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Medicine Man Technologies, Inc. (SHWZ)·Q3 2023 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Revenue grew 8% year over year to $46.7M and 10% sequentially; Adjusted EBITDA was $14.1M (30.2% margin), with positive operating cash flow of $6.9M, demonstrating resilient unit economics despite price pressure .
  • Gross margin compressed to 45.9% (from 52.0% a year ago) due to a reclassification true-up into COGS, lower-margin medical mix in Colorado, and lower initial gross margin on acquired Everest inventory; OpEx declined sequentially on integration progress, lifting operating income to $8.9M vs $5.0M in Q2 .
  • Wholesale sales rose 41% YoY, aided by New Mexico entry; loyalty and e-commerce metrics inflected positively (loyalty +16% q/q, e-commerce transactions +28% q/q), supporting traffic and mix initiatives .
  • No formal quantitative guidance; management flagged potential one-time inventory valuation adjustments tied to ERP rollout in Q4 and reiterated focus on integration, cash generation, and retail execution across 63 stores (CO 30 / NM 33) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Wholesale momentum: “41%” YoY wholesale growth as Schwazze expanded in NM and penetrated 7 of the 10 largest operators across CO/NM; Lowell Farms-licensed pre-roll is now #2 in CO and in 130+ doors .
    • Retail footprint scaling with engagement: Store count reached 63; loyalty members rose 16% q/q with NM penetration reaching 78%; combined e-commerce transactions up 28% q/q, supporting traffic and conversion .
    • Cost/ops playbook progress: Integration drove operating leverage; management highlights lean processes, SOPs, pre-roll automation, and outdoor biomass optimization; ERP rollout progressing to unlock working capital and margin benefits .
  • What Went Wrong

    • Gross margin compression: Gross margin fell to 45.9% on reclassifications to COGS, increased medical mix in CO, and lower initial margin on acquired Everest inventory .
    • Market headwinds in NM: Store count up 76% YoY in NM versus sales up 19% for the market, pressuring revenue per store and margins; illicit out-of-state product and enforcement lag cited as drags (improving per management) .
    • Interest, taxes, and leverage: Despite $8.9M operating income, Q3 posted a net loss of $0.3M; total debt of $155.1M and income taxes payable of $18.3M remain watch points for cash utilization and valuation .

Financial Results

Headline comparisons

MetricQ3 2022Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023
Revenue ($USD Millions)$43.191 $40.001 $42.375 $46.747
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$22.476 $23.033 $24.519 $21.438
Gross Margin %52.0% 58.0% 57.9% 45.9%
Income from Operations ($USD Millions)$11.115 $5.650 $4.957 $8.924
Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)$1.809 $1.745 $(6.608) $(0.322)
Diluted EPS ($)$— $(0.06) $(0.15) $(0.03)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$15.860 $14.525 $13.814 $14.119
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %36.7% 36.3% 32.6% 30.2%
Operating Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$10.298 $(0.880) $2.683 $6.946

Notes: Gross margin pressure in Q3 reflects reclassification true-up into COGS, higher medical mix in CO, and lower initial margin on Everest inventory; sequential OpEx reduction supported operating income expansion .

Segment revenue mix

Segment Revenue ($USD Millions)Q3 2022Q1 2023Q2 2023Q3 2023
Retail$39.760 $35.820 $38.099 $41.952
Wholesale$3.335 $4.059 $4.274 $4.701
Other$0.096 $0.122 $0.002 $0.094
Total Revenue$43.191 $40.001 $42.375 $46.747

KPIs and balance sheet highlights

KPI / Balance ItemQ2 2023Q3 2023
Store count (total)62 (company commentary) 63 (CO 30 / NM 33)
Loyalty members (total)+17% q/q new members ~477k total; NM ~144k (+55% q/q); loyalty penetration 63.3%
E-commerce activityPenetration +45% NM, +15% CO vs Q1 Transactions +28% q/q across NM and CO
Wholesale shareSells into 7 of top 10 operators in CO/NM
Cash & Equivalents ($M)$19.9 $19.6
Total Debt ($M)$155.4 $155.1
Operating Working Capital (non-GAAP)$10.0 $0.6
Income Taxes Payable ($M)$14.11 $18.28

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Formal revenue/margin/OpEx guidanceFY/Q4 2023None disclosed None disclosed Maintained (no formal guidance)
Inventory valuation adjustmentsQ4 2023Not previously specified Expect one-time inventory valuation adjustments tied to ERP implementation as year closes New disclosure
ERP rollout timingLate Q1–Early Q2 2024Not previously specified All facilities onto one platform by late Q1/early Q2 2024 New timing detail
Strategy/Capital allocation2024Integration and lean ops focus Unchanged: integrate acquisitions, drive cash flow, evaluate footprint/brands Maintained narrative

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1/Q2 2023)Current Period (Q3 2023)Trend
Pricing/macroBroad price pressure; CO wholesale stabilization emerging; loyalty +17% q/q new members in Q2 CO flower AMR rose 7% q/q ($703→$750); retail pricing not yet reflecting that; CO competitive promos stabilizing Stabilizing wholesale; cautious retail
New Mexico regulatory/enforcementLicense proliferation; price pressure; working with regulators Enforcement improving against illicit out-of-state product; long-term bullish, near-term pressure on per-store revenue Slightly improving backdrop
Integration/ERPCost optimization programs launched; off-premise distribution efficiencies ERP rollout to complete late Q1/early Q2 2024; expect one-time inventory adjustments; working capital benefits ahead Execution phase; near-term noise
Wholesale expansionCO stabilization; NM entry beginning Wholesale +41% YoY; now selling into 7 of 10 largest operators in CO/NM; Lowell #2 CO pre-roll Strengthening
Retail format innovationRemodeling and banner conversions (e.g., Smokey’s to Star Buds) Launched “store-within-a-store” (Star Buds + Standing Akimbo) in Fort Collins; early feedback strong Positive early traction
Loyalty/e-commerceNM e-comm +45%, CO +15% vs Q1; new member growth Loyalty ~477k total; NM ~144k; 63.3% penetration; e-comm transactions +28% q/q Engagement building
M&A vs optimizationActive M&A; “go deep” in CO/NM Focus on realizing synergies over 12–15 months; remain open to strategic deals Shift to digestion

Management Commentary

  • “We continued to increase our retail footprint during the quarter to a total of 63 stores in Colorado and New Mexico… We also generated a 41% increase in our wholesale business year-over-year… Schwazze now sells into 7 of the 10 largest operators in Colorado and New Mexico” — CEO, Nirup Krishnamurthy .
  • “Gross margin [decline] was primarily driven by… true-up expense reclassification from SG&A into cost of goods sold… increased lower margin medical sales mix in Colorado and lower initial gross margin from… Everest inventory” — CFO, Forrest Hoffmaster .
  • “We are in the process of optimizing our inventory through an ERP implementation… which we expect will lead to one-time inventory valuation adjustments as we close out the year” — CFO .
  • “Looking ahead to 2024, our strategy remains unchanged: leverage our operating playbook and further integrate our acquired assets to drive customer acquisition and sales across our expanded footprint” — CEO .
  • “Colorado… AMR increased 7% from $703/lb in Q2 to $750/lb in Q3… market is starting to stabilize” — CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • New Mexico outlook and enforcement: Management voiced disappointment with illicit out-of-state product but sees improving enforcement; strategy focuses on assortment, pricing/promo, and customer experience; maintains long-term bullish stance on NM .
  • Colorado market stabilization: Cultivation licenses down from ~855 to ~655; wholesale pricing stabilizing; competitors pulling back on extreme pricing; Schwazze pursuing licenses in new jurisdictions (e.g., Broomfield) .
  • Integration and synergy timing: Full synergy realization targeted within 12–15 months post-acquisition; Everest early integration milestones hit; standardized SOPs and lean practices implemented .
  • ERP/working capital: ERP platform consolidation expected to free working capital and improve margin; rollout completion targeted for late Q1/early Q2 2024; expect inventory valuation adjustments during implementation .
  • Sector view and catalysts: Management bullish on potential rescheduling in mid-2024 and broader capital access; expects multiple expansion for cannabis operators over time .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global/Capital IQ quarterly consensus estimates for SHWZ were not available in our system for Q3 2023; therefore, we cannot assess beats/misses versus Wall Street consensus for revenue, EPS, or EBITDA this quarter. Values would ordinarily be retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Sequential strengthening with disciplined execution: Revenue +10% q/q and operating income nearly doubled q/q as integration drove OpEx leverage; positive OCF ($6.9M) underlines cash generation focus .
  • Margin compression appears transitory: Drivers include accounting reclassification to COGS, initial Everest inventory margin, and medical mix; ERP/assortment/pricing workstreams should support margin normalization over time .
  • Wholesale and brand distribution are bright spots: +41% YoY wholesale, #2 pre-roll in CO, and penetration into 7 of top 10 operators suggest durable channel strength that can offset retail price pressure .
  • Watch near-term Q4 noise: Management flagged potential one-time inventory valuation adjustments as ERP goes live; short-term earnings volatility possible even as strategic benefits accrue .
  • Balance sheet watch items: Total debt ($155.1M) and taxes payable ($18.3M) merit monitoring as cash is redeployed to integration and growth; working capital compressed in Q3 .
  • Macro/regulatory setup improving at the margin: CO wholesale price stabilization and NM enforcement should aid pricing and mix; sector-level rescheduling and capital access could drive valuation rerating longer term .
  • Trading setup: Near-term catalysts include Q4 ERP transition outcomes and New Mexico regulatory enforcement progress; medium-term thesis centers on operating playbook replication, loyalty/e-comm engagement, and wholesale expansion .

Appendix: Additional Data Points

  • Retail mix: Retail revenue comprised ~$41.952M of Q3 revenue; wholesale ~$4.701M; other ~$0.094M .
  • Cash and equivalents stood at $19.6M; total debt $155.1M as of 9/30/23 .
  • Loyalty metrics: ~477k total loyalty members; NM ~144k; loyalty penetration 63.3% in Q3 .

Sources: SHWZ Q3 2023 8-K and press release ; Q3 2023 earnings call transcript ; Q2 2023 8-K and press release ; Q2 2023 call ; Q1 2023 8-K and press release .