Shinhan Financial Group - Earnings Call - Q1 2025

Transcript

Cheol Woo Park (Head of Investor Relations)

Good afternoon. This is Cheol Woo Park, Head of IR at Shinhan Financial Group. Thank you very much for joining the 2025 Q1 earnings presentation of Shinhan Financial Group. Today we have our Group CFO, Sang-Young Chun, Group CSO, Seog-Heon Koh, Group CRO, Dong-Gun Bang, Shinhan Bank CFO, Jeong-Bin Lee, Shinhan Card CFO, Hae-Chang Park, Shinhan Investment & Securities CFO, Jeong-Hoon Jang, and Shinhan Life CFO, Song Hwan-Joo, also attending. We will start with an update on the progress of the value-up plan that we had announced in July and give you some details of what we have in plan this year before taking you through our Q1 business results. After the presentation, we will open the floor and receive your questions. From now, our Group CFO, Sang-Young Chun, will take you through the presentation.

Good afternoon. Thank you for joining the Shinhan Financial Group 2025 Q1 earnings presentation.

Before looking at our Q1 results, I would like to start from page 2 and explain the 2025 value-up plan, which was publicly disclosed today. The 2025 value-up plan is based on the results of a 2024 implementation assessment led by the BoD, as well as diagnosis of the appropriateness of existing targets and newly established near-term targets and execution plans for 2025. Looking back on 2024 performance, Group ROE fell YOY due to a decrease in non-bank affiliate earnings, but the CET1 ratio remained above 13% every quarter despite greater market volatility. That said, considering CET1 sensitivity to macro volatility and uncertainty, current management levels were found somewhat tight. In shareholder return, active share buyback last year reduced the number of outstanding shares to less than 500 million shares as of the end of last year, boosting our shareholder return ratio to 40.2%.

Based on such performance review, we decided to maintain the original targets covering until 2027 while establishing the following plans for 2025, which will be the first year of proper implementation of our value-up plan. First, we plan to improve ROE by more than 50 basis points YOY through stable bank earnings and structural improvement of non-bank businesses. Second, we plan to unlock additional capital capacity through efficient asset management. We aim to maintain the CET1 ratio at 13.1% or above, which is 10 basis points higher than the existing target level and giving us greater flexibility. Third, given the current PBR levels, which are heavily undervalued, buyback and cancellation will be the focus for a faster-paced shareholder return program to increase the shareholder return ratio to 42% or above in 2025.

To achieve this value-up plan in 2025 with better execution, we will operate key action initiatives, including structural improvement of non-bank businesses, efficient asset management, and stronger links between evaluation and compensation. For details, please refer to the publicly disclosed materials. Pages 3 through 5 show the value-up plan progress as of the end of Q1 this year, and we plan to keep you updated each quarter using the same format. Now, to turn to page 6 for our Q1 business results, starting from the business highlights. 2025 Q1 tentative Group CET1 is 13.27%, which is 21 basis points improvement year to date. Despite the effects of Basel III group-wide RWA reduction efforts and solid earnings growth from the banking business, it contributed to the healthy CET1. Based on this, the BoD today resolved on Q1 cash dividend of KRW 570, which is a KRW 30 increase quarter over quarter.

Regarding share buyback, out of the KRW 650 billion planned for the first half, buyback of KRW 285.7 billion has been completed as of the end of March. Among this, KRW 150 billion announced last year is scheduled for cancellation late April, and the rest is scheduled for cancellation by the end of June. Q1 group net income was KRW 1,488.3 billion, which is a 12.6% YOY increase thanks to the absence of non-operating one-offs and solid growth of interest income. Page 7 looks at capital. Despite a larger buyback program than the previous year, group CET1 improved 21 basis points YTD based on well-managed RWA and stable net income. Despite the RWA increasing effect of KRW 5.4 trillion YTD due to regulation, including Basel III, appropriate Korean Won loan growth combined with group-level RWA control efforts, including portfolio rebalancing, limited RWA increase to KRW 3.1 trillion YTD.

We will continue to focus on maintaining a stable capital ratio through internal efficiency and strategic management while sufficiently supplying necessary funds to the right places. Page 8 looks at assets and liabilities, and we move on to page 9, which looks at Group P&L. Group net income increased 12.6% YOY thanks to the absence of non-operating one-offs and growth of interest income. Based on this, ROE and ROTCE key metrics of the value-up plan increased by 1 percentage point YOY, respectively to 11.4% and 12.9% each. I will break down the details starting from the next page.

Sang-young Cheon (CFO)

Onto page 10 for our interest income. Despite falling market interest rates, our group interest income increased by 1.4% year-on-year, driven by the average balance effect from growth in our income-producing assets. Bank loans in Won increased by 0.4% versus the end of last year, mostly driven by blue-chip SME loans. Please refer to page 27 for details. For bank NIM, although the yield on interest-bearing assets, including loans in Won, dropped 12 basis points Q on Q, nonetheless, we saw alleviated funding pressure amid adequate asset growth under our broad profitability management stance and seasonal deposit inflows, on balance improving NIM by 3 basis points Q on Q. Group NIM was also improved by 5 basis points Q on Q thanks to the increase in bank NIM. Next, onto non-interest income. Group non-interest income decreased 6.3% YOY from a decline in commission and insurance-related income.

Credit card fee income was impacted by an increase in proactive customer acquisition marketing spend, while brokerage commissions were also down YOY as brokerage trading volume decreased amid market uncertainties. However, we continue to achieve growth in trust fee income from fund and bancassurance sales centered around our bank business. Also, despite the challenging environment, quite encouragingly, investment banking commissions recorded growth on both a YOY and Q on Q basis. In Q4, amid rising external and internal uncertainties, income from marketable securities, FX, and derivatives was very poor, but has since recovered back to more recurring levels, reflecting lower market rates. Although insurance-related income showed a decline YOY, this was due to the high base effect from last year, where insurance sales were quite brisk; otherwise, it's being managed at a stable level. Next, moving on to SG&A and credit costs.

Group SG&A is stable with nothing notable versus last year. Cost-to-income ratio was up 1.4 percentage points YOY, recording 37.3%. For credit costs, even though additional provisioning for real estate PF loans fell, there was an increase in recurring provisioning, reflecting the economic cycle, resulting in a 15.4% increase YOY. As a result, group nominal credit costs recorded 41 basis points, up 3 basis points YOY, while recurring CCR was 38 basis points, up 8 basis points YOY. As we move forward, while credit costs related to real estate PF is expected to stabilize gradually, corporates will likely face greater credit risk from delayed economic recovery, and vulnerable customers may become increasingly challenged. Overall, credit costs, in terms of size, may be slightly greater than our initial expectations, while recovery may take longer.

However, we have already built up sufficient loss-absorbing capacity and will enforce even closer monitoring and control for soundness and keep credit costs well under control within the limits of our established business plans. Please refer to pages 13 and 14 for details on group asset quality and loss-absorbing capacity. Moving on to our group and overseas business earnings, page 15. For bank, thanks to solid interest income and balanced portfolio, we saw improved fee and marketable security income driving overall performance for the broad group. For Shinhan Card and Capital, as profitability was impacted due to regulatory change and still high interest rate environment, both continued sluggish performance with pressure on both the funding and credit cost side. For investment securities, despite increased market uncertainty, we saw gradual recovery in recurring earning power, driven by top-line performance in IB fee income and marketable securities.

Insurance continues to deliver consistent performance same as last year thanks to a stable K-ICS ratio. For asset trust business, which recorded loss last year from large loan loss provisioning amid completion guarantee real estate trust exposure, has turned to profit. Overseas business, we're seeing solid performance trends from Vietnam, Japan this year as well. From pages 16 to 18, we outline the performance on digital and sustainability initiatives. Page 16 provides details on the main digital indicators that we have shared every quarter. Page 17 provides details on the Jeju Bank ERP banking initiative, which you may be interested in. Page 18 outlines our efforts in terms of greenhouse gas emissions reductions, also more on our inclusive and win-win financial initiative as well. From page 19, we list the detailed financials and performance of the respective affiliates, so please refer to the slides.

Recently, the Korean economy faces structural issues as well as many internal and external challenges, which represent a complexity of challenging issues, including poor domestic and export demand, contraction in corporate investment, and entrenched low growth. Our core role as a financial group is as a financial intermediary that supports the real economy, working in coordination with the policy authorities. We want to go beyond just a passive intermediary, and we're looking to be more proactive across many fronts to provide preemptive liquidity to competitive corporates and allocate capital to productive sectors of the economy to support the recovery of the real economy and help resolve the issues confronting Korea. Also, as a value-up leader and as a major player in the capital markets, we will faithfully implement our corporate value-up commitments to the market, building on the customer trust and solid underlying fundamentals.

Thank you very much for your attention.

Cheol Woo Park (Head of Investor Relations)

Thank you very much for the presentation. Now we will receive your questions. English questions will be consecutively interpreted into Korean, so please wait for a moment for that translation. Now we will receive the first question. Mr. Jae-Woong Won from HSBC, please go ahead.

Won Jae-Woong (Finance Analyst)

Can you hear me?

Cheol Woo Park (Head of Investor Relations)

Yes, we can hear you well.

Won Jae-Woong (Finance Analyst)

Despite the difficult situation, you've delivered good performance, and also you've shown a lot of effort for shareholder value. Thank you very much. I have two questions. First is Group NIM. Your full-year guidance was that NIM may have dropped by about 7-8 basis points, but looking at Q1, actually in Q1, your Group NIM went up by 5 basis points. What about the full-year outlook? Do you see the need to change your full-year NIM outlook, or can you give us your expectations of how NIM would move throughout the year?

My second question is about asset quality. We do see signs of asset quality deterioration not only at Shinhan but across all banks. Your MPL coverage ratio has dropped from 143 to 129, a large drop. The current MPL coverage ratio, do you think there's additional downside room there, or do you think that current levels you'll be able to keep? I would appreciate your thoughts on that.

Cheol Woo Park (Head of Investor Relations)

Thank you very much for those two questions. Please give us a moment to prepare our answer. Thank you very much for that question. Regarding the NIM outlook, and the second question was about asset quality. I think for NIM, it's best for our Bank CFO to mention that. Regarding the asset quality, I myself and our Group CRO will take the question.

Jeong-Bin Lee (CFO)

Yes, this is Jeong-Bin Lee, the CFO of Shinhan Bank.

You've asked about our NIM. First, I'll answer based on bank NIM, which increased by 3 basis points quarter over quarter, group NIM increased by 5 basis points quarter over quarter. The reason why it went up is that on the lending side, market rates did come down, so loan profitability is declining. That said, we also have the growth lever that we can use. By maintaining loan growth at an appropriate level, we are able to somewhat defend or offset the decreasing loan yield. In Q1, the funding cost decreased because there were some core deposits that increased, and overall funding scale was decreased. This decreased our funding cost, and that resulted in the increase of our NIM in Q1. Now, for the outlook on NIM going forward from Q2 going forward, in Q1, we were able to manage our NIM, but market rates do continue to decline.

BOK rate is likely to go down further this year. We are expecting that the declining market rates will impact our NIM, and we are expecting our NIM to come down. That said, we still have the asset side, the loan profitability levers that we can use to defend, and also we can try to collect more of the deposit-based low-cost funding to maintain our funding costs to defend our NIM as much as possible. That was the Bank CFO that answered the first question on NIM outlook. As he mentioned, we are entering a rate declining cycle this year, and we still expect our NIM to decrease throughout the year. Our NIM did improve in Q1, and that is a bit of a seasonality. Usually, Q1 has better margins in terms of NIM seasonally.

Looking at where the BOK rate is expected to go, our views have not changed. About credit cost, as we mentioned in the presentation, we're expecting the credit cost to go up a little bit, but NIM, maybe the decline will be flatter than what we had originally expected, but that's very cautiously. Your second question is about the MPL coverage ratio. Our current coverage ratio number is probably the lowest in the past year or two. This coverage ratio is explained two ways. One is not only Shinhan, but the overall market is in the lower part of the credit cycle. Recovery is being pushed back, and so substandard and below is increasing faster than planned, and that seems to be happening throughout the market.

As you can see on page 14 of our presentation, when we do provisioning at the end of each year, we do sales. Recently, the MPL sales conditions are not favorable. That is why at the end of March, Shinhan Bank sold less MPL than usual strategically. That was a strategic choice, and that is a reason that decreased the coverage ratio. What we have been emphasizing at Shinhan Financial Group level, we always prepare preemptively the loss absorption capacity, and we think that as the coverage ratio at the end of Q1 is most likely our bottom, in Q2 and Q3, our coverage ratio is expected to improve.

Dong-Gun Bang (CRO)

This is the Group CRO. If I may add on that answer, the coverage ratio, when we calculate the coverage ratio, usually what we do is if had we done a similar level of MPL sales, our actual coverage ratio would have been 180%. We think that we'll be able to bring it up to 190% at Q3 and 200% MPL coverage ratio by the end of this year. That is our management target, and we will follow that plan. Thank you very much for those answers, and we'll take the next question.

Cheol Woo Park (Head of Investor Relations)

Mr. Jeong Jun-sup from NH Investment & Securities, please go ahead.

Jun-Sup Jeong (Analyst)

Yes, thank you for the opportunity to ask two questions. First, I think it was addressed before, but in terms of your 42% target, 42% or more shareholder return target, it is in line with your previous targets as a guidance. Given the share prices and the level of shareholder return by other companies, it does appear to be a little bit on the low side, and your capital ratio actually is improving by more than expected. In terms of managing the pace as you work toward your 2027 targets, do you have any intention to speed things up a little bit? There were some discussions about different forms of reduced dividends. Could you elaborate more?

Cheol Woo Park (Head of Investor Relations)

Please bear with us as we prepare the answer.

Sang-young Cheon (CFO)

In terms of the total shareholder return level and also the pace, 42% was our target, but actually it is a minimal line. We are talking about 42% or more. As we mentioned during the presentation, regarding our corporate value-up program, we are approaching with speed, but the market valuation is quite low. In terms of reduction in shares outstanding, whatnot, we are moving a little bit faster than planned. As we mentioned regarding our value-up program, we do want to speed up our shareholder return program. We will look at overall earnings this year and the market conditions as well. A share buyback, encapsulation, we are actually open and committed to speeding things up more than our initial plan.

As we move out through the second and third quarter, we will have to see the overall earning circumstances, and the final decision will be made by the board. The PBR actually is quite undervalued at the moment. We think that as far as shareholder buybacks are concerned, it would make sense to move faster than planned. When we make our earnings call in the third quarter, we will elaborate more about any changes to our plans in terms of shareholder buyback or shareholder returns in the second half. In terms of capital reduction dividends, the government actually is collecting some views from the industry about tax benefits. Early this year, other companies did announce capital reduction dividends, and we did give it a light review, and we did have the resources to affect that if we felt it was correct.

We felt that other than retail investors, we have a lot of foreign investors, of course, corporate investors as well. The benefits actually could vary depending on the investor. That was one point of consideration among others. For us to take the lead, we prefer just to observe the market developments and approach it slowly. That was the conclusion of our initial review. Anyway, at present, as far as capital reduction dividends are concerned, we do not have any plans at the moment. We will see what the tax authorities decide later on, also developments by other companies as well, and we will make our decision on balance. In terms of how we want to return more value to our shareholders, we intend, of course, to be flexible, and we will be open to various measures.

Cheol Woo Park (Head of Investor Relations)

I hope that has answered your questions. We will take the next question from Hanwha Investment & Securities. Kim, please go ahead.

Do-Ha Kim (Research Analyst)

Thank you very much. I have a question about the value-up update. I just want to check if I understood correctly. The CET1 ratio this year is 13.1% or above. That seems to be your confidence, sign of your confidence. Even in April, the authorities have demanded an increase of corporate loans, and this could, the pressure could grow stronger as we move throughout the year. I think overall we are seeing SME loans delinquencies coming up, and credit card delinquencies are coming up faster than we had expected. If you consider the external environment, considering export companies having difficulty and looking where we are in the cycle, which may be prolonged, you have raised your hurdle on the capital targets. I'm a bit concerned about that.

What is, is this more of a commitment, or do you need to satisfy 13.1% or more of CET1 to deliver on all the other business metrics that you have this year? Second part of the question is, if you have to give out more business loans than you had planned, would that increase your RWA versus plan, and how are you going to manage your CET1 if that happens?

Cheol Woo Park (Head of Investor Relations)

Thank you very much for those questions, and please give us a moment to prepare the answer.

Sang-young Cheon (CFO)

Thank you very much for that question. You've asked whether this is a sign of our confidence, the CET1 target this year being 13.1% or above.

Actually, we have already always delivered our CET1 above 13%, and as you can see in Q1 CET1 numbers, our asset growth continues, and this is combined with internal efficiency efforts such as data cleansing to deliver 13.1%. We have increased the target by 10 basis points, and that is explained by various issues. Last year, there was a lot of macro volatility, including exchange rate, and we wanted to actually keep an additional buffer, and that's why it's 13.1%. This is comfortably deliverable. We have simulated this internally, and we are quite comfortable that we will be able to deliver at least 13.1% of CET1 this year. Your question was, what would happen if business loans have to be increased and delinquencies?

We are carefully watching the business cycle in Korea, but even at current trends, we will be able to comfortably deliver our business plan this year. Relatively speaking, Shinhan Financial Group, when it comes to asset quality, is a bit superior to others, and this year, asset soundness management is the top priority as we manage our business, so we will be particularly more tight in our management. Now, in terms of funding and asset growth, we are going to be delivering the CET1 while supplying the funds in the right places.

Cheol Woo Park (Head of Investor Relations)

Yes, we'll move on. Mr. Seol Yong-jin from SK Securities, please go ahead.

Yong-Jin Seol (Research Analyst)

Yes, thank you for the opportunity. I would like to ask more about Jeju Bank regarding your cooperation with Douzone Bizon. You were seeking a license as an internet-only bank, but then it seems that you have shifted your corporate strategy, so I'd like to hear more about that. In the mid to long term, what is the size? Do you have a target in terms of how much you want to grow your business? The overall directionality, its position within the wider group, et cetera, if you could explain. Thank you for these questions.

Cheol Woo Park (Head of Investor Relations)

Please bear with us as we prepare the answer. For Jeju Bank's ERP banking initiative, the Group CSO will address your question.

SeogHeon Koh (CSO)

Yes, this is SeogHeon Koh. I'm the Group CSO.

I think I've been attending the IR session more than 10 times now, and I think I am taking the microphone. It has been quite a while. Regarding the background in banking, of course, it's a red ocean domain with very intense competition. In terms of remaining scope or white space, of course, we have to look at the adequacy of financials. Also, it's a matter of trust. For non-audited SMEs or SOHOs, there's always some concern about the credit standing. How can we assess the credit standing of these types of potential customers to provide support? That's always very key. That would be very key in terms of receiving licensing for an internet bank. Yes, we did look at it as a potential. In terms of why we changed our direction, in order to become an internet-only bank, there are many different stakeholders involved.

There are about four consortiums that applied for a license, and each actually had more than 10 stakeholders involved in each of the consortiums. With Douzone Bizon, we have set a clear direction in terms of what we want to achieve. If there are too many stakeholders, we question whether it can be achieved. In terms of the capital, the size of the personnel, many resources or sizable resources are required, and there is a long period until we are ready to really launch products. It will take a long time to become an internet-only bank. Jeju Bank, actually as a regional bank, was faced with various constraints. We wanted to find some way to foster more competitiveness of Jeju earnings. Everything came together, and we ultimately decided to change our tact and direction.

Of course, in the mid to long term, embedded banking is the model that we have announced. Short-term corporate loans or SME loans, SOHO loans will be the focus. Once that performance is validated, then employees, corporate employees, for example, may be included in the scope as we expand business. This is actually sort of a test bed for the group. In the short term, as you may know, we're thinking KRW 1.5 trillion-KRW 2 trillion. We hope that things go well, somewhere around that level. There are lots of things that we have to think hard about throughout the process. Whether our commitment and the desired direction can be achieved or not, we have to work very hard in order to really deliver on our commitments to our shareholders.

I look forward to a lot of interest and also a lot of support from everyone regarding this initiative.

Cheol Woo Park (Head of Investor Relations)

Okay, thank you very much for the answer. We'll move on. Ms. Park Hye-jin from Daishin Securities.

Hye-jin Park (Equity Analyst)

Yes, thank you very much for this opportunity. I have a question to Shinhan Card. As we saw in the presentation, delinquencies are worsening, and you said that Shinhan Bank sold less MPL than usual because of unfavorable conditions. I do not think that is the case for credit card assets. Can you give us overall your expectations, guidance for the credit card business this year?

Cheol Woo Park (Head of Investor Relations)

Thank you very much for that great question, and please give us a moment to prepare our answers. Regarding that, the Shinhan Card CFO will answer.

Hae-Chang Park (CFO)

Yes, this is Hae-Chang Park, the CFO of Shinhan Card. The self-employed businesses are the key reason for the higher delinquencies, and they are not recovering. Interest rates did start to decline from 3Q last year, helped improve business situation, but then there was the impeachment.

The impeachment is somewhat wrapped up now, and we are expecting overall environment to improve even for the self-employed small businesses. We think that delinquencies will start to improve. Also, from April, we have our direct recovery organization in our call centers to once again reduce our delinquencies, and with that in place, we are expecting the delinquencies to improve from Q3. The Shinhan Card business performance outlook, it's mainly in the credit cost and the funding cost, which is the burden, and we are at the peak of the funding cost, and as market rates go down, our average funding cost will also go down, and that will be favorable to our P&L bottom line. As we approach the end of the year, we expect to recover to usual profitability levels.

Cheol Woo Park (Head of Investor Relations)

Thank you very much for that answer.

Currently, we have no other questions in the queue. We do know that there are other financial groups doing their earnings calls today. Perhaps that is the reason why we don't have more questions lined up, and I think this is a good place for us to end this earnings presentation, but actually we have Do-Ha Kim online.

Do-Ha Kim (Research Analyst)

Actually, I was applauding. That was the applause icon, not the raise hand icon, since I heard you were wrapping up.

Cheol Woo Park (Head of Investor Relations)

Thank you very much then. With that, we will conclude our first earnings call for the first quarter of 2025 for Shinhan Financial Group. Please refer to our website and our YouTube channel for a video of today's earnings call. Thank you very much.