Somnigroup International - Q3 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Tempur Sealy's third-quarter 2023 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there'll be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you'll need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Aubrey Moore, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Aubrey Moore (VP of Investor Relations, Insights & Analytics)

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for participating in today's call. Joining me today are Scott Thompson, Chairman, President, and CEO, and Bhaskar Rao, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. This call includes forward-looking statements that are subject to the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements involve uncertainties, and actual results may differ materially due to a variety of factors that could adversely affect the company's business. These factors are discussed in the company's SEC filings, including its annual reports on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it was made. The company undertakes no obligations to update any forward-looking statements. This morning's commentary will include non-GAAP financial information.

Reconciliations of the non-GAAP financial information can be found in the accompanying press release, which is posted on the company's investor website at investor.tempursealy.com and filed with the SEC. Our comments will supplement the detailed information provided in the press release. Now, with that introduction, it's my pleasure to turn the call over to Scott.

Scott Thompson (Chairman, President and CEO)

Thanks, Aubrey. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on our 2023 third-quarter earnings call. I'll start by sharing some highlights from our third-quarter performance, and then Bhaskar will review our financial performance in more detail. After that, I will provide an update on a proposed acquisition of Mattress Firm before opening up the call for Q&A. Today, we are reporting the third-best third-quarter sales and EPS in the company's history. For the third-quarter of 2023, we reported net sales of approximately $1.3 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.77. Our results are approximately consistent with the third-quarter of last year, despite a more challenging macroeconomic operating background. The U.S. bedding industry as a whole underperformed our expectations, with estimated volume down low double-digits in the quarter.

We mitigated the impact of the softer-than-anticipated U.S. market with solid company performance that exceeded our expectations on both a relative market performance and year-over-year gross margin expansion. Internationally, the bedding industry and our operations performed in line with our expectations. Overall, despite down markets and the disruption of a major cybersecurity incident in the third-quarter, our strong relative performance and cash flow generation demonstrate the strong strength of our brands, operations, and team. We believe Tempur Sealy is well positioned for continued success. Turning to highlights for the quarter. First, our industry-leading brands and products continue to resonate with the U.S. consumer, driving our strong performance relative to the broader market. All of our new Tempur products and supporting advertising initiatives are strengthening Tempur's appeal to the premium, well, wellness-minded consumer.

The incremental cooling and comfort innovation of our new lineup of Breeze mattresses generate robust retail advocacy and favorable mix in the quarter compared to the prior year. The lumbar feature, acoustic massage, the wake up and wind down technologies, and our new Smart Base lineup continue to strengthen the value proposition of our adjustable offerings, driving an improvement in attachment rates year-over-year. These innovations drove a 5% increase in Tempur mattress and foundation ASP in the third-quarter. Looking ahead to 2024, we expect to complete the full refresh of our U.S. Tempur portfolio by introducing our next generation of Adapt products. We expect strong returns on investment in our new products for years to come.

Over the quarter, we continued to support our new Tempur products and the long-term health of our Tempur brand with continued investments in national and digital Tempur-Pedic advertising. These marketing investments support very solid e-commerce performance and drove an increase in U.S. Tempur search interest year-over-year. Our strategic investment in product distribution and marketing also continued to drive strong performance and expand brand awareness of Stearns & Foster in the U.S. market. We completed the rollout of our all-new Stearns & Foster mattress collection earlier this year. We continue to see these new products connecting with the premium traditional innerspring consumer, driving sales growth year-over-year. The consumer-centric innovation, elevated design, and enhanced step-up opportunities are resonating with premium innerspring customers. We're thrilled that our high-end products are performing well, and the ASP of Stearns & Foster products is up double-digit from last year.

Additionally, Stearns & Foster's search interest and e-commerce traffic were up 50% this year. Clearly, our multi-year strategy for Stearns & Foster is working well for us and our retailers. Second highlight, our international operation is performing well and driving solid sales growth amid the current macro backdrop. We have successfully launched our new international Tempur lineup in over 90 markets worldwide, completing the rollout in nearly all the key markets in Europe and Asia. The launch is on track and will be substantially completed before the end of the year. The new products are being well received. Additionally, Dreams, our U.K. retail operation, is also performing well in both sales, outperforming versus the broader market, and has record customer satisfaction. This quarter performance demonstrates the strength of our international strategy and team, highlighting the long-term opportunity for the international operations.

Third, we achieved significant consolidated gross margin expansion year-over-year and are progressing towards normalized margins. After multiple years of COVID overhang, rapid inflation, macroeconomic disruption, pressured margins for a while, we're pleased to report 340 basis point improvement in consolidated adjusted gross margin year-over-year, thanks to the successful management of commodity fluctuations, improved supplier contracts, and operational improvements. This is a significant step towards driving profitability, which the team remains laser-focused on achieving. The first driver of our gross margin improvement is our ability to pass on pricing to offset commodity inflation. As you may recall, we experienced approximately 400 basis points of margin compression between 2020 and 2022, as commodity prices increased at a historical pace.

Now that pricing changes have been implemented and commodity prices have started to normalize, you can see the positive results in our reported financial statements. Additionally, we're optimistic that our scale in the market and our new product innovations will drive further gross margin expansion. The second driver of gross margin improvement is operational efficiencies. In 2022, we invested approximately $80 million above normal operating levels to ensure we met our customers' needs during period of supply chain disruptions. While these actions were critical to maintaining and strengthening our third-party retail relationships during a period of uncertainty, it put significant pressure on our margins. Beginning in the back half of 2023, operations began to drive year-over-year improvements in supply contracts, labor productivity, and logistics efficiencies. As we look ahead, we'll remain focused on cost reductions and achieving our multi-year operational targets.

Third driver to gross margin improvement is our brand and product mix. Our new Tempur and Stearns & Foster products are continuing to resonate with our premium consumers, driving momentum at the high end of the portfolio. We're also seeing a favorable mix benefit as premium consumers are less impacted by the current softness in market. Lastly, our final highlight is the J.D. Power Award announcement we made this morning. Tempur-Pedic ranked number one in customer satisfaction for mattresses online in the J.D. Power 2023 report. We are thrilled to achieve this distinction for the third year in a row for our online mattress category, and the fifth consecutive year of winning at least one of J.D. Power's awards. Now, I'll turn the call over to Bhaskar to review our financial statements in more detail.

Bhaskar Rao (EVP and CFO)

Thank you, Scott. In the third-quarter of 2023, consolidated sales were approximately $1.3 billion, and adjusted earnings per share was $0.77. While these results were slightly below our expectations, we believe we continue to outperform our competitive set in a challenging market. We have approximately $32 million of pro forma adjustments in the quarter, all of which are consistent with the terms of our senior credit facility. These adjustments are primarily related to costs incurred in connection with the planned acquisition of Mattress Firm and the previously disclosed cyber event. Turning to North American results. Net sales declined 3% in the third-quarter. On a reported basis, the wholesale channel declined 4% and the direct channel declined 1%.

North American adjusted gross margin improved a very robust 300 basis points to 43.2%, driven by favorable commodities and operational efficiencies, partially offset by deleverage. North American adjusted operating margin improved 50 basis points to 20.3%, driven by improvement in gross margins, partially offset by investments in growth initiatives. Now turning to international. International net sales increased a very solid 12% on a reported basis and 7% on a constant currency basis. As compared to the prior year, our international gross margin improved a robust 320 basis points to 56.6%, driven by commodities, mix, and favorable leverage. Our international adjusted operating margin improved 150 basis points to 16.2%, driven by improvements in gross margin, partially offset by investments. Global commodity prices continue to trend largely in line with our expectations.

We continue to expect favorable commodity prices for the remainder of the year, though remaining significantly elevated from 2020 levels. In addition to the benefit of favorable commodity markets, we have signed multiple agreements with certain global suppliers who have recognized our scale momentum. These relationships will benefit our gross margins over the long term. Now moving on to the balance sheet and cash flow items. We have paid down approximately $200 million of debt over the first nine months of this year. At the end of the third-quarter, consolidated net debt was $2.5 billion, and our leverage ratio under our credit facility was 2.9 times, within our historical target range of 2-3 times. We generated third-quarter operating cash flow approximately $230 million.

In the last five years, the company has realized over $2.5 billion in operating cash flow, improving the business model and providing financial flexibility. I'm pleased to highlight that over the last few weeks, we have successfully refinanced our credit facilities. With this refinancing, we have meaningfully extended our debt maturities, improved our financial flexibility, and increased our potential total senior credit funding, all while maintaining our current cost of funds in what is clearly a tight commercial banking market. As we previously reported, under the terms of our purchase agreement with Mattress Firm, we have temporarily suspended repurchases under our share repurchase authorization as we work towards the closing of the transaction. Over this interim period between sign and close, we expect to significantly deleverage as we plan to use cash to pay down debt.

After the acquisition closes, we anticipate our leverage ratio to be between 3 and 3.25 times. Now turning to 2023 guidance. We now expect adjusted EPS to be in the range of $2.30-$2.50. We have maintained a 20-cent range, which reflects the global uncertainty. The midpoint of our revised annual guidance is based on sales consistent with prior year.

This includes our updated expectation that the U.S. industry volumes will be down low double-digits year-over-year, versus our prior expectation of high single digits, and the execution of our key initiatives, new product launches, and the wraparound impact of pricing, sales and marketing investments of $20 million to support product launches, and record advertising spend of approximately $480 million as we continue to support our leading brands and new products. All this results in adjusted EBITDA for the year of approximately $885 million at the midpoint of the range, consistent with prior year. I should point out, the adjusted EPS range reflects foreign exchange rates that are unfavorable versus our previous expectations.

Our current outlook for 2023 now contemplates an FX headwind, indicating our fourth quarter 2023 adjusted EPS has been reduced $0.04 versus our previous expectations. Our guidance also considers the following allocations of capital: a quarterly dividend of $0.11, representing a 10% increase relative to 2022, and CapEx of approximately $200 million, which includes $90 million of growth, primarily to fund the completion of our Crawfordsville facility. Going forward, we would expect our CapEx to return to a more normalized level of spend. We think of annualized CapEx as approximately $150 million, driven by maintenance spend of 110, and growth spend of approximately $40 million. Lastly, I would like to flag a few modeling items.

For the full-year 2023, we expect D&A of approximately $185 million-$190 million, interest expense of about $130 million on a tax rate of 25%, and a diluted share count of 177.5 million shares. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Scott.

Scott Thompson (Chairman, President and CEO)

Thanks. Nice job, Bhaskar. Before opening up the call for questions, let me provide a brief update on our pending acquisition of Mattress Firm. Consistent with our expectations, we are currently responding to the Federal Trade Commission's robust second request, which we expect to complete in the fourth quarter of 2023. We continue to expect the transactions to close in mid-to-late 2024. We continue to work closely with Mattress Firm's leadership team.

... We receive high level updates on numerous topics, including their financial performance. Mattress Firm has an October 3 fiscal year end, and will report their fiscal results when their audit is complete, most likely in early December. Their preliminary results are in line with our expectations. Finally, I'm pleased to share that Tempur Sealy and Mattress Firm continue to make joint progress in planning for post-closing, including solidifying key supplier relations ahead of the expected close. Since announcing the acquisition in May, Tempur Sealy has signed numerous post-closing supply agreements with existing Mattress Firm suppliers and one supply agreement with a company not currently supplying Mattress Firm. These contracts are consistent with our expectation for Mattress Firm to continue as a multi-branded retailer post-closing. A few additional discussions regarding supplier relations are ongoing.

In summary, our progress towards the transaction close is on track, and we look forward to joining with the Mattress Firm team. With that, I'll open up the call for questions, operator.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you'll need to press star one one on your telephone. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please wait for your name to be announced. We ask that you limit yourself to one question. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. One moment for our first question. Our first question comes from the line of Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs. Your line is now open.

Susan Maklari (Senior Equity Research Analyst, Homebuilding and Building Products)

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Scott, why don't we start by talking a bit about the demand environment? I think that, you know, obviously, things felt a little softer in the quarter than maybe some had anticipated, and appreciating the color you gave in your comments. But, you know, can you talk a bit more about how things trended during the quarter, any sort of anything of note in there, and how you're thinking about the business as we progress through the balance of this year?

Scott Thompson (Chairman, President and CEO)

Sure. Thank you for your question, Susan. I mean, first of all, let's not overlook that the international team had good, solid growth in the quarter, and I think your question is really more directed towards North America. And then to kind of streamline your question even further, our Mexico operations had a great quarter, and Canada was solid. So kind of ratcheted down our largest market, which is where your question is really focused, is the U.S. market. As far as how the quarter progressed, the same trends that I think we talked about probably in the second quarter we saw in the third-quarter, which is in non-holiday periods, the troughs have gotten deeper, and then during holiday periods, we're seeing growth in the market.

But the holiday periods haven't been strong enough to offset the trough. So that would be the we'll call that in quarter kind of trend. That's the same trend that we would expect in the fourth quarter. It continues to be what I'd call the normalization of the seasonality that the business used to incur before COVID, with maybe slightly deeper troughs and slightly higher peaks during the holiday period. I think you also kind of asked in general, just like demand. I mean, I think as you well know, the industry, from a unit standpoint, has been in decline for nine quarters, making it where we currently are sitting at, you know, great recession kind of volumes in the industry, that we're working through.

I'm sure some of that has to do with slowdown in the general economy, and we're talking U.S. here and wallet shift. There's probably some minor pullback or pull forward from COVID, although we've never really thought that that was a big number. I think the biggest thing that the industry is working through is really advertising. You know, as you know, we've got a lot of smart people and a lot of analytics that go on to look at advertising, both ours and the effectiveness of it, what goes on in the industry.

And in looking at it, as we try to understand why the industry is having such a tough slump compared to historical volumes, and we're off our trend lines, if you look at it, manufacturer advertising over the last three years is down 40%. And if you look at the retailers, their advertising is down 20%. And yeah, that's an issue, but I think probably a bigger issue is when you dive into that reduced advertising and you look at the mix of what people are doing, both from a manufacturing standpoint and a retailer standpoint, they've moved from top-of-funnel advertising over the last three years to the bottom of the funnel.

The manufacturers have moved about 40% of their advertising from the top of the funnel to the bottom, and retailers have also moved probably 40 to 40 percent plus of their advertising from the top of the funnel to the bottom of the funnel. So what does that mean? That means we're not putting enough customers in the funnel, triggering their, their thinking about mattresses, and we're all kind of fighting for the few customers that happen to trip into the funnel, is, is what's going on in, in the industry. If you play with the math, that means total top funnel advertising for manufacturers is down 64% when you, when you include the decline in advertising plus the mix change, and for retailers, it's down 44. That is an enormous amount of advertising dollars taken off the top of the funnel....

I think that's the big problem in traffic. I think that's actually the bigger issue than share of wallet and other things that people, people like to talk about. Now, from our standpoint, we continue to support the industry as a manufacturer, and our advertising expense, we have not, we've not cut. So with us not cutting, you can see the other ad manufacturers are clearly not helping pull the funnel forward. We have moved some to the bottom of the funnel, and we're looking, we're looking at that.

What we're doing to help kind of get the industry, you know, back on track is we're working with other retailers and major retailers, walking them through some of this analysis, talking to them about it, and it's resonating with them, and some of the large retailers are relooking at their advertising mix and dollar amount.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Peter Keith with Piper Sandler. Your line is now open. Peter, your line is now open.

Peter Keith (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst, Hardlines and Broadlines)

Sorry about that. Good morning, everyone.

Scott Thompson (Chairman, President and CEO)

Good morning.

Peter Keith (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst, Hardlines and Broadlines)

So really nice gross margin, really nice gross margin expansion. I think the surprise to me, and I think from others, was the growth in SG&A. And you did reference that you're making some growth investments. So could you unpack a little bit what changed with Q3? Did anything accelerate? And maybe detail what some of these growth investments are.

Bhaskar Rao (EVP and CFO)

Absolutely. So, one of the important things, as Scott mentioned, is, is that we want to continue to support our brands and products, so we continue to advertise. And what we believe is that, that advertising is showing itself and that we continue to outperform the market and, and capture share. So, a piece of that is going to be advertising. What I would further say is, is that, we, we remain, very positive and constructive on our own doors, specifically our Tempur retail store strategy. And as you can imagine, those are very unique type of shopping experiences that have unique locations, very long tail on those. So those. We've identified those opportunities. So as you think about, the investments in those stores, that's what, that's what's flowing through selling and marketing as well.

Outside of that, and as we think about those things, if those things are gonna continue to pay dividends as you think about growth in the out years, we're gonna continue to invest in future growth.

Scott Thompson (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yes, I mean, that's consistent with what we said. We did not pull back, what I'd call short-term things to worry about, you know, quarter earnings. When we look at the market share gains we're getting and what we're doing as far as strengthening our competitive position, we felt like those investments, we should continue to make them. And they're advertising, and there's some new stores at Tempur, and those take some startup costs and stuff. But, we've stayed on track with our growth plan.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Bobby Griffin with Raymond James. Your line is now open.

Bobby Griffin (Managing Director of Equity Research, Consumer Hardlines and Retail)

Good morning, buddy. Thanks for taking my questions.

Bhaskar Rao (EVP and CFO)

You bet.

Bobby Griffin (Managing Director of Equity Research, Consumer Hardlines and Retail)

John and Bhaskar, you know, clearly a very dynamic market here and not asking really for 2024 guidance. We'll all make our own predictions. But when you look at this year and you kind of look how it played out, can you maybe highlight a few of the aspects that might not repeat from a cost standpoint in 2024 that we should keep in mind? And then on the other side, is there things coming in 2024 that we should also model in that maybe didn't occur this year from a product investment standpoint, or anything about that, just to help us, you know, think about the flow in and flow out of costs and expenses next year?

Scott Thompson (Chairman, President and CEO)

Sure. I'll start, and then Bhaskar will probably enhance it and clean it up. I think the one thing that jumps to mind, and it's really a highlight for the quarter, is the operational efficiencies that we're beginning to flow through the financial statements. Look, the last few years were really a mess in operations, because supply chain issues, commodity changes, an AX conversion, staffing issues. I mean, look, the operating team's done a great job in a very tough operating environment. Well, all that's kind of normalized, and we're back to focusing, like we used to do historically, on driving efficiencies. We're getting back on our metrics, and this is really the first quarter that you're beginning to see that, in the margins.

So that's an internal issue, and I'm optimistic that, and you're gonna continue to see that, in 2024. I think you can also see one of the big highlights is the international sales group. As we've talked about this huge project, which again, took a lot of energy from operations, and got them not, kind of off focus from an efficiency standpoint. We're through that project, so I'm expecting some, some operating efficiencies internationally. Plus, the product is resonating in the marketplace. I think it was like a 12% growth, give or take, Bhaskar-

Bhaskar Rao (EVP and CFO)

Correct.

Scott Thompson (Chairman, President and CEO)

For the international group. And think about that. This is high-end product in the international market at a time of geopolitical complications, we'll call it. So, we're thrilled. This is higher ASP product, and it's resonating. We'd expect to get leverage in the international operation from sales. Bhaskar, what are the, just off the top of your head?

Bhaskar Rao (EVP and CFO)

No, I think all those are the right way to think about it. A number of growth initiatives to drive the top line, and then the operations, or from a gross margin standpoint, we should see those tailwinds continue.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Jason Haas with Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Jason Haas (Research Analyst, Consumer)

Hey, good morning, and thanks for taking my question. Scott, in light of your comments to a previous question, I'm curious if you could say what you think is needed for the industry to get back to more normalized unit levels?

... Do you think we need to see a pickup in industry advertising? Do we need to see more housing turnover, or is it just going to take time? What do you think is key to get there?

Scott Thompson (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah, I think we all fell in love with low funnel advertising, and some others pulled back on their advertising, hoping to draft on other people. I think the bedding is an industry that you have to trigger the customer to think about. People don't wake up one day and say, "Let's go buy a bunch of beds." And the industry is very successful when it advertises. And so I think it's primarily a lack of advertising by people and probably a little bit of a mixed fine-tuning. I think I would also point to, if you look at what Tempur Sealy's done, you know, I mean, look, it's not any secret. We've gathered a lot of market share.

And you see that in our Stearns & Foster product, where we've done higher than historical advertising dollars in there. So we've proven that advertising works. Yeah, the product's great, sales team's great, but you gotta have the advertising in there. And so, yeah, I think advertising is the key. You'll hear retailers talk about traffic, and that is the issue, and everybody needs to get back to working a little bit on the top funnel and getting people in the funnel rather than, you know, waiting, try at the last minute, grab them off their purchase journey at the end.

Things like manufacturers, slot, buying slots or doing spiffs, those kind of dollar investments are all just, fighting over the customers in the marketplace and aren't productive, and they really aren't something that Tempur Sealy's done. We've had some other manufacturers, try to work that angle.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Seth Basham with Wedbush Securities. Your line is now open.

Seth Basham (Managing Director, Equity Research)

Thanks a lot, and good morning. I was hoping for a little bit more color around the supply agreements you're talking about. So the new supply agreements that you're signing, with existing suppliers or even one new supplier you mentioned, are these beneficial to you because of the proposed acquisition of Mattress Firm, or are those independent? And how should we think about the benefits to gross margin from these into 2024?

Scott Thompson (Chairman, President and CEO)

Okay, let me talk about those. I mean, we're buying Mattress Firm. It has other suppliers, and we decided it would be advantageous to go ahead and sign some post-merger supply agreements with those suppliers. Why did we think that? One is some of these suppliers, Mattress Firm is their largest customer, and it creates an uncertainty in their minds. Some of them need to refinance their debt. Some of them just need to figure out their staffing. Some of these products have long lead times. And so in order to have a stable market, it seemed appropriate to go ahead and both parties come together, make sure we have a meeting of the minds, and contractually arrange what that looks like. So, you know, it's good for them.

It's also good for us because it gives us certainty that we're not going to have any supply disruptions. And with the contracts we've signed, we've got enough non-Tempur Sealy suppliers to have a multi-branded Mattress Firm floor, and service our customers. It also gives the Mattress Firm folks, the RSAs, comfort that they're going to have some of the non-Tempur Sealy products that they love to market. It also is friendly from an FTC standpoint, to the extent if the FTC has concerns that suppliers are going to get shut out, you know, it's not consistent with our business plan overseas at Dreams or anywhere else, it's not our business plan here. But, you know, we've got contracts also we put in place to demonstrate that our business plan is being executed.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Brad Thomas with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

Bradley Thomas (Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, thanks. Good morning. Scott, was hoping I could get a little bit of your kind of first blush on how you're thinking about the industry as you look out to 2024. You know, obviously, some of the leading indicators of the health of the consumer, like ramping student loan payments, could be a headwind. Obviously, interest rates are going higher, housing's been slower. So curious your early take on 2024, and if the industry stays challenged, can you help us think about, you know, how Tempur might change strategy, if at all, in that kind of environment? Thanks.

Scott Thompson (Chairman, President and CEO)

Sure. Look, and we certainly see and agree that there are some headwinds in 2024 and don't want to, you know, underestimate those or let you think that we've got our head in the sand. Those are all good points of why the macro should be some headwinds in there. But if you look at the industry, we're already so far on the bottom from historical standpoints, that I think that we probably are in good shape. I think some of this is self-inflicted, from our execution, from an industry standpoint on advertising. So I, I've used the term, bouncing around the bottom. Probably the industry took a little bit of a step down, probably bounced a little further down in the bottom.

But I think you either get in 2024 bouncing around the bottom or you get this slow recovery that we've been looking for in the industry. What's that mean for Tempur Sealy? I see nothing going on in the marketplace that would make me think that we would not continue to take market share. And so without, I don't know what 2024 looks like yet, we haven't finished our budgeting. But I think even if it's a we'll call it a softer overall market, I think our market share gains will help offset issues there.

And then, as I mentioned earlier on the call, we've got some internal issues that we're in control of from a cost standpoint that I think give us some optimism as to, we'll call it EPS, when you get down there. Top line's gonna be a little more volatile to look at, but I think we feel relatively comfortable going into 2024, with more details coming when it's appropriate.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment for our next question, please. Our next question comes from the line of Atul Maheswari with UBS. Your line is now open.

Atul Maheswari (Equity Research Analyst)

Good morning, thanks a lot for taking my question. Scott, the question that we keep getting from investors who are taking a fresh look at the TPX story, is that who is TPX gaining all the share from, and why is it gaining share? Really a two-part question. Can you provide some color on the who, and then on the why, how is the product and marketing-

Scott Thompson (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah

Atul Maheswari (Equity Research Analyst)

... strategy at TPX different? And then related to that, Scott, where is the incremental opportunity to continue to gain share given your already robust share position in the U.S.? And then what is the risk that some of your competitors might ultimately catch up, the ones who have been disrupted? Thank you.

Scott Thompson (Chairman, President and CEO)

Sure. Sure, good detailed question. First of all, I don't want to forget the international market. So, you know, first of all, just internationally, taking a large amount of share, obviously, with what we reported this quarter. Lots of competition out there, so we're not gonna talk about it because it would take us all day to go through each country. So I think your question really is more pointed towards the U.S. Okay, so I'm gonna focus on the U.S., but let's not forget, internationally, we're taking a good bit of share all around the world. So when you go to the U.S., I'm gonna pause here a second, but I think this is. I think we're taking share from everybody.

Like, I mean, there might be a smaller player somewhere in the group, but, you know, I think we think the industry was down, call it, low double-digits. I think that's not far off, what our friends over at Leggett & Platt think. I think as others report their numbers, we can kind of solidify and perfect that number. And so if you call the industry, we'll just call it down 10% for talking terms. And in the US, Bhaskar, we were down, like, one or two?

Atul Maheswari (Equity Research Analyst)

Actually, three.

Scott Thompson (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah, yeah, something, something like that. So if you play with the numbers, that means that other competitors had a really tough, tough time. When I sit on sales calls, I don't hear of another competitor taking share from us. So I'm gonna say we're taking a little bit of share from probably most everybody. At some point, and I've said this in the past, the share gains probably will reduce as a percentage because our base is bigger and their base is smaller. But by then, I would expect that the industry also is probably in recovery. But no, I think there's still further share gains.

You know, we've got some stuff in the works, and I would expect, from what I've seen, 2024, that we would take share in the U.S. and certainly take share, you know, internationally. When you kind of asked about how are we doing it and what's our secret sauce, I mean, like, it's, you know, it's not too big a secret. It's we put the money in the beds with great product. We don't cut corners. We don't optimize to the detriment of our retailers or to our customers and our product. We invest in our people, and our sales force has been very stable and productive, and our marketing departments and our staff have been very stable. We invest in people in good times and bad times. We believe in advertising.

It drives the industry. And, you know, we've been advertising significantly, and we'll continue to advertise. And we make what I think at times are, you know, the long-term decision over the short-term decision. And in this quarter, there were some decisions that we made during the quarter that I think will pay dividends to us in 2024. And we don't have discussions about optimizing quarters. We have discussions about, you know, optimizing our competitive position. So, hopefully, that's helpful.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment for our next question, please. Our next question comes from the line of Keith Hughes with Truist. Your line is now open.

Keith Hughes (Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst)

Thank you. I had a question on international. Amongst that 7% organic growth, can you talk about how Dreams did versus that?

Scott Thompson (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah.

Keith Hughes (Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst)

Are we starting to feel the influence of the new product launches? Is there enough out there to be affecting the numbers?

Scott Thompson (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah. Thank you, thank you for that direct question because it's actually a great, great story. That, that, as you may know, the U.K. market is really tough. I mean, the U.K. market, from a retail standpoint for durable goods and home, is a very tough market, maybe one of the toughest that we're experiencing around the world. The Dreams team has done a fabulous job. They actually had growth in sales-

Keith Hughes (Managing Director, Senior Equity Analyst)

Mm-hmm.

Scott Thompson (Chairman, President and CEO)

In the quarter, which is what I just told you, should indicate they had significant market share gains. They continue to be able to hit their acquisition EBITDA budget, and the team has done it with outstanding execution. So on the product standpoint, there's new products coming to the UK. They actually do not have the new Tempur product. They're really the only major market that doesn't have it, because there's some special fire retardant requirements in the UK, so it takes a little—they're always last on it. So they'll actually start gearing up in the first part of next year for what I'll call the new Tempur beds. They've got some other new product coming.

They make a good bit of their own product, their own plant, but they're still dealing with a tough market. But boy, they have really done, which, you know, from a Harvard Business study, you would want people to do, which is in a tough market, really solidify their competitive position. And outside of Dreams, the new product is resonating with the consumer, and we saw nice growth outside of Dreams as well, in a very tough market.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment for our next question, please. Our next question comes from the line of Laura Champine with Loop Capital. Your line is now open.

Laura Champine (Director of Research, Senior Consumer Analyst)

Thanks for taking my question, and I appreciate the commentary that Mattress Firm's performance met your internal expectations, but not being privy to those. Can you just give us a sense of how they're tracking versus the industry, which I think you commented that, that, Tempur believes the mattress industry was down low double-digits in the quarter?

Scott Thompson (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah, let me put some words around it, but appreciate that I'm also trying to respect my future partners. Look, I would say, I guess I could say these words: Mattress Firm has performed—the industry has been worse than we expected. That's very clear from our previous comment, and Mattress Firm actually has performed better than we would have expected in this particular U.S. economy. I think that probably helps reconcile you to what you're trying to work on. They've done well. We'll let them report, and we're certainly thrilled to have them join the company.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment for our next question, please. Our next question comes from the line of Carla Casella with JP Morgan. Your line is now open.

Carla Casella (Managing Director, Senior Analyst)

Hi, thank you for taking the question. You commented on commodities and how they are improving or normalizing a bit, but there are still some that are well above the pandemic. Can you just break it down a little bit in terms of what some of the key commodities, what you're seeing?

Scott Thompson (Chairman, President and CEO)

Absolutely. So, the way I think about that is, just from a framing standpoint, is that we indicated, historically, that we've been able to cover the cost of the commodity inflation through taking price. However, from a mathematical standpoint, that created a margin, meaning, the math issue, approximately 400 basis points. So sitting here today, we think we're, there's still about a half of that to go. The way I think about from a commodity overall standpoint, it's really puts and takes. Everything is definitely off its peaks, and whether that be chemicals, lumber, steel, et cetera. However, if you look at where we started this journey, there's still a way, there's still a way to go.

However, commodities in and of itself is not the story, is that there's also another component of that story, which is we continue to work with our suppliers, our major suppliers, to make sure that they understand the potential from a company standpoint and the momentum that we have. So yes, we've seen some tailwinds from commodities over the last couple of bits. However, what we've also done is we've entered into very constructive win-win contracts and relationships with our existing suppliers to ensure that the gift keeps on giving, not only from a commodity standpoint, but as a relationship, a strategic relationship, to see benefits from an EBITDA standpoint.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Question comes from the line of William Reuter with Bank of America. Your line is now open.

William Reuter (Managing Director, Senior Research Analyst)

Good morning. There's clearly a little bit of concern about lower income and middle income customers that may be experiencing increasing debt levels. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about how your sales break down between different demographics, and if you're seeing some of those trends start to impact your results?

Scott Thompson (Chairman, President and CEO)

Sure. Consistent with the last few quarters, there's no question that entry-level customer is challenged. We have the higher-end products are doing well and growing. Call that Stearns & Foster and Tempur, and especially high-end Tempur. And where you see real pressure, and again, we're talking U.S., is in the entry-level customer, which would be our entry-level Sealy product, Sealy Posturepedic. Big markets doing better. But we would share that the entry-level customer is really not active in the current market.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Seth Basham with Wedbush Securities. Your line is now open.

Seth Basham (Managing Director, Equity Research)

Thank you. Could I have a follow-up? You guys talked about being on track to respond to the FTC this quarter. Is that timing at all longer than previously expected? I was. I thought you'd be done with responding to that by now.

Scott Thompson (Chairman, President and CEO)

I would say, look, it's a, it's a complicated process, obviously. I think we've provided the government with one-- with over 1 million documents, just to be clear. We've always said that we'd be substantially complete in the fourth quarter. We're off probably, maybe two, three weeks, probably from the original timeline, at the very, at the very start. That's fair.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. At this time, I'd like to hand the conference back to Mr. Scott Thompson for closing remarks.

Scott Thompson (Chairman, President and CEO)

Thank you, operator. To our over 12,000 employees around the world, thank you for what you do every day to make the company successful. To our retail partners, thank you for your outstanding representation of our brands. To our shareholders and lenders, thank you for your confidence and leadership, and the leadership of the company and its board. This ends today's call, operator. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a wonderful day.