Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
- Significant increase in customer validation and publications, with over 30 publications in 2024, and expectations for this pace to continue or accelerate in 2025. This growing body of evidence is accelerating adoption by others, as seen with 12 posters and presentations at the recent HUPO conference.
- Expected increase in instrument placements in 2025, with the company seeing a very different pace compared to 2024 and feeling very good about the guidance provided. This is attributed to a strengthening pipeline and the progressively strengthening tailwind from customer validation, despite macroeconomic challenges.
- Strong demand for the STAC program from large pharma and repeat customers, leading to increased volumes and increased prices. The company is very optimistic for 2025, noting that about 1/3 of projects were model organisms, highlighting the versatility and growing adoption of their technology.
- STAC Revenue Plateau Expected: Seer's CEO stated that the STAC (Seer Technology Access Center) is running at expected capacity and they are not planning to add additional capacity, indicating that STAC revenue will begin to plateau. This could limit future revenue growth from this segment.
- Uncertainty Due to NIH Funding: Management acknowledged uncertainty and anxiety among customers due to potential reductions in NIH funding. This has caused some customers to pause or delay purchases, potentially impacting sales growth.
- Lack of Guidance on Consumable Pull-Through: The company is not providing guidance on consumable pull-through per instrument and notes that it's customer-dependent. This lack of visibility can make it difficult for investors to predict future revenue streams from consumables.
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
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Total Revenue | –10% (from $4.44M in Q4 2023 to $4.0M in Q4 2024) | Revenue declined primarily due to weaker product, related party, and grant revenue despite a 27% increase in service revenue. Product revenue fell by 12% (from $2.67M to $2.35M), related party revenue dropped 33% (from $0.57M to $0.38M), and grant & other revenue declined 80% (from $0.26M to $0.05M). |
Product Revenue | –12% (from $2.67M in Q4 2023 to $2.35M in Q4 2024) | The decline in product revenue is driven by lower overall product sales, which contrasts with the previous period where Q3 2024 showed a significant 58% growth versus Q3 2023. This drop may reflect market challenges and changing customer purchase behaviors in the capital equipment segment. |
Service Revenue | +27% (from $0.95M in Q4 2023 to $1.21M in Q4 2024) | The increase in service revenue is attributed to strong customer interest in the Seer Technology Access Center (STAC) program, which builds on previous periods’ momentum. This growth supports a broader strategic shift towards service solutions despite overall revenue headwinds. |
Related Party Revenue | –33% (from $0.57M in Q4 2023 to $0.38M in Q4 2024) | The significant decline indicates a reduction in related party sales, a shift from previous periods where related party revenue either grew modestly or, as seen in Q3 2024, declined sharply. This suggests potential strategic reallocation or contracting of related party transactions. |
Grant & Other Revenue | –80% (from $0.26M in Q4 2023 to $0.05M in Q4 2024) | This dramatic drop reflects the absence of grant funding in Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023, where the company benefited from its SBIR grant, underscoring a reliance on non-recurring funding sources in prior periods. |
Operating Income (EBIT) | –5.6% (loss worsening from $22.232M to $23.488M) | The deterioration in EBIT is mainly due to rising operating costs that were not fully offset by revenue, including higher cost pressures despite attempts to control expenses. The shift in revenue mix toward lower margin products (e.g., the drop in grant revenue) exacerbated the operating loss compared to the previous period. |
Net Income & EPS | –32% (Net loss deepened from –$17.799M to –$42.307M and EPS from –$0.28 to –$0.37) | The sharp deepening in net loss and EPS decline is driven by the worsening operating performance combined with drops in other income components. Changes in the revenue mix, along with possible effects from share repurchases (3.7M shares repurchased in Q3 2024 impacting EPS), further compounded the result, contrasting with the modest improvements observed in previous periods. |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
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Revenue | FY 2025 | $13 million to $15 million | $17 million to $18 million | raised |
Free Cash Flow Loss | FY 2025 | Estimated to be less than the free cash flow loss in 2023 | $40 million to $45 million | no prior guidance |
Gross Margin | FY 2025 | around 50% (with a trend of approx. 49%–49.5%) | 50% to 53% | raised |
Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
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Revenue | FY 2024 | $13 million to $15 million | $14.168 million (Sum of Q1 2024: 3.066+ Q2 2024: 3.072+ Q3 2024: 4.03+ Q4 2024: 4) | Met |
Gross Margin | 2H FY 2024 | ~50% | Q3 2024 ≈ 48% (Revenue: 4.032; COGS: 2.094) and Q4 2024 ≈ 51% (Revenue: 4; COGS: 1.975) → ~49.3% average for the back half of FY 2024 | Met |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
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Peer‐reviewed publications | Consistently featured across Q1 through Q3 as a driver for adoption with mentions of specific publication counts (e.g., Q2 cited 10 preprints and 11 peer‐reviewed papers , Q1 highlighted initial publications to spur adoption , and Q3 noted growing publication activity ) | Emphasized in Q4 with 33 customer publications and 23 new peer‐reviewed publications along with a highlighted head‐to‐head comparative study for scientific validation | Strengthening emphasis with higher publication counts and more robust scientific validation, reinforcing the technology’s credibility |
STAC program dynamics | Discussed in Q1 as a means to lower entry barriers (full capacity noted ), in Q2 with European expansion and strong demand ( ) and in Q3 with continued strong demand and strategic investments ( ) | Detailed in Q4 highlighting strong demand from pharma and academia, clear capacity limits at U.S. and European facilities, and an expected revenue plateau due to fixed capacity | Consistent focus with an increased discussion on capacity constraints and revenue plateau dynamics in Q4 |
Budget constraints and extended sales cycles | Addressed in Q1 with comments on budgetary impacts from large biopharma customers ; in Q2 stressing elongated sales cycles due to limited CapEx ; and in Q3 noting persistent CapEx pressures affecting deal timing | In Q4, reiterated with a focus on tough CapEx conditions in 2024, extended sales cycles for new instruments, and caution in deal timing | Persistent macro challenges with cautious sentiment that remains consistent across periods while underscoring ongoing uncertainty |
Sales pipeline shift from commercial to academic | Introduced in Q2 with a noted reversal of pipeline splits (from 60% commercial to 60% academic) and further discussed in Q3 by quantifying the split at 60% commercial vs. 40% academic for closed accounts | Not mentioned in Q4 earnings call | Topic has disappeared in the current period, suggesting either a deprioritization or integration of the discussion into broader narratives |
Strategic partnerships and market expansion | Addressed in Q1 with emphasis on the Thermo Fisher collaboration and launch of a European STAC lab ( ), in Q2 with details of an early Thermo Fisher study and European lab launch ( ), and in Q3 with specifics of non‐exclusive Thermo Fisher partnership and strong European STAC uptake ( ) | In Q4, reaffirmed with a newly announced co‐marketing and sales agreement with Thermo Fisher and further expansion details of the European STAC lab | Consistent and reinforcing strategic partnerships that continue to drive market expansion, reflecting sustained optimism about global adoption |
Instrument placements driven by a strengthening pipeline | Mentioned sporadically in Q1 via the Strategic Instrument Placement Program (SIPP) leading to initial placements and indirectly in Q3 through product revenue growth in instruments; absent or less emphasized in Q2 discussions | Q4 emphasizes a stronger pipeline with expectations for increased instrument placements in 2025 driven by customer validation and technology performance | Emerging as a more clearly articulated narrative in Q4, indicating a forward‐looking optimism about future growth through enhanced pipeline strength |
Uncertainty in revenue guidance, consumable pull‐through, and margin forecasts | Detailed in Q1 with lower Q1 margins, consumable kit sales challenges, and revised revenue guidance ( ); in Q2 discussed with revised 2024 guidance and noted gross margin variability ( ); and in Q3 mentioned with uncertainty over deal timing and steady margins ( ) | In Q4, guidance is cautiously optimistic for 2025 with expectations for revenue growth, detailed consumable pull‐through numbers, and margin targets (50% to 53% for 2025, though acknowledging macro uncertainty) | Mixed sentiment that has evolved from cautious performance reviews to an optimistic outlook for 2025, while uncertainty remains due to external factors |
Impact of external funding uncertainties (NIH funding reductions) | Not mentioned in Q1, Q2, or Q3 discussions | Introduced in Q4 with explicit discussion of NIH funding reductions potentially impacting about 30% of revenue, reflecting broader concerns about government funding | New and potentially high‐impact concern that could significantly affect future revenue dynamics if funding challenges persist |
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NIH Budget Uncertainty
Q: How are NIH risks affecting customers and trends?
A: Management noted that about 12% of 2024 revenue came from government entities and 18% from academic groups, totaling 30% of overall revenue. They acknowledged general anxiety among customers due to NIH funding uncertainties, leading some to pause purchases. However, they have factored this caution into their guidance and remain optimistic that science funding will prevail. -
2025 Guidance and Instrument Placements
Q: How should we think about instruments vs. consumables in 2025?
A: Management expects instrument placements in 2025 to be meaningfully higher than the 10 instruments placed in 2024, particularly in the first half. Despite a tough 2024 and NIH budget uncertainties, they feel good about the guidance provided. The product revenue breakdown is expected to be similar to 2024, with products around 72% and services about 27% of overall revenue. -
Thermo Fisher Collaboration Impact
Q: What's the expected impact of the Thermo partnership in 2025?
A: Management is training the Thermo sales force and expects the partnership to be fully operational by Q2. While they have been modest in including this in their guidance, they are excited about the potential. The agreement is nonexclusive, allowing flexibility to work with other mass spec providers, and they are exploring additional partnerships. -
Consumables Pull-Through Expectations
Q: What's the outlook for consumables pull-through per instrument?
A: The consumables pull-through per instrument was confirmed at $174,000 in 2024. Management sees room for growth, especially as they engage in larger projects. They are not providing specific guidance but expect to grow the installed base more rapidly this year. -
STAC Program Revenue Outlook
Q: How will STAC revenue progress in 2025?
A: Management expects STAC revenue to plateau, as they are maintaining current capacity and are not aiming to become a service company. Growth has come from increased volumes and higher prices from large pharma and academic customers. They remain optimistic about the STAC program in 2025. -
Publication Pipeline for 2025
Q: What does the 2025 publication pipeline look like?
A: Management is very bullish, with over 30 publications in 2024 and expecting similar velocity in 2025. Customer publications and presentations are accelerating adoption, and they anticipate an exciting year ahead in terms of papers.
Research analysts covering Seer.