SI
Seer, Inc. (SEER)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 2025 revenue was $4.051M, up 32% year over year, with gross margin at 52%; net loss was $19.4M, and EPS was -$0.33 . Versus S&P Global consensus, Seer delivered a revenue beat ($4.051M vs $3.750M*) and an EPS beat (-$0.33 vs -$0.37206*) driven by higher product and service revenue .
- Seer reiterated FY 2025 revenue guidance of $17–$18M and guided FY 2025 free cash flow loss to $40–$45M; management flagged macro headwinds (tariffs, NIH/government funding uncertainty) and elongated sales cycles .
- Strategic milestones: launch of high-throughput Proteograph ONE assay and SP200 instrument, a 20,000-sample Korea University study, and continued STAC-to-instrument conversions; expanded Thermo Fisher co-marketing with early revenue expected from the partnership beginning in Q3 .
- Share repurchases continue: ~3.9M Class A shares bought in Q2 at ~$1.92 average; cumulative ~10.7M shares since authorization, reducing net shares outstanding ~13% .
- Stock-relevant catalysts: product-cycle inflection (Proteograph ONE/SP200), population-scale study wins, partnership pipeline maturation, and sustained revenue guidance despite macro caution .
Note: Values marked with * are from S&P Global.
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Launch milestones: “a pivotal milestone with the launches of our high-throughput Proteograph ONE assay and SP200 instrument,” enhancing scale and efficiency .
- Population-scale validation: announced a 20,000-sample study with Korea University and referenced a 10,000-sample study with Discovery Life Sciences; management framed this as enabling deep, unbiased proteomics “at scale” .
- Commercial traction: “over half of our instrument shipments were acquired by customers who had previously accessed STAC,” highlighting STAC as a conversion funnel; Thermo Fisher co-marketing training completed (US/EU) with active opportunities building .
What Went Wrong
- Gross margin mixed: Q2 gross margin 52% (vs 56% prior-year) as instrument installation/training costs weighed; management expects quarter-to-quarter variability by revenue mix .
- Macro headwinds: elongated sales cycles, budgets under pressure, uncertainty around NIH/government funding and tariff/MFN proposals led customers to delay purchases; management reaffirmed guidance but remained cautious .
- Cash burn: free cash flow loss ~$27.3M for the six months ended 6/30/2025 (clarified during Q&A), reflecting investment intensity amid scaling; FY FCF loss expected at $40–$45M .
Financial Results
Consolidated Performance vs Prior Periods
Q2 2025 Actual vs S&P Global Consensus
Note: Values marked with * are from S&P Global.
Revenue Components (Segment-like)
Selected KPIs and Balance Sheet
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Our team delivered a solid second quarter and achieved a pivotal milestone with the launches of our high-throughput Proteograph ONE assay and SP200 instrument, which significantly enhance the scalability and efficiency of our platform.” — Omid Farokhzad, CEO .
- “We ended the quarter with $4,100,000 of revenue… and a strong balance sheet of approximately $263,000,000 in cash, cash equivalents and investments.” .
- “We… believe there is a significant dislocation between our core value proposition and what our stock price reflects today.” — on share repurchases .
- “We continue to expect revenue to be in the range of $17,000,000 to $18,000,000 for 2025… [but] customers will continue to face headwinds from budget constraints… and broader macroeconomic volatility including potential tariffs.” — David Horn, CFO .
Q&A Highlights
- Proteograph ONE uptake: Early KOL feedback “has been fantastic,” with doubled throughput, ~4.5-hour runs, and enabling population-scale studies (10k and 20k) .
- STAC pipeline: Majority of first-half shipments from former STAC customers; management expects similar dynamics in H2 .
- Thermo partnership: Revenue contribution “extremely modest” to date; first revenue expected to be recognized in Q3; pipeline growing post sales force training .
- Competitive landscape: Seer positions as the “only truly unbiased, scalable, and deep proteomics platform” versus targeted and novel detector approaches; customers increasingly lean toward untargeted discovery for large content .
- Clarification: Free cash flow loss of ~$27.3M is for the six months ended 6/30/2025, not the quarter .
Estimates Context
- Q2 2025 beat vs consensus: Revenue $4.051M vs $3.750M*; EPS -$0.33 vs -$0.37206* — both beats driven by higher product and service revenue and despite margin variability from installation/training costs .
- Forward consensus snapshots: Q3 2025 revenue ~$4.0M*, Q4 2025 ~$4.6M*; EPS remains negative in forecasts (-$0.30* to -$0.32*) reflecting ongoing investment and mix [GetEstimates].
- Implication: Street models may need to reflect growing population-scale cohorts and STAC-to-instrument conversion, tempered by macro constraints and variable quarterly margin mix .
Note: Values marked with * are from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Near-term upside drivers: product-cycle inflection (Proteograph ONE/SP200), large-scale study momentum (10k/20k), and early Thermo partnership revenue recognition beginning in Q3 .
- Revenue quality: Mix tilted to consumables/services supports margins over time; expect quarterly variability as instrument installs/training ebb and flow .
- Guidance risk balanced: FY revenue reiterated despite policy uncertainty (tariffs/MFN) and NIH/government funding visibility; watch H2 purchasing cadence .
- Capital position: ~$263.3M cash/investments with stated belief of sufficient capital to reach cash flow breakeven; ongoing buybacks signal confidence and reduce share count (~13% net reduction) .
- Adoption funnel: STAC remains a powerful conversion channel (>50% of Q2 shipments from STAC users), suggesting durable demand despite elongated sales cycles .
- Competitive positioning: Unbiased, scalable proteomics increasingly favored for discovery; complementary to targeted methods; narrative supports multi-year content generation tailwind .
- Trading angle: Track execution against population-scale pipelines and Thermo-driven opportunities; a sustained beat-and-raise would be re-rating constructive, but macro headlines and margin variability can drive volatility .