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Vivid Seats Inc. (SEAT)·Q3 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2024 revenues were $186.6M (down 1% YoY), Adjusted EBITDA $34.1M (up 2% YoY), and Marketplace GOV $871.7M (down 13% YoY) as concert supply and venue/artist mix created a temporary headwind; take rate rose to 17.5%, supporting unit economics .
  • Management cut FY 2024 guidance: GOV to $3.8–$4.0B (from $4.0–$4.3B), revenues to $760–$780M (from $810–$830M), and Adjusted EBITDA to $145–$155M (from $160–$170M), citing concert supply and continued marketing intensity in Q4 .
  • Strategic execution advanced: SkyBox Drive exited beta with 100+ users onboarded and a sizable waitlist; Vegas.com synergies ramped via cross-listed inventory and cross-sell campaigns, and international launch remains on track by year-end .
  • Management expects concerts to normalize and grow in 2025 (return of stadium tours); sports remained strong in 2024, reinforcing that headwinds are supply-driven, not demand-driven .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Elevated take rate and disciplined pricing drove strong unit economics despite lower GOV; Adjusted EBITDA rose YoY with an 18% margin in Q3 .
  • Seller ecosystem strength: SkyBox Drive launched out of beta, 100+ users onboarded with hundreds more on the waitlist, reinforcing professional seller stickiness on industry-leading SkyBox ERP .
  • Synergies from Vegas.com: cross-listed inventory now run-rating ~1% of marketplace GOV and cross-sell campaigns show ~50% open rates, converting Vegas customers to Vivid Seats users in home markets .

Selected management quotes:

  • “We delivered $187 million of revenues and $34 million of adjusted EBITDA, including an 18% adjusted EBITDA margin.”
  • “Skybox Drive has exited its beta phase… onboarding more than one hundred users, with hundreds more on our waitlist.”
  • “Orders from cross-listed inventory are run rating at approximately 1% of our marketplace GOV… nearly 50% of cross-sell e‑mails being opened.”

What Went Wrong

  • Concert supply digested in 2024: sharp reduction in stadium tours and several large tour cancellations weighed on GOV; average order size fell 11% YoY and total marketplace orders declined 2% YoY .
  • Competitive environment: high marketing intensity from select competitors pressured performance marketing unit economics, leading SEAT to prioritize profitability over uneconomic volume .
  • FY 2024 guide cut across GOV, revenues, and Adjusted EBITDA reflects softer concert slate persisting into early Q4 and uncertain timing/magnitude of 2025 on-sales .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024
Revenues ($USD Millions)$190.9 $198.3 $186.6
Marketplace GOV ($USD Millions)$1,028.5 $998.1 $871.7
Net Income ($USD Millions)$10.7 $(1.2) $9.2
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$38.9 $44.2 $34.1
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)≥20% 22% 18%
Take Rate (%)15.6% 17.0% 17.5%

Segment/KPI breakdown:

KPIQ1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024
Total Marketplace Orders (‘000)2.876 3.097 2.969
Total Resale Orders (‘000)99 101 116
GOV Cancellations Impact ($USD Millions)$18.3 $21.2 $35.4

Notes:

  • EPS was not disclosed in the Q1/Q2/Q3 press releases/8-Ks; company emphasizes net income and Adjusted EBITDA in results .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Marketplace GOV ($B)FY 2024$4.0–$4.3 $3.8–$4.0 Lowered
Revenues ($M)FY 2024$810–$830 $760–$780 Lowered
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)FY 2024$160–$170 $145–$155 Lowered

Rationale: softer concert supply and expected continued marketing intensity in Q4; awaiting mass 2025 on-sale visibility .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
Concert Supply/MixQ1/Q2: 2023’s stadium-heavy comps; 2024 shows skew to arenas/amphitheaters; cancellations impacted top-of-card artists Q3: digestion year; fewer stadium tours; AOS down; cancellations hit GOV; expect normalization and growth in 2025 Improving in 2025 (expected)
Competitive Marketing IntensityQ1/Q2: elevated intensity; SEAT leaning into repeat/loyalty, avoiding uneconomic volume Q3: intensity persists; SEAT prioritizes unit economics over marginal uneconomic volume Persistent headwind
Take Rate DynamicsQ2: take rate up to 17.0% via pricing discipline and mix Q3: 17.5%; Q4 may compress on high-AOS events (e.g., World Series) mix Elevated vs 2023; near-term mix-sensitive
Vegas.com SynergiesQ1/Q2: cross-listing and cross-sell with ~50% open rate; strong acquisition channel Q3: cross-listed run-rate ~1% GOV; cross-sell converting to incremental orders Building
International ExpansionQ1/Q2: platform build, launch by year-end; leverageable investments Q3: on track to launch in select geographies by year-end Near-term launch
Seller Tools (SkyBox Drive)Q2: nearing formal launch; hundreds waitlist; monetization not in guidance Q3: exited beta; 100+ onboarded; exclusive to SkyBox ERP Scaling adoption
Sports Strength/Women’s Sports/SoccerQ1/Q2: robust sports GOV; women’s sports milestone; soccer tailwinds (Messi, Copa) Q3: sports strong YoY; supports demand resilience vs concert supply Strong

Management Commentary

  • “Compared to record concert years in 2022 and 2023, we would consider 2024 as a digestion year for concert industry supply… mix shift… away from stadium tour activity was a short-term headwind that will soon abate.”
  • “We delivered $187 million of revenues and $34 million of adjusted EBITDA… These results demonstrate our ability to deliver strong unit economics even when market factors are less favorable.”
  • “We announced a new strategic partnership with… IM Athlete… promoting key brand differentiators… growing our brand awareness in new channels.”
  • “Orders from cross-listed inventory are run rating at approximately 1% of our marketplace GOV… cross-sell… converting to incremental orders and new Vivid Seats customers.”
  • “SkyBox Drive… exited its beta phase… onboarding over 100 users and… a sizable waitlist.”
  • “We now expect 2024 Marketplace GOV… $3.8B to $4.0B, revenues… $760M to $780M and adjusted EBITDA… $145M to $155M.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Take rate and Q4 outlook: Elevated in Q2/Q3; Q4 take rate could decline due to high-AOS World Series mix; SEAT maintains flexibility to balance take rate and volume .
  • Event mix cycles: Variance across concerts, sports, and theater leads to oscillations; sports had favorable matchups (CFP, World Series), theater lapped last year’s on-sales; concerts soft vs strong 2023 slate .
  • 2025 concert calendar: Early signals (Coldplay, Oasis) positive but not yet “robust”; expectation remains for stadium tour strength and normalization .
  • Competitive intensity: Performance marketing remains pressured by select competitors pursuing uneconomic volume; SEAT focuses on loyalty-driven repeat and differentiated products .
  • Free cash flow conversion: 2023 benefited from WC tailwinds (85–90% conversion), 2024 below target due to WC headwinds; normalized 60–70% conversion expected with growth returning in 2025 .
  • Capital allocation: Continue evaluating buybacks versus strategic M&A given share price and multiples; buybacks compelling when attractively priced .

Estimates Context

  • We attempted to retrieve S&P Global consensus for Q3 2024 and prior quarters; consensus data was unavailable at the time of this report due to an API limit, so we cannot present revenue/EPS vs-consensus comparisons. If consensus becomes available, we would benchmark Q3 revenues ($186.6M) and Adjusted EBITDA ($34.1M) against Street expectations to assess magnitude of beat/miss .
  • Given the guide cut and commentary on concert supply, we expect analysts to lower FY revenue and EBITDA estimates and potentially modestly trim near-term quarterly assumptions until 2025 concert on-sale visibility improves .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term softness is supply-driven, not demand-driven: concerts digesting post-2023 stadium slate; sports are strong and theater steady, supporting demand resilience .
  • Pricing discipline is working: take rate up to 17.5% in Q3; expect near-term mix sensitivity (World Series) but unit economics remain solid .
  • FY 2024 reset de-risks expectations: GOV, revenues, and Adjusted EBITDA guidance lowered; watch for 2025 concert calendar on-sales as a key catalyst .
  • Structural advantages compounding: SkyBox Drive adoption fortifies seller stickiness; Vegas.com synergies scaling; international launch imminent—each supports medium-term growth .
  • Cash conversion should normalize with growth: 60–70% conversion expected in a normalized growth environment; 2024 WC headwinds are cyclical .
  • Capital deployment optionality: buybacks attractive at current levels; M&A evaluated against strict strategic/financial hurdles .
  • Trading lens: Near-term sentiment tied to concert on-sale cadence and competitive intensity; medium-term thesis hinges on 2025 concert normalization plus scaling of seller tools, synergies, and international expansion .