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SIGA TECHNOLOGIES INC (SIGA)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 was intentionally “quiet” following a very strong Q2; SIGA reported Total Revenues of $2.62M and a Diluted EPS of $(0.09), reflecting accounting-driven product revenue recognition and semi-fixed COGS with minimal deliveries in the quarter .
  • Year-to-date, product revenues reached $85.8M and Total Revenues reached $90.8M, with Operating Income of $33.2M and Diluted EPS of $0.40; management emphasized strong cash ($171.96M) and no debt, plus $26M of outstanding U.S. orders targeted for 2026 delivery .
  • Strategic catalysts: U.S. government procurement (ongoing engagement), EMA’s CHMP opinion on the mpox referral, and regulatory progress on PEP (2026 target submission) and pediatric IND (target as soon as end of 2025); multiple international sales expected in 2026 .
  • No formal quantitative guidance; narrative focus remains on securing new contracts, executing funded programs (BARDA 19C), and maintaining capital discipline (special $0.60 dividend paid May 15, 2025) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Strong year-to-date execution: $86M product sales, $33M pre-tax operating income; cash of $171.96M and zero debt underscore financial resilience .
  • U.S. engagement sustained despite government shutdown disruptions; ~$26M outstanding IV TPOXX orders targeted for 2026 delivery; continued onshore U.S. manufacturing and lowest pricing to the U.S. government .
  • Pipeline and regulatory momentum: EMA referral responses submitted; PEP submission targeted for 2026; pediatric IND targeted as soon as year-end 2025; management emphasized TPOXX’s safety profile (~10,000 recipients across >20 trials) .
    • Quote: “We expect multiple international sales in 2026.”
    • Quote: “Since 2020, we've returned approximately $230 million to shareholders…all while incurring zero debt.”

What Went Wrong

  • Q3 revenue softness: Total Revenues fell to $2.62M vs $10.01M in Q3 2024 and $81.12M in Q2 2025; Net Loss of $(6.37)M driven by limited deliveries and semi-fixed COGS (stability, storage, security) against minimal product revenue .
  • Margin compression: Operating Loss of $(10.22)M vs Operating Income of $0.54M in Q3 2024 and $45.68M in Q2 2025; management framed it as “technical outcomes” rather than trend .
  • Regulatory uncertainty: EMA referral on mpox efficacy (CHMP meeting imminent); potential CDC delays in PEP sample analysis due to government shutdown may slip timelines .

Financial Results

Sequential Comparison (oldest → newest)

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Product Sales ($USD Millions)$5.82 $79.12 $0.89
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)$7.04 $81.12 $2.62
Operating Income / (Loss) ($USD Millions)$(2.26) $45.68 $(10.22)
Net Income / (Loss) ($USD Millions)$(0.41) $35.48 $(6.37)
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.01) $0.49 $(0.09)

Year-over-Year (Q3 2024 → Q3 2025)

MetricQ3 2024Q3 2025
Product Sales ($USD Millions)$8.94 $0.89
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)$10.01 $2.62
Operating Income / (Loss) ($USD Millions)$0.54 $(10.22)
Net Income / (Loss) ($USD Millions)$1.34 $(6.37)
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.02 $(0.09)

Year-to-Date (9M 2024 → 9M 2025)

Metric9M 20249M 2025
Product Sales ($USD Millions)$53.5 $85.8
Total Revenues ($USD Millions)$57.3 $90.8
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$12.9 $33.2
Income Before Taxes ($USD Millions)$17.5 $38.3
Net Income ($USD Millions)$13.5 $28.7
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.19 $0.40

Segment / Mix and KPIs

KPIQ3 2025 / YTD
Cash and Equivalents ($USD Millions)$171.96
Outstanding U.S. Gov’t Orders (IV TPOXX)$26M (target delivery 2026)
Oral TPOXX (YTD) ($USD Millions)$53
IV TPOXX (YTD) ($USD Millions)$26
International Oral TPOXX (YTD) ($USD Millions)$6
R&D Revenues (Q3) ($USD Millions)$1.73
R&D Expense (Q3) ($USD Millions)$7.05
SG&A Expense (Q3) ($USD Millions)$4.79

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
U.S. IV TPOXX delivery (outstanding orders)2026Targeted for 2026 Targeted for 2026 Maintained
PEP (Post-Exposure Prophylaxis) FDA submission2026H1 2026 target 2026 target (timing could slip with CDC delays) Maintained / timing risk
Pediatric IND submission20252H 2025 As soon as end of 2025 Refined sooner
International sales outlook2025–2026Substantial near-term sales expected Expect multiple sales in 2026 Timing shifted to 2026
Capital returnsOngoingSpecial $0.60 dividend (paid May 15, 2025) ~$230M returned since 2020; ongoing discipline Maintained policy narrative

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
U.S. procurement / RFPQ1: $94M SNS orders outstanding as of Mar 31; $53M oral + $9M IV delivered in April; $26M new IV order; $14M BARDA funding . Q2: $79.1M product sales; $27M dev funding added .Continued engagement; ~$26M IV outstanding orders to 2026 .Ongoing; visibility into 2026 deliveries
EMA mpox referral (Europe)Not highlighted in Q1 materials.Responses submitted; CHMP meeting imminent; confident in safety/efficacy .Regulatory overhang; near-term binary
PEP program (smallpox)Q1: CDC analysis targeted Q4 2025; FDA submission H1 2026 .Government shutdown may delay CDC analysis; submission still targeted for 2026 .Timing risk increased
Pediatric programQ1: IND in 2H 2025; BARDA partnership . Q2: $13M pediatric dev funding added .IND targeted as soon as end of 2025 .Slight acceleration
International salesQ1: ~$6M delivered; expectation of substantial sales near-term .Expect multiple international sales in 2026 .Timing pushed to 2026
Supply chain / manufacturing (U.S.-based)Q1: $14M funding for IV tech transfer; U.S.-based supply chain emphasized . Q2: $14M funding reiterated .All API and finished goods made in the U.S.; lowest U.S. government pricing .Consistent execution
Tariffs / macroQ1: No material impact from tariffs; monitoring .No incremental update; continued resilience implied .Stable

Management Commentary

  • Strategic posture: “We continue to advance SIGA's key priorities while generating $86 million in product revenues and $33 million in pre-tax operating income for the first nine months of 2025.”
  • U.S. alignment: “Our approach to pricing and manufacturing has historically been well aligned with the administration's priorities. The U.S. government has always received our lowest price…All of our API and finished drug products are produced in facilities located in the U.S.”
  • International outlook: “Based on our engagements this year…we expect multiple international sales in 2026.”
  • Capital discipline: “Since 2020, we've returned approximately $230 million to shareholders…all while incurring zero debt.”

Q&A Highlights

  • U.S. procurement / shutdown impact: Headcount reductions/furloughs have not materially impacted existing contracts; CDC analysis timeline for PEP could slip due to shutdown; procurement cadence driven by U.S. leadership (ASPR, HHS, DoD, Administration, Congress) .
  • Q3 revenue makeup and COGS: Product revenue reflected reimbursement/IV tech transfer; semi-fixed COGS (stability, storage, security) persist even in “quiet” quarters; margins atypical and not indicative of trend .
  • Liquidity and flexibility: Cash of ~$172M (more than 4x annual OpEx run rate) provides optionality to adapt and manage risks/opportunities .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q3 2025 appears unavailable for EPS and revenue; Actuals: Revenue $2.62M and EBITDA $(10.08)M; no consensus means or estimate counts surfaced. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
  • Implication: Analysts likely model significant lumpiness tied to government deliveries; near-term revisions should incorporate 2026 delivery timing ($26M IV) and potential EMA decision impact .
MetricQ3 2025 ConsensusQ3 2025 Actual
Revenue ($USD Millions)N/A*$2.62
EPS ($USD)N/A*$(0.09)
EBITDA ($USD Millions)N/A*$(10.08) (from S&P Global actuals)*

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Quarter dynamics: The “quiet” Q3 reflects accounting for tech transfer/reimbursement and semi-fixed COGS with low deliveries; not indicative of a structural shift per management .
  • Cash strength/optionality: $171.96M cash and no debt support continued shareholder returns and strategic flexibility while awaiting 2026 deliveries and new contracts .
  • 2026 visibility: ~$26M IV TPOXX deliveries plus management’s expectation of multiple international sales frame the medium-term revenue base .
  • Regulatory watch: EMA CHMP opinion on mpox referral is near-term binary; PEP FDA submission targeted for 2026 with possible CDC-related timing slippage; pediatric IND targeted as soon as end of 2025 .
  • U.S. positioning: Onshore manufacturing and lowest pricing to the U.S. remain strategic moats for procurement discussions; continued engagement despite shutdown noise .
  • Trading lens: Shares may be sensitive to EMA outcomes and procurement headlines; weakness on low-delivery quarters can reverse on contract flow and delivery scheduling.
  • Modeling: Expect lumpiness; anchor on YTD performance and 2026 delivery cadence; monitor opex and funded programs (BARDA) to gauge margin trajectory .