Sign in
VS

Vivid Seats Inc. (SEAT)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Mixed Q1: Revenue of $164.0M declined 14% YoY and 18% QoQ; Adjusted EBITDA of $21.7M fell 44% YoY and 36% QoQ as volume and marketing inefficiency pressured profitability .
  • Top-line missed S&P Global consensus by ~2.7% ($164.0M vs $168.6M), while S&P’s Primary EPS “actual” was $0.30 versus -$0.29 consensus; however, GAAP net loss was -$9.8M (net loss attributable to Class A -$5.9M), highlighting a divergence between GAAP EPS attribution and S&P’s Primary EPS construct [GetEstimates; S&P Global]*.
  • Competitive intensity and an unannounced change in Google’s performance marketing reporting reduced marketing efficiency industry-wide; management suspended FY25 guidance and expects continued near-term pressure despite easier comps in 2H25 .
  • Offsets/catalysts: take rate remained healthy at 16.3% (near-term outlook 15.5–16.0%), loyalty/Game Center engagement uplifted cohort behavior, and the United Airlines partnership should contribute in 2H25, but share losses in performance marketing channels are a key overhang .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Take rate resilience: Marketplace take rate rose to 16.3% (+70 bps YoY), with near-term expectation at 15.5–16.0% .
    • Engagement ROI: New customers who interacted with Game Center showed a 55% higher repeat rate and 35% higher GOV in Q1, driven by fan-focused in-app enhancements and campaigns (e.g., Beyoncé, Bad Bunny, March Madness) .
    • Strategic pipeline intact: United Airlines MileagePlus partnership expected to drive accretive volume starting in 2H25; ongoing SkyBox adoption underpins seller-side stickiness .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Volume deterioration and share pressure: Marketplace GOV down 20% YoY to $820M; total marketplace orders down 20% YoY; management attributed declines to performance marketing inefficiency and competitive pressure .
    • Guidance withdrawn: FY25 guidance suspended amid macro variability, soft industry trends, and atypical performance marketing changes; management expects continued near-term pressure .
    • Cash generation and working capital: Negative operating cash flow in Q1 driven by seasonal items (inventory build, bonuses) and volume-led float pressure; management now expects “fairly limited” full-year cash generation .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenues ($USD Millions)$186.605 $199.813 $164.023
Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)$9.196 $(4.415) $(9.788)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$34.077 $34.243 $21.721
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %18.3% (calc: 34.077/186.605) 17.1% (calc: 34.243/199.813) 13.2% (calc: 21.721/164.023)
Marketplace GOV ($USD Millions)$871.726 $994.377 $820.359
Marketplace Take Rate %17.5% N/A16.3%

Q1 2025 vs S&P Global consensus:

  • Revenue: $164.0M actual vs $168.6M estimate (miss) [GetEstimates; S&P Global]*
  • Primary EPS: $0.30 actual vs -$0.29 estimate (beat) [GetEstimates; S&P Global]*
    Note: GAAP net loss was -$9.8M and net loss attributable to Class A was -$5.9M; the S&P “Primary EPS” construct may differ from GAAP EPS attribution .

Segment/KPI details:

  • Owned property revenues -14% YoY; private label revenues -27% YoY (absolute dollars not disclosed) .
  • Marketplace orders -20% YoY; average order size flat YoY; industry AOS down a few points .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Marketplace GOVFY 2025$3.7–$4.1B Suspended Withdrawn
RevenuesFY 2025$730–$810M Suspended Withdrawn
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025$110–$150M Suspended Withdrawn
Marketplace Take RateNear-term“15.5% or higher” (prior framework) 15.5%–16.0% Maintained/narrowed

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024)Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Performance marketing (Google/algos)High intensity; competitor uneconomic volume; Board addition from Google to aid efficiency Continued intensity implied into 4Q; revising outlook Unannounced Google reporting change split auctions “1 per page to 2,” hit efficiency; industry recalibrating Worsened near term
Competitive intensity/shareCompetitive pressure; prioritizing unit economics; stickiness focus Expect continued intensity in 2025 Performance marketing channel share under pressure vs a scaled peer; assuming pressure persists Persistent headwind
Concert supply/mix2024 “digestion year” with softer stadium mix; expect normalizing 2025 2025 outlook initially positive; awaiting on-sale visibility Choppy start (soft Feb–Mar; bounce in Apr); cautious on consumer and supply timing Mixed/choppy
Take rate strategyStrong (17.5% in Q3); balancing volume vs rate Not explicitly quantified; healthy unit economics 16.3% Q1; guiding 15.5–16% near term; avoid over-prioritizing rate Normalizing
International expansionPrepping international launch; TAM expansion European launch kicked off in 4Q24 Early signs positive; building supply/demand/tech Early build
PartnershipsBrand/content partnerships; Vegas.com synergies United Airlines pipeline noted United MileagePlus to contribute in 2H25 (130M+ members) Positive
Regulatory transparency——Supports price transparency (EO, Ticket Act, FTC order) Neutral/positive
Cash conversion60–70% in normalized growth; 2024 pressured by float reversal —Cash generation likely “fairly limited” in 2025 given lower GOV/EBITDA and fixed cash obligations Weaker near term

Management Commentary

  • Strategy and environment: “We delivered $820 million of marketplace GOV, $164 million of revenues, and $22 million of adjusted EBITDA… we fell short of our expectations… robust competitive intensity [and] softening industry trends amidst consumer uncertainty.”
  • Product/engagement: “Upcoming app enhancements will… elevate the customer experience… Game Center… repeat rate for new customers… 55% higher… GOV was 35% higher for new customers that had interacted with Game Center.”
  • Partnerships: “We look forward to launching our new partnership with United Airlines… we expect this partnership to start contributing in the second half of 2025.”
  • Performance marketing: “Unannounced [Google] change… splitting the auctions from 1 per page to 2 per page… industry saw inefficiency that persisted for a few weeks.”
  • Outlook/take rate: “We anticipate near-term take rates will be in the 15.5% to 16% range… when we were getting into that 17% range, we were probably overprioritizing take rate relative to volume.”
  • Guidance: “With elevated uncertainty… we are suspending guidance for fiscal year 2025.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Performance marketing and competition: Google reporting changes drove temporary inefficiency; competitive pressure in paid channels likely persists, contributing to share losses; strategy remains to protect unit economics while laying groundwork to recapture share .
  • Industry trends: Concerts volatile MoM; sports lagging due to tough comps; theater strong; April showed some bounce but management remains cautious given macro uncertainty and timing of tour on-sales .
  • Financial guardrails: Management balancing marketing spend vs EBITDA given tight trade-offs; expects limited full-year cash generation in 2025 due to weaker float and fixed cash obligations (interest, capex) .
  • International/TAM: Early positive reads post-European launch; continued build across marketplace dimensions; diversification away from pressured performance marketing channels via partnerships and social/AI-driven creative .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 revenue: $164.0M actual vs $168.6M consensus (miss of ~$4.6M, ~2.7%) [GetEstimates; S&P Global]*.
  • Q1 2025 Primary EPS: $0.30 actual vs -$0.29 consensus (beat); note divergence from GAAP net loss and Class A attribution [GetEstimates; S&P Global]*.
  • Implications: Given volume declines (-20% orders), guidance suspension, and continued competitive intensity, Street models likely revise FY25 revenue/EBITDA lower; near-term take rate outlook (15.5–16%) supports unit economics but won’t offset volume pressure .

Values marked with an asterisk are retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Guidance suspension is a clear negative catalyst; expect estimate cuts and elevated uncertainty until performance marketing normalizes and volume stabilizes .
  • Structural pressure in performance marketing channels (including recent Google changes) and aggressive competitor spend are driving share loss; watch for signs of efficiency recovery and alternative distribution scaling (United, social) .
  • Healthy take rate (16.3%) with a 15.5–16.0% outlook underpins margins, but EBITDA leverage is capped if order volumes remain down double digits .
  • Engagement and loyalty are working (Game Center uplift), offering a longer-term mix shift to higher-ROI cohorts; continued investment in product personalization is prudent .
  • Liquidity is adequate ($199M cash; $393M debt), but 2025 cash generation likely “fairly limited”; capital allocation skewed to selective buybacks vs. M&A given valuation and cash constraints .
  • Near-term trading setup: negative sentiment from guidance withdrawal and volume trends; potential relief in 2H on easier comps, United contribution, and if concert on-sales improve .
  • Medium-term thesis hinges on share stabilization, diversified demand channels, international build, and seller-side moat via SkyBox; monitor sequential progress on orders, private label trajectory, and marketing ROI .

Additional Relevant Press Releases (Q1 2025)

  • Corporate/brand initiatives: MLB Fan Loyalty Report (Mar 10), NIL and wearable tech partnerships (Mar 25/28), Trending Music Festival Guide (Apr 10), and Q1 earnings date (Apr 24) support brand engagement and funnel awareness but no material financial updates disclosed .

References:

  • Q1 2025 press release and financials:
  • Q1 2025 8-K and exhibits:
  • Q1 2025 earnings call transcript (prepared remarks and Q&A):
  • Prior quarter benchmarks: Q4 2024 press release ; Q3 2024 press release and call
  • Estimates: S&P Global consensus and “Primary EPS” [GetEstimates; S&P Global]*

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.