Sealed Air - Q1 2024

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the first quarter 2024 Sealed Air's Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during this session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising you your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Brian Sullivan. Please go ahead.

Brian Sullivan (Assistant Treasurer and Executive Director of Investor Relations)

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. With me today are Emile Chammas, Interim Co-CEO and COO, and Dustin Semach, Interim Co-CEO and CFO. Before we begin our call, I would like to note that we have provided a slide presentation to supplement the call. Please visit sealedair.com, where today's webcast and presentation can be downloaded from our investor relations page. Statements made during this call stating management's outlook or estimates for future periods are forward-looking statements. These statements are based solely on information that is now available to us. We encourage you to review the information in this section entitled "Forward-Looking Statements" in our earnings release and slide presentation, which applies to this call. Additionally, our future performance may differ due to a number of factors.

Many of these factors are listed in our most recent annual report on Form 10-K, as revised and updated on our quarterly reports on Form 10-Q and current reports on Form 8-K. We discuss financial measures that do not conform to U.S. GAAP. You will find important information on our use of these measures and the reconciliation to U.S. GAAP in our earnings release. Included in the appendix of today's presentation, you will find U.S. GAAP financial results that correspond to the non-U.S. GAAP measures we reference throughout the presentation. I will now turn the call over to Emile and Dustin. Operator, please turn to slide three. Emile?

Emile Chammas (Interim Co-CEO and COO)

Thank you, Brian, and thank you for joining our first quarter earnings call. Today, Dustin and I will review SEE's financial performance, provide updates on the markets we serve, discuss relevant trends, and highlight the significant progress made on the transformational actions discussed on our previous calls. Lastly, we will conclude with our 2024 outlook before opening the call for questions. We closed the quarter with sales of $1.33 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $278 million, delivering strong results despite the continued challenging market dynamics in the Protective segment. Our first quarter results reflected for the first time since Q4 2021, year-over-year volume growth across all regions of our food business, continued volume stabilization and protective, and strong execution related to our CTO2Grow initiatives.

Through the focused efforts of our teams around the world, we delivered positive free cash flow of $78 million in the first quarter, compared with a negative $13 million in the same period a year ago. Dustin will provide a more comprehensive overview of our financial performance shortly. Now, let us move on to our market and business update. During the first quarter, our food segment delivered low single-digit volume growth across all regions, primarily driven by our shrink bag business, which benefited from the carryover momentum of enhanced holiday demand and new customer wins from the fourth quarter. In the U.S., beef production was down low single digits year-over-year for the first quarter. For the rest of 2024, U.S. slaughter rates are expected to decline at a more rapid pace in the outlying quarters.

In South America and Australia, cattle cycles are at their peaks, driven by a robust domestic consumption and heightened export activities. Against a flat global proteins market in the first quarter, we drove volume growth, gain share, and delivered double-digit growth in automation. Following its successful launch last quarter, our new compostable tray continues to gain traction in the market. Additionally, we are actively engaged in the development and introduction of more sustainable packaging solutions, such as recycle-ready barrier display films, poultry bags, and post-consumer recycled trays, to address evolving market needs and support food processors and retailers in meeting their sustainability goals and regulatory requirements. The regulatory landscape concerning plastics continues to evolve rapidly, with recent legislative attention being directed towards polyvinylidene chloride, or PVDC, due to chemical similarity to PVC. PVDC is used as a very thin barrier layer in multilayer films within our protein shrink bags.

Our shrink bag business that contains PVDC is approximately one-third of our Food segment. This barrier material plays a vital role in preserving the quality of fresh proteins, extending shelf life, enabling global distribution, and minimizing food waste and its environmental impact on greenhouse gas emissions. Currently, there is no alternative to PVDC that matches its performance level. Through close collaboration with our suppliers, customers, industry associations, and government agencies, we actively advocate for the essential role packaging plays in mitigating food waste and ensuring safe, affordable food on a global scale. For decades, we've been assisting our customers in adapting to the changing regulatory environment and safeguarding their food supply chains.

We already provide alternative barrier layers to PVDC, such as EVOH, among others, particularly for applications with lower performance requirements. As the market leader in shrink bags, we continue to be best positioned to help food processors navigate the evolving regulatory landscape and deliver market-leading solutions that combine world-class material science, equipment, and technical services. Transitioning to Protective, revenue performance in the first quarter was in line with expectations. Industrial portfolios continue to be under pressure across all regions, contributing to a low- to mid-single-digit year-over-year volume decline for the segment. As discussed on our last quarter's call, the pricing environment remains pressured as we compete in a low-volume, low-visibility environment. In the Americas, volume growth was less than 1%, as growth in box right-sizing solutions and recovery in retail and fulfillment sectors were offset by industrial weakness.

EMEA experienced continued double-digit volume decline, primarily driven by intensified sustainability pressures across all portfolios and destocking from our APS product line. The electronic sector in Asia is improving from last year. However, uncertainties around China's economic recovery continue to temper short-term regional growth expectations. Consistent with our previous discussions, we still anticipate an L-shaped recovery across the protective segments. The organizational changes implemented in February, which established dedicated commercial teams for both food and protective, are beginning to gain traction. The renewed focus on our protective channel and direct customers has created positive momentum internally and has well been received by our customers. Similar to food, we strive to protect products in transit in a sustainable way. Our strategy entails a dual-pronged approach. First, within our flexibles portfolio, we are continuously increasing the level of recycled content in our product lines.

Second, we are in the process of adding more fiber solutions to our portfolio, which will enable us to fully serve our channel partners and all segments within our markets. As an example, we are expanding our paper mailer offerings with various sizes to match the versatility traditionally associated with plastic and hybrid mailers. Moreover, we've developed more resilient paper coilers as a sustainable cushioning solution to address demands of protecting high-value, heavyweight products. Additionally, we are introducing fiber alternatives within our APS solutions, enabling substrate-agnostic capabilities for our automation portfolios. This approach ensures that existing equipment installations can accommodate both substrates, providing our customers with enhanced flexibility in their distribution processes. The transformation outlined in previous quarters continues apace. We are focused on improving underlying business fundamentals by improving our commercial effectiveness, innovation processes, and overall talent.

Overall portfolio and footprint optimization continues to progress, with 3 plant closures last year and another 4 in process in 2024. Throughout the first quarter, we continued to wind down pieces of the portfolio announced last year, and we continue to evaluate the rest of the portfolio and footprint for further opportunities. As mentioned earlier, we continue to accelerate our cost take-out initiatives, and it is driving improvements to our bottom line. With the actions implemented so far, we have achieved an annual run rate savings of $78 million. Continuing with this momentum, we are confident in our ability to achieve approximately $90 million in year-over-year cost savings in 2024. Finally, we are in the process of pivoting our digital and automation strategies, and we'll have more to share in subsequent calls. Now I'd like to turn it over to Dustin to review our financial results.

Dustin?

Dustin Semach (Interim Co-CEO and CFO)

Thank you, Emile, and good morning, everyone. Moving to first quarter results, let's turn to slide four. Net sales were $1.33 billion in the quarter, down 1% on a constant currency basis. Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter was $278 million, up 4% compared to last year. Volumes were flat year-over-year for the quarter, with growth in the Food segment across all regions, offset by declines in Protective, primarily in EMEA. As reported, adjusted earnings per share in the quarter of $0.78 were up 5% compared to a year ago. Our adjusted tax rate was 25.9%, compared to 24% in the same period last year. The increase in the tax rate year-over-year was driven by discrete impacts related to our share-based compensation.

Our weighted average diluted shares outstanding in the first quarter of 2024 was 145.4 million. Turning to Slide 5. In Q1, inorganic growth from Liquibox contributed 2% to total company sales, or approximately $23 million. As anticipated, we saw lower pricing across both the food and protective segments, primarily in the Americas and EMEA regions, following the reduction of resin costs from the post-COVID peak in 2022 to the middle of 2023. Year-over-year volume improved in the food segment across all regions through carryover momentum from last year's holiday season and new customer wins. Protective volumes were down 4% year-over-year, driven by a rebound in Americas, more than offset by declines, primarily in EMEA.

First quarter Adjusted EBITDA of $278 million, which included $4 million inorganic contribution from Liquibox, increased $11 million, or approximately 4% compared to last year, with margins of 20.9%, up 110 basis points. This performance was mainly driven by accelerated savings from our Cost Take-Out to Grow and productivity efficiencies, partially offset by unfavorable net price realization.... Moving to Slide 6. In the first quarter, food net sales of $868 million were down 1% on an organic basis, primarily due to declines in price, partially offset by positive volumes led by carryover holiday benefits within our food business, solid equipment performance, cattle cycle tailwinds in Asia-Pac and Latin America, along with share gains of our case-ready solutions in the poultry market.

Food Adjusted EBITDA of $190 million in the first quarter was down 3%, with margins at 21.8%, down 100 basis points compared to last year. The decrease in Adjusted EBITDA was mainly driven by unfavorable net price realization of $10 million, partially offset by higher volumes. Protective first quarter net sales of $461 million were down 7% organically, driven by lower pricing in Americas and EMEA and volume declines, primarily in EMEA, where both industrial and fulfillment end markets remain soft and sustainability pressures are accelerating. Americas volume rebounded, with strong automation solutions offsetting continued industrial weakness. Protective Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $90 million was up 11% in the first quarter, with margins at 19.4%, up 320 basis points.

The increase in adjusted EBITDA was driven by cost control actions, which included CTO2Grow savings, partially offset by unfavorable net price realization of approximately $10 million in lower volumes. On Slide 7, we review our first quarter net sales by region. On an organic basis, Americas was down 2%, primarily due to lower pricing. Volume turned positive year-over-year for both segments for the first time since the end of 2021, with robust equipment placements in both businesses and strong volume within food. EMEA declined 7% organically on lower pricing, persisting market softness and sustainability challenges in the protective segment, while food volumes grew mid-single digit. Asia-Pac was flat organically as tailwinds from Australian cattle cycle and improving electronics performance were offset by continued weakness in the industrial markets. Now let's turn to free cash flow and leverage on Slide 8.

Through the first quarter, we generated strong free cash flow of $78 million compared to $13 million use of cash in the same period a year ago. The primary driver of this improvement was higher earnings, lower incentive compensation payments, and better working capital management, partially offset by higher interest costs. During the first quarter, we further reduced our total debt by $28 million, ending the quarter with a net leverage ratio of 3.9 times, flat from the end of 2023. Our total liquidity position was $1.4 billion, including $353 million in cash and the remaining amount in committed and fully undrawn revolver. We continue to focus on driving net debt to adjusted EBITDA to below 3.5 times by the end of 2025. Let's turn to Slide 9 to review our 2024 outlook.

We are pleased with the strong finish to the first quarter and encouraged by the momentum that is building in parts of the business. The strength of the first quarter is giving us more confidence in our full year guidance. We continue to operate in a low visibility environment, especially in Protective, and we'll have better visibility into how this momentum translates into the second half during our next call. For now, we are reaffirming our full year 2024 outlook. Looking ahead to the second quarter, we anticipate a slight sequential decline in sales, reflecting the dynamic low visibility environment and subsiding holiday demand from last year. As a result, second quarter net sales, Adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted earnings per share are expected to be ranged around $1.3 billion, $260 million, and $0.64, respectively. Turning to Slide 10.

We remain committed to restoring underlying fundamentals by executing in the market, progressing our transformation, delivering CTO to Grow savings, and deleveraging the balance sheet. Lastly, I'd like to close by thanking the global SEE team, who are at the center of our transformation, for their efforts in solving our customers' most critical packaging challenges day in, day out. With that, Emile and I look forward to your questions. Operator, we would like to begin the Q&A session.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. We ask that you please limit yourself to one question. One moment while we compile our Q&A roster. Our first question is gonna come from the line of Ghansham Panjabi with Baird. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Ghansham Panjabi (Senior Research Analyst on Packaging & Materials)

Hey, guys. Good morning.

Dustin Semach (Interim Co-CEO and CFO)

Hey, Ghansham.

Ghansham Panjabi (Senior Research Analyst on Packaging & Materials)

I guess, good morning. Emile, I guess, you know, in your characterization of the food segment as it relates to the, you know, various trends across your geographies as you look out for the rest of the year, is, is that pretty much in line with your initial view coming into the year, especially as it relates to the North American cattle cycle? And then related to that, what, what drove the upside specific to food in the first quarter? You know, a lot of companies have called out, at the customer level, called out, you know, timing of Easter, et cetera. Do, do you think that played a role as well? Thanks.

Emile Chammas (Interim Co-CEO and COO)

Thank you, Ghansham. Thanks for your question. I mean, overall, in terms of the underlying market trends, they are more or less in line with our initial expectations. Although if you look at the North American cattle cycle, even though it's down year-over-year, it is slightly better than initially thought. We have strength in the other two regions, in Latin America, in terms of their cycle, as well as in Australia and New Zealand, where the market is up double digits. And as in our prepared remarks, you know, we did highlight, you know, the strength in Q1 came from a couple of pieces. One is carryover in terms of the holiday demand, but also in terms of new customer wins across several sectors. And so we're very encouraged in terms of the momentum of that business.

Dustin Semach (Interim Co-CEO and CFO)

... And Ghansham, the only thing I would follow on there, too, it was a broad base, you know, as Emile alluded to, in terms of overall regions, but also across many of our portfolios, right? Which was, you know, well-received, obviously, for the first quarter, and demonstrating some of the strength in not just, you know, our shrink bags business, but across the board of rollstock, as well.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, and one moment for our next question. Our next question is gonna come from the line of Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Dustin Semach (Interim Co-CEO and CFO)

Adam, are you on mute?

Operator (participant)

Right, we can move to our next question. Our next question is gonna come from the line of George Staphos with Bank of America Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

George Staphos (Senior Research Analyst on Packaging)

Thanks. Hi, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for the details. I guess my question centers around sustainability, the transition that you're trying to achieve, particularly within protective. So I guess the question is this: Sealed Air has always had fiber-based solutions in protective packaging. You know, what factors, to the extent relevant in terms of the going forward model, allowed you to, to some degree, maybe fall behind in terms of share and lose share in fiber-based? What's it gonna cost to bring out these new programs and new SKUs? And, you know, what's the uptake been as you've been talking about this with your customers? So differently, you know, how much is it gonna cost and how much volume do you think you can regain as you bring out these new products?

Are you seeing more demand for this from your larger or smaller customers in protective packaging? Thank you, guys.

Dustin Semach (Interim Co-CEO and CFO)

All right, George, this is Dustin, and again, I appreciate the question. So a couple comments I would make, going back, starting with, you know, why haven't we been able to, you know, kind of gain share or we've lost share in fiber, considering our portfolio. So you're correct that in many cases, we already have a very strong portfolio in fiber. And the statements that Emile alluded to earlier today is that our intention is to really round that out, complete it, and make it more fulsome across the board. He alluded to the paper coiler as an example, as well as continuing to extend our fiber-based mailers in terms of sizes, et cetera. So going back to the past, we talked about this a little bit on the, you know, kind of towards the end of last year around this commercial reorganization.

So if you go back three or four years ago, we really consolidated our sales teams into regional teams, and as a part of that, lost some focus on our overall protective business, right? Being, you know, you know, roughly 35% versus food being more dominant in terms of the total portfolio. And so part of that reorganization was really to drive that focus, that intentional focus on the protective business holistically. And so right now, our customers as well as our internal teams, 'cause for them, they're, they're really excited about, you know, the dedicated marketing teams, the rededicated focus on R&D, and so just being more intentional about, you know, driving that business forward. The second piece is from a customer reception, they're noticing it as well.

So we, you know, Emile and I have had an opportunity to sit down with some of our distributors, direct customers, and they're noticing the difference in terms of just focus, and they're very excited that, you know, kind of our recommitment on some of these different offerings, again, to advance that portfolio. And, you know, it's, it's more of a, a timing for us in terms of when we bring it out to market. In terms of cost, you know, think of it as right now, in terms of our guidance, our capital allocation from a CapEx, et cetera, that's all really, today, fully baked into our overall guidance and, and, and encapsulated in the, you know, our kind of total top line and bottom line.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, and one moment for our next question. Our next question is gonna come from the line of Matt Roberts with Raymond James. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Matthew Burke Roberts (VP of Equity Research on Packaging)

Hey, good morning, Emile, Dustin, thank you for the time. I think last quarter, you previously expected EBITDA to sequentially improve throughout the year, I believe. Now, now I know 1Q impressively came in higher, partially due to some holiday carryover. Could you quantify that holiday carryover or any of the cost takeout acceleration, and the decline now expected again in 2Q? Is that more volume related, or have any of the price flow-through expectations changed? And any put stakes there would be helpful. Thank you.

Dustin Semach (Interim Co-CEO and CFO)

Yeah. Yeah, Matt, this is Dustin. I'll take this one. And so a couple comments I would make. One is we are continuing to accelerate our cost to growth program. We're really excited about, obviously, the improvements we've made. We talked about the $78 million in terms of a run rate we're already on, and the confidence that gives us at this point in time, really being at the end of Q1 and being able to achieve that full $90 million. And candidly, we're not gonna stop there, right? I mean, in general, I think driving that cost-conscious mindset into the organization is driving benefits to the bottom line, and you're seeing some of that. That, a lot of that is gonna be continued momentum, right? So that's kind of baked into the forward-looking guidance.

But when you go to Q2, right, there's really, you know, two impacts, I would say, more broadly overall. One is, you have FX coming down, roughly. The US dollar is strengthening, so some of that decline is just purely FX, for probably roughly about $10 million. The rest is, there's a little bit of price in terms of sequential pressure, but it's relatively small. Think of it as roughly $5 million, and then on volume, it's about $15 million. And that's really the subsidization of the holiday demand kind of subsiding from Q1, which was stronger than we really originally expected. However, you know, baked into that is also the momentum of the gains that you saw.

So you go back to Q1, it was a mix of that carryover, but also a number of gains, particularly in poultry, that we're really excited about, that continue to ramp throughout the rest of the year, which is again gonna continue to drive some of that, as you kind of get beyond Q2, then you get into Q3, Q4, you're gonna see food continue to ramp and, you know, kind of be in this low single digit range from a volume perspective, with pricing subsiding as we go throughout the year, in terms of an impact.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment as we move on to our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Jeff Zekauskas with J.P. Morgan. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Jeff Zekauskas (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks very much. You were talking earlier in the call about the risks connected with PVDC. Is the issue the bill in California that's being weighed, or is it a European issue? Have your competitors already changed over to a different material? You know, that is, do you feel like you're lagging behind in technology? Are there particular dates that it may be good to be aware of in terms of, you know, when this packaging may or may not be used?

Dustin Semach (Interim Co-CEO and CFO)

All right, Jeff, thank you for that, that question. I'll try to be as comprehensive as possible.

Jeff Zekauskas (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you.

Dustin Semach (Interim Co-CEO and CFO)

So, you know, when we're addressing PVDC, you know, there's a couple comments I'll make. We've talked about a, you know, a third of the overall business in food, specifically being PVDC, but another point is about a third of, a third of it is also EVOH, right? And to hit your question directly, are we lagging behind? Absolutely not, right. The intent of the conversation is to really demonstrate, one is that our offerings, because these really, you know, the PVDC, specifically in our shrink bag business, is really around three pieces, right? It's the strength of the material science, and that can be whether it's PVDC or EVOH. We offer both today, as well as the technical services capability, and then you combine that with our automation.

That's really the strength that was driven us to become the market leader in that segment and will continue to be. And so we're continuing to navigate that landscape and make sure that whether it's our manufacturing footprint or other aspects, are able to candidly do both. And that's generally the way you would update the technology across our manufacturing footprint. And as it relates to your specific question around California itself, at this point in time, there's no specific dates. California recently in roughly Q1 of this year, earlier in Q1, kind of announced what's called AB 2761, which is a bill related to. It's really a toxins bill broadly, that speaks to both PFAS, which we've already eliminated within our food packaging, and then as well as as well as PVDC. And the broader comment is we're continuing to work.

At this point in time, that bill is not in a place where it's enacted, and we'll continue to make sure that we advocate with agencies and our coalition to make sure people understand the impact that you have more broadly, you know, with how PVDC plays an important role in mitigating food waste, you know, across, across the globe.

Emile Chammas (Interim Co-CEO and COO)

Maybe I'll just jump in to add a couple of pieces. So one is, ultimately, we offer our customers what they would like, and in many cases, we help them in terms of coming up with different solutions to address any potential regulations. So we approach it multifront, right? One, in terms of working with industry associations to make sure the legislators understand the benefits of the different packaging. PVDC, in this example, it is the best barrier layer out there. Two is, within our portfolio, we are offering multiple solutions, both on the food and the non-food side. We talked earlier about the fiber part of the portfolio. And then finally, in some cases, you know, customers are reaching out to us to solve problems that were not in our portfolio.

We gave the example of the compostable fiber tray that we launched last quarter. So again, this was in response to specific customer coming to us and asking us to help them solve that problem with the EPS challenge. So really approaching it from end to end and tackling those issues.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment as we move on to our next question. Our next question is gonna come from, from the line of Michael Roxland with Truist Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Michael Roxland (Managing Director of Equity Reseach on Paper & Packaging)

Thank you, Dustin, Emile, Brian, and Louise, for taking my questions. You already touched a little bit in terms of momentum building in the business. You already spoke about food in terms of new customer wins, especially around poultry. Any other pieces that you can comment on that have inflected or are doing better? And then secondly, Emile, you mentioned you're pivoting your digital and automation strategies, and you said, you know, you'll have more comments later on our future quarters. But can you give a sense of what's happening there? What are you reevaluating? Any color you can provide about what the strategy around digital and automation?

Dustin Semach (Interim Co-CEO and CFO)

Yeah, thank you. And, I'll take the first part, and then Emile's gonna take the second part of that question. So just in terms of, you know, kind of what's doing better and underlying, I would tell you in general, across the business, particularly within food, bags specifically, right? So if you think about despite some of the issues that you're having in the overall, protein cycles that we talked about holistically, you know, our bags business, so think of it as poultry is more on the overwrap, and then think of it as in our rollstock portfolio, you can think about our bags business. We're really firing on all cylinders across all three regions. And, and so that's really that momentum.

I think what's happening is what you've seen is, it's no, it's obviously no surprise to anybody in terms of where protein cycles around, particularly around beef are, but what you're still seeing is strong retail demand. And so you're seeing a lot more exporting activity right now happening across the globe as a result of that. As you think about, you know, the, the major industrial food processors trying to make sure that they're getting the right supply to where, where the strongest demand is, and so we're obviously helping them, you know, helping them through that. So I would say that's the biggest area. And as you go back to protective, I'm talking about some of the areas that were, you know, that were better in Q1.

We're really, you know, strong around our APS offerings, where we talked about a lot during 2023, some of the destocking activities that happened. There's still some of that in EMEA, but in general, when we talk about strength in Americas, as well as Asia-Pac, you know, again, APS plays a part in that. Our box right sizing solutions performed very well, but we also had pockets of green shoots, and think of this as shrink films, inflatables, and a couple other areas that we're inflecting back to positive, positive volume. So again, we're remaining cautiously optimistic. If you look at kind of the outlying periods for protective, you're gonna see volume kind of improve. Q2 will be very similar to Q1, but then Q3 and Q4, you know, our expectation right now is that business will continue to inflect.

Then, on food, you know, Q2, you're looking at a little bit of flattish volume, going back to the reasons we discussed earlier, but then Q3 and Q4 will be strong, you know, kind of low single-digit volume growth, driven off the back of those wins and just the momentum that's building in that broader business.

Emile Chammas (Interim Co-CEO and COO)

Yeah, and then jumping in on the digital automation, again, as we said, we will talk more about this in future calls, but let me just hit a couple of those highlight points to you, the things that we've already started discussing in the last quarters. So first one on automation. So if you think about our business, where we build strength is where we have superior materials technology to offer to our customers, accompanied by strong automation solutions as well as service, and that's been the drive. I mean, and we mentioned the last call that, where we have gaps in that portfolio is in a couple of areas. One, if you think on the protective side, we've announced partnerships around getting the 3D right-sized box solution, and we are starting to get some gains from that partnership.

Second, we announced recently in one part of our rolstock portfolio, where we've announced a partnership around trays and overwrap, and we are working there with more partnerships to come to complete that offering. But also on the fluid side, on the Liquibox, Liquibox automation sales are a very small percentage in terms of the overall portfolio, and there we're working on a couple of partnerships, which we hope to announce in the next couple of quarters, around being able to offer a full automation solution. So again, if you think about it, our approach to the market is superior materials, automation, accompanied with service. Then jumping in on digital, again, two pieces there that we're gonna be exploring further in the next upcoming calls. One is on the digital commerce.

Today, we have about 22% of our sales that are going through that channel. As we talked in the past, we pivoted from just continuously investing in more capabilities in terms of using the investments we've made to drive into commercial success, both from a top and bottom line. Then the second piece that we've talked about, which will come to market in the back half of the year, is around our digital printing technology, where we're introducing for flexible, shrinkable materials, the first commercial scale digital printing capabilities with water-based inks. Again, more to come, but those are two key pillars in terms of our growth strategies.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment as we move on to our next question. Our next question is gonna come from the line of Edlain Rodriguez with Mizuho Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Edlain Rodriguez (Director of Equity Research on Chemicals and Packaging)

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. So Dustin and Emile, so just kind of looking ahead, like the next, you know, 2, 3 years, just wanted to get a sense of, like, what keeps you awake at night? Like, what do you see where that has, like, the most opportunities, and what concerns you the most? Like, when you're thinking about the business portfolios, again, what keeps you awake at night? Or do you sleep like a baby?

Dustin Semach (Interim Co-CEO and CFO)

I appreciate the question. So, I would say a couple of things. You know, it's, it's what we're really talking about on our call today. A lot of the things that we're working on as part of our overall transformation are really to address those, you know, really maximize the opportunities we have and minimize the risk that we see ahead of us. And, you know, if you really think about that and break it down a number of different areas, one is we recognize kind of coming off the volume losses in 2022 and 2023, that there was work to be done on the overall cost structure. We feel like we have that well under, well underway, and, you know, the 78 going to the 90.

The second piece is around the commercial reorganization, where, you know, there was a sense that we had lost some focus on the overall protective business. We completed that reorganization in the first quarter of the year in February. We're really excited about the traction that's gaining, but that work will be ongoing in terms of us continuing to drive commercial execution, commercial excellence. And so those areas, you know, it's too early to call in terms of the tangible benefit that we'll get relative to driving overall growth, but we're quite optimistic already as we sit here in April, just a few months away from that initial organization. The second piece is around the overall portfolio, right?

And I think that area is, as we talked about, we're excited about some of the things we're being able to drive in 2024, but that work will be ongoing. As you think about completing the portfolio from an overall fiber, it's not just the fiber piece. It's going back to the earlier question I believe George had, it's also about making sure that we can commercially execute well in that area, not just across our direct customers, but our channel partners. We're continuing on that work, and then we feel incredibly well positioned, as we mentioned earlier, about some of the sustainability challenges that we're facing on, you know, with food and protective, the fiber and protective and on food, as we talked about earlier today, around, you know, PVDC and focused on certain plastics.

But we feel incredibly well positioned, but, you know, we'll have to also continue to manage through that transition and from here on.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. And one moment as we move on to our next question. And our next question is gonna come from the line of Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Gabe Hajde (Equity Research Analyst)

Good morning, Emile and Dustin. I have one confirming question for us non-material scientists on the call. So this PVDC discussion, to be clear, it's a middle layer within a multilayer 9-11 layer film with no direct food contact. And more importantly-

... Yep, prevents contamination, food waste, and you can today change the formulation at your customer request, although it may compromise some of these, again, extended shelf life, attributes.

Dustin Semach (Interim Co-CEO and CFO)

The answer to that question-

Gabe Hajde (Equity Research Analyst)

I really-

Dustin Semach (Interim Co-CEO and CFO)

Sorry, go ahead. Apologies.

Gabe Hajde (Equity Research Analyst)

Go. Yep, no, go ahead.

Dustin Semach (Interim Co-CEO and CFO)

Yeah, so to answer that question, the answer is yes. It is a thin barrier level, you know, that manages oxygen, oxygen transmission rate within our multilayer films. To be clarifying, we already offer both today, right? And it's really based on customer preference, market need. And so at any point, if something changes from a regulatory, you know, environment, we'll be well positioned to manage that transition. But it's already offered today. It is that there's no food contact associated with it. And it's obviously fully FDA compliant.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment as we move on to our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Adam Samuelson with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Adam Samuelson (VP of Equity Research on Agribusiness & Packaging)

Yes, thank you. I appreciate you guys getting me back in the queue. I guess wanted to just get an update on price costs. Certainly there is still pricing pressure in protective as well as the other as well as food. But just price if I'm looking at the business of the quarter, price cost seems like it was a much smaller drag on the business year-on-year than maybe had been previously contemplated. And maybe put another way, can help us bridge some of the year-on-year margin expansion in the protective business, and just help us think about where, I mean, volumes are still, were still negative. Help us think about how you got that much kind of leverage, and EBITDA expansion in the on protective side. Thank you.

Dustin Semach (Interim Co-CEO and CFO)

No, Adam, great question. I, and I'll start with just kind of giving you a bridge holistically on, around net price realization. So, I appreciate the question. And just to start there, you know, we expect net price realization to be in, in the order of magnitude around $80 million negative year over year, right? That's about $140 million of price, offset by benefit and direct materials of, of about $100 million, and then offset by some of that inflationary, albeit much smaller than prior years around, think of it as, as labor and, non-material, you know, costs as well. So it's about negative 40. It gets you to that negative 80.

That's actually about, you know, $15 million worse than we'd originally anticipated, and a lot of that's coming from a little bit of, you know, I'd say, increased price pressure that we see overall, and that's being offset by the, by the productivity benefits more broadly in the business. Not because keep in mind, while we're driving our Cost Tak-Out to Grow program, which is restructuring holistic business, that we're always continuously driving productivity in the underlying business.

And a lot of what you're seeing in protective, if you go back to that cost takeout program, and you go back to Q1, which, keep in mind, was a very low quarter in 2023 for, you know, Q1, specifically for protective, that a lot of the actions that we've been taking in terms of, you know, in terms of cost control, productivity, footprint rationalization, SG&A optimization, have all really been targeted in that protective business, and that's why you're seeing some of the benefits you're seeing today.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment as we move on to our next question. Our next question is going to come from the line of Christopher Parkinson with Wolfe Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Christopher Parkinson (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst on Chemicals, Agriculture, and Packaging)

Great. Thank you so much. Can you just take a step back and just, you know, looking at some of the businesses, you know, that you're referencing and the movement in food and improvements, can you just take a step back and talk about a little bit more how you are thinking about your product portfolio, what you're seeing by geography? You know, obviously, there's been a lot of noise across protein markets the last few years. You know, it seems like things are turning generally for the positive, but I'd love to hear your perspective on, you know, how confident you are to fully benefit from these improvements or at least stabilization, let's say, you know, for the balance of 2024. Thank you.

Dustin Semach (Interim Co-CEO and CFO)

Yeah. Thank you, Chris. And so I'll start with food, and then I'll move to protective. And so we feel really strong about food holistically, going back to where our strength is. You know, we're we continue to be the market leader in our overall bags business. It continued to gain share. We're really good about that. Outside of kind of the market ebb and flows on, you know, kind of global proteins, particularly as it relates to fresh red meat, specifically beef.

And there's no— you know, we've talked about the fact that this year is obviously a down year in the cattle cycle, and it's going to take a couple of years to work through that, but we feel really good about our placement and from a portfolio perspective, and again, it's that combination that drives it around material science, automation, as well as technical service. You know, when you think about it, when we talked about in Q1, or excuse me, during Q4 earnings call, and what we're still focused on, and Emile alluded to it a little bit earlier, is really rounding out our rollstock portfolio. We see that as an area of continued growth. You know, we're not the market leader in that space today, and that's part of what creates it.

It's a much larger market as well, much more fragmented, and so we feel, you know, our focus from a portfolio perspective is continuing to round out that offering set and make sure that it's competitive in the marketplace. And so we're targeting specific applications that we're going after. As you know, an example would be today, the strength of our, our poultry business, but extending that into other areas. Then when you move to and then the other third piece is just from a category perspective is the trays, right? We see a huge opportunity, think about sustainability themes around EPS, you know, that, you know, kind of the bans coming in place for that, the compostable tray relaunch, but there's many other formats from a tray perspective that we're working on, that we're excited about.

And so we continue to see that as a potential opportunity to just true net new growth going forward, and think of that as multiyear beyond just 2024, but into 2025 and 2026, right? And then as you shift gears and you go to protective, and you think about the portfolio there, it really is that completion of completing the overall fiber-based portfolio and, you know, continuing to extend some of the automation capabilities that we have. You know, the focus there, and Emile alluded to it earlier around, you know, the paper mailers, which is huge opportunities. You think about the e-commerce trends around a shift away from boxes into mailers more broadly.

If you think about, you know, we talked about 2D rights, you know, right sizing that we already have today, 3D, that we're beginning to generate sales on, that will, you know, come into play in the second half of the year. It's those areas that give optimism. The area that we still, you know, we're still looking at and cautiously optimistic about is the rest of that broader portfolio. Think of it as utility. This is classically Bubble Wrap, foam, et cetera, where you still see kind of weakness in Q1.

In a lot of the channel checks we're doing and talking to our distributors, kind of as you think about the rest of the back half of the year, they continue to be no different than we talked about in Q4, optimistic about the second half, but no one at this point in time has true line of sight, right? So that's the area that we're continuing to work and gain momentum. I want to turn it to Emile.

Emile Chammas (Interim Co-CEO and COO)

Yeah, just to add, one area that, you know, we haven't talked a lot about the last months, but it's on the Food segment as well. We continue to be excited about the Food segment and the, the growth there, be it through some of our innovations, around, FlexPrep for the food service area. But also, if you think about it holistically, with all the sustainability and recycling pressures out there, there's going to be more and more pressure for people who are in rigids business, be it plastic or non-plastic, to go towards flexible. So we're well positioned in terms of not only driving growth through our own innovations, but also how do we take advantage of those sustainability trends to penetrate further in terms of rigids and flexible conversion.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. And one moment as we move on to our next question. And our next question is going to come from the line of Anthony Pettinari with Citi. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Anthony James Pettinari (Equity Research Analyst)

Good morning. Dustin, on the last call, you talked through the net pricing outlook for 2024, and I'm just wondering if there's any update on those items. I think you talked about $60 million negative net price and with some moving pieces from raw material prices and the bonus pool restoration. So I'm just wondering if there's any material changes there. And then the $20 million EBITDA drag from net price in 1Q, was that in line with your estimates, you know, better or worse? Any thoughts there?

Dustin Semach (Interim Co-CEO and CFO)

Yeah, great question. So I mentioned this a little bit earlier, and I'll break down kind of where we're at today. We're about $15 million worse, 15-20 year-over-year. Our net price realization is driven primarily that increase in pressures a little bit from a pricing standpoint, where we're roughly -$140 million in price, offset by $100 million of benefits of direct material cost. And then that's being offset by inflationary pressure and non-material, non-labor costs, as well as labor costs. And that kind of brings you back down to roughly a net, you know, a net $80 million number for the full year. Q1 was really driven by. So that's net price realization.

We feel good about that for the remaining of the year, you know, as we kind of manage throughout this. And again, we're obviously really focused on cost control right now. When you think about Q1, the benefits in a lot of ways, you know, was just kind of the performance from a volume perspective, the leverage that drives the business. We've talked about it, but you know, not enough in the sense of that as volume comes back and it's restored, particularly, you've seen in food in Q1, but you're seeing it even somewhat in protective as that business is stabilized, is that you're seeing that the ability for that the business to drive leverage in it, operating leverage.

And then that's also benefiting from just continued, you know, focus on CTO2Grow, being cost conscious, broader productivity benefits in the business, and you're seeing that materialize in Q1, right? And so from the bonus restoration perspective, it's really just in line right now for the full year. So we're still driving towards... You still have that impact. That impact is already embedded in everything that we just talked about in our guidance as well.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets. Your line's open. Please go ahead.

Arun Viswanathan (Senior Research Analyst)

Great, thanks for taking my question. I guess I just wanted to come back to, a similar line of questioning around the bridge. So my understanding was, you're expecting about plus $90 million from cost takeout to grow, and, it sounds like you're now expecting minus $80 million for, net price cost. So that's a plus $10 million net. And then you have the minus $60 million for, incentive comp, and so that's a minus $70 million net. And so when you think about volume, looks like, you know, you know, if you think about flat volume, you know, really it would be kind of negative volume that would get you to that kind of flattish EBITDA year on your outlook. So could you just update on how you guys think volume should progress from here?

I know, you know, food outperformed a little bit, but protective is still down. Looks like it's down about 22% on a two-year stack. So does that kind of flatten out as you move forward, or how do you think about volume and relate that to the bridge? Thanks.

Dustin Semach (Interim Co-CEO and CFO)

Sure. Yeah. So I'll come back to the bridge as the last point. But just talking about volume progression throughout the year, if you look at the total company level, right, and you think about how volume is going to continue to progress, if you think about right now, today, we drove about 0.5 point of growth in Q1. And then if you think about as you go to Q2, where we're down about 1.5 point, and then you're going to expect the rest of the second half of the year, really in this, you know, think of it as total around 2%-2.5% per quarter. That drives you to about 1 point of volume growth in the full year. It's really being driven all by food.

So if you break it down by overall businesses, and you go back to food for a second, you know, food volume, you're looking at, you know, 3%, and that's the strength that we talked about earlier today, you know, at length. And if you think about Q2, it's flattish for the reasons that we've already outlined. And then those winds coming through and the broader business, you're looking at low single digit growth that gets you to about 2%-3% for the full year. And then if you go to protective, you know, Q2 is going to be a similar result. It's improved year-over-year from Q4. So if you know, think it was down 5, now you're down 4. You'll continue to be down 4 in Q2.

Then as you get to the second half of the year, it begins to improve, right? And we talked about that to where we think that it'll inflect kind of during the Q4 timeframe... Right. So if you think about, you know, bridging for the full year holistically, you know, that net price realization of about, you know, negative $80 million, then we talked about the +$90 million, then you have the negative $40 million roughly related to the bonus restoration and a +$20 related to volume. And these are all, again, rough numbers.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Phil Ng with Jefferies. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Phil Ng (Managing Director on Equity Research on Products, Paper & Packaging, and Construction Materials)

Hey, guys, congrats on a strong quarter in a choppy environment. I guess my question's-

Dustin Semach (Interim Co-CEO and CFO)

Thanks.

Phil Ng (Managing Director on Equity Research on Products, Paper & Packaging, and Construction Materials)

- on Protective. Looks like volumes have stabilized, but you did call out perhaps EMEA's a little weaker, seeing some destocking and sustainability pressure. Is that a material risk, and how do I think about your demand profile this year? Appreciating, you know, comments around being refocused on the commercial team on Protective and kind of driving fiber on the Protective side, how does that margin profile look and aspirationally when we think about 2025? You know, give us some perspective is, you know, how big this could be, and when we look at the recovery next year, are some of these headwinds that you've called out limiting your ability to grow, or we should see, you know, a typical cyclical recovery in that business like we've seen it in past cycles?

Dustin Semach (Interim Co-CEO and CFO)

Yeah, so a great question. And I'm gonna get—I'll start with the, the EMEA comment, and you're right, we did rightly call that out. It was, you know, it was down significantly in Q1. And really, that's an extension coming out of 2023, where I would say, if you go back to 2022, where the volume really came down that business, you know, EMEA was came a little bit later in that cycle in terms of actual volume decline. And it's kind of, you know, kind of think of it as last in and last out relative to. So as we, as we progress, we see Q1, we see that business to substantially improve as we go to Q2, Q3, and Q4. The sustainability pressures are still, you know, still being overall, you know, are...

We did make the comment around the acceleration, and that acceleration is that shift to fiber, where you see it, you know, more quickly happening within the EMEA business than you do. You see it relative to our Asia-Pac or obviously our US, North American business or Latin American business. And, you know, right now, we don't see that because keep in mind, our EMEA, you know, Protective business is, you know, I want to say roughly 20% of the total Protective business that we see. One, the work that we're doing from an overall portfolio perspective will allow us to begin to participate in a more meaningful way in the growth in that transition, which will help offset some of the sustainability pressures that we just discussed.

And then more broadly, we still believe that business is set up for a cyclical rebound. I go back to we're anticipating an L-shaped recovery. We're still expecting that throughout this year. A lot of that will be dependent on how we perform in the second half. As we mentioned on the kind of prepared remarks, you know, obviously, we're looking forward to come back in that discussion in August, and I'll give you more clarity because, again, we still are operating in a low visibility, dynamic environment.

But there's nothing from our point of view as we think about the underlying market growth trends that come with a rebound, that we should be able to participate in that, albeit in EMEA, as an example, maybe at a slightly lower rate until we get our portfolio exactly where we need it to be.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, and one moment for our next question. Our next question is a follow-up question from George Staphos with Bank of America Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

George Staphos (Senior Research Analyst on Packaging)

Thanks so much. Hi, guys. I just want to come back to my earlier question, and it's really around, you know, what are your customers asking you, in particular, in both segments, relative to your product offerings? I know it's kind of a broad question, but within Protective, do you see any difference between what your smaller distributor customers are asking for from Sealed Air relative to the larger ones? You know, so for example, are the larger ones really more focused on fiber, and the smaller guys are really more focused on pricing or service? Is there a way to differentiate and in turn, you know, kind of... I know it's in your guidance, but what's it costing you? And then when you get that fixed, maybe piggyback a little bit on what Phil was getting at, what's the uplift?

When you get that resolved, what does that mean in terms of revenue and earnings? Similarly, in Food, we know you have the product offering that you think you need. We know that customers basically dictate whether they want PVC or EVOH or any other barrier layer in their bags or whatever. Do you have, given your portfolio right now, basically offer whatever the customer needs. If they want to pivot to some other structure, you are not constrained from a supply chain standpoint, you can offer whatever they want and not have it impact your earnings, or would it? Thanks, and I'll turn it over, and good luck in the quarter.

Yeah. Yeah, thank, thank you, George. So to come back to the point about Protective, I would say that keep in mind, you know, when you think about our distribution footprint, your larger distributors tend to, you know, kind of offer the full breadth and depth of the entire portfolio, where you could have regional distributors, you know, offering different pieces of it, not holistically. So some of the needs are dictated by, obviously, the pieces of the portfolio they all collectively sell. And I would tell you, in general, there is, you know, there is a desire to have a broader fiber footprint, which is what's leading to us. I mean, it's obviously that customer feedback, whether it's direct or within our distribution, that are leading us to kind of think about and shape our overall portfolio.

Where are they seeing demand where we don't have it right now, more broadly? And so I think that that's really been the focus area. And going back to your question around then tangibilities, you know, and, well, I just want to hit, come back to that one point. So you also made a comment about, is service different, et cetera? It depends. It really depends, again, on the portfolio they sell, because the service models that you have are really structured around those individual areas, where if somebody's selling a lot more of an automation portfolio, you're obviously going to have a lot more technical services as it relates to servicing those machines. But it's really dependent on that portfolio mix.

So what we're focused on is getting that optimum mix in each individual distributor, and then the rest of it will kind of follow suit. I mean, again, our technical service has always been a bright spot in terms of competitive differentiation, and it continues to be, and our distribution as well as direct customers recognize that. When you think about our overall food business, you know, more broadly, I think that a couple comments I would make. The answer is yes. You know, we obviously offer, you know, both today. Our customers dictate what they want in that portfolio.

We feel really good about, you know, 'cause specifically the question you're asking about really relates to our shrink bag business, and we feel well positioned to continue to offer either type of materials or bags that they would like at any given point in time. And so we're in constant dialogue, no different than with our distributors. We're in constant dialogue, Emile and myself, with our direct customers, our largest customers, to really understand, you know, what their needs are, how sustainability pressures are shaping their thinking around their overall needs in terms of what's also important for their supply chain. 'Cause I'll tell you, that's the most important part. A lot of these, those discussions are less about sustainability and more about performance, and we continue to be well positioned there.

It's rollstock that we mentioned that we need to continue to do more work. And then again, we're really excited about the play that we have with our fluids and liquids business and the opportunity that presents to continue to displace rigids from an application perspective. And so I feel really well positioned there. You know, right now, going back to your question about cost, it is embedded, and there's nothing in our portfolio, 'cause think about it, over time, this isn't the first time that we've had some type of pressure, we've shifted our portfolio or navigated these type of scenarios.

It's embedded in our current capital outlay for 2024, and it's part of our broader, you know, kind of as we think about kind of getting to where we need to from a deleveraging standpoint in 2025, it's embedded in that as well.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, and one moment for our next question. Our next question is a follow-up question from Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Gabe Hajde (Equity Research Analyst)

Well, thank you for taking the follow-up. We didn't spend a whole lot of time talking about automation. Emile, you kind of teased out that you guys would be, I guess, updating us in the second half in terms of strategy or resources there. But just was that a drag here in the first half? We're reading a lot about delayed CapEx projects from just industrial companies in general, lack of visibility, higher costs, financing costs, et cetera. And then just kind of what the book-to-bill ratio has been trending like, and then could that be a, you know, things normalize into 2025? I think on the food side, your customers are pretty well incented to use your equipment. Could that be kind of an incremental tailwind for you in 2025? Thanks.

Emile Chammas (Interim Co-CEO and COO)

Yeah, thank you for that question. So actually, you know, we did say in our prepared remarks, actually, in the first quarter, we saw in the food business our automation sales up double digits. But for the year, we're still in line in terms of where we guided. It is gonna be flattish, driven by all those factors that you highlighted. In terms of book-to-bill ratio, we're at one, right? So some of that is burning through some of the backlog. So again, there are hesitations out there in terms of triggering investments from our customers, but if you look at our customers' profitability profiles, it is significantly improving. So we are still optimistic about the future.

But this business, as you can imagine, is lumpy in terms of when exactly it comes, when you install, when you can recognize the revenue. So again, our outlook on automation for this year has not changed. We're off to a good start, and we do believe, you know, that cyclicality will come back, and we're gonna be ready to take advantage of that.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. I would now like to hand the conference back to Emile Chammas for closing remarks.

Emile Chammas (Interim Co-CEO and COO)

Hey, I'd like to thank everyone for their time today, and just to reiterate, we are pleased with the first quarter results, and we're excited about the momentum building in the business and the progress we are making on transformation. We look forward to speaking to all of you again in August. Thank you.

Dustin Semach (Interim Co-CEO and CFO)

Yeah, thank you.

Operator (participant)

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.