Executive Summary

Revenue of $0.687M grew 209% YoY and 7% QoQ, landing slightly below S&P Global consensus ($0.691M, miss of ~$4K); GAAP diluted EPS was $(0.54) versus consensus $(0.32), a larger-than-expected loss due to deliberate scaling and R&D spend . Estimates from S&P Global*.
Delivery volume rose 66% sequentially; fleet revenue grew 31% QoQ to $0.433M, and branding revenue surged 120% QoQ, partially offsetting expected software declines .
Liquidity strong with $210M in cash and marketable securities at quarter-end and an additional $100M raised via registered direct offering in October; company remains debt-light and well-funded for 2,000 robot deployment by mid-December 2025 .
DoorDash multi-year partnership expands platform reach alongside Uber; 1,000th robot milestone achieved, with 380 robots shipped in September, reinforcing scale narrative and utilization flywheel .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Delivery volume +66% QoQ; daily active robots increased to 312 and daily supply hours to 3,781, demonstrating scaling throughput and utilization momentum .
Branding revenue +120% QoQ as fleet scale unlocked new monetization, providing a positive surprise versus prior caution on branding variability .
Strategic partnerships: new multi-year DoorDash deal and continued traction with national QSRs (e.g., Jersey Mike’s), broadening order funnel; CEO: “Combined, Uber and DoorDash serve over 80% of the food delivery market in the United States” .

What Went Wrong

GAAP net loss widened to $(33.0)M, driven by expansion into new cities, M&A integrations (Vayu, Phantom/Voysys), and elevated R&D, with adjusted EBITDA at $(24.95)M .
EPS missed consensus (actual $(0.54) vs $(0.32)), reflecting near-term cost-to-scale as the company builds capacity ahead of 2026 . Estimates from S&P Global*.
Gross margin remained deeply negative due to early-stage operations (gross loss $(4.38)M); cost of revenues ($5.07)M outpaced nascent revenue mix .

Financial Results

Core P&L vs Prior Periods and Estimates

Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025	Q3 2025 Consensus
Revenue ($USD Thousands)	$222	$642	$687	$691.1*
Net Income ($USD Thousands)	$(7,996)	$(20,850)	$(33,020)	—
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$(0.20)	$(0.36)	$(0.54)	$(0.32)*
Gross Profit ($USD Thousands)	$(156)	$(2,859)	$(4,379)	—
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Thousands)	$8,289	$19,785	$30,437	—
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Thousands)	$(6,241)	$(14,944)	$(24,950)	$(14,343.0)*

Notes: Revenue and EPS missed consensus slightly; EBITDA missed by a wider margin as scaling costs pulled forward. Values with asterisk are from S&P Global*.

Segment Breakdown

Segment Revenue ($USD Thousands)	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Software services	$39	$312	$254
Fleet services	$183	$330	$433
Total	$222	$642	$687

KPIs

KPI	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Daily Active Robots	59	160	312
Daily Supply Hours	465	1,723	3,781

Balance Sheet Snapshot (Q3 2025)

Cash and equivalents: $116.839M; cash + marketable securities referenced at $210M; total assets: $299.509M; total equity: $284.268M .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Total Revenue	FY 2025	No explicit prior full-year revenue guide	“Over $2.5M”	Introduced (raised visibility)
Quarterly Revenue	Q3 2025	$0.60M–$0.70M (Q2 guide)	Actual $0.687M (in line)	Achieved high end
Fleet Scale	2025	Deploy 2,000 robots by year-end (Q1/Q2)	2,000th robot expected mid-December (ahead of schedule)	Pulled forward
2026 Revenue Outlook	FY 2026	Annualized run-rate $60–$80M upon target utilization (Q1/Q2)	Maintained; “roughly 10x revenue growth” prelim vs 2025	Maintained; prelim quantified

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 and Q2)	Current Period (Q3)	Trend
AI/Autonomy flywheel	Building data/compute advantages; Gen3 enabling longer hours; focus on foundation models and utilization	Integration of Vayu to accelerate model improvements; higher autonomous runtime and speed; compounding efficiency	Strengthening platform effects
Supply chain/tariffs	Limited impact; BOM reductions offset tariffs	Continued scale manufacturing; modular design; ecosystem maturity (e.g., Ouster lidar) lowering costs	Costs trending down
Partnerships/platform reach	Shake Shack, Little Caesars added; multi-market expansion	New multi-year DoorDash partnership; 3,600 restaurants; interoperability Uber/DoorDash for utilization	Broadening funnel
Product performance	Gen3: longer battery, cargo capacity; hours up; intervention rates down	Average daily operating hours +12.5% QoQ; meaningful reduction in interventions; branding uptick	Operational gains
Regional expansion	Miami, Dallas, Atlanta launches; Chicago planned	Chicago launched; next expansions to Buckhead, Fort Lauderdale, Alexandria	National footprint scaling
Regulatory/community	Playbook integrates with cities; strong safety, reliability	“Nearly 100%” delivery reliability; emphasis on community respect and jobs	Consistent, positive engagement

Management Commentary

CEO: “We are now a national leader in sidewalk robotics, advancing towards a 10x increase in revenue next year… foundation for a future with a million robots deployed globally.”
CFO: “Branding revenue jump[ed] 120% sequentially… fleet revenue is becoming the predictable growth engine we’ve envisioned… models more refined, economics more efficient.”
On DoorDash: “A single robot being able to alternate between deliveries from each platform… increases our utilization, which in turn lowers the cost per delivery.”
On cost-down: “Gen3 robots are a third the cost of our Gen2… design modularity and supply chain maturity (e.g., Ouster lidar) cut per-unit costs.”

Q&A Highlights

2026 scale: Team will share specifics next year; growth with “precision and discipline” prioritizing utilization and efficiency before further fleet additions .
Robot design simplification and cost reductions: Modular architecture, fewer custom assemblies, supply chain optimization, and scaled manufacturing lower unit costs .
DoorDash integration: Multi-modal interoperability to improve utilization and lower cost per delivery; volumes expected to grow under new channel in coming months .
Vayu integration impact: Early in process; expected to raise autonomous speed/runtime and improve unit economics as foundation models are deployed network-wide .
City learnings: Chicago provided rapid ramp to mature SLAs; diverse urban conditions enrich models, making subsequent launches faster and more reliable .

Estimates Context

Revenue: Actual $0.687M vs S&P Global consensus $0.691M — slight miss, consistent with expected short-term software variability . S&P Global*.
EPS: Actual $(0.54) vs S&P Global $(0.32) — bold miss as opex ramps for national footprint, M&A integration, and R&D investments . S&P Global*.
EBITDA: Actual $(24.95)M (adjusted) vs S&P Global consensus $(14.34)M — miss tied to accelerated scaling costs and capacity builds ahead of 2026 . S&P Global*.
Forward consensus (S&P Global*) implies Q4 revenue ~$0.76M, then step-ups in 1H26 alongside utilization ramp.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Near-term P&L pressure is deliberate: the company is front-loading capacity and R&D to support 2026 scale; expect operating leverage to emerge as utilization improves (hours up, interventions down) .
Scale catalysts: DoorDash partnership, 1,000+ robots deployed, Chicago launch, and upcoming Buckhead/Fort Lauderdale/Alexandria expansions drive volume funnel and geographic density .
Monetization mix improving: fleet revenue is the foundation, with branding momentum and recurring software/data opportunities as high-margin accelerants into 2026 .
Liquidity removes funding overhang: $210M cash/securities plus $100M equity raised post-quarter supports 2,000 robot milestone and working capital for expansions .
Watch utilization and autonomy metrics: increased autonomous miles and speed, daily operating hours per robot, and reduction in interventions are leading indicators of margin inflection .
Strategic narrative: multi-platform (Uber + DoorDash) interoperability is a key differentiator that should compress unit costs and improve route economics .
Trading lens: near-term results may remain below EPS expectations, but execution on deployment and utilization likely drives estimate revisions and sentiment as 2026 guidance is formalized .

Footnote: Values marked with an asterisk are retrieved from S&P Global.

Serve Robotics Inc. /DE/ (SERV)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary