Sprouts Farmers Market - Q2 2024
July 29, 2024
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Sprouts Farmers Market second quarter 2024 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there'll be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Suzanne Livingston. Please go ahead.
Susannah Livingston (Head of Investor Relations)
Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. We are pleased you are joining Sprouts on our second quarter 2024 earnings call. Jack Sinclair, Chief Executive Officer, and Curtis Valentine, Chief Financial Officer, are with me today. The earnings release announcing our second quarter 2024 results, the webcast of this call, and financial slides can be accessed through the investor relations section of our website at investors.sprouts.com. During this call, management may make certain forward-looking statements, including statements regarding our expectations for 2024 and beyond. These statements involve several risks and uncertainties that could cause results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements. For more information, please refer to the risk factors discussed in our SEC filings and the commentary on forward-looking statements at the end of our earnings release. Our remarks today include references to Non-GAAP measures.
Please see the tables in our earnings release to reconcile our non-GAAP measures to comparable GAAP figures. With that, let me hand it over to Jack.
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Thanks, Suzanne, and good afternoon, everyone. We've seen impressive growth in the second quarter. Our sales grew by 12% compared to the second quarter of 2023, including a 6.7% increase in comparable store sales, and our diluted earnings per share grew by more than 32% from last year's adjusted diluted earnings per share. These results are a direct outcome of consistently executing and evolving our long-term strategy over the past few years. Our health enthusiast target customers continue to respond positively to our differentiated product assortment and unique shopping experience. As consumer preferences shift towards healthier living, we anticipate there will be even more health enthusiasts in the future than there are today, bolstering our confidence in the long-term potential of Sprouts. As always, the key factor in all of this is our incredible team.
Their teamwork and commitment to excellence are the driving forces propelling us forward. It is an exciting time as we continue to expand, with significant opportunities still to come. I'll follow up with more later, but for now, I'll hand it over to Curtis to review our financial performance in the second quarter and our 2024 outlook. Curtis?
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
Thanks, Jack, and good afternoon, everyone. For the second quarter, total sales were $1.9 billion, up $201 million or 12% from the same period last year. This increase was driven by comparable store sales growth of 6.7% and the addition of new stores. For the quarter, we had a healthy balance across all of our key comp drivers, traffic and ticket, e-commerce and brick-and-mortar, new and older stores, as well as strong results in all geographies. E-commerce sales also increased by 30%, representing 14% of our total sales for the quarter, highlighting our commitment to meeting the evolving needs of our omni-channel customers, however they choose to engage with Sprouts. In addition, Sprouts Brand contributed 22% to our total sales for the quarter. The company's sales performance was strong across all categories as well.
We focused on improving stock levels, introducing innovative products with healthy attributes, getting the right assortment locally, and adjusting planograms, leading to improved performance in our physical stores, along with continued steady e-commerce growth. In particular, during the second quarter, we benefited from early and strong seasonal produce and saw the business strengthen more than anticipated, with this kickoff of summer. In the second quarter, our gross margin was 37.9%, approximately 80 basis points higher than adjusted gross margin for the same period last year. This improvement was mainly due to our better performance in managing our inventory, as well as benefit from promotional optimization and sales leverage in our supply chain. We're pleased to see that the investments we've made in our inventory systems, data, and processes over the last several years have given the teams the tools they need to drive these results.
SG&A for the quarter totaled $556 million, an increase of $63 million or approximately 20 basis points of deleverage compared to adjusted SG&A from the same period last year. This deleverage is primarily due to spending against our planned $15 million of strategic investments in 2024 and the pressure we continue to feel from new store openings as we grow. In addition, our strong sales have resulted in increased e-commerce fees and higher incentive compensation for our teams, partially offset by leverage from these higher sales. Store closure and other costs total approximately $3 million for the quarter. These are primarily related to ongoing occupancy costs from our 2023 store closures.
Depreciation and amortization, excluding depreciation included in the cost of sales, was $31 million. For the second quarter, our earnings before interest and taxes were $127 million. Interest was positive, $139,000, due to the paydown of our revolver and our invested cash, and our effective tax rate was 25%. Net income was $95 million, and diluted earnings per share were $0.94, an increase of 32% compared to adjusted diluted earnings per share from the same period the prior year. Our strong and healthy balance sheet has been the foundation of our financial performance. Year to date, we generated $311 million in operating cash flow, which enabled us to self-fund our investments of $89 million in capital expenditures, net of landlord reimbursement to grow our business.
With our robust cash generation, we also paid down all $125 million of our outstanding revolver and returned $104 million to our shareholders through purchasing nearly 1.6 million shares. We have $585 million remaining under our new $600 million share repurchase authorization. At quarter end, we had $177 million in cash and cash equivalents, no outstanding borrowings under our credit facility, and $20 million of letters of credit. Turning to our outlook, for the full year, we expect total sales growth to be between 9%-10% and comp sales in the range of 4%-5%. We plan to open approximately 35 new stores, with the majority of our remaining openings in the fourth quarter.
Adjusted earnings before interest and taxes are expected to be between $445 million and $455 million, and adjusted earnings per share are expected to be between $3.29 and $3.37, assuming no additional share repurchases. That said, we do expect to continue to repurchase shares opportunistically. We also expect our corporate tax rate to be approximately 25%. During the year, we expect capital expenditures, net of landlord reimbursements, to be between $225 million and $245 million. To add more color, we expect gross margins to be up in the second half, in line with our first half margin expansion, as we expect to maintain our recent improvements. For the year, we expect continued pressure on SG&A due to ongoing wage and benefits pressure, new store deleverage, and our strategic investments.
In the longer term, we remain focused on cost management and looking for opportunities to mitigate these cost headwinds. For the third quarter, we expect comp sales to range from approximately 3.5%-4.5% and adjusted earnings per share between $0.71 and $0.75. With that, I'll turn it back to Jack.
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Thanks, Curtis. We are optimistic about the momentum of our business and the path towards expansion. Our team is more aligned than ever and is committed to winning with our target customers through our differentiated assortment and unique store experience. Moreover, we look forward to the future and the opportunities that loyalty, enhanced personalization, and expansion will bring. While the second quarter yielded exceptional results, we recognize there is significant work ahead. We are unwavering in our focus on collaboration and execution to unlock Sprouts' full potential. We're making great progress in becoming our customers' go-to destination for health and wellness products. Our unique product assortment is curated specifically for our target customers and sets us apart due to the attributes, freshness, and quality we deliver. We continue to see customers seeking the type of products and experience we offer.
In our second quarter, we saw increased frequency from our existing customers, as well as growth in new customers. Our foraging team continues to drive our unique assortment through both Sprouts Brand and emerging brands on our in-store innovation center. Sales continue to grow in this space, and we have a strong process to bring the best products quickly to our shelves. One such successful product was Cymbiotika, a new line of supplements highlighted on the innovation center, allowing us to educate customers about the product's benefits. In addition, Sprouts Brand continues to expand, with more than 200 new items released through the second quarter, resulting in growing comp sales above the company average. In addition, we've been investing in our category management capabilities to support our merchants, and we're seeing strong performance from that investment across our business.
The teams are using this improved capability to make stronger assortment decisions, merchandise more effectively in store, and improve the online customer journey. As a result, we're seeing better performance in category resets. On the store experience fronts, we have strengthened store operations and fortified our supply chain foundation. The IT, supply chain, and operations teams have collaborated to improve our inventory management with new programs, processes, and tools. These improvements have empowered our store team members to manage fresh inventory better, improving freshness for our customers and significantly improving shrink. Our merchandising, marketing, and operations teams are collaborating to deliver unique events that create a distinctive store experience. During the second quarter, we held a unique cherry festival.
The event not only promoted the cherry season in produce, but also featured nearly 40 Sprouts Brand products, such as Dark Chocolate Cherry Popcorn, Cherry Blossom Lemonade, and cherry-infused deli meals and marinades throughout the store. Our marketing team leveraged our social media and digital platforms to create buzz, and our operations team brought the event to life in store with creative displays and sampling to create a one-of-a-kind Sprouts experience. On the marketing front, we're excited about the increased traffic and brand awareness driven by optimizing our media mix and targeting our customers through creative partnerships with influencers and celebrities. We will continue to take a regional-driven approach to our media strategy and refine our personalization efforts to create a more engaging customer experience. On loyalty, we recently started the beta test of the Sprouts Rewards program in Tucson and Nashville, one older market and one newer market.
We are in the test and learn phase of this project as we gather feedback from our team and customers. We're very early in our journey to build a loyalty program that excites and engages our customers while increasing their share of wallet with Sprouts. Given our business momentum, we're eager to expand into more communities and provide access to even more health-focused target customers. We continue to improve our site selection process and are pleased with the results from our 2024 openings thus far. We've seen strong openings from sea to shining sea. We are customizing our grand opening approach to establish stronger local connections. This involves focusing partnerships with local news stations to drive awareness and excitement of Sprouts joining the neighborhood. Our plans include unique community engagement activities for each store opening.
For example, in Bakersfield, California, Sprouts participated in the Earth Day Festival and distributed confetti made of seeds and basil plants to all the attendees. In Aberdeen, New Jersey, we invited important community members to join us, including Aberdeen native Laurie Hernandez, a former Olympic gymnast. We're also excited to leverage our recently announced partnership with the Southeastern Conference to support female athletes while increasing our brand awareness in many emerging markets where we are building new stores. We will open approximately 35 new stores by the end of the year, with more than half of the remaining openings in the fourth quarter. Despite the challenging development environment, the real estate team is doing a terrific job.
Given the success of our new stores, we're dedicated to expanding our brand with over 110 approved new stores and more than 70 executed leases in the pipeline for the next few years. Our success wouldn't be possible without a winning culture and a talent engine capable of supporting growth through the recruitment, development, and rewards program that strengthen team member retention. We continue to invest in our culture and have better aligned our total rewards program to our business performance, incentivizing our teams to take ownership of their business and participate in our shared success. We're proud that every team member in every store can earn a bonus with strong sales performance, and we believe that collectively, these differentiated incentive programs are motivating our team members to deliver outstanding customer experiences and contribute to our business momentum.
In closing, our second quarter results have bolstered our confidence in our strategy. Our focus on our target customers will unlock the full potential of our business and prepare us for the future. We're dedicated to maintaining a high level of execution, responding to opportunities with urgency, and investing in long-term, sustainable earnings growth. Our teams are motivated by our progress, the challenges that await us, and the even greater opportunities on the horizon. We're excited to share our progress and connect with many of you in the coming months. With that, I'd like to turn over for questions. Operator?
Operator (participant)
Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone. We also ask that you wait for your name and company to be announced before you proceed with your question. Today's first question comes from John Heinbockel of Guggenheim. Your line is open.
John Heinbockel (Analyst)
Hey, Jack, maybe can you talk a little bit through the foraging process, right? Because I know, key to what you're doing is not having product overlap, right, with with Walmart or conventionals. So maybe walk, you know, walk through that, finding, finding that product, getting exclusives for some period of time or, you know, and then thinking about how you wanna, if you wanna discontinue items that have, that have gone too mainstream.
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Yeah, the foraging team, we put that together a couple of years ago now, and that team have done a really amazing job in terms of finding products that are not sold anywhere else. I think I've said in the past to this, there's some really interesting entrepreneurial food entrepreneurs in the country who are bringing a lot of interesting-- but we're getting more products than actually we can put on the shelves at the moment because we've become a bit of a go-to place for people to bring products to the market. And things that are really focusing in on those type of products with appropriate ingredients, no additives, no-- none of the bad stuff in product, and a lot of positive ingredients. And that's something that they've been working very hard on.
The process itself is, they're spending a lot of time going around all the shows around the country, making ourselves available. We have open sessions where people can bring those products to us, and we pitch slams, we call it. And these pitch slams have been bringing us a lot of interesting products. And the exciting thing for us is, I think we can be a stepping stone for a lot of these people to, in time, two or three years down the line, go somewhere else with the product. We're very comfortable being the kind of the beta test for these kind of products, get things started, and have as that differentiation. The innovation center that we've put into the store allows us to put products that aren't being sold anywhere else straight into our system quickly.
If they sell, probably about 25% of them move over quite quickly into the main, into the main fixtures. In due course, those products will disappear from our business in a few years down the line as new products come in behind it. We're very much encouraging this entrepreneurial industry to see Sprouts as the destination for this product. We watch a lot of what's happening online as well, some of the online businesses that tend to start some of these interesting products. So it's a combination, the teams come together. It's a combination of searching around, specifically to shows, the pitch slam operation, checking out what's happening online with some of the direct-to-consumer products that have launched in this space. That's coming together pretty well for us, John. Thanks.
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
And then secondly, maybe as a follow-up, the, what, what's your thought on when you'll know enough on the loyalty program to expand? And I know by right now, right, it's a points-based system, right, I think, 2% back, basically. Any early thoughts on the... from customers, the structure is right? Do they wanna see something else or different? Do you think you need to change it before you go into new markets? What's your take on that?
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Well, it's very, very early days. We've clearly got a lot of thoughts on this one, John. We've been spending a lot of time trying to get this right. There's been a lot of work behind the scenes to make sure the technology behind it works effectively and the customer experience is seamless. We've been in three days in the two markets that we're in, and they've worked very well for the three days that we've been operating, so we're encouraged by the start. As much as anything else, the technology's worked, which is always, was always something that we spent a lot of time making sure it works. As this evolves, we'll get, the key is to get data from customers.
When you're a specialist kind of retailer like we are, and a targeted retailer with a limited customer base, well, you have to understand at a personal level much more information. Getting that data is the key to this, to the work going forward. Then we'll be able to create this feeling of specialty amongst our customers. We've got a very unique proposition, and we want people to feel very special about being part of this kind of loyalty club, almost is the, the way I would describe it. We'll see how it goes. We're getting the data. Very pleased with the start, very pleased with the work that's been done across the IT operations and marketing teams to make this thing come alive.
We'll be in a better position in the next two or three board meetings to kind of move on from that, to tell you a little bit about how we see this going forward.
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
Thank you.
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Thanks, John.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for the next question. And our next question will be coming from Leah Jordan of Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Leah Jordan (Analyst)
Thank you. Good afternoon, Jack and Curtis, great job to you and the entire team. I wanted to start off-
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Thanks, Leah.
Leah Jordan (Analyst)
On the new store growth. You know, it sounds like the majority of the stores still to open this year will come in the fourth quarter. I think previously, you were talking about the back half. Just curious, was that really just a clarification point at this point in the year, or are you seeing some slippage on timing? You know, and as you kind of build into 2025, I know it's a little early, but there are long lead times now. You know, how are you thinking about new store growth then? Should we be caught up by the fourth quarter and we're on a pretty steady cadence into next year, or what's your visibility right now?
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
Yeah. So Leah, I think this year, a little bit of clarification just to make sure that we get it right by quarter for you. And a little bit, that it's been a bit of a challenging environment. I think the interest rates staying higher for longer is creating some timing challenges. I don't think there's. I think there's developers are not in a rush to develop when the interest rate is as high as it is. And then, you know, the economics are more challenging when it stays that high, and so makes it a little bit challenging. We have seen some slippage, so there is some caution in there to make sure that we get the quarters right, and then we are seeing some slippage.
Overall, I think those, you know, things just move and move into or move out further. We're not ready to guide for next year, but I think those challenges will persist until the interest rates come down and probably come down somewhat dramatically. We'll have more updates, obviously, on the next call as we're thinking about next year, but the pipeline's healthy. We have 110, you know, sites approved from a real estate committee standpoint and over 70 signed leases. So, you know, we've got a lot of strong organic growth ahead of us, and we're just trying to navigate the situation.
I think the other thing I would just add is we're not gonna compromise on the quality of the sites we pick, of the development and the building itself. So we're gonna be choosy, we're gonna do it the right way, and if that means we don't quite get to 10% similar to this year, so be it. But we'll have some more updates for you next time.
Leah Jordan (Analyst)
That's very helpful. Thank you. Okay, so then just switching over to gross margin. Again, another quarter, really solid expansion here. You guys have been doing that for a long time now. I know there are a lot of company-specific factors that are driving that, which is great to see that you highlighted in the prepared remarks. But I think just at a higher level, would love to hear you guys kind of discuss, you know, how you think about the puts and takes between letting all those tailwinds, you know, flow through to the bottom line versus reinvesting for the long term. You know, how do you think about those trade-offs?
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
... Well, from a, from a pricing point of view, Leah, we spend a lot of time making sure we're at the right price. As you kind of identified in your question, there's quite a number of things that are part of us being a young and mature business that we're working our way through. I think shrink's a good example of the progress that we've made on that, and there's further progress to be made. There's a number of things that we can do to continue to make progress on gross margin, and we're working, we're working our way through that. How do we think? We're going to invest appropriately in our business going forward.
The one thing that we don't think is appropriate to invest is at the gross margin level on pricing because we've got this different, I think we've established ourselves now as this differentiated assortment, which gives us, I think, a, a position that we can control our own margins going forward, and that's something that's a good place to be. We haven't, as you can see from our top line, it doesn't seem to be something that's constraining our top line in terms of what we're working at, at the moment, and, I kind of see that being the trend going forward.
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
And I'd just, I'd just add to that, Leah, yeah, as, as long as traffic is healthy and we're seeing the units stabilize, which they are, and they've flattened out, we're gonna, we're gonna let the elasticities dictate how we price our, you know, our differentiated assortment. So, you know, we feel like we're in a pretty good place right now, and we'll watch that closely and manage it as we need to.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Makes a ton of sense. Appreciate it.
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for the next question. Our next question will be coming from Mark Carden of UBS. Your line is open.
Mark Carden (Analyst)
Good afternoon. Thanks so much for taking our questions. So to start, even with some of the macro uncertainty out there, your comp's obviously holding up really well. I know you guys shed some of your coupon clippers, but are you seeing any pressure from the lower end of your current customer base, or does your focus on serving key attributes really just keep you more inflated than others, and you see customers just prioritizing more spend on your assortment?
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Yeah, I think we, I think we lost the coupon clippers long ago, if I'm honest, Mark. So that, that dynamic, which is clearly a real dynamic in the marketplace at the moment, doesn't seem to be affecting us. What's-- so our, our... And the, the thing we've always said is that the nature of our assortment, whether when it's attribute based, whether it be keto or paleo or vegan or vegetarian or dairy or non, non-dairy, plant-based veg, that all those trends, if you get into that space in your food purchase, you can't tend to stick with it, almost irrespective of what the broader economic circumstances around you are. And I think that's what's given us a little bit of a moat here in terms of our customer base and their dietary needs and their dietary requirements, however they're coming at it.
One of the things we're working hard at is to understand that even better as we do work on this personalization work. But more and more, we're, we're seeing that our customers are resilient to the external environment that's going on around them. And, so yeah, we're feeling good about that.
Mark Carden (Analyst)
Okay, great. And then it sounds like you're making further progress with your marketing message in your newer markets. How does your comp compare in new geographies versus legacy geographies in 2Q when you think about similar vintages? Did the gap narrow at all? What are you seeing on that front?
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
I think our comps generally comes down to really age of store. We're seeing really strong comps from our newer vintages, and we tend to be a little heavier weight into the non-established there, with our pipeline being kind of 50/50 and just not a huge base of stores in those markets. So a little bit stronger comps in those geographies, but generally from Q2 or Q1 to Q2, it was, it was strength across the board. All regions improved, and we have a really healthy balance across the entire country.
Mark Carden (Analyst)
Great. Thanks so much. Good luck, guys.
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Thanks, Mark.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for the next question. Our next question will be coming from Rupesh Parikh of Oppenheimer & Co. Your line is open.
Rupesh Parikh (Analyst)
Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my question. Also, congrats on a really strong quarter. So I just wanted to go back to the-
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Thanks.
Rupesh Parikh (Analyst)
- to the comp outperformance. So now you're basically comping almost double your longer term algorithm for low single digit comps. You know, I guess what do you attribute to the overperformance versus your longer term algorithm? And then how do you guys feel about the sustainability? Because I know, you know, in Q3, you do expect a decel versus what you just reported on the comp line.
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
Yeah. So on the acceleration front, it was just... I mean, we had a really strong quarter across the board. You know, everything really worked in Q2. We got an early produce season, and then the strength of the season was good throughout. We really saw a step change in the business as we got into the summer kind of months, and that was really where it took off. What do we attribute it to? I mean, I think it's the same things we've talked about for, you know, several quarters running. I think we have the right strategy that really works for our target customer. I think the teams are doing a great job executing and collaborating to bring it to life.
Then we put a lot into the team and the culture and, you know, winning begets winning, and it's really, you know, a good energy and a good vibe in the stores and the store experience. So, you know, a little bit of everything's working. We have some tailwinds, like I said, with the seasonal piece. And then as far as the guide goes, you know, I just—we don't expect everything to be perfect forever. Something will go bump in the night. In Q2, the things that were working stayed working, and the things that, you know, were struggling a little bit, got better. But, you know, it's a pretty rare moment to have everything working all at once, and that's kind of where we were in Q2.
So we're gonna plan our business appropriately, towards the high end of that low single digit algorithm. We're gonna manage our costs as a result, not get too over-egged, and, you know, if things continue, great, then, then we'll have some upside, and we'll let that drop to the bottom line.
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
... And I think the other thing we've mentioned about the macro environment here is I think, I think this sector of the market is just growing a little bit faster than maybe we all thought it would. I think this attribute-based sensitivity to ingredients, health enthusiast, customer conscious consumer, I think there's just maybe just been a little bit of growth on that, and we've probably benefited from that as well.
Ken Goldman (Analyst)
Okay, great. Thank you, I'll pass along.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Who wants the next question? Our next question will be coming from Michael Montani of Evercore. Your line is open. Michael, your line is open.
Michael McInerney (Analyst)
Hey, this is Mike. Thanks for taking the question. I just wanted to confirm on the margin side, it sounds like you all were looking for a similar level of gross margin expansion in the back half of the year. So just wanted to make sure I understood kind of the drivers of that piece of it. And then also, if I'm seeing this right, it's about a flattish EBIT margin, so, then anticipating SG&A dollars kinda grow at a similar pace as well. So just hoping you could help out with that.
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
Yep, Mike, that's spot on. You know, we've been in the mid-80s of margin expansion on the gross and expecting that, you know, in that range for the second half, pretty consistently by quarter, and then the offset with, with SG&A and the pressures we're experiencing there.
Michael McInerney (Analyst)
Got it. And then maybe on the comp side, if I could, you know, if you were to parse out new store contribution, as well as Uber Eats, you know, I was thinking about new stores, maybe 150-200 bps, and then another, call it 100-150 from Uber Eats. But just wanted to see if there was any incremental color that you could share, you know, on that front.
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
Yeah, I don't think we'll give specifics. I would say it's really been strong across the board. Again, it was really healthy. Brick-and-mortar really was the piece that accelerated in the quarter, and we had some traffic acceleration, largely in brick-and-mortar. The e-com business has been pretty consistent from quarter to quarter for us. So really healthy, strong across the board, really pleased with how the comp's coming in. Again, new stores are performing, core stores are performing. It's been a nice balance for us.
Michael McInerney (Analyst)
Okay, great. Thanks for taking the questions, and good luck.
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One more question. Our next question will be coming from Ken Goldman of J.P. Morgan. You're still on.
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
Hi, I think that's for me. Is it for Ken? We'll see in a second.
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Yes, yeah, it's Ken.
Ken Goldman (Analyst)
Hey, guys,
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Hi, Ken.
Ken Goldman (Analyst)
I just had one question, and I don't know if you can answer it, but obviously, things sound terrific across the board. A couple of questions I am getting are really on the new stores into next year, and if there's any chance that you guys can give us any kind of color as to, you know, what you meant by what you've said last quarter and this quarter about interest rates and maybe some challenges in terms of the timing there. I know you're not quite prepared to talk about next year yet, but I think some people are kind of looking for any kind of sense of rough magnitude as to what those comments should have, you know, should have us think about in terms of incremental store count. Thank you.
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Well, we'll be much clearer in the future, but we've got 110 leased stores signed off and over 70 leases signed. The comments that we've been making around interest rates are the timing in which we can get these stores opened. So we've got a huge pipeline ready to go, and we're in good shape from that point of view, and that pipeline continues to expand, as we've talked about, every quarter going forward. So we're gonna build a lot of new stores next year. The absolute number, we're gonna be clearer about at the next meeting, but there are some pressures in terms of, because of interest rates, the speed at which development, a lot of our programs are built to suit at the moment, which is creating some delays in terms of us not opening.
The reason we've got more opening in Q4 than I would have liked is because some of these things have just been delayed on the back of some of those challenges that we faced. The team are doing a terrific job getting these things opened. I'm really proud of the work that we're making, and, as I say, we'll be clearer about that going forward. Carter, do you want to add something to that?
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
Yeah, Ken, it's not—we're not, we're not going backwards from where we are. It's gonna be in the same neighborhood, and it'll just be a question of the tail end of next year as the timing becomes more clear, just, you know, how many we can do specifically.
Ken Goldman (Analyst)
No, that, that's helpful. Thank you. And, and then I heard you mention a little bit about traffic accelerating. Can you just give us a little bit of detail on, you know, what you saw from AUR and basket size trends during the quarter? And then very quickly, if you have any comments on 3Q comps to date, if they're more or less in line with your guidance.
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
Yeah. So on the kinda traffic ticket side of it, yes, traffic accelerated, so 6, 7 comp, was, you know, call it... It was a little bit, almost 50/50, but not quite, a little bit more basket than traffic. It's an AUR and traffic story. The units have kind of gotten themselves back to flat, still just barely negative in the second quarter. So we feel like we're stable with that low single-digit inflation, stable unit story, and that's kind of how we expect it to play out going forward, traffic and AUR, and then flat units, as far as the guide goes. And the second piece was?
Kelly Bania (Analyst)
... Just a brief view comp to date, if it's kind of more or less in line with where you've guided.
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
Yeah. You know, we're in good shape here to start the quarter. As we said, we saw—we're seeing a strong summer, and that's continued into July, and we're just curious to see as we get back to school, it's kind of a shift in our business and the types of products and events we're running, and it's really where we saw the comp take off last year. So we're curious to see how we lap that over the next, you know, call it four to six weeks as the different geographies go back to school.
Kelly Bania (Analyst)
Thanks very much.
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
Thanks, Ken.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment while we prepare for the next question. The next question will be coming from Robbie Ohmes of Bank of America. Your line is open.
Robbie Ohmes (Analyst)
Oh, thanks for taking my question. My first question is just, can you, can you, you know, either Jack or Curtis, remind us the, the profitability of e-commerce? I mean, it, it did accelerate sequentially again, and it's up nicely in penetration year over year. Is that, is that also supporting gross margin?
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
Yeah, I think it's the profitability bottom line. It's just slightly dilutive because of the fee structure, but on a basket basis, they're typically larger baskets, and so stronger net dollar profitability and a little bit dilutive from a rate perspective. Margin rate-wise, generally, the mix is pretty close from brick and mortar to online. There isn't a material difference in margin rate, so it's not a huge story or driver within the gross margin story.
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
I think that's quite unusual. What Curtis said there in terms of the mix is quite unusual. Our mix of fresh produce in our e-com business is probably much stronger than you would find in most food retailers that are using that. So that encourages our assortment and our product offer is being very thoughtfully used by our customer base, and there's a confidence in what we sell, which gives us a lot of confidence in our assortment going forward.
Robbie Ohmes (Analyst)
Gotcha. That's really helpful. And Jack, I think you mentioned the, you know, the regional merchandising opportunity. Can you remind us where you are at now on regionalization of assortment and where you think that could go?
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Well, it's very-- it's particular in our produce business, which is so important to us. It's very, very seasonal. I was in Colorado over the weekend, and, you know, the peaches are just arriving, but there's only a few weeks, and it'll be snowing soon. So there's only so much you can do in certain times of the year. So across the country, we've invested in each distribution center in having close relationships with local farmers so that when things are ready, we are in a good shape to take advantage of that. We're working pretty hard at that going forward. Is there further to go? I think no doubt there's further to go.
If we can get more commitments to our kind of, our supply base, giving 2, 3, 4, 5-year commitments, that's the kind of thing we want to work at so that we're in a better place to do that going forward. And some of our individual categories, I think, gives us some opportunities beyond produce to do a little bit more than we've done so far. Some of the innovation centers, for example, we talked to a lot of producers who just haven't got enough volume to supply all of our stores even. And what we do with those guys is try and work them into a regional assortment, so we can launch them in a few stores rather than all our stores.
That's something that I think sets us apart and allows us to be differentiated in all sorts of local ways going forward.
Robbie Ohmes (Analyst)
That's great. Thanks, Jack.
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for the next question. Our next question will be coming from Kelly Bania of BMO Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Kelly Bania (Analyst)
Hi, I think that was me. This is Kelly Bania from BMO.
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Hi, Kelly. Yes, it's you, Kelly. Thanks.
Kelly Bania (Analyst)
Thanks. So, I have a couple of questions. One, just wanted to ask about promotional effectiveness, and, sounds like that's still a growth margin driver. Can you just help us understand which categories at this stage you are still finding opportunities there to refine your promotional effectiveness and how much that's contributing to, to the growth margin, as well as the growth margin outlook that's kind of been bumped here, for the back half?
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
It's really across the board. There's not really any huge category story. I think, you know, Jack talks a lot about the inefficiency, the immaturity in our business, and I think this is us just better leveraging tools and data and process to make better decisions. And so the category management we referenced in the script, you know, these are pieces that are coming together, and we're just getting a little bit more effective and efficient as a group. And so I think all the merchants are doing a really nice job managing that and getting the target customer appropriate promotions without overinvesting in things that aren't gonna drive traffic or units.
It was a small driver to the first half, and and really, you know, we kind of lapped some of the benefits we saw and started seeing in the middle of last year, so we're not expecting it to be a huge driver in the second half. It's much more an inventory management story, which certainly manifests in shrink, which we've talked about, but also helps us in things like markdown management as we do exit product and bring new product in. And so we've seen some nice wins in both of those. And again, that's a place where we've made SG&A investments in the last few years that are providing the teams the tools to be able to better manage margins. So pleased with how that's coming together.
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
So, specifically to that, each of the merchants are working through basically on elasticity. And we've talked about this in a number of the calls in the last couple of years. This, the data that we're getting and trying to understand exactly how elastic certain products are on a promotional basis and using more information, more systems, is back to what Curtis just talked. As we get a little bit more mature in our business and a bit more mature how we think about it, we're being, I think, smarter about how we invest any money in product promotions.
Kelly Bania (Analyst)
That's helpful. And then maybe just to follow up on SG&A. Still deleveraged a little bit despite comps coming in quite strong. So I was just curious if there's anything impacting SG&A, any pull forward or timing considerations, or is it maybe just impacted by the growth of e-com, which was still quite strong? Just trying to think about how that SG&A came in relative to your plan.
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
Yeah. I think certainly e-com, you know, staying at that 14% level, you know, we're, we're pleased with that. That wasn't exactly what we were counting on as we laid out the year, so there's a little bit extra pressure there. Really, the big driver, we reset our incentive comp plans for the year based on the performance, and so, you know, paying a lot more bonus to the stores, to the teams, and accruing for that for, for our long-term incentive as well. So it's been, really just catching that up here in the second quarter was one of the one-timers, and then, of course, our, our, our investments, right? So we've got another $4 million of the $15 that we spent here in Q2, and, you know, so that was a, a little bit of a drainer as well.
OkSo I think you take away the incentive and the investment pieces, and we would have been leveraged.
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Those are investments we're feeling really positive about. The fact that we're giving every store, every team member in every store gets the opportunity to earn a bonus, and I don't know anyone else that's doing that. That's something we see as a real positive in terms of driving the positivity in our business at the moment. These investments we're putting in, because we're putting some good numbers on the board, it's giving us some space to do the kind of things that we need to do to make appropriate IT investments, appropriate investments behind our personalization work, appropriate investments behind supply chain. It's allowing us to put ourselves in a much better place going forward.
Kelly Bania (Analyst)
Thank you.
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
Thanks.
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Thanks, Kelly.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for the next question. Our next question is coming from Krisztina Katai of Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Krisztina Katai (Analyst)
Hi, good afternoon, and congrats on a very strong quarter. I wanted to ask about-
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Thank you, Christina.
Krisztina Katai (Analyst)
Hi, Jack. I wanted to ask about your produce business, in particular, the usual 10%-15% discount you have relative to traditional grocers. So can you just update us on where the gaps are today? And then two is that we hear a lot of food retailers talk about leaning into the fresh department in particular. So do you see them doing anything differently price-wise or merchandising-wise to drive traffic or frequency?
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Well, we've talked about this in the past, Christina. We pay a lot of attention to produce pricing. We've been very encouraged by particularly our organic produce pricing, even the guys that are chasing after produce, they're not chasing after organic produce, they're chasing after some of the conventional products. So what we've found is we've widened our gap in organic produce, which is what our customers... We're well over 45. I can't remember, do we quote the number?
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
Yeah, probably.
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Quoted some I'm not supposed to quote. 45% of our produce business is organic produce. I've said it now. So, that's something, and it continues to grow, and we're encouraged by it. And so from a proposition point of view, this organic gap's important to us, and I think as we look at that, we're in very good shape against everybody in that space. We're not seeing a very aggressive environment. There's some occasional aggressive promotions which people put on the front page of ads, but it's not something... We're well away from that type of customer that's responding to that kind of coupon clipping that we had many years ago. So our produce pricing is in good shape. Our mix of produce is evolving towards, I think, something that emphasizes our differentiation in being organic produce.
We're working very close with growers, growers, so we can get more and more of that available going forward. But, yeah, produce is in good shape.
Krisztina Katai (Analyst)
Got it. And then just as a follow-up, I think you said that you grew frequency with existing customers, and then you also saw new customer additions. So maybe can you talk about what you're seeing purchase behavior-wise with your two core customer segments that you're targeting and where you are with them on wallet share today versus even maybe a year ago, relative to where you'd like to be? Thank you.
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
Yeah, sure, Christina, this is Curtis. You know, I think that's a piece that we're excited to get after as we get into loyalty and we gather more and more data, so we can have a more crisp answer there. But certainly, you know, really pleased with the frequency piece. That's a big opportunity for us and how often folks come in and saw that go in the right direction for us. As far as the two segments, you know, we believe we're gaining share of wallet, and everything we look at tells us we are. So really pleased, you know, with the direction we're headed on customer engagement and looking forward to getting even more and more data to better engage with them and tell that story.
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
It's not. We still don't have. We've still got lots of opportunity to grow share of wallet with those target customers. As we've talked in the past, we're talking a really small number, a few crumbs at the table, and we can grow this thing a lot faster than we have been growing over the last couple of years.
Krisztina Katai (Analyst)
Yeah, very exciting.
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
That's where the loyalty and personalizing. Yeah, thanks, Christina.
Krisztina Katai (Analyst)
Thanks. Best of luck.
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Thank you.
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for the next question. Our next question will be coming from Edward Kelly of Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
Kelly Bania (Analyst)
Yeah. Hi, guys. I think that's me.
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Hi.
Kelly Bania (Analyst)
It's Kelly.
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Hi.
Kelly Bania (Analyst)
Great quarter, by the way.
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Thank you.
Kelly Bania (Analyst)
So I wanted to ask about digital. You know, 30% growth in digital is pretty impressive, you know, top of 25 last quarter. Just how do you think about, you know, where digital penetration can go over time, you know, currently at 14%? You will, I guess, you know, lap Uber Eats, I guess, as you get into next year. Thoughts around, you know, how you think about the sustainability of the digital growth, as well?
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
... Sorry, I had you cut out there. Can you-
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
Oh, hi, guys.
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
About sustainability? Yeah, sorry, you cut out for a minute. Was our follow-up of the sustainability of what was it you asked about?
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
Yeah, the sustainability of digital growth and where you think penetration-
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Yeah, sure.
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
can go over time.
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Okay. Okay. Yeah, we're, we're very pleased with how our digital business is going, and it, it reflects the fact that we're very indifferent to how a customer shops with us. We believe that our assortment and our proposition fits well with our target customers, and they will be an omni-channel who will choose how best to access our products. We want them in our stores, we want them to come and pick up from our stores, and we want them to get delivery via some of our, our different mechanisms of getting it to people's homes. That increase, that 14% is something that I'm not sure how much. It'll probably tweak up a little bit. I don't think it's going to go over the long term dramatically more than that.
I don't, I don't see that, and it's certainly not. It will be what it will be, though, and we'll take what happens with how our customer shapes us in that direction. We want to understand our customer better and make sure we're reflecting the assortment that is appropriate to that target customer. So the sustainability of our, of our. I think it's not. I think it might tweak up a little bit, and that's not what I would have said a couple of years ago coming out of the pandemic. I think things have changed a little bit, and customers are feeling more comfortable about using digital in our environment than maybe they were pre-pandemic. Remember, we were only at 2% of our sales pre-pandemic, so there's been quite an evolution.
I think as we start to understand our customers, that will tweak up a little bit more, but I don't think it's going to be huge.
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
Can I just add a little color? It's really all three partners driving it, so it's not all an Uber Eats story. We're really pleased with DoorDash's year two growth. They continue to ramp up, and Instacart, you know, our longest term partner, has had a great year and is driving growth as well. So it's really balanced across the three partners, as far as that penetration jump we saw up to 14%.
Edward Kelly (Analyst)
Great. And just a quick follow-up on SG&A. And obviously, you've had investment in SG&A this, you know, this year. Are you at the point where you cycle out of 2024, and we can start to think about, you know, more normalized SG&A growth on a per store basis, like a more normalized comp to leverage SG&A? Just, I know you're not going to give guidance for 2025, but I'm just kind of curious where you are in, in the investment cycle.
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
Yeah, it, it definitely should be more normalized as we get to 2025. We won't get super specific this early yet on exactly what that looks like, but it's, it's not gonna be, you know, in the, in the 80 range that it's gonna look like here this year. There's certainly some one-timers with investment. There's the incentive comp piece that goes the other way or, or normalizes back to 100% next year. So, it'll, it'll normalize for next year. The, the underlying pressures will still be there with new stores, with wages, with e-commerce. But again, even the e-commerce piece that we just discussed will be a little bit muted. We've got our step change here this year of having those partners jump on, and that'll, that'll normalize a little bit as well.
Should be a more normal year next year.
Edward Kelly (Analyst)
Thank you.
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Thanks.
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
Thanks, Ted.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for the next question, please. The next question will be coming from Karen Short of Moelis Research. Your line is open.
Karen Short (Analyst)
Oh, hi, it's Karen Short from Moelis. Good to talk to you again. It's been a while.
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Hi, Karen.
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
Hi, Karen. Welcome back.
Karen Short (Analyst)
I had a couple of questions related to comps. So can you just give an update on, first thing is cannibalization, the second is waterfall on new stores, and then the third is... Actually, this is a little more tangential. When you think looking forward, if an assuming Kroger and Albertsons actually does change hands to C&S, how do you think about that opportunity?
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
Sure. So I'll take the first two, and I'll leave the third for Jack, because he likes to answer that one. So, cannibalization, you know, certainly as we expand, you know, the number of stores, we went from 30 last year to 35 this year, there'll be a little bit of incremental cannibalization. Our pipeline is approximately 50/50, kind of non-established to established. So we don't see a ton of cannibalization in the non-established markets. We feel that more in the established markets. That's playing out about as we expected, and it's a little bit of a drag that offsets. You know, the second part of your question was just about new store waterfall.
So, you know, that comps have been really strong in the last few vintages, a little bit better than our box economics. They've started a little bit lower from a volume perspective, and we think they're gonna get to the right place in the longer term. I think the only thing I'd note on that comp waterfall from new stores is that they just, as they come out a little bit lower volume, they just don't carry the same weight versus the core. So as a penetration to the total, they're a little bit lower, but we're seeing nice, you know, strong double-digit comps as they hit their first-year comp. And on the Kroger and Albertsons, I'll let Jack cover that one.
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Yeah, Karen, I think Kroger and Albertsons, whether it happens or it doesn't happen, I've really got no idea. I've got no more insight than anyone reading the newspapers like everyone else. So the way we look at it, both of these companies have got some good brands in all sorts of different markets where we operate and some where we don't operate. And we actually see ourselves as not competing with either of them. So it doesn't - we see ourselves as a complementary retailer, and I've always talked about this. We're not trying to win traffic from the big conventional supermarkets. We're trying to win a share of wallet of our target customers. And it's not meant to sound arrogant in any way, but it doesn't matter-...
If we keep focusing in on looking after our target customers and trying to understand them better and grow that share of wallet with that target customer, it almost doesn't matter what the other guys do. If anything, I just want to be as close to them as I can if they've got big traffic, because we feed off the traffic of some of these higher volume, kind of, conventional grocers. So I hope that makes sense, but we're focused in on the customer side of it, not so much on what might be happening corporately with two very big businesses.
Karen Short (Analyst)
No, that makes sense. And then just to follow up, on new store productivity, obviously, it was very high. But how—like, how do you think about that going forward, given the heavy weight on new store openings in 4Q?
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
Yeah, I think we never really count on more than what we've kind of talked about historically in the approximately 75% range. I think that gets a little better with the smaller square footage, and we expect the top line to be about the same in those new stores, but we don't count on anything more than that. We kind of take the openings as they come, quarter by quarter, and then we address it in the reforecast from there. So we're pleased with the new stores and the momentum, particularly in the newer markets. And, you know, we're happy with the openings we've seen, as Jack mentioned, from sea to shining sea.
We've seen some good ones on the West Coast, we've seen some good ones in Florida and some good ones on the East Coast, and it's given us a lot of encouragement for the expansion plan forward.
Karen Short (Analyst)
Okay. Thank you so much.
Curtis Valentine (CFO)
Thanks, Karen.
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. There are no more questions in the queue for today. I would now like to turn the call over to Jack Sinclair for closing remarks. Please go ahead.
Jack Sinclair (CEO)
Well, as always, we appreciate your interest in our business. Thanks very much for taking some time to listen to us today, and we look forward to talking to you again in the near future. Take care, everyone.
Operator (participant)
Thank you for joining today's conference call. You may all disconnect.