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SHIFT TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (SFTGQ)·Q3 2022 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Revenue fell to $161.9M, down 10% y/y and sharply lower vs Q2 ($223.7M) and Q1 ($219.6M), as Shift executed its restructuring and liquidated inventory through wholesale channels .
  • GAAP gross profit collapsed to $0.4M; total GPU fell to $84, but Adjusted GPU held up at $1,925, reflecting mix and non-GAAP adjustments during the transition .
  • Net loss widened to $75.8M (EPS -$0.92) vs Q2 (-$0.64) and Q1 (-$0.70); Adjusted EBITDA loss improved sequentially to -$30.0M (from -$36.9M) with margin -18.5% .
  • Guidance reduced: FY22 revenue to $665–$675M (from $690–$710M), Q4 revenue $60–$70M; company emphasized focus on unit economics and SG&A reduction as catalysts .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Adjusted GPU remained resilient at $1,925 despite macro headwinds and lower ASP vehicles, underpinning unit economics improvement .
  • SG&A dropped to $49.8M (30.8% of revenue) vs Q2 $58.7M (26.3%) and y/y $57.9M (32.2%), reflecting early restructuring benefits .
  • Management executed the revised business plan: “a period of transition as we executed upon our revised business plan, which focuses on growing unit economics and driving SG&A costs lower,” said CEO Jeff Clementz .

What Went Wrong

  • Gross profit and GPU deteriorated: GAAP GPU fell to $84 vs $1,729 in Q2 and $1,655 in Q1, driven by inventory liquidation and wholesale losses .
  • Wholesale gross loss rose to -$8.0M, with wholesale loss per unit -$1,655 due to liquidation of higher-priced vehicles through wholesale .
  • Liquidity/going concern: 10-Q disclosed substantial doubt about ability to continue as a going concern; Nasdaq deficiency letter received Oct 4, 2022, raising listing risk .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022
Revenue ($USD Millions)$219.6 $223.7 $161.9
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$10.8 $11.9 $0.4
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$(57.0) $(52.2) $(75.8)
EPS (Basic & Diluted, $)$(0.70) $(0.64) $(0.92)
Adjusted EBITDA Loss ($USD Millions)N/A$(36.9) $(30.0)
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)N/A(16.5)% (18.5)%
Total Gross Profit per Unit ($)$1,607 $1,729 $84
Adjusted Gross Profit per Unit ($)N/A$1,821 $1,925

Year-over-Year Q3 comparison:

MetricQ3 2021Q3 2022
Revenue ($USD Millions)$179.8 $161.9
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$13.0 $0.4
EPS (Basic & Diluted, $)$(0.48) $(0.92)
Total Gross Profit per Unit ($)$1,997 $84
Adjusted Gross Profit per Unit ($)$2,056 $1,925

Segment breakdown (Q3 2022):

SegmentRevenue ($USD Millions)Gross Profit ($USD Millions)
Retail$125.8 $8.4
Wholesale$36.1 $(8.0)
Consolidated$161.9 $0.4

KPIs

KPIQ1 2022Q2 2022Q3 2022
Ecommerce Units Sold6,714 6,872 4,855
Wholesale Units Sold1,975 1,161 1,854
Ecommerce ASP ($)$27,269 $28,373 $24,692
Wholesale ASP ($)$14,069 $16,823 $19,479
Total GPU ($)$1,607 $1,729 $84
Adjusted GPU ($)N/A$1,821 $1,925
Avg Monthly Unique Visitors822,856 833,320 765,145
Average Days to Sale56 63 76
Ecommerce Vehicles Available5,464 5,359 1,895

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Q2 2022)Current Guidance (Q3 2022)Change
Revenue ($USD Millions)Q4 2022$270–$290 (Second Half total) $60–$70 (Q4) Lower granularity; Q4 level indicates reduced run-rate
Adjusted GPU ($)Q4 2022$1,500–$1,700 (Second Half) $1,800–$1,900 Raised
Adjusted EBITDA Loss ($USD Millions)Q4 2022$(50)–$(55) (Second Half) $(20)–$(25) Improved (less negative)
Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2022$690–$710 $665–$675 Lowered
Ecommerce Units (Units)FY 202221,000–24,000 Not provided Withdrawn
Adjusted GPU ($)FY 2022$1,600–$1,700 $1,700–$1,800 Raised
Adjusted EBITDA Loss ($USD Millions)FY 2022$(133)–$(138) $(133)–$(138) Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3 2022)Trend
Restructuring & Online Checkout FocusAnnounced “new business plan” to transact most sales via profitable online checkout; hub closures; test-drive elimination Management reiterated transition and focus on unit economics and SG&A reduction ; call discussed execution of plan Execution progressing
Inventory Mix (Value Vehicles)Shift to favor Value vehicles (older/ higher mileage) to optimize economics Continued optimization of mix; Adjusted GPU maintained despite lower ASP Ongoing
Liquidity & Going ConcernNoted negative cash flows; ATM capacity; going concern language appears in Q1 Q3 10-Q reaffirms substantial doubt; received Nasdaq deficiency letter (subsequent event) Risk elevated
Wholesale Channel UseQ1/Q2 wholesale ASP up; modest GP/loss Heavy wholesale liquidation drove large gross losses (-$8.0M; -$1,655 per unit) Deteriorating
CarLotz MergerAnnounced Aug 9; expected to be fully funded to profitability post-combination Progress toward closing; related shareholder litigation disclosures noted Pending close

Management Commentary

  • “The third quarter represented a period of transition as we executed upon our revised business plan, which focuses on growing unit economics and driving SG&A costs lower.” — Jeff Clementz, CEO .
  • “Sold 4,855 ecommerce units and achieved $161.9 million in revenue; Achieved strong Adjusted gross profit per unit of $1,925, despite macroeconomic headwinds and lower ASP vehicles.” — Press release highlights .
  • Conference call covered restructuring execution and outlook (CEO/CFO prepared remarks and Q&A) .

Q&A Highlights

  • Guidance details and drivers: Management discussed Q4 revenue outlook ($60–$70M), Adjusted GPU ($1,800–$1,900), and Adjusted EBITDA loss ($20–$25M) tied to the transition to online-centric fulfillment .
  • Restructuring impact: Clarified timeline, hub closures, and cost actions; emphasized SG&A trajectory and unit economics improvements .
  • Liquidity/listing status: Addressed going concern considerations and Nasdaq bid-price deficiency letter implications .
  • CarLotz merger: Timing and expected synergies, including liquidity add and operational overlap .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus from S&P Global was unavailable for this ticker due to missing mapping; therefore, a formal comparison to S&P Global consensus for Q3 2022 revenue/EPS/EBITDA could not be provided. Values retrieved from S&P Global were unavailable for SFTGQ mapping.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Adjusted GPU resilience ($1,925) suggests the new mix and online checkout focus can sustain unit economics even as ASP declines; monitor whether Q4 guidance ($1,800–$1,900) is achieved .
  • Wholesale liquidation materially hurt gross profit; watch the pace of inventory normalization and reduced reliance on wholesale to restore GAAP GPU .
  • SG&A trajectory is improving; sustained reductions are critical for reaching EBITDA breakeven, with Q4 Adjusted EBITDA loss guided to $(20)–$(25)M .
  • Liquidity remains a key risk (going concern language) and listing risk (Nasdaq deficiency); track capital raises (ATM), merger closing, and any reverse split actions .
  • Guidance reset: FY22 revenue lowered to $665–$675M; Q4 revenue implies a smaller footprint near-term; upside depends on execution of Project Focus and marketplace initiatives .
  • CarLotz merger could bolster liquidity and footprint; assess synergy realization and integration risks amid ongoing shareholder actions .
  • Stock narrative likely driven by evidence of unit economics improvement (Adjusted GPU, SG&A), stabilization of gross profit, and resolution of listing/liquidity overhangs .

Additional references:

  • Earnings press release (Nov 8, 2022) .
  • Earnings call scheduling PR (Oct 18, 2022) .