Executive Summary

Q2 2024 was a transitional execution quarter: revenue remained minimal while Sera advanced key prerequisites (AVERT publication, PRIME timeline, NY conditional approval for ambient whole‑blood kits) to support potential adoption and revenue inflection in 2025+ .
Revenue was $0.02M and EPS was ($0.25); operating expenses fell 20% YoY as the company maintained tight cost control ahead of expected commercial expansion; net loss narrowed 21% YoY to $8.3M .
Balance sheet remains strong with approximately $80.9M in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities at 6/30/24; FY24 cash opex budget remains around $26M; runway “well into 2027.” S-3 shelf and an ATM with TD Cowen were established for flexibility .
Catalysts and likely stock drivers: publication/presentation of PRIME full dataset (database lock targeted mid‑September; aim to publish in time for spring conferences), payer/guideline momentum, and commercialization of whole‑blood collection (COGS reductions, capacity) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Evidence milestone: AVERT PRETERM Trial published in Diagnostics (front cover), showing 18% reduction in severe neonatal morbidity/mortality, 7‑day reduction in mean hospital LOS for longest‑stay babies, +2.5 weeks gestational age and 28‑day NICU LOS reduction in <32‑week births; strong narrative for clinical and economic value .
Commercial scalability: Conditional approval from New York State for the new ambient whole‑blood collection method; Sera began receiving commercial samples and processing them, improving access, margins, and capacity .
Cost discipline and runway: Total opex down 20% YoY; net loss narrowed 21% YoY; cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities ~ $80.9M with cash opex budget ~ $26M and runway into 2027 .

What Went Wrong

Revenue traction remains limited: Q2 revenue was $24K vs $123K YoY as the company deliberately focuses spend on prerequisites versus near‑term volume; sequential revenue remains de minimis .
R&D spend ticked up: R&D rose ~19% YoY to $4.4M, driven by new product development; while strategic, it partially offset SG&A efficiencies .
Estimate benchmarking: Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) was unavailable via our tool at analysis time, limiting vs‑estimate framing in this report (see Estimates Context).

Financial Results

Income Statement (selected)

Metric	Q2 2023	Q1 2024	Q2 2024
Revenue ($USD Thousands)	$123	$0	$24
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Thousands)	$11,583	$9,097	$9,277
Loss from Operations ($USD Thousands)	$(11,460)	$(9,097)	$(9,253)
Net Loss ($USD Thousands)	$(10,542)	$(8,097)	$(8,303)
EPS, Basic & Diluted ($)	$(0.34)	$(0.25)	$(0.25)

Operating Expense Mix

Metric	Q2 2023	Q1 2024	Q2 2024
Research & Development ($USD Thousands)	$3,688	$3,683	$4,406
Selling & Marketing ($USD Thousands)	$2,872	$1,227	$1,099
General & Administrative ($USD Thousands)	$4,943	$4,170	$3,752

Balance Sheet and Liquidity

Metric	Dec 31, 2023	Mar 31, 2024	Jun 30, 2024
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Thousands)	$3,880	$4,239	$4,664
Marketable Securities – Current ($USD Thousands)	$45,199	$48,734	$46,276
Marketable Securities – Long‑Term ($USD Thousands)	$30,841	$32,386	$30,006
Deferred Revenue ($USD Thousands)	$20,235	$20,231	$20,228
Total Assets ($USD Thousands)	$95,441	$89,886	$84,861
Cash, Cash Equivalents & AFS Securities (Mgmt Quote)	—	—	≈$80.9M (as of 6/30/24)

Notes: Revenues are primarily from the PreTRM Test .

Estimates vs Actuals (Q2 2024)

Consensus estimates from S&P Global were unavailable via our tool at analysis time; therefore, vs‑consensus comparisons are not presented (see Estimates Context).

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Cash Operating Expenses	FY 2024	N/A	Around $26M	New disclosure
Cash Runway	Multi‑year	N/A	“Well into 2027”	New disclosure
Revenue/EPS	FY/Qtr	None provided	None provided	Maintained
Capital Markets	N/A	N/A	Filed S‑3; entered ATM with TD Cowen	New facility (flexibility)

Management did not issue formal revenue, margin, or EPS guidance for Q2/Q3; focus remains on evidence publication, market access, and cost discipline .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q‑2)	Previous Mentions (Q‑1 2024)	Current Period (Q2 2024)	Trend
Evidence (AVERT/PRIME)	Not available in archive	Submitted PRIME interim for publication; PRIME deliveries complete; AVERT/PRIME central to adoption	AVERT published (front cover); PRIME database lock targeted mid‑Sep; aim to publish around spring conferences; engaging guideline bodies	Execution progressed
Sample Collection & COGS	N/A	Validated ambient whole‑blood kits; new lab workflow; up to ~60% COGS reduction; higher capacity/throughput	Receiving commercial samples; NY conditional approval; expecting 35–50%+ COGS reduction vs old process	Operationalization and validation
Commercial Awareness	N/A	TV programs planned; state targeting; international exploration	Launched campaign with leading medical network; ~22,000 HCPs targeted, 23.4% “deep engagement”; TV programs to air before year‑end	Scaling outreach and channels
Payer/Guildelines	N/A	Active engagement; to reconvene near publication	Positive payer feedback on economic value (NICU day savings: screening 3–4 mothers per NICU day); more payer meetings this fall	Building momentum
Capital & Runway	N/A	Cash $85.4M (3/31/24); disciplined opex; optional $5M investments as warranted	Cash ≈$80.9M (6/30/24); FY24 cash opex ~ $26M; runway into 2027; S‑3/ATM established	Runway reiterated; added flexibility

Management Commentary

“Publication illustrated that our PreTRM test‑and‑treat strategy demonstrates statistically and clinically significant improvement in neonatal health outcomes and hospital length of stay.”
“We’ve begun receiving commercial samples from [ambient whole‑blood] kits… benefits… improved physician and patient access… significantly lower cost of goods and significantly increased lab capacity.”
“We… received conditional approval from the New York State for our PreTRM Test utilizing this new collection method… [now] offer… nationwide.”
“As of June 30, 2024, the company had… approximately $80.9 million [in cash and marketable securities]… budgeted cash operating expenses of around $26 million in 2024… runway… well into 2027… filed an S‑3… and entered into an… ATM with TD Cowen.”

Q&A Highlights

Payer reaction to AVERT: Positive, emphasizing NICU day savings; Sera notes only 3–4 expectant mothers need screening to save one NICU day, supporting swift payer ROI; more payer engagements planned in fall .
Investments ahead of 2025: Building key account management, medical science liaisons, rev‑cycle/collections to support scale .
PRIME publication process: Timing partially dependent on full dataset availability; aiming for spring conference submissions/publication once data locked; actively coordinating with journals .
Pipeline economics: While PreTRM expected to be majority of revenue in ~3 years, management expects meaningful contributions from new products (e.g., Time‑to‑Birth) over time .
Unit economics: New workflow expected to reduce COGS by ~35%–50%+, on top of already “really great margins” .

Estimates Context

We attempted to retrieve S&P Global consensus for Q2 2024 revenue/EPS/EBITDA but were unable to access estimates via the tool at analysis time (request‑limit error). As a result, vs‑consensus comparisons are not presented. If needed, we can refresh once S&P Global access is available.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Evidence stack strengthened: AVERT publication provides robust clinical and economic validation; PRIME full dataset and publication next—key catalysts for guideline adoption, payer coverage, and ordering behavior .
Scalability unlocked: Ambient whole‑blood collection and lab workflow now commercial, with NY conditional approval; expected 35–50%+ COGS reduction and higher capacity position Sera for a 2025+ volume inflection .
Prudent spend with runway: Opex down 20% YoY; cash/marketable securities ≈ $80.9M; FY24 cash opex ~ $26M; runway into 2027—enables disciplined execution without near‑term financing needs, while S‑3/ATM add flexibility .
Near‑term prints likely remain light: Q2 revenue was $24K as the company prioritizes pre‑commercial prerequisites; focus remains on evidence, access, and awareness .
Commercial readiness building: Deep HCP engagement (23.4% “deep engagement” across ~22k targets), upcoming TV campaigns, and payer economic models should support awareness and coverage discussions into year‑end .
Watch for guideline and payer milestones: Any guideline statements and payer coverage wins could materially shift adoption and valuation narrative .
Stock setup: High‑beta, catalyst‑driven path—results/publications (PRIME), guideline activity, and early commercialization uptake of whole‑blood collection are likely share‑movement triggers; ATM presence provides capital flexibility but could be an overhang depending on use .

Additional Documents Reviewed (Q2‑relevant)

Q2 2024 8‑K (Item 2.02) with Exhibit 99.1 press release and full financial tables .
Q2 2024 earnings call transcript (August 7, 2024) .
July 9, 2024 AVERT publication press release .
Q1 2024 press release and call (for sequential trend) .

Where we looked for prior two quarters: We included Q1 2024 (press release and transcript). Q4 2023 documents were not available in the archive we searched; if you’d like, we can supplement with 10‑K or other sources once provided.

SERA PROGNOSTICS, INC. (SERA)·Q2 2024 Earnings Summary