SIGA TECHNOLOGIES INC (SIGA)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q1 2025 revenue was $7.0M and diluted EPS was $(0.01), down sharply versus Q1 2024 ($25.4M revenue, $0.14 EPS) amid low quarter deliveries and a shift of major SNS shipments into April and beyond .
• SIGA delivered ~$53M oral TPOXX and ~$9M IV TPOXX to the U.S. SNS in April, which management expects to be recognized in Q2, positioning Q2 for a step-up in reported revenue .
• Backlog increased to $94M of SNS orders outstanding as of March 31, 2025; management expects to deliver the ~$70M orders outstanding at year-end 2024 by the end of Q3 2025, with the remainder in 2026 .
• The Board declared a $0.60 per share special cash dividend (fourth consecutive year), supported by cash of ~$162M and no debt, a potential near-term stock support catalyst .
• Quarterly Wall Street consensus for Q1 (EPS and revenue) was unavailable on S&P Global; FY 2025 consensus stands at $97.5M revenue and $0.38 EPS*, implying estimates likely need upward revision to reflect April/3Q deliveries [GetEstimates].

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• International product sale of approximately $6M, to a repeat customer in a different geography than the $11M Q4 sale, evidencing expansion of international scope .
• U.S. government engagement strengthened: ~$62M delivered to SNS in April and a new $26M IV procurement option exercised; BARDA also added $14M to fund manufacturing resiliency and IV tech transfer .
• Balance sheet strength and capital returns: ~$162M cash, no debt, and a special $0.60 dividend declared for May 15, 2025 .

What Went Wrong

• Q1 revenue and earnings contracted significantly year-over-year: total revenue fell to $7.0M from $25.4M; net loss of ~$0.4M vs net income ~$10.3M in Q1 2024, given shipment timing and limited deliveries recognized in Q1 .
• Operating results flipped to a loss as operating income moved to $(2.3)M versus $11.3M in Q1 2024; the mix and timing of deliveries drove margin compression this quarter .
• PEP supplemental NDA timeline pushed out; after targeting Q3 2025 previously, management now targets a submission in the first half of 2026 as CDC sample analysis completes in Q4 2025 .

Financial Results

Values retrieved from S&P Global for margin percentages.*

Note: No formal quarterly revenue/EPS guidance was issued; management detailed delivery schedules and regulatory timelines .

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “In the first quarter, product revenues were approximately $6 million... highlights the broadened scope of our international business.”
• “Approximately $53 million of oral TPOXX and approximately $9 million of IV TPOXX were delivered to the Strategic National Stockpile in April... expected to be included in the revenue numbers for the second quarter.”
• “Notably, in March, the U.S. government exercised its option... $26 million of IV TPOXX... government modified our current agreement to add $14 million of funding to support manufacturing activities...”
• “Our Board... declared a special cash dividend of $0.60 per share... reflects the strength of the balance sheet.”
• “At March 31, 2025, the company had a cash balance of approximately $162 million and no debt.”

Q&A Highlights

• RFP timeline: Management emphasized extensive engagement with U.S. health and security agencies and viewed recent deliveries and option exercises as positive signals; will engage with ASPR and relevant officials when ready .
• PEP program: FDA providing real-time guidance; CDC reanalysis expected Q4 2025; sNDA targeted H1 2026 .
• Capital allocation: Special dividend framed as significant capital management; management remains flexible across dividends, buybacks, and investment priorities .
• Tariffs: No observed impact on international growth; U.S.-based supply chain seen as a strategic advantage .
• $14M manufacturing funding: Supports long-term resiliency and IV tech transfer to new contract manufacturer .

Estimates Context

• Quarterly Q1 2025 consensus (EPS and revenue) was unavailable on S&P Global; therefore, a beat/miss determination versus Street for Q1 cannot be made [GetEstimates].
• FY 2025 consensus: Revenue $97.5M*; EPS $0.38*; EBITDA $29.1M*, with only one estimate in coverage for revenue and EPS, implying limited analyst participation [GetEstimates].
• FY 2024 actuals vs consensus: Revenue $138.7M actual vs $160.2M estimate*; EPS $0.82 actual vs $1.04 estimate*, indicating a miss on prior-year full-year numbers [GetEstimates] .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Q2 setup is favorable: ~$62M April SNS deliveries expected to be recognized in Q2 should materially lift revenue and margins sequentially versus Q1 .
• Backlog visibility: ~$94M SNS orders outstanding as of March 31 and plan to deliver ~$70M by end of Q3 2025 provide near-term revenue anchors, with residual into 2026 .
• Regulatory and portfolio catalysts: Japan approval broadens global label; PEP sNDA planned for H1 2026 under active FDA engagement .
• Manufacturing resilience: $14M funding and IV tech transfer could de-risk production and support future IV deliveries under the $26M procurement .
• Capital returns and balance sheet: $0.60 special dividend and ~$162M cash with no debt afford flexibility for buybacks or pipeline tuck-ins if warranted .
• Limited Street coverage: Sparse consensus and lack of quarterly estimates suggest potential for estimate revisions as shipments convert to recognized revenue; monitor Street updates post-Q2 print [GetEstimates].
• Government contract narrative: Continued bipartisan imperative and active dialogue around new multi-year SNS agreement remain a medium-term thesis driver .