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Seer, Inc. (SEER)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 revenue was $4.051M, up 32% year over year, with gross margin at 52%; net loss was $19.4M, and EPS was -$0.33 . Versus S&P Global consensus, Seer delivered a revenue beat ($4.051M vs $3.750M*) and an EPS beat (-$0.33 vs -$0.37206*) driven by higher product and service revenue .
  • Seer reiterated FY 2025 revenue guidance of $17–$18M and guided FY 2025 free cash flow loss to $40–$45M; management flagged macro headwinds (tariffs, NIH/government funding uncertainty) and elongated sales cycles .
  • Strategic milestones: launch of high-throughput Proteograph ONE assay and SP200 instrument, a 20,000-sample Korea University study, and continued STAC-to-instrument conversions; expanded Thermo Fisher co-marketing with early revenue expected from the partnership beginning in Q3 .
  • Share repurchases continue: ~3.9M Class A shares bought in Q2 at ~$1.92 average; cumulative ~10.7M shares since authorization, reducing net shares outstanding ~13% .
  • Stock-relevant catalysts: product-cycle inflection (Proteograph ONE/SP200), population-scale study wins, partnership pipeline maturation, and sustained revenue guidance despite macro caution .

Note: Values marked with * are from S&P Global.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Launch milestones: “a pivotal milestone with the launches of our high-throughput Proteograph ONE assay and SP200 instrument,” enhancing scale and efficiency .
  • Population-scale validation: announced a 20,000-sample study with Korea University and referenced a 10,000-sample study with Discovery Life Sciences; management framed this as enabling deep, unbiased proteomics “at scale” .
  • Commercial traction: “over half of our instrument shipments were acquired by customers who had previously accessed STAC,” highlighting STAC as a conversion funnel; Thermo Fisher co-marketing training completed (US/EU) with active opportunities building .

What Went Wrong

  • Gross margin mixed: Q2 gross margin 52% (vs 56% prior-year) as instrument installation/training costs weighed; management expects quarter-to-quarter variability by revenue mix .
  • Macro headwinds: elongated sales cycles, budgets under pressure, uncertainty around NIH/government funding and tariff/MFN proposals led customers to delay purchases; management reaffirmed guidance but remained cautious .
  • Cash burn: free cash flow loss ~$27.3M for the six months ended 6/30/2025 (clarified during Q&A), reflecting investment intensity amid scaling; FY FCF loss expected at $40–$45M .

Financial Results

Consolidated Performance vs Prior Periods

MetricQ2 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$3.072 $4.000 $4.205 $4.051
Gross Margin (%)56% 51% 49% 52%
Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$28.827 $25.513 $22.792 $22.641
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(22.850) $(21.742) $(19.948) $(19.424)
Net Loss per Share ($)$(0.35) $(0.37) $(0.34) $(0.33)

Q2 2025 Actual vs S&P Global Consensus

MetricQ2 2025 ConsensusQ2 2025 Actual
Revenue ($USD Millions)$3.750*$4.051
EPS ($)-$0.37206*-$0.33

Note: Values marked with * are from S&P Global.

Revenue Components (Segment-like)

Component ($USD Millions)Q2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Product$1.761 $2.890 $2.726
Service$0.682 $1.203 $0.797
Related Party$0.583 $0.052 $0.409
Other$0.046 $0.060 $0.119
Total Revenue$3.072 $4.205 $4.051

Selected KPIs and Balance Sheet

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Investments ($USD Millions)~$300 ~$285 ~$263.3
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$2.025 $2.061 $2.111
R&D Expense ($USD Millions)$12.619 $11.350 $11.985
SG&A Expense ($USD Millions)$12.894 $11.442 $10.656
Free Cash Flow Loss ($USD Millions)N/AN/A~$27.3 (six months ended 6/30/25)
Shares Repurchased (Period)~6.5M FY 2024 N/A~3.9M in Q2 at $1.92 avg; cumulative ~10.7M; net shares -13%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2025$17–$18 $17–$18 Maintained
Free Cash Flow Loss ($USD Millions)FY 2025N/A$40–$45 Introduced
Long-term Gross Margin Target (%)Long-term70–75 (long-term target) 70–75 (long-term target) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ4 2024 (Q-2)Q1 2025 (Q-1)Q2 2025 (Current)Trend
AI/technology initiativesPlatform validation, STAC demand; partnership expansion Strong instrument shipments; 10k-sample DLS study win Launch of Proteograph ONE & SP200; 20k Korea study Accelerating innovation
Supply chainNo material commentaryNo material commentaryNo material commentaryNeutral
Tariffs/macroMacro caution impliedVolatility persists; elongated cycles Explicit caution: tariffs/MFN proposals; NIH/government funding uncertainty Caution increasing
Product performance10 instruments shipped in 2024 “As many instruments in Q1 2025 as in all of 2024” STAC-to-instrument conversions >50% of shipments; improved throughput/cost per sample Improving adoption mix
Regional trendsExpanded Thermo partnership Partnership continues Thermo sales force trained in US/EU; seeing traction and pipeline Building
Regulatory/legalNo material commentaryNo material commentaryPolicy environment fluid; monitoring US policy impacts Watchlist
R&D executionElevated lab expenses; investment in roadmap Continued R&D with cost control High R&D, disciplined spend; product roadmap execution Disciplined
Population-scale studiesNot highlighted10k study (DLS/customer) 20k Korea University; pipeline of large studies Accelerating

Management Commentary

  • “Our team delivered a solid second quarter and achieved a pivotal milestone with the launches of our high-throughput Proteograph ONE assay and SP200 instrument, which significantly enhance the scalability and efficiency of our platform.” — Omid Farokhzad, CEO .
  • “We ended the quarter with $4,100,000 of revenue… and a strong balance sheet of approximately $263,000,000 in cash, cash equivalents and investments.” .
  • “We… believe there is a significant dislocation between our core value proposition and what our stock price reflects today.” — on share repurchases .
  • “We continue to expect revenue to be in the range of $17,000,000 to $18,000,000 for 2025… [but] customers will continue to face headwinds from budget constraints… and broader macroeconomic volatility including potential tariffs.” — David Horn, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Proteograph ONE uptake: Early KOL feedback “has been fantastic,” with doubled throughput, ~4.5-hour runs, and enabling population-scale studies (10k and 20k) .
  • STAC pipeline: Majority of first-half shipments from former STAC customers; management expects similar dynamics in H2 .
  • Thermo partnership: Revenue contribution “extremely modest” to date; first revenue expected to be recognized in Q3; pipeline growing post sales force training .
  • Competitive landscape: Seer positions as the “only truly unbiased, scalable, and deep proteomics platform” versus targeted and novel detector approaches; customers increasingly lean toward untargeted discovery for large content .
  • Clarification: Free cash flow loss of ~$27.3M is for the six months ended 6/30/2025, not the quarter .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 beat vs consensus: Revenue $4.051M vs $3.750M*; EPS -$0.33 vs -$0.37206* — both beats driven by higher product and service revenue and despite margin variability from installation/training costs .
  • Forward consensus snapshots: Q3 2025 revenue ~$4.0M*, Q4 2025 ~$4.6M*; EPS remains negative in forecasts (-$0.30* to -$0.32*) reflecting ongoing investment and mix [GetEstimates].
  • Implication: Street models may need to reflect growing population-scale cohorts and STAC-to-instrument conversion, tempered by macro constraints and variable quarterly margin mix .

Note: Values marked with * are from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term upside drivers: product-cycle inflection (Proteograph ONE/SP200), large-scale study momentum (10k/20k), and early Thermo partnership revenue recognition beginning in Q3 .
  • Revenue quality: Mix tilted to consumables/services supports margins over time; expect quarterly variability as instrument installs/training ebb and flow .
  • Guidance risk balanced: FY revenue reiterated despite policy uncertainty (tariffs/MFN) and NIH/government funding visibility; watch H2 purchasing cadence .
  • Capital position: ~$263.3M cash/investments with stated belief of sufficient capital to reach cash flow breakeven; ongoing buybacks signal confidence and reduce share count (~13% net reduction) .
  • Adoption funnel: STAC remains a powerful conversion channel (>50% of Q2 shipments from STAC users), suggesting durable demand despite elongated sales cycles .
  • Competitive positioning: Unbiased, scalable proteomics increasingly favored for discovery; complementary to targeted methods; narrative supports multi-year content generation tailwind .
  • Trading angle: Track execution against population-scale pipelines and Thermo-driven opportunities; a sustained beat-and-raise would be re-rating constructive, but macro headlines and margin variability can drive volatility .