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.