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    Seer (SEER)

    SEER Q1 2025: 10,000-Sample Proteomics Study Validates Scalability

    Reported on May 14, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$1.92Last close (May 13, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$2.11Open (May 14, 2025)
    Price Change
    $0.19(+9.90%)
    • Pioneering 10,000-sample study: The management highlighted a first-of-its-kind study in collaboration with Discovery Life Sciences, demonstrating the platform’s capacity to support population-scale proteomics and unlocking potential for biomarker discovery.
    • Stabilized academic and government segments: Despite previous concerns, Q1 results indicate a balanced performance between academic, government, and biopharma customers, suggesting that revenue from these key segments has now stabilized.
    • Momentum for larger-scale projects: Management expressed optimism about announcing additional large studies, which reinforces the strong market validation of the Proteograph platform and its scalability for deep unbiased proteomics.
    • Long project timelines: The 10,000-sample study with Discovery Life Sciences is expected to run over 12 to 18 months, which introduces risks of delays or extended revenue recognition that could pressure near-term performance.
    • Weakening academic and government demand: With 30% of revenue coming from academic and government customers—and expected declines due to uncertain funding and budget pressures—weakness in these segments could hurt overall revenue.
    • Cautious customer sentiment amid macro uncertainties: Ongoing macroeconomic issues (e.g., tariffs and drug pricing proposals) are contributing to a more cautious ordering environment, potentially leading to slower demand recovery in future quarters.
    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Revenue

    FY 2025

    $17 million to $18 million, 24% YoY growth at the midpoint

    $17 million to $18 million, 24% YoY growth at the midpoint

    no change

    Free Cash Flow Loss

    FY 2025

    $40 million to $45 million for the year

    $40 million to $45 million for the year

    no change

    Gross Margin

    FY 2025

    50% to 53% for the full year 2025

    70% to 75% long-term at scale

    raised

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Large-scale Proteomics Studies

    Previous quarters (Q2–Q4 2024) emphasized population‐scale studies, including the PrognomiQ and pQTL studies that demonstrated high proteome depth and the potential to drive biomarker discovery. Q3 discussions highlighted deep unbiased proteomics as a transformative capability.

    Q1 2025 described a milestone 10,000‑sample study in collaboration with Discovery Life Sciences and anticipates even larger studies in the coming months, underscoring the platform’s ability to facilitate cost‐effective and robust large-scale research.

    Consistent high interest with escalating scale – the focus remains on large-scale studies, with Q1 2025 showing increased ambition and advanced collaborations.

    Extended Project Timelines

    Across Q2–Q4 2024, extended timelines were noted as a factor that could delay revenue recognition. Discussions in Q2 and Q3 mentioned projects taking multiple quarters and longer sales cycles impacting overall timing.

    In Q1 2025, extended project timelines (12–18 months) were reaffirmed with emphasis on quarterly revenue variability, indicating that longer execution durations continue to factor into financial outcomes.

    Consistent challenge – the prolonged timelines remain a headwind, with revenue timing issues persisting despite continued momentum in large-scale studies.

    Academic and Government Customer Dynamics

    Q2–Q4 2024 calls highlighted a shift in pipeline composition toward academic customers, concerns over NIH and government funding uncertainties, and caution among these customer segments.

    Q1 2025 noted revenue stabilization among academic, government, and biopharma segments in the quarter, although caution remains with expectations of weakness later due to funding uncertainties.

    Steady but cautious – while there is some stabilization in Q1 2025, concerns over funding and budget constraints persist, impacting long-term growth potential.

    Strategic Collaborations and Partnerships

    Earlier calls (Q3/Q4 2024) primarily discussed the Thermo Fisher Scientific partnership – in Q3 it was noted as a nonexclusive co-marketing initiative and in Q4 its operationalization was underway. Discovery Life Sciences was not mentioned in these periods.

    Q1 2025 brought forward a dual emphasis: the established Thermo Fisher collaboration (with completed U.S. sales force training) and a prominent new highlight on the Discovery Life Sciences partnership for a 10,000-sample study.

    Emerging expansion – while Thermo Fisher remains a central partner, the introduction of Discovery Life Sciences indicates strategic broadening and deeper collaborative momentum.

    Customer Validation and Scientific Publications

    Q2–Q4 2024 consistently highlighted strong customer validation through numerous peer-reviewed publications, preprints, and presentations (with counts ranging from 10–33 publications), which boosted adoption and scientific credibility.

    Q1 2025 reported even higher validation with 42 customer publications, reinforcing deep third-party validation and signaling accelerated market adoption and scientific momentum.

    Accelerating validation – the increasing number and scale of studies and publications continue to drive adoption as evidenced by rising publication counts and expanded study sizes.

    Sales Pipeline Strength, Instrument Placements, and Sales Cycle Challenges

    In Q2–Q4 2024, discussions focused on a strong pipeline but persistent challenges from extended sales cycles due to CapEx constraints. Q3 highlighted strong STAC interest and new hires to bolster the pipeline, while Q2 noted a pipeline shift toward academic opportunities.

    Q1 2025 described a robust pipeline with record STAC-to-instrument conversions, shipments in Q1 matching full-year 2024 totals, yet still acknowledged elongated sales cycles and ongoing capital budget challenges.

    Improving execution with persistent macro challenges – enhanced pipeline strength and placement conversions are noted in Q1, though sales cycle delays remain due to budget constraints.

    Macroeconomic Uncertainties and Capital/Budget Constraints

    Q2–Q4 2024 earnings calls repeatedly cited macroeconomic headwinds – including pressures on CapEx, elongated sales cycles, and concerns over NIH/government funding – as key factors impacting customer spending and revenue visibility.

    In Q1 2025, macroeconomic volatility (including tariffs and funding uncertainties) continues to impact demand, with similar concerns over constrained budgets and elongated sales cycles, even as the company reaffirms its revenue guidance.

    Persistent caution – challenges from macroeconomic and capital constraints remain a recurring theme, with sentiment not significantly improved between periods.

    STAC Program Revenue Plateau and Consumable Revenue Guidance Issues

    Q4 2024 explicitly raised concerns regarding a potential plateau in STAC revenue and issues with consumable pull-through guidance, noting that revenue from STAC might level off due to fixed capacity and that guidance would shift to annual reporting. Q3 did not mention these concerns while Q2 lacked any discussion on them.

    Q1 2025 made no mention of STAC revenue plateau or consumable revenue guidance issues; instead, it emphasized strong STAC demand and record conversions, suggesting that these concerns have been deprioritized or resolved in the current discussion.

    Issue dropped from focus – the caution noted in Q4 about STAC plateau and consumable guidance is no longer mentioned in Q1 2025, indicating a shift to a more positive narrative on service demand.

    Guidance Uncertainty and Revenue Visibility Challenges

    In Q2–Q4 2024, uncertainty was widely discussed due to elongated sales cycles, budget pressures, and unpredictable funding, leading to revised revenue guidance (e.g. Q2 lowered guidance and Q3 noted timing uncertainties).

    Q1 2025 continued to acknowledge guidance uncertainty stemming from macroeconomic factors and customer budget pressures, though revenue guidance was reaffirmed (with $17–$18 million for 2025).

    Steady caution with reaffirmed targets – while uncertainty remains a concern, the company maintains its revenue guidance, reflecting cautious optimism despite ongoing visibility challenges.

    1. Life Sciences Study
      Q: What is the scope and duration of the project?
      A: Management described it as a 10,000 sample study aimed at creating a first-of-its-kind proteomic database, with an expected duration of about 12 to 18 months until full realization.

    2. Academic/Govt Trends
      Q: How are academic and government revenues trending?
      A: Management noted that academic and government customers make up about 30% of revenue (18% academic and 12% government), and although Q1 results were balanced, trends appear stable for now despite funding uncertainties.

    Research analysts covering Seer.