3I
374Water Inc. (SCWO)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2025 revenue was $0.54M, up 72% year over year, driven by a full-scale customer demonstration that added $0.376M; net loss widened to $3.68M as opex rose with stock-based comp, legal and recruiting costs .
- Management reiterated line of sight to $4–$6M FY2025 revenue and highlighted multiple 2025 deployments (OC San AS6, DoD Detroit demo, initial Waste Destruction Services at a TSDF), and signed a WDS term sheet with Crystal Clean to host AirSCWO at an Ohio RCRA Part B TSDF facility .
- OC San deployment timing was pushed “a few months” to accommodate upgrades and permitting; company still plans FAT, mobilization and commissioning in 2025 (approx. $1.3M revenue milestone) .
- Regulatory PFAS tailwinds intensified after EPA’s May actions, which management expects to catalyze demand across municipal, federal, and industrial markets—an ongoing stock reaction catalyst narrative .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Signed a WDS term sheet with Crystal Clean to conduct waste destruction operations at a RCRA Part B TSDF; management’s commercialization push broadened with executive and board additions .
- Demonstrated 99.9999% PFAS destruction in AFFF in peer-reviewed data; reinforced efficacy at commercial scale and supported WDS launch plans .
- Management reaffirmed revenue trajectory: “We have line of sight to generating $4 million to $6 million in revenue” in FY2025 and outlined scalable models (AS1/AS6/AS30/AS100+) to address diverse customer needs .
- Quote: “We believe we are entering a pivotal phase for scaling our technology and the business… we have line of sight to generating $4 million to $6 million in revenue” — CEO Chris Gannon .
What Went Wrong
- Total operating expenses rose 106% to $3.91M, press release citing G&A +$1.2M while CFO remarks cited +$0.9M, indicating a discrepancy likely tied to classification or rounding; professional fees increased ~$0.5M (settlement and recruiting) and compensation rose ~$0.6M .
- Cash fell to $6.88M from $10.65M QoQ as operating cash outflow was $3.49M; working capital declined to $8.7M (vs. $11.5M at FY2024) .
- OC San AS6 timeline slipped “a few months” due to upgrades and permitting—pushing the commissioning window and potentially delaying revenue recognition versus the February schedule .
Financial Results
Quarterly trend vs prior two quarters (oldest → newest)
Notes: Q4 2024 filing provided full-year figures only; quarterly Q4 metrics were not disclosed in the 8-K press release or call materials .
Year-over-year for Q1
Drivers: Q1 2025 included a full-scale customer demonstration adding $376,000 in services revenue, offset by ~$162,000 lower equipment manufacturing revenue; opex stepped up on stock-based comp, legal settlement and recruiting fees .
KPIs and operational context
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We believe we are entering a pivotal phase for scaling our technology and the business… we have line of sight to generating $4 million to $6 million in revenue [FY2025]” — CEO Chris Gannon .
- “On the AirSCWO 30 we project that the revenue potential for that unit will be between $12 million and $20 million on an annual basis” — CFO Russell Kline (on DAAS unit economics) .
- “While we still plan to begin mobilizing equipment to OCSAN in June, full system installation is likely to be delayed by a few months to complete further upgrades to the AS system and as OCSAN secures requisite permits” — CEO Chris Gannon .
- “Our technology has consistently shown PFAS >99.9999% destruction and removal efficiency operating at commercial scale” — CEO Chris Gannon .
Q&A Highlights
- TSDF DAAS economics: AS30 annual revenue potential projected at $12–$20M depending on material and utilization, reinforcing a significant recurring revenue pathway .
- DoD demo timing: Mobilization in June, on-site in July; management expects multi-month demos and potential streamlined contracting (“golden ticket”) thereafter .
- North Carolina AFFF contract: Initial 1,000 gallons pickup begins within a month; phased expansion could reach 29,000 gallons .
- Manufacturing capacity: Current ability to build 2–4 systems concurrently; Orlando facility supports near-term scaling .
- Guidance clarification: OC San installation pushed “a few months” for upgrades/permitting; still aiming to commission in 2025 .
Estimates Context
- Coverage is limited. No published consensus for Q1 2025 was available via S&P Global; Q3 2024 had one estimate for EPS at $(0.02)* and revenue at $0.0*, both with 1 estimate* [GetEstimates].
- Implications: Minimal sell-side coverage constrains traditional “beat/miss” framing. Near-term estimate revisions will likely center on timing of OC San commissioning, TSDF DAAS ramp, and DoD demo conversion.
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Commercial momentum: Q1 revenue inflected on services; Crystal Clean TSDF term sheet, DoD demo timing, and OC San commissioning are tangible catalysts for the next 2–3 quarters .
- Execution watch: Track OC San FAT/mobilization milestones and permitting; ~$1.3M revenue tied to 2025 schedule offers near-term validation .
- DAAS economics: AS30 unit-level DAAS potential ($12–$20M annual) underscores the attractiveness of recurring service revenue as TSDF partnerships scale .
- Regulatory tailwinds: EPA’s PFAS actions strengthen the demand narrative across municipal/federal/industrial markets; positioning favors solutions with proven PFAS destruction efficacy .
- Cash runway and funding: Cash at $6.9M; management evaluating strategic capital options—monitor for financing or strategic partnerships to support scale-up .
- Estimate dynamics: Sparse coverage limits beat/miss frameworks; investors should focus on operational milestones, contract conversions, and DAAS ramp to calibrate revenue trajectories [GetEstimates].
- Risk/concern: Opex intensity (stock comp, legal, recruiting) and timeline slips at OC San could push revenue recognition; watch for manufacturing/supply chain updates and schedule adherence .