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Seer, Inc. (SEER)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 revenue was $4.205M, up 37% y/y and above S&P Global consensus of $3.25M; GAAP EPS was -$0.34 vs consensus -$0.362, and gross margin was 49% (vs 44% y/y) . Revenue/EPS consensus figures marked with asterisks were retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Management reiterated FY25 revenue guidance of $17–$18M and continued to expect FY25 free cash flow loss of $40–$45M, citing ongoing NIH/government funding uncertainty and tariff-related macro headwinds .
  • Demand indicators strengthened: “we shipped as many instruments in Q1 2025 as we did in all of 2024” (10 units in FY24), buoyed by STAC conversions and the Thermo Fisher co-marketing partnership rollout (U.S. sales force trained) .
  • Balance sheet remains a differentiator with ~$285M in cash, cash equivalents and investments and active buybacks (352K shares at $1.91 in Q1), supporting runway to cash flow breakeven as the company invests selectively in R&D .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Instrument momentum and STAC conversions: “we shipped as many instruments in the first quarter of 2025 as we did in all of 2024” and “half of our instrument shipments were acquired by customers who had previously accessed our STAC” .
  • Commercial leverage via Thermo Fisher: U.S. sales force training completed; European training next; teams are collaborating on opportunities, with early traction across regions .
  • Large-cohort demand signal: Discovery Life Sciences/Seer secured a first-of-its-kind 10,000-sample study after head-to-head vendor evaluation, reinforcing Proteograph’s population-scale positioning .

What Went Wrong

  • Macro headwinds persisted: management cited NIH/government funding uncertainty, new tariff dynamics, and drug pricing proposals leading to customer caution and some spending pauses .
  • Profitability still distant: Q1 operating expenses were $22.8M (incl. $4.5M SBC) and net loss was $19.9M despite higher revenue, underscoring operating leverage yet to be realized .
  • Gross margin volatility: 49% in Q1 (down sequentially from 51% in Q4) with mix-driven variability expected quarter to quarter; long-term target remains 70–75% at scale .

Financial Results

Summary P&L vs prior periods

MetricQ1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($M)$3.066 $4.000 $4.205
Gross Margin %44% 51% 49%
Operating Expenses ($M)$26.553 $25.513 $22.792
Net Loss ($M)$(20.679) $(21.742) $(19.948)
Net Loss per Share ($)$(0.32) $(0.37) $(0.34)

Q1 2025 actual vs S&P Global consensus

MetricActualConsensusSurprise
Revenue ($M)$4.205 $3.250*Beat by $0.955 *
GAAP EPS ($)$(0.34) $(0.3618)*Beat by $0.0218 *

Values marked with an asterisk (*) were retrieved from S&P Global.

Revenue breakdown (mix)

Category ($M)Q1 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Product$1.668 $2.351 $2.890
Service$0.408 $1.209 $1.203
Related party$0.954 $0.389 $0.052
Other/Grant$0.036 $0.051 $0.060
Total$3.066 $4.000 $4.205

KPIs and balance sheet

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Cash, cash equivalents & investments ($M)$312 $300 ~$285
Free cash flow loss ($M)——~$12.1
Instrument shipments (units)—FY24 total: 10 Equal to FY24 total (10)
Gross Margin %48% 51% 49%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueFY 2025$17–$18M (2/27/25) $17–$18M (5/13/25) Maintained
Free cash flow lossFY 2025$(40)–$(45)M (2/27/25) $(40)–$(45)M (5/13/25) Maintained
Gross marginFY 202550%–53% outlook (2/27/25) Not updated; quarterly variability reiterated (5/13/25) N/A
Long-term gross marginLong-term70%–75% target (2/27/25) 70%–75% target reiterated (5/13/25) Maintained
Liquidity runwayMulti-year“Sufficient capital to reach cash flow breakeven” (2/27/25) Reiterated “sufficient capital to reach cash flow breakeven” (5/13/25) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrior Two Quarters (Q3–Q4 2024)Q1 2025 (Current)Trend
Proteograph validation/publicationsSurge in 2024 publications; HUPO presentations; head-to-head data favoring Seer 42 customer publications/preprints/reviews; robust data and larger studies emerging Strengthening validation momentum
Access & STACSTAC expanded to Europe; strong demand; ~1/3 projects model organisms Half of Q1 instrument shipments from prior STAC users; capacity expansion efficiencies; rising ASPs Positive conversion and monetization
Thermo Fisher partnershipCo-marketing announced; training underway; modestly assumed in guide U.S. training completed; EU training next; early regional traction; joint webinars Execution progressing
Macro/tariffs/NIHGuidance reflected NIH/govt budget uncertainty Continued caution; some spending pauses; monitoring China exposure and tariffs; ~25% revenue ex-U.S. Elevated uncertainty persisting
Product performance/instruments10 instruments shipped in FY24; building installed-base lens and pull-through KPI Q1 shipments matched FY24 total; sequential traction despite CapEx constraints Acceleration from low base
Liquidity/capital allocation~$300M cash/securities; $25M buyback program; $13.2M authorization left ~$285M cash/securities; repurchased 352K shares at $1.91 in Q1 Continued disciplined deployment

Management Commentary

  • “We shipped as many instruments in the first quarter of 2025 as we did in all of 2024.” — Omid Farokhzad, CEO
  • “Discovery Life Sciences… has secured a significant contract… to run a 10,000 sample study on the Proteograph Product Suite and the Orbitrap Astral mass spectrometer.”
  • “We completed training of the Thermo Fisher U.S. sales force… next phase… European sales force.”
  • “We continue to expect revenue to be in the range of $17 million to $18 million for 2025… We remain cautious due to the significant macroeconomic uncertainty.” — David Horn, CFO/President
  • “With our current cash… we have sufficient capital to reach cash flow breakeven.” — David Horn

Q&A Highlights

  • 10,000-sample project magnitude/timing: First population-scale study enabled by Proteograph + Orbitrap Astral; execution expected over 12–18 months; press release by customer anticipated (scope details pending) .
  • Academic/government outlook: Combined ~30% of 2024 revenue (18% academic/12% government); spending appears stabilized near term but remains a moving target; some 2Q weakness vs 1Q .
  • STAC trajectory: Positive demand with higher ASPs, repeat customers, and model organism use (~1/3 of projects); capacity likely capped, with overflow to COE partners .
  • Thermo Fisher partnership contribution: Modest in guide; operationalization through sales training underway; nonexclusive structure allows other mass spec collaborations .
  • Installed base and pull-through: FY24 installed base 49 instruments and $174K consumables pull-through per instrument; mix-dependent upside as larger cohorts emerge .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 beats: Revenue $4.205M vs $3.25M consensus; GAAP EPS -$0.34 vs -$0.3618 consensus; EBITDA -$19.1M vs -$21.6M consensus. Revenue estimates based on 2 contributors; EPS based on 3 contributors *.
  • Forward look: Street models low-to-mid $4M revenue per quarter near term; estimates imply sequential growth into Q4 2025 ($4.6M) with persistently negative EPS (single-estimate coverage) [functions.GetEstimates]*.
  • Implication: Given magnitude of Q1 revenue beat and reiterated FY guide, near-term revenue estimates likely drift up modestly; however, macro commentary (NIH/tariffs) tempers the slope of upward revisions *.

Values marked with an asterisk (*) were retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q1 execution was commercially stronger than expected (clean revenue beat, instrument momentum, and improved y/y gross margin), while management maintained a cautious macro posture .
  • Reiterated FY25 revenue and FCF loss guidance suggests visibility is improving but still bounded by NIH and tariff uncertainty; monitor 2Q order patterns for confirmation .
  • Thermo Fisher channel enablement and STAC-to-instrument conversions are now tangible growth levers; continued webinar and publication cadence should support pipeline quality .
  • The 10,000-sample study is a key narrative catalyst validating Proteograph at population scale; additional large-cohort announcements could be stock-moving events .
  • Balance sheet strength ($~285M) underwrites continued R&D and selective buybacks while preserving runway to breakeven; liquidity is a competitive differentiator in this macro .
  • Expect quarterly GM volatility (mix-driven) near term; medium-term margin expansion hinges on scaling installed base, consumables pull-through, and operating efficiencies .
  • Set trading bias around catalysts (large-scale study disclosures, Thermo pipeline wins, ASMS presence) with a risk overlay for policy/tariff headlines that could dampen near-term orders .