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SHOE CARNIVAL INC (SCVL)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 FY2024 (ended Feb 1, 2025) delivered GAAP EPS $0.53 and adjusted EPS $0.54, at the high end of guidance; net sales were $262.9M amid a retail calendar headwind and nonevent period softness. Merchandise margin rose +35 bps, while gross margin fell to 34.9% on BD&O deleverage .
  • Versus Wall Street: EPS beat consensus ($0.54 vs $0.44) while revenue missed ($262.9M vs $275.9M). Management attributed strength to Rogan’s synergy capture and disciplined SG&A/marketing, offset by boot weakness and calendar shifts. Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
  • Strategic catalyst: the Shoe Station rebannering plan is expanded to 175 stores over 24 months (51% of fleet), with a first-year P&L investment of $20–$25M (~$0.65 EPS impact) and expected 2–3 year payback; dividend raised 11% to $0.15/quarter .
  • 2025 outlook: Net sales $1.15–$1.23B and GAAP EPS $1.60–$2.10 reflect rebannering downtime, tariff uncertainty, and nonevent period pressure at Shoe Carnival; management expects gross margin to remain above 35% .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “We delivered EPS at the high end of our guidance for the quarter” driven by Shoe Station’s industry-leading performance and accelerated Rogan’s synergy capture; adjusted EPS reached $0.54, GAAP $0.53 .
  • Successful in-market rebannering test: 10 converted stores generated “sales over 10% higher,” expanded margins, and double-digit profit increases, validating scaling Shoe Station nationally .
  • Cash generation and balance sheet strength: FY2024 operating cash flow $102.6M; ended year with no debt; cash + marketable securities ~$123.1M .

What Went Wrong

  • Nonevent period softness persisted, with Q4 comparable store sales down 6.3%, and boot demand weak on unseasonably warm weather, pressuring revenue and gross margin (BD&O deleverage) .
  • Retail calendar shift (loss of 53rd week) created ~$20M sales headwind and ~$0.10 EPS headwind vs prior-year Q4, complicating YoY comparisons .
  • 2025 guidance widened given tariff uncertainty and volatility; management flagged continued mid- to high-single declines from lower-income customers in Shoe Carnival during nonevent periods .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 FY2023 (14 weeks)Q3 FY2024Q4 FY2024 (13 weeks)
Revenue ($USD Millions)$280.2 $306.9 $262.9
Diluted EPS (GAAP, $USD)$0.57 $0.70 $0.53
Diluted EPS (Adjusted, $USD)$0.59 $0.71 $0.54
Gross Profit Margin (%)35.6% 36.0% 34.9% (35.0% adj)
SG&A ($USD Millions)$79.7 $85.9 $77.6
SG&A as % of Net Sales (%)28.5% 28.0% 29.6%

Actual vs Consensus (Q4 FY2024):

MetricActualConsensus# of Estimates
Revenue ($USD Millions)$262.9 $275.9*2*
EPS (Adjusted, $USD)$0.54 $0.44*3*

Values retrieved from S&P Global*.

KPIs and Selected Drivers:

KPIQ4 FY2024
Comparable Store Sales (%)-6.3% (nonevent period declines)
Merchandise Margin (bps vs PY)+35 bps
Rogan’s Revenue Contribution ($USD Millions)~$16.5
Net Income ($USD Millions)$14.7
Cash + Marketable Securities ($USD Millions)~$123.1
Store Count431 total; 346 Shoe Carnival, 57 Shoe Station, 28 Rogan’s (as of Mar 20, 2025)

Note: Management noted 430 stores including newly rebannered at FY-end; press release lists 431 as of Mar 20, 2025 .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net Sales ($USD Billions)FY2025N/A$1.15–$1.23 First issuance
GAAP EPS ($USD)FY2025N/A$1.60–$2.10 First issuance
Gross Margin (%)FY2025N/A“Above 35%” expectation First issuance
CapEx ($USD Millions)FY2025N/A$45–$60 (incl. $35–$45 for rebanners/store growth) First issuance
Rebannering P&L Investment ($USD Millions)FY2025N/A$20–$25; ~($0.65) EPS impact New program
Q1 EPS Impact from Rebannering ($USD per quarter)Q1 FY2025N/A($0.15)–($0.20) New detail
Dividend (Quarterly)Ongoing$0.135$0.15 (+11.1%) Raised

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 FY2024)Previous Mentions (Q3 FY2024)Current Period (Q4 FY2024)Trend
Rebannering to Shoe StationBegan small-scale tests; strong BTS momentum; increased FY2024 sales guidance Expanded to 10 stores; early results >10% lift; plan +25 stores in 1H FY2025 Scale up: 50–75 stores in FY2025; 175 total over 24 months; 51% of fleet Accelerating
Tariffs/MacroNot a focus in Q2 PRMix exposure <50% China; monitoring; pricing discipline Assumes modest price increases; wider guidance range; monitoring Vietnam/China Elevated uncertainty
Weather/Product (Boots)Strong BTS; category strength; no boot commentary Warm weather delayed boot season; boots down >30% Q3 Boot softness lingered into Q4; merchandise margin +35 bps Improving when colder, still headwind
SG&A/MarketingLeveraged on higher sales; 27.1% of sales Digital-first flex lowered selling costs; SG&A down YoY SG&A $77.6M; 29.6% of sales; deleverage on lower sales Tight control; flexible spend
M&A (Rogan’s)In-line sales; integration underway Synergies accelerated 6 months early; >$1M captured Exceeded $10M OI target by >20%; tax credits; $16.5M Q4 sales Ahead of plan
Balance Sheet/CashNo debt; strong cash position Cash + marketable ~$91M No debt; cash + marketable ~$123M; CFO highlights $100M+ CFO Strengthening

Management Commentary

  • “Within 24 months, 51% of our current store fleet will be operated under the Shoe Station banner.”
  • “Year 1 investments to scale this plan up total to approximately $0.65 reduction in EPS this year… pay back fully in a 2- to 3-year horizon.”
  • “Q4 net sales totaled $262.9 million… merchandise margins were higher in the quarter by 35 basis points.”
  • “We have now provided a dividend for 52 consecutive quarters and increased our dividend for 11 straight years.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Rebannering cadence: Roughly half of the 50–75 conversions before back-to-school and half after; aim for 35–40 before BTS; avoid peak holiday disruptions .
  • Tariffs: Vendors absorbing some costs; expecting mid-single-digit item-specific increases; guidance excludes double-digit pass-throughs from Vietnam/China; would revisit if conditions change .
  • Margin outlook: Expect FY2025 gross margin above 35% despite BD&O deleverage; quarter deleverage greater when sales planned down more .
  • Comps outlook: FY2025 comps track total sales range (up 2% to down 4%); Q1 comps expected weaker given nonevent periods and rebanner downtime .

Estimates Context

  • Q4 FY2024 consensus EPS was $0.44 vs actual adjusted $0.54 (GAAP $0.53), a significant beat driven by Rogan’s synergies and merchandising margin capture despite BD&O deleverage and boot softness. Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
  • Q4 FY2024 consensus revenue was $275.9M vs actual $262.9M, a miss largely explained by loss of the 53rd week, nonevent period demand, and weather impacts (boots) . Values retrieved from S&P Global*.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Shoe Station scaling is the core equity story: 175 rebanners over 24 months to >50% of fleet, with targeted >10% sales lift and >20% profit contribution increase per store by 2027; near-term EPS drag (~$0.65) but rapid payback (2–3 years) .
  • Operating leverage headwinds (BD&O) will persist in low-demand periods; management offsets via merchandise margin discipline and flexible digital-first SG&A .
  • Rogan’s acquisition outperformed initial targets (>20% OI above $10M; tax credits), providing incremental earnings resiliency in 2025 .
  • 2025 guidance is intentionally wide given tariff/macro uncertainty and rebanner timing; gross margin expected to remain above 35% .
  • Dividend growth and zero-debt balance sheet support shareholder returns and strategic optionality during transformation .
  • Near-term trading: Expect pressure around nonevent periods/Q1 from rebannering downtime and comps; event periods (BTS/holiday) should improve as Shoe Station mix scales .
  • Watch list: Tariff developments (Vietnam/China), boot season normalization, cadence of store conversions, and early Station performance in new states for validation of national scale .
Disclaimer: Wall Street consensus values marked with * were retrieved from S&P Global.