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Medicine Man Technologies, Inc. (SHWZ)·Q3 2023 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Revenue grew 8% year over year to $46.7M and 10% sequentially; Adjusted EBITDA was $14.1M (30.2% margin), with positive operating cash flow of $6.9M, demonstrating resilient unit economics despite price pressure .
- Gross margin compressed to 45.9% (from 52.0% a year ago) due to a reclassification true-up into COGS, lower-margin medical mix in Colorado, and lower initial gross margin on acquired Everest inventory; OpEx declined sequentially on integration progress, lifting operating income to $8.9M vs $5.0M in Q2 .
- Wholesale sales rose 41% YoY, aided by New Mexico entry; loyalty and e-commerce metrics inflected positively (loyalty +16% q/q, e-commerce transactions +28% q/q), supporting traffic and mix initiatives .
- No formal quantitative guidance; management flagged potential one-time inventory valuation adjustments tied to ERP rollout in Q4 and reiterated focus on integration, cash generation, and retail execution across 63 stores (CO 30 / NM 33) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- Wholesale momentum: “41%” YoY wholesale growth as Schwazze expanded in NM and penetrated 7 of the 10 largest operators across CO/NM; Lowell Farms-licensed pre-roll is now #2 in CO and in 130+ doors .
- Retail footprint scaling with engagement: Store count reached 63; loyalty members rose 16% q/q with NM penetration reaching 78%; combined e-commerce transactions up 28% q/q, supporting traffic and conversion .
- Cost/ops playbook progress: Integration drove operating leverage; management highlights lean processes, SOPs, pre-roll automation, and outdoor biomass optimization; ERP rollout progressing to unlock working capital and margin benefits .
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What Went Wrong
- Gross margin compression: Gross margin fell to 45.9% on reclassifications to COGS, increased medical mix in CO, and lower initial margin on acquired Everest inventory .
- Market headwinds in NM: Store count up 76% YoY in NM versus sales up 19% for the market, pressuring revenue per store and margins; illicit out-of-state product and enforcement lag cited as drags (improving per management) .
- Interest, taxes, and leverage: Despite $8.9M operating income, Q3 posted a net loss of $0.3M; total debt of $155.1M and income taxes payable of $18.3M remain watch points for cash utilization and valuation .
Financial Results
Headline comparisons
Notes: Gross margin pressure in Q3 reflects reclassification true-up into COGS, higher medical mix in CO, and lower initial margin on Everest inventory; sequential OpEx reduction supported operating income expansion .
Segment revenue mix
KPIs and balance sheet highlights
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We continued to increase our retail footprint during the quarter to a total of 63 stores in Colorado and New Mexico… We also generated a 41% increase in our wholesale business year-over-year… Schwazze now sells into 7 of the 10 largest operators in Colorado and New Mexico” — CEO, Nirup Krishnamurthy .
- “Gross margin [decline] was primarily driven by… true-up expense reclassification from SG&A into cost of goods sold… increased lower margin medical sales mix in Colorado and lower initial gross margin from… Everest inventory” — CFO, Forrest Hoffmaster .
- “We are in the process of optimizing our inventory through an ERP implementation… which we expect will lead to one-time inventory valuation adjustments as we close out the year” — CFO .
- “Looking ahead to 2024, our strategy remains unchanged: leverage our operating playbook and further integrate our acquired assets to drive customer acquisition and sales across our expanded footprint” — CEO .
- “Colorado… AMR increased 7% from $703/lb in Q2 to $750/lb in Q3… market is starting to stabilize” — CEO .
Q&A Highlights
- New Mexico outlook and enforcement: Management voiced disappointment with illicit out-of-state product but sees improving enforcement; strategy focuses on assortment, pricing/promo, and customer experience; maintains long-term bullish stance on NM .
- Colorado market stabilization: Cultivation licenses down from ~855 to ~655; wholesale pricing stabilizing; competitors pulling back on extreme pricing; Schwazze pursuing licenses in new jurisdictions (e.g., Broomfield) .
- Integration and synergy timing: Full synergy realization targeted within 12–15 months post-acquisition; Everest early integration milestones hit; standardized SOPs and lean practices implemented .
- ERP/working capital: ERP platform consolidation expected to free working capital and improve margin; rollout completion targeted for late Q1/early Q2 2024; expect inventory valuation adjustments during implementation .
- Sector view and catalysts: Management bullish on potential rescheduling in mid-2024 and broader capital access; expects multiple expansion for cannabis operators over time .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global/Capital IQ quarterly consensus estimates for SHWZ were not available in our system for Q3 2023; therefore, we cannot assess beats/misses versus Wall Street consensus for revenue, EPS, or EBITDA this quarter. Values would ordinarily be retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Sequential strengthening with disciplined execution: Revenue +10% q/q and operating income nearly doubled q/q as integration drove OpEx leverage; positive OCF ($6.9M) underlines cash generation focus .
- Margin compression appears transitory: Drivers include accounting reclassification to COGS, initial Everest inventory margin, and medical mix; ERP/assortment/pricing workstreams should support margin normalization over time .
- Wholesale and brand distribution are bright spots: +41% YoY wholesale, #2 pre-roll in CO, and penetration into 7 of top 10 operators suggest durable channel strength that can offset retail price pressure .
- Watch near-term Q4 noise: Management flagged potential one-time inventory valuation adjustments as ERP goes live; short-term earnings volatility possible even as strategic benefits accrue .
- Balance sheet watch items: Total debt ($155.1M) and taxes payable ($18.3M) merit monitoring as cash is redeployed to integration and growth; working capital compressed in Q3 .
- Macro/regulatory setup improving at the margin: CO wholesale price stabilization and NM enforcement should aid pricing and mix; sector-level rescheduling and capital access could drive valuation rerating longer term .
- Trading setup: Near-term catalysts include Q4 ERP transition outcomes and New Mexico regulatory enforcement progress; medium-term thesis centers on operating playbook replication, loyalty/e-comm engagement, and wholesale expansion .
Appendix: Additional Data Points
- Retail mix: Retail revenue comprised ~$41.952M of Q3 revenue; wholesale ~$4.701M; other ~$0.094M .
- Cash and equivalents stood at $19.6M; total debt $155.1M as of 9/30/23 .
- Loyalty metrics: ~477k total loyalty members; NM ~144k; loyalty penetration 63.3% in Q3 .
Sources: SHWZ Q3 2023 8-K and press release ; Q3 2023 earnings call transcript –; Q2 2023 8-K and press release –; Q2 2023 call –; Q1 2023 8-K and press release –.