Q1 2024 Earnings Summary
- Strong Sales Momentum and Outperformance in Comps: Shake Shack is experiencing improving same-Shack sales, reporting a 4.9% growth in April with momentum continuing into May, despite industry-wide traffic declines. This positive trend is attributed to effective marketing strategies, including brand campaigns, promotions, and menu innovations, which are offsetting industry pressures.
- Confidence in Unit Growth and Expansion Opportunities: The company plans to open approximately 40 new company-operated Shacks in 2024, including entering new markets like Pittsburgh and international expansion into Canada. Shake Shack sees significant untapped opportunities in markets like Western Europe and Latin America, indicating strong growth potential ahead.
- Operational Improvements Driving Margin Expansion: Shake Shack expects to achieve restaurant-level profit margins of 20.2% to 21% in 2024, continuing a trend of sustained margin improvement. They are implementing strategies to address inflationary pressures, such as supply chain optimization, labor scheduling enhancements, and reducing turnover, which are expected to further enhance profitability.
- Intensifying competition may pressure Shake Shack's market share and require continuous innovation. The CEO acknowledges that "there's always going to be great competition" and that Shake Shack needs to "continually reinvent" and "get better products, have exciting LTOs, have exciting menu evolution over the years" to stay competitive.
- Ongoing wage inflationary and supply chain pressures could limit future margin expansion. The company faces "wage inflationary pressures" and "supply chain remains broadly inflationary," which may impact margins despite their efforts on operational efficiencies.
- Increased marketing expenses may impact profitability if sales do not grow proportionally. The company is "investing more in marketing, both at our store level and also at the company G&A level," causing an increase in "other OpEx" expenses. While they expect these strategies to be margin-accretive, there is a risk that these increased expenses may not result in proportional sales growth.
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Margin Guidance
Q: Is margin guidance conservative; is there upside potential?
A: Management acknowledged that beef costs remain a big uncertainty since they are not contracted and are subject to macro conditions. Despite potential pressures from beef costs and marketing investments, they are proud of ongoing improvements in supply chain and labor efficiency. The guidance is for a 20.2% to 21% margin, representing a 30 to 110 basis point improvement over last year.
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Comp Sales Momentum
Q: What drives your comp sales outperformance versus industry?
A: Despite industry traffic pressure, Shake Shack's comps improved each month, with April performing even better and sustaining into May. Key drivers include increased marketing, limited-time offers (LTOs), guest experience strategies, and successful campaigns like Chicken Sundays. They also have easier comparisons in upcoming quarters.
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Labor Cost Initiatives
Q: Can you elaborate on Phase 2 labor changes and their impact?
A: The new labor model optimizes scheduling based on menu mix, channel mix, and daypart peaks, providing tailored deployment recommendations. While pleased with test results, they have not embedded any Phase 2 savings into annual store margin guidance and plan to roll it out to all company-operated Shacks by year-end.
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Kiosk Growth Potential
Q: Is there more upside to kiosk-driven check growth?
A: Management believes they are in early stages of kiosk potential. After retrofitting all Shacks with kiosks, they are now optimizing the guest order journey, seeing a high-teens lift in check from kiosks. They expect continued growth by enhancing digital merchandising and upsell opportunities.
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Unit Growth Outlook
Q: Can you sustain 40 international unit openings despite macro headwinds?
A: They feel very strong about the 40 Shack international opening guidance. Despite pressures in parts of China, their Asia business has performed well. They also see significant opportunities in untapped regions like Western Europe and will open their first Shack in Canada later this year.
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Consumer Demand Headwinds
Q: Are consumer demand headwinds stabilizing or intensifying?
A: They have observed consistent consumer pressure, particularly lower-income consumers trading down. These trends have remained similar for about a year, and they expect them to continue. Shake Shack mitigates the impact by driving traffic through other strategies and brand building.
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Marketing Investments
Q: How are increased marketing investments affecting margins?
A: Increased marketing spending is aimed at sales-driving strategies but is done in a margin-accretive way. While there is a slight increase in other operating expenses, the resulting sales are accretive to profitability.
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Margin Expansion Potential
Q: Can margins expand materially despite cost pressures?
A: While not providing long-term guidance, management highlights ongoing initiatives in supply chain efficiencies, labor optimization, and cost savings. They acknowledge wage and supply chain inflation but are proud of steady margin improvements and expect another year of margin expansion.
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Value Strategy and Brand Position
Q: How do you balance value offers with premium brand?
A: Shake Shack focuses on added-value promotions that enhance the guest experience without discounting the brand. They avoid deep discounts or dollar menus to maintain their premium position, emphasizing quality ingredients and hospitality.
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Competitive Landscape
Q: How is increased competition affecting Shake Shack?
A: Acknowledging ongoing competition, Shake Shack positions itself above traditional fast food and below casual dining, focusing on quality and experience. They continue to innovate with better products and exciting menu evolution to stay competitive.
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Comps Guidance Clarification
Q: Why guide to low single-digit comps when April was mid-single digits?
A: In May, they will roll off about 2% price, and combined with normal seasonality, this adjusts their expectation to low single-digit comps for the second quarter.
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Advertising Opportunity
Q: Do you have the team in place to expand advertising efforts?
A: Management is excited about their current marketing team and plans to double down on efforts. The incoming CEO, Rob Lynch, with a strong marketing background, is expected to enhance opportunities.
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Consumer Backdrop Impact
Q: How is the current consumer backdrop impacting you?
A: They note consistent consumer pressure, especially among lower-income customers trading down. They mitigate this by focusing on traffic-driving strategies and brand building.
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Competitive Growth Pace
Q: How is the pace of competition affecting your strategy?
A: Shake Shack acknowledges competition but remains confident in its unique positioning between fast food and casual dining. They focus on continuous improvement and innovation to stay ahead.