Executive Summary

Q4 2024 delivered revenue of $3.951B and operating profit of $335M (8.5% margin); adjusted operating profit was $315M (8.0% margin), driven by Packaged Meats strength and narrowing Hog Production losses .
Versus S&P Global consensus, revenue modestly beat ($3.95B actual vs $3.91B estimate) while EPS modestly missed ($0.56 GAAP EPS vs $0.53 estimate; adjusted EPS $0.52) — a mixed print with resilient margins in Packaged Meats despite raw material inflation . Estimates marked with an asterisk are from S&P Global.
Management initiated FY2025 guidance: total adjusted operating profit $1.1–$1.3B; Packaged Meats $1.05–$1.15B; Fresh Pork $150–$250M; Hog Production -$50M to $50M; CapEx $400–$500M; tax rate 23–25%; and declared a $0.25 quarterly dividend (targeting $1.00 annual) .
Potential near-term catalyst: explicit 50% dividend payout policy noted in Q&A, coupled with improving Hog Production profitability trajectory and strong liquidity (net debt/adj. EBITDA 0.8x) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Packaged Meats delivered $313M operating profit (12.7% margin) in Q4, with year-over-year margin stability amid higher bellies/hams; management cites cost savings and mix optimization toward lunch meat and dry sausage .
Quote: “another year of record profits in our Packaged Meats segment... margins have more than doubled” — Shane Smith .
Fresh Pork operating profit rose to $70M (up 57% YoY), supported by strong demand and value-added retail mix (case-ready/marinated), even as spreads tightened; USDA cutout up ~10% YoY in Q4 .
Quote: “product innovation in new marinated flavors helped drive… more than offset higher hog prices and tighter market spread” — Mark Hall .
Balance sheet strength: $3.245B liquidity (cash $943M), CFO reiterated policy of <2x net debt/EBITDA; ended FY24 at 0.8x; cash from operations $916M .
Quote: “Our liquidity was $3.2 billion… net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was 0.8x” — Mark Hall .

What Went Wrong

Consolidated sales declined 1.2% YoY (to $3.951B), with inter-segment eliminations and lower Hog Production/Other sales weighing despite stronger Packaged Meats/Fresh Pork .
Hog Production still posted a small operating loss (-$8M) in Q4, though a vast improvement vs. -$131M last year; input relief still developing and derivative mark-to-market impacts remain a watch item .
Tariff/geopolitical uncertainty (Mexico/Canada/China) created export disruptions; management emphasized contingency planning and flexibility across channels, but risks persist .
Quote: “we are closely monitoring the tariff and geopolitical environment… we have built flexibility into our system” — Shane Smith .

Financial Results

Consolidated performance vs prior quarter and prior year

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q4 2023
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$3.334	$3.951	$3.998
Operating Profit ($USD Millions)	$285	$335	$(116)
Operating Margin (%)	8.5%	8.5%	(2.9)%
Diluted EPS - Continuing Ops ($)	$0.53	$0.56	$(0.37)
Adjusted Diluted EPS - Continuing Ops ($)	$0.53	$0.52	$0.31

Segment breakdown (Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023)

Segment	Q4 2024 Sales ($MM, pre-elims)	Q4 2023 Sales ($MM, pre-elims)	Q4 2024 Operating Profit ($MM)	Q4 2023 Operating Profit ($MM)	Q4 2024 Op Margin (%)	Q4 2023 Op Margin (%)
Packaged Meats	$2,458	$2,404	$313	$306	12.7%	12.7%
Fresh Pork	$2,002	$1,836	$70	$45	3.5%	2.4%
Hog Production	$782	$819	$(8)	$(131)	(1.0)%	(15.9)%
Other	$121	$178	$17	$13	13.7%	7.1%
Corporate	N/A	N/A	$(62)	$(25)	N/A	N/A
Unallocated	N/A	N/A	$4	$(324)	N/A	N/A
Consolidated	$3,951	$3,998	$335	$(116)	8.5%	(2.9)%

KPIs

KPI	Q4 2024	Q4 2023
Liquidity ($MM)	$3,245 (Cash $943; Credit $2,303)	N/A
Cash from Operations ($MM)	$916	$688
Net Debt ($MM)	$1,059	$1,345
Net Debt / Adjusted EBITDA (x)	0.8x	2.2x
Capital Expenditures ($MM, FY)	$350	$353
Dividend (declared)	$0.25 per share	N/A

Actual vs Consensus (Q4 2024)

Metric	Actual	Consensus Estimate
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$3.951	$3.915*
Primary EPS ($)	$0.56	$0.533*

Values with an asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Total Company Adjusted Operating Profit	Mar 25, 2025 (Q4 release)	—	$1,100–$1,300MM	Initiated
Packaged Meats Adjusted Operating Profit	Mar 25, 2025	—	$1,050–$1,150MM	Initiated
Fresh Pork Adjusted Operating Profit	Mar 25, 2025	—	$150–$250MM	Initiated
Hog Production Adjusted Operating Profit	Mar 25, 2025	—	$(50)–$50MM	Initiated
Sales Growth (YoY)	Mar 25, 2025	—	Low-to-mid single digits	Initiated
CapEx	Mar 25, 2025	—	$400–$500MM	Initiated
Effective Tax Rate	Mar 25, 2025	—	23–25%	Initiated
Dividend	Mar 25, 2025	—	$0.25 quarterly; ~$1.00 annual target	Initiated
Total Company Adjusted Operating Profit	Apr 29, 2025 (Q1)	$1,100–$1,300MM	$1,100–$1,300MM	Maintained
Hog Production Adjusted Operating Profit	Aug 12, 2025 (Q2)	$(50)–$50MM	$0–$100MM	Raised
Total Company Adjusted Operating Profit	Aug 12, 2025 (Q2)	$1,100–$1,300MM	$1,150–$1,350MM	Raised
Packaged Meats Adjusted Operating Profit	Oct 28, 2025 (Q3)	$1,050–$1,150MM	$1,060–$1,110MM	Tightened (midpoint up)
Fresh Pork Adjusted Operating Profit	Oct 28, 2025 (Q3)	$150–$250MM	$150–$200MM	Narrowed
Hog Production Adjusted Operating Profit	Oct 28, 2025 (Q3)	$0–$100MM	$125–$150MM	Raised
Total Company Adjusted Operating Profit	Oct 28, 2025 (Q3)	$1,150–$1,350MM	$1,225–$1,325MM	Raised & Tightened
CapEx	Oct 28, 2025 (Q3)	$400–$500MM	$350–$400MM	Lowered
Effective Tax Rate	Oct 28, 2025 (Q3)	23–25%	23–25%	Reaffirmed

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q-2: Q2 2025)	Previous Mentions (Q-1: Q1 2025)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
Packaged Meats mix optimization (lunch meat, dry sausage)	Emphasis on higher-margin items; 14.2% adj margin despite input inflation; volume up ex-hams; target ~1% volume growth	Double-digit lunch meat/dry sausage growth; 13.1% adj margin; later Easter shifted volume	$313M profit; 12.7% margin; cost savings offset higher bellies/hams	Consistent focus; sustained margin resilience
Tariffs/macro impacts on Fresh Pork exports	China disruption, pivot to alternative markets; spreads compressed; operational cost savings	Outlook embeds 145% China tariff risk; “next best sales strategy” across 30+ markets	Minimal disruption in Mexico/Canada; flexibility across domestic/export/adjacent channels	Managed volatility; contingency plans active
Hog Production profitability and hedging	Raised FY outlook; mark-to-market derivative impact (-$15M) timing; external JV grain/hog sales at neutral margin	Seasonally stronger Q2/Q3; balanced supply/demand; tariff revenue volatility noted	-$8M in Q4 loss vs -$131M LY; improved raising costs and CME higher; plans to reduce internal production	Improving; guidance bias up
Automation/efficiency and cost discipline	>50% CapEx to automation/capacity; SG&A discipline; logistics optimization	Corporate headcount reductions; manufacturing/supply chain efficiencies	Cost savings across operations, procurement, SG&A supporting margins	Ongoing tailwind
Dividend/capital allocation	Quarterly $0.25; reiterating commitment; ample liquidity	Expect $1.00 annual; policy <2x net debt/EBITDA	Dividend declared $0.25; liquidity $3.245B	Stable policy; visibility improving

Management Commentary

Strategic identity: “Today, we are a new company, a packaged meats company with leading market share… over the past 10 years… more unified, cohesive and profitable” — Shane Smith .
Packaged Meats priorities: “expand… through ongoing product mix improvements, volume growth, and innovation. Two key areas… dry sausage and packaged lunch meat” — Shane Smith .
Fresh Pork strategy: “maximize product value across domestic and export channels… adjacent markets such as pharmaceuticals, pet food, pet treats, and skins for snacking” — Shane Smith .
Hog Production resizing: “reduce… internally produced hogs to approximately 30% of the needs of our Fresh Pork segment… expect ~11.5 million in 2025” — Shane Smith .
Financial posture: “net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was 0.8x… liquidity was $3.2 billion” — Mark Hall .

Q&A Highlights

Sales growth composition: Low-to-mid single-digit company sales growth driven by price plus modest volume excluding Hog Production; market appreciation aiding the outlook — Mark Hall .
Hog Production profitability range: Internal cost structure improvements and futures imply industry profitability with SFD guidance of -$50M to +$50M midpoint breakeven; seen leaning to high end later in the year — Shane Smith .
Tariff impacts and customer behavior: Export disruptions minimal and manageable; flexibility across channels and Mexican operations help offset tariff risks — Donovan Owens & Shane Smith .
Consumer behavior and private label: Cautious consumer; brand portfolio across price tiers plus private label capability captures wallet share — Steve France .
Dividend policy: Explicit 50% of net income payout policy, aiming for stable and growing dividends — Mark Hall .

Estimates Context

Q4 2024 versus S&P Global consensus: Revenue beat ($3.951B actual vs $3.915B estimate); EPS slight miss ($0.56 GAAP vs $0.533 estimate; adjusted EPS $0.52). Management attributed resilience to cost savings/mix shifts offsetting higher raw materials in Packaged Meats and improved Fresh Pork margins; Hog Production still negative but markedly improved . Values with an asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global.
Implications: Consensus may need to reflect ongoing raw material inflation pass-through mechanisms (formula pricing) and persistent cost efficiencies, as well as improving Hog Production fundamentals and tariff scenario planning .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Packaged Meats margins remain robust despite inflation; mix optimization toward lunch meat and dry sausage plus formula-based private label pricing supports earnings quality .
Fresh Pork execution offsets tighter spreads via value-added retail channels and agile export re-routing; tariff risk is embedded in guidance and actively managed .
Hog Production inflection underway; significant YoY improvement with guidance bias to high end as futures and internal cost actions support profitability — but watch hedging/mark-to-market timing .
Strong liquidity and low leverage (0.8x net debt/adj. EBITDA) provide flexibility for CapEx (automation, capacity) and shareholder returns (50% payout policy) .
FY2025 outlook initiated and subsequently raised/tightened across the year, with Hog Production the key swing factor; monitor quarterly updates for tariff dynamics and raw material trends .
Near-term trading lens: Mixed print (revenue beat, EPS slight miss) but constructive narrative on margins and balance sheet; dividend policy clarity adds support; tariff headlines remain a source of volatility .
Medium-term thesis: Vertical integration plus brand/private label breadth, efficiency discipline, and reduced commodity exposure via Hog Production resizing should smooth earnings and underpin margin durability .

Note: We found the Q4 2024 8-K earnings press release and full earnings call transcripts; no separate press releases were published for Q4 2024 in the press-release category in the date ranges searched . For trend analysis, we reviewed Q1 and Q2 2025 8-Ks and transcripts, and Q3 2025 8-K to track guidance revisions and segment trajectories – – – –.

SMITHFIELD FOODS INC (SFD)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary