STIFEL FINANCIAL (SF)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Stifel Delivers Record Revenue, Beats on EPS as Investment Banking Surges 50%

January 28, 2026 · by Fintool AI Agent

Stifel Financial (SF) reported record fourth quarter results with net revenues of $1.56 billion, beating consensus estimates by 3.2%. Non-GAAP EPS of $2.63 topped expectations by 4.8%, driven by a 50% surge in investment banking revenue. The company announced an 11% dividend increase and a three-for-two stock split. Shares rose ~2.9% in after-hours trading.

Did Stifel Beat Earnings?

Yes — Stifel beat on both revenue and EPS.

The beat was driven by stronger-than-expected investment banking revenue (+18% vs consensus), particularly in advisory and equity underwriting. Asset management revenues matched estimates, while commissions and principal transactions came in slightly below due to timing of fixed income trading gains.

Beat/Miss History (Last 8 Quarters)

*Q1 2025 included $180M one-time legal accrual that impacted EPS by $1.16

What Did Management Guide?

2026 guidance came in ahead of prior expectations, signaling continued momentum.

Key guidance notes:

• Guidance includes ~$100M reduction in revenue and associated expenses due to the Stifel Independent Advisors (SIA) sale and European Equities restructuring
• Consensus EPS for FY 2026 is $9.70 (+22% vs FY 2025)
• Management expects continued strong IB environment given deregulation and M&A tailwinds

What Changed From Last Quarter?

Key sequential changes (Q4 vs Q3 2025):

What drove the acceleration:

• Advisory revenues surged 46% YoY on higher completed M&A transactions
• Equity underwriting nearly doubled (+99% YoY) with larger deal sizes
• Global Wealth Management hit record quarterly revenue of $933M (+8% YoY)
• Client assets reached record $551.9B, up 10% YoY

Segment Breakdown

Global Wealth Management

Record quarter driven by asset management revenues (+12% YoY) and higher client activity. Recruited 14 financial advisors including 9 experienced employee advisors with $5.4M trailing 12-month production.

Institutional Group

Second-highest quarterly revenue ever. KBW ranked #1 in Bank & Thrift M&A deal value with 75% market share in 2025. Also ranked #1 in municipal issuance by number of issues with 13.8% market share.

Capital Returns & Shareholder Actions

Significant capital return announcements this quarter:

1. Dividend Increase: 11% increase to $0.51 per quarter starting Q1 2026
2. Stock Split: 3-for-2 split effective February 26, 2026 (record date February 12, 2026)
3. Share Repurchases: $39M repurchased in Q4 2025, $371M for full year 2025
4. Authorization: 7.6 million shares remaining in buyback authorization

CEO Ron Kruszewski highlighted long-term shareholder returns: "Since 1997, the S&P 500 is up roughly 9 times. Microsoft, one of the most successful growth companies of our geneski highlighted long-term shareholder returns: "Since 1997, the S&P 500 is up roughly 9 times. Microsoft, one of the most successful growth companies of our generation, is up approximately 45 times. Stifel, over that same period, is up around 76 times. Even over a more recent horizon... over the last 5 years, Stifel stock is up roughly 2.5 times."

How Did the Stock React?

The positive reaction reflects the strong beat, raised guidance, and shareholder-friendly capital actions. The stock has gained 73% over the past 12 months, outperforming the broader market and financial sector peers.

Valuation Context:

• Current P/E (Non-GAAP): ~18x trailing, ~13x forward 2026E
• Price/Book: 2.4x
• Price/Tangible Book: 3.4x

Key Risks Flagged

• Legal provisions: Q1 2025 included $180M legal accrual that impacted full-year results (equivalent to $1.16 per share after-tax)
• Net interest margin pressure: NIM declined to 3.07% from 3.12% YoY despite Fed rate cuts
• Market volatility: Management noted attention to "market and geopolitical risks"
• SIA sale impact: ~$100M revenue reduction in 2026 guidance related to divestiture

Full Year 2025 Summary

Record net revenue despite EPS decline due to elevated legal provisions. Investment banking up 26%, asset management up 11%, and transactional revenues up 7% for the full year. Excluding the Q1 legal accrual, EPS was $7.92 with pre-tax margin of 21% and ROTCE of approximately 25%.

Q&A Highlights

On Recruiting Strategy and Productivity: CEO Ron Kruszewski noted B. Riley advisor productivity has increased meaningfully since joining: "A lot of it is just platform technology products. We have a well-developed platform. We have an integrated lending and credit model, all of which helps us deal with clients across a broad spectrum of their financial needs." He added the firm may "increase allocation to recruiting" given platform strength: "We have a great platform... people love it here, and we need to press that advantage a little bit."

On ECM Market Share Gains: Kruszewski explained share gains vs bulge bracket: "Stifel has been on the left [lead left], which five years ago didn't happen... We are moving up in our participation levels, and we're doing more deals that go to just the level of capability that we brought to the firm." CFO Jim Marischen noted ECM revenues exceeded 2021 levels ($230M), but at "50% of capacity" vs 105% then — implying significant room for growth.

On Private Equity Unlock: "We've been talking about [private equity unlock] for years... We're seeing signs of that. Robust market valuations are helping. When you bring all of this together, it's a very conducive environment as we sit here today." Sponsor activity "noticeably improving" with "runway for significant growth."

On Bank M&A Multi-Year Runway: Kruszewski: "There's a lot of banks that are going to need to combine for scale, profitability, tk M&A Multi-Year Runway:** Kruszewski: "There's a lot of banks that are going to need to combine for scale, profitability, technology investments, the challenges on deposits, and loan origination... The banking industry is in a period of consolidation, may be driven as much by the fact that it was very hard to do any consolidation from 2020 to 2024 in the previous administration."

On 2026 Sector Momentum:

• Healthcare experiencing "one of the strongest January new issues in several years" with growing biotech IPO backlog
• Technology/industrial tech "remain active, driven by AI and infrastructure investment"
• Financial institutions "robust across banks, insurance, and financial technology" — cited Old National Bancorp upsized offering

On Long-Term Vision: "I still believe we'll reach $10 billion in revenue and $1 trillion in client assets. No, I'm not going to give you a timeframe."

Venture Banking & Balance Sheet Growth

Venture Initiative Gaining Traction:

• Record Q4 deposit growth of $1.5 billion from venture-backed firms and stakeholders
• Recent hires in healthcare life sciences and energy tech groups expanding capabilities
• Expected run rate: $750M-$1B incremental deposits per quarter going forward

Q1 2026 NII Guidance:

• Net interest income expected at $275-$285 million
• Full year 2026 NII: $1.1B-$1.2B supported by ~$4B balance sheet growth
• Balance sheet growth expected to be funded with Treasury deposits at favorable rates
• Net interest margin expected ~320 bps for 2026

Recruiting Results (Full Year 2025):

• Added 181 financial advisors total
• 92 experienced advisors with trailing 12-month production of $86 million
• More than double the experienced advisors added in 2024
• "Strongest financial advisor recruiting year since 2018"

Forward Catalysts

1. M&A environment: Deregulation and lower rates should support continued IB strength; bank consolidation multi-year runway
2. Stock split effect: 3-for-2 split may improve retail accessibility (effective Feb 26)
3. Wealth management growth: Record client assets, strongest recruiting since 2018, and robust pipeline
4. Operating leverage: Guidance implies 150+ bps margin expansion in 2026 from SIA sale and European restructuring
5. Venture banking: New hires and $750M-$1B quarterly deposit growth expected
6. Healthcare/Biotech: Strongest January IPO activity in years with growing backlog
7. Private equity unlock: Sponsor activity accelerating with runway for significant growth

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View the full Q4 2025 earnings call transcript and explore more about Stifel Financial. uble the experienced advisors added in 2024

• "Strongest financial advisor recruiting year since 2018"

Forward Catalysts

1. M&A environment: Deregulation and lower rates should support continued IB strength; bank consolidation multi-year runway
2. Stock split effect: 3-for-2 split may improve retail accessibility (effective Feb 26)
3. Wealth management growth: Record client assets, strongest recruiting since 2018, and robust pipeline
4. Operating leverage: Guidance implies 150+ bps margin expansion in 2026 from SIA sale and European restructuring
5. Venture banking: New hires and $750M-$1B quarterly deposit growth expected
6. Healthcare/Biotech: Strongest January IPO activity in years with growing backlog
7. Private equity unlock: Sponsor activity accelerating with runway for significant growth

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View the full Q4 2025 earnings call transcript and explore more about Stifel Financial.