Vivid Seats Inc. (SEAT)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q4 2024 revenue was $199.8M, up 1% year over year, while Marketplace GOV declined 11% to $994.4M and adjusted EBITDA was $34.2M, down 2% year over year; the quarter posted a net loss of $4.4M versus net income of $28.5M a year ago .
• Management introduced FY 2025 guidance with Marketplace GOV of $3.7–$4.1B, revenue of $730–$810M, and adjusted EBITDA of $110–$150M, emphasizing back-half growth as comps ease and partnerships ramp .
• Competitive intensity in performance marketing channels was a key headwind; management prioritized unit economics (take rate 16.6% in Q4) and highlighted repeat order mix reaching 61% as a durable advantage .
• Strategic catalysts include the European launch (starting in the U.K.), monetization of SkyBox Drive (TAM ~$10M), and the United Airlines MileagePlus partnership (launch later in 2025), all designed to drive accretive volume insulated from paid channels .
• S&P Global consensus estimates were unavailable at the time of analysis due to request limits; we are unable to quantify beats/misses versus Street expectations for Q4 and FY 2024 [GetEstimates error].

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Repeat-order flywheel strengthened: enrolled members made repeat orders 2–3x as often as non-enrolled, and repeat order mix reached 61% in 2024, supporting lower marketing costs and resilient unit economics .
• Game Center engagement rose materially: app downloads attributable to Game Center approximately doubled year over year and quarter over quarter in Q4, driving incremental GOV with limited marketing spend .
• Synergies and partnerships building: cross-listing and cross-selling synergies from Vegas.com ramped; announced United Airlines MileagePlus partnership to tap captive audiences and personalize content via Connective Media later this year .

What Went Wrong

• Top-line pressure from supply and cancellations: Marketplace GOV fell 11% YoY to $994.4M, with $21.1M negative impact from event cancellations in Q4 (vs. $9.8M in Q4 2023); concert pipeline turned neutral to negative in recent weeks .
• Profitability compression and net loss: adjusted EBITDA dipped 2% YoY to $34.2M, and the quarter recorded a net loss of $4.4M versus $28.5M prior-year; CFO also referenced ~$33M adjusted EBITDA in remarks, slightly below the press release figure .
• Heightened competitive intensity: performance marketing channels remained particularly competitive in 2H24, leading management to maintain flexibility to invest more in marketing and tech in 2025 to defend share .

Financial Results

Segment/KPIs

Non-GAAP adjustments (selected items from reconciliation, Q4 2024):

• Equity-based compensation: $12.144M
• Sales tax liability accrual: $3.147M
• Unrealized FX losses: $3.790M
• Adjustment of TRA liabilities: $(6.166)M
• Depreciation and amortization: $12.584M

Guidance Changes

FY 2025 Guidance (introduced in Q4 2024)

FY 2024 Guidance (revised in Q3 2024)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “We are encouraged by the performance of our investments that continue to drive differentiation and efficiency in our marketplace… we have kicked off our European launch… new partnership with United Airlines where we are leveraging our infrastructure and tapping into new audiences.” — CEO Stan Chia .
• “In the fourth quarter, we delivered $200 million of revenues… and $33 million of adjusted EBITDA… we delivered strong unit economics while continuing to invest.” — CEO Stan Chia (note: press release shows $34.2M adj. EBITDA) .
• “We delivered… a 16.6% take rate, up 160 bps year-over-year… ended the year with $243 million of unrestricted cash… reduced the term loan rate by 75 bps, saving ~$3M annually.” — CFO Larry Fey .
• “Our guidance contemplates improving content supply alongside a cautious view of demand… expect GOV and revenue to return to growth in the back half.” — CFO Larry Fey .

Q&A Highlights

• International rollout: Launch started in the U.K.; 2025 EBITDA targeted contribution-margin neutral as they focus on scaling volume before profits .
• Concert pipeline: 2025 started double-digit YoY growth; last six weeks turned neutral to negative; overall “roughly flat out of the gate” .
• Defending share: Focus on loyalty (repeat mix 61%), Game Center, and differentiated ecosystem rather than “contra take rate”; buybacks remain part of capital allocation .
• SkyBox Drive: Monetization underway; if fully captured TAM ~$10M annual revenue; costs largely already in the P&L, implying healthy incremental contribution .
• Macro signals: Core marketplace historically resilient among higher-income consumers; observed earlier softness at Vegas.com given lower price points .
• Seasonality and outlook cadence: Typical year back-half heavy with Q4 largest; 2025 expected to be even more back-half loaded as new partners ramp .
• Category mix: Theater share up driven by Vegas; sports stronger than concerts in 2024 on a like-for-like basis .
• Strategic actions: Management won’t comment on sale rumors; free cash flow conversion expected to revert to 60–70% of EBITDA if growth resumes in 2H25; M&A more cautious vs buybacks given relative multiples .

Estimates Context

• S&P Global consensus estimates (EPS, revenue, EBITDA, price targets, recommendations) were unavailable at the time of analysis due to request limits, so we cannot provide beat/miss analysis versus Street expectations for Q4 or FY 2024 [GetEstimates error].

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Back-half growth setup: Management expects GOV and revenue to inflect in 2H25 as comps ease and partnerships (e.g., United) ramp; guidance embeds flexibility to invest in marketing and tech to defend/extend share .
• Unit economics durability: Take rate at 16.6% in Q4 with repeat order mix at 61% underpins lower marketing intensity per transaction and margin resilience despite competitive channels .
• Strategic levers: Game Center and SkyBox Drive monetization (TAM ~$10M) offer incremental, relatively insulated contribution streams; cross-listing/cross-selling synergies from Vegas.com are ramping .
• International optionality: European launch (starting U.K.) adds long-term TAM; near-term focus on building volume at contribution-margin neutral, with profits later .
• Balance sheet flexibility: $243M cash at year end; term loan rate cut to SOFR+225 bps (~$3M annualized savings); ~1x LTM net leverage supports buybacks over M&A near-term .
• Near-term trading frame: Absent consensus benchmarks, watch for announcements/ticket on-sales and partnership activations; competitive intensity remaining high may keep near-term profitability variable, with narrative focused on back-half acceleration .
• Risk monitor: Event cancellations (Q4 impact $21.1M) and concert supply variability can pressure GOV; macro sensitivity evident at lower price points (Vegas.com), even as core marketplace remains resilient .