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Seer, Inc. (SEER)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue was $4.0M, down 10% year over year on lower instrument sales and no grant revenue; gross margin improved to 51% vs 45% in Q4’23 as mix shifted toward consumables/services .
  • FY25 revenue guidance introduced at $17–$18M (+24% y/y at the midpoint); management also guided FY25 gross margin to 50%–53% and free cash flow loss to $40–$45M .
  • Cash, cash equivalents and investments were ~$300M at year-end; management reiterated belief this is sufficient to reach cash flow breakeven; 6.5M shares were repurchased in 2024 (~10% reduction) at an average $1.82 .
  • Strategic and demand catalysts include the Thermo Fisher co-marketing channel (fully operationalized in 2Q25), stronger instrument placement pipeline vs 2024, and rising STAC demand/ASP; caution persists around NIH/government funding uncertainty (government ~12% of 2024 revenue; academia ~18%) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Mix-driven gross margin expansion to 51% (vs 45% LY) on higher consumables/services; management sees FY25 GM 50%–53% and 70%–75% at scale .
  • Commercial traction via STAC: strong demand, repeat rates (~25% of customers), increasing ASPs; 135+ customers served across 20 countries; channel partners across EMEA/APAC, and Thermo Fisher partnership expanding access .
  • Robust platform validation: 30+ customer publications (23 in 2024), HUPO highlights, and emerging population-scale study discussions; CEO: “confidence…has never been greater” .

What Went Wrong

  • Topline contraction: Q4 revenue fell 10% y/y to $4.0M on weaker instrument sales and no grant revenue; Q4 operating expenses rose 5% y/y, widening net loss y/y .
  • Capex headwinds persisted; elongated sales cycles continued to weigh on outright instrument purchases through 2024 .
  • NIH/government funding uncertainty driving pauses and timing delays among government/academic customers; management adjusted outlook assumptions accordingly .

Financial Results

Quarterly revenue and gross margin progression

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($M)$3.1 $4.0 $4.0
Gross Margin (%)56% 48% 51%

Q4 year-over-year comparison

MetricQ4 2023Q4 2024
Revenue ($M)$4.438 $4.000
Gross Profit ($M)$2.001 $2.025
Gross Margin (%)45% 51%
Operating Expenses ($M)$24.233 $25.513
Loss from Operations ($M)$(22.232) $(23.488)
Net Loss ($M)$(17.799) $(21.742)
Net Loss per Share (basic/diluted)$(0.28) $(0.37)

Q4 2024 revenue breakdown

Revenue Component ($M)Q4 2023Q4 2024
Product$2.669 $2.351
Service$0.944 $1.209
Related Party$0.567 $0.389
Grant & Other$0.258 $0.051
Total Revenue$4.438 $4.000

Select full-year 2024 figures (for context)

MetricFY 2023FY 2024
Revenue ($M)$16.661 $14.170
Gross Profit ($M)$8.506 $7.055
Operating Expenses ($M)$111.969 $107.156
Net Loss ($M)$(86.277) $(86.599)

KPIs and balance sheet items

KPIValue
Instruments shipped in 2024 (cumulative shipped to date)10 shipped; 72 cumulative as of 12/31/24
Installed base (year-end 2024)49
Consumable pull-through per installed instrument (2024)~$174,000
Customers served (lifetime) / Large biopharma135+ customers; 12 large biopharma
Cash, cash equivalents & investments (12/31/24)~ $300M
2024 share repurchases~6.5M shares at $1.82 avg; ~10% reduction

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueFY 2025N/A$17–$18M (+24% y/y at midpoint) New
Gross MarginFY 2025N/A50%–53% New
Free Cash Flow LossFY 2025N/A$(40)–$(45)M New

Notes: Management reiterated long-term gross margin target of 70%–75% at scale .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2024 (Prior-2)Q3 2024 (Prior-1)Q4 2024 (Current)Trend
Demand/Capex environmentElongated sales cycles; STAC lowers barriers; EU STAC launched Capex still tough but improving tone; Thermo partnership announced Expect faster instrument placements in 2025 vs 2024; channel buildout and Thermo salesforce training Improving pipeline; cautious on timing
STAC trajectoryStrategic projects at lower ASP to seed data Strong pipeline; strategic pricing continued Higher volumes and ASP, ~25% repeat customers; capacity near steady-state Positive mix/ASP; capacity-limited
Publications/validation21 total (10 preprints, 11 peer-reviewed) with notable studies Growing KOL validation; large-cohort interest 30+ publications; HUPO showcases; deep cellular proteomics workflow Accelerating validation
Partnerships—Thermo Fisher co-marketing (non-exclusive) Thermo sales enablement completes 1Q25; modest contribution assumed in FY25 guide Execution phase
Government/academic exposure——NIH/government uncertainty; 12% gov’t, 18% academic in 2024; reflected in guide Key risk to monitor
Profitability/cash2024 FCF loss to improve vs 2023 Reiterated cash balance; buybacks FY25 FCF loss guide $(40)–$(45)M; ~$300M cash seen sufficient to reach breakeven Cash runway intact

Management Commentary

  • “We saw a surge in customer publications, strong demand for STAC… I believe we are well-positioned for a stronger year in 2025 and my confidence…has never been greater.” – Omid Farokhzad, CEO .
  • “We now have six channel partners… and expect to complete [Thermo Fisher] sales force training in the first quarter of 2025.” .
  • “For 2024, the consumable spend across [the] installed base represents a pull-through per instrument of approximately $174,000.” – David Horn, CFO .
  • “We believe…with our current cash…we have sufficient capital to reach cash flow breakeven.” – David Horn .
  • “Our guidance range assumes continued macroeconomic uncertainty… NIH and government funding environment remains extremely uncertain and volatile.” – David Horn .

Q&A Highlights

  • 2025 revenue mix/pace: Expect more instrument placements than 2024; product vs service mix similar to 2024 (~72% product/27% service) while consumables remain significant .
  • STAC pipeline/pricing: STAC running near intended capacity with increasing ASPs as lighthouse/strategic pricing rolls off; ~25% repeat rate; 1/3 of projects involve model organisms .
  • NIH/government funding: ~12% of 2024 revenue from government entities and ~18% from academia; uncertainty driving timing delays; reflected cautiously in guidance .
  • Thermo Fisher partnership: Training underway; fully operationalized in 2Q25; contribution assumed modest in FY25 guidance while offering potential sales cycle benefits .
  • Installed base/pull-through: Year-end installed base 49; 2024 consumable pull-through ~$174k per installed instrument; management will update annually, not quarterly .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q4 2024 and adjacent periods could not be retrieved due to an S&P Global API limit. We therefore cannot quantify beats/misses versus consensus in this recap. We will update this section once S&P Global access is restored.
  • Management’s FY25 revenue guidance of $17–$18M and gross margin guide of 50%–53% should inform near-term estimate revisions; also incorporate FY25 FCF loss guide of $(40)–$(45)M and cautious assumptions for NIH/academic demand .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Mix improved: Despite soft instruments, gross margin expanded to 51% on stronger services/consumables; FY25 GM guided to 50%–53%—watch mix and consumable pull-through vs installed base growth .
  • Topline trajectory: FY25 revenue guide +24% y/y implies acceleration on instrument placements plus consumables; channel expansion (Thermo + 6 partners) is a key execution driver .
  • Cash runway: ~$300M in liquidity and lower guided FCF burn ($40–$45M) support multi-year execution and reduce financing risk; management targets cash flow breakeven with current cash .
  • STAC as wedge: Capacity-constrained but higher-ASP and repeat demand suggest sustained adoption catalyst; look for conversion of STAC users to owned instruments and larger cohort studies .
  • Risk monitor: NIH/government/academic funding uncertainty remains a notable headwind; sensitivity reflected in guide—track award flows and academic budget clarity through 1H25 .
  • Catalysts: Thermo Fisher channel fully live in 2Q25; potential population-scale studies; further peer-reviewed publications and HUPO/major conference visibility .
  • Capital allocation: Ongoing buyback authorization remaining as of year-end supports per-share metrics; management actions reduced dilution (RSU net share settlement) .

Appendix: Source Documents

  • 8-K and Press Release: Q4/FY2024 results, FY25 guide, financial statements .
  • Earnings Call Transcript (Q4 2024): Prepared remarks and Q&A on demand, STAC, Thermo channel, guidance, cash/FCF .
  • Prior Quarters: Q3 2024 and Q2 2024 transcripts for trend analysis (mix, margins, Thermo partnership announcement, STAC dynamics) .
  • Additional Q4-adjacent press releases: HUPO participation, TD Cowen conference .